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金融数据超预期修复——6月金融数据点评
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-19 03:06
Core Viewpoint - The financial data for June indicates a significant increase in M1 and M2 growth rates, reflecting heightened liquidity and economic activity, primarily driven by government financing and seasonal factors, while consumer confidence remains cautious [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Data - In June, the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9% for the social financing stock, up from 8.7% [1][2]. - M1 growth accelerated from 2.3% in May to 4.6% in June, while M2 increased from 7.9% to 8.3%, indicating improved liquidity and economic activity [1][3]. - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 3.7% from 5.6% in the previous month, suggesting a more optimistic market outlook and enhanced production and consumption investment intentions [1][3]. Group 2: Financing Data - Government bond issuance remains robust, with net financing of 1.3548 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, contributing to a total issuance of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 65% of the annual target [2][4]. - Corporate loan demand showed signs of recovery, with new corporate loans in June totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a strong seasonal performance [4][5]. - Resident loans increased moderately, with short-term loans rising due to seasonal consumption patterns, but overall performance remains weak compared to historical averages [5].