Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - TACO expectations are rising, and most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of real estate and consumption is not yet solid. The financial data is neutral to positive for the bond market, but inflation expectations may disrupt short - term sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% (-0.61%) [10] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.21, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8928, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.35%); DR007 is 1.41, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-1.00%); R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.34%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.34%) [11] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][20] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report presents charts on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repo transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [27][28][26] 4. Spread Overview - The report shows charts on the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [43][44] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][60] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][59] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][68] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Repo rates are falling, and Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Financing Data - In February 2026, the domestic social financing scale increased by 23,792 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of +1,461 billion yuan[1] - The new RMB loans amounted to 8,484 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of +1,956 billion yuan[5] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with no change from the previous month[6] Loan and Deposit Trends - The increase in fiscal deposits decreased month-on-month, indicating a stronger push in fiscal policy[10] - New loans to non-financial companies and other sectors reached 14,900 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +4,500 billion yuan[12] - Resident short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showed negative growth, indicating a need to boost consumer demand[14] Monetary Supply - M2 grew by 9.0% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 5.9%, with the M2-M1 gap narrowing to 3.1 percentage points[15] - The central bank is expected to adjust monetary policy, focusing less on quantity targets and more on interest rate guidance[17] Interest Rate Outlook - Short-term government bond yields are nearing the lower limit of the interest rate corridor, indicating downward pressure on rates[18] - The expectation for interest rate cuts remains, supported by recent statements from the central bank regarding the flexibility of monetary policy tools[18]

Group 1: Report Core View - In February, the new social financing scale was 2.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.61 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, the same as last month and the same as the same period last year. The year-on-year increase in new social financing in February was mainly supported by corporate credit. Government bond financing increased by 140.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.03 billion yuan compared with the same period last year [3]. - In terms of short - and long - term structure, in the new credit in February, short - term loans and bill financing increased by 9.57 billion yuan. Bill financing decreased by 20.43 billion yuan year - on - year, indicating a decline in the demand for "bill padding". New short - term corporate loans were 60 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27 billion yuan, and new long - term corporate loans were 89 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35 billion yuan. Both short - term and long - term loans in the household sector showed a decreasing trend, indicating insufficient consumer and leverage - adding momentum among residents [3]. - In terms of currency, at the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 115.93 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 15.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.1%. The M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed slightly from - 6.9% in the same period last year to - 3.1%, narrowing by 1 percentage point compared with last month, reflecting an increase in capital activity [3]. Group 2: Data Comparison | Indicator | February 2026 | January 2026 | December 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock (%) | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | | Year - on - year growth rate of RMB loan balance | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.3 | | Social financing increment (billion yuan) | 237.92 | 722.08 | 220.75 | | RMB loans | 84.84 | 490.16 | 98.04 | | Foreign currency loans | - 0.35 | 4.68 | - 6.75 | | Entrusted loans | - 1.81 | - 1.92 | 3.08 | | Trust loans | 3.09 | - 0.04 | 6.79 | | Undiscounted bills | - 17.55 | 62.93 | - 14.92 | | Corporate bonds | 15.21 | 50.33 | 15.41 | | Government bonds | 140.36 | 97.64 | 68.33 | | Corporate stocks | 4.54 | 2.91 | 5.59 | | M2 (%) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | | M1 (%) | 5.9 | 4.9 | 3.8 | | M0 (%) | 14.1 | 2.7 | 10.2 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" was officially released on March 13, 2026, with 18 chapters, 16 major strategic tasks, and 109 major projects focusing on people's well - being [2] - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, with M2 growing 9% year - on - year and the social financing scale stock growing 8.2% year - on - year in February [2] - China has launched the release of over 10 million tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer reserves, and about 980,000 tons of fertilizers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, with a possible 30% - 50% reduction in global fertilizer raw material supply if shipping disruptions become normal [2] - The US military launched an air strike on Iran's oil export hub, but Iran's oil facilities are intact and exports are normal. Iran threatens to retaliate if its facilities are attacked [3] - The US Treasury temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil on March 12, and about 124 million barrels of Russian oil are at 30 sea locations. Thailand and Sri Lanka have expressed interest in buying Russian oil [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was approved by the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 12 and officially released on March 13 [2] - In the first two months, RMB loans and social financing scale increased, and M2 and social financing scale stock had year - on - year growth. Loan interest rates in February were about 3.1% [2] - China released fertilizer reserves, and there are potential risks in global fertilizer supply [2] - The US military attacked Iran's oil export hub, and Iran threatened retaliation [3] - The US relaxed sanctions on Russian oil, and some countries expressed interest in buying Russian oil [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, lithium carbonate, bottle chips, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials 2.31%, precious metals 29.44%, oilseeds 8.37%, soft commodities 2.41%, non - ferrous metals 23.24%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 8.60%, energy 7.71%, chemicals 14.40%, grains 0.97%, agricultural and sideline products 2.54% [4] Plate Position - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.82 | - 1.62 | 3.19 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.50 | - 2.72 | - 2.45 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.39 | - 0.88 | 0.85 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.43 | - 4.84 | 10.37 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.61 | - 3.59 | - 3.12 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.98 | - 4.37 | - 0.64 | | | German DAX | - 0.60 | - 7.27 | - 4.26 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 1.16 | - 8.55 | 6.91 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.43 | - 5.95 | 3.32 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.07 | - 0.16 | 0.33 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.00 | - 0.04 | 0.19 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.21 | 16.99 | 22.43 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 3.78 | 47.78 | 72.78 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.18 | - 4.93 | 16.21 | | | LME Copper | - 2.03 | - 4.22 | 1.91 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 2.47 | - 7.69 | 12.10 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.77 | 2.93 | 2.27 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | - 0.37 | 36.91 | 81.87 | [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report shows the trends of major commodities such as BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., and also includes the relationships like gold - oil ratio, copper - gold ratio, and risk premiums of different stock indices [7]

Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of February, M2 growth rate remains at 9.0%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - M1 growth rate increased to 5.9%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous value of 4.9%[1] - The M1-M2 gap narrowed to -3.1%, improving by 1 percentage point from -4.1% in the previous month[1] Factors Influencing M2 - M2 growth is supported by significant increases in corporate loans, indicating a resilient expansion of bank liabilities[1] - Government bond financing remains substantial, providing ongoing support for deposit growth[1] - Weak willingness to leverage among households and incomplete recovery in corporate risk appetite contribute to liquidity being retained within the banking system[1] M1 Dynamics - The rise in M1 reflects accelerated growth in corporate demand deposits and transactional funds, indicating improved fund turnover efficiency[2] - Increased short-term and medium-to-long-term corporate loans, along with a rise in non-discounted bank acceptance bills, suggest enhanced corporate financing and operational activity[2] - The debt reduction process marginally supports M1 growth, as funds are redirected to settle overdue corporate payments[2] Credit and Financing Overview - In February, new RMB loans totaled 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 6.0%[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 450 billion yuan, while household loans decreased by 650.7 billion yuan[4][6] - Short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for households both weakened, indicating slow recovery in consumer demand[4] Social Financing Insights - Social financing increased by 2.38 trillion yuan in February, with government bonds being the main drag on growth[8] - New RMB loans contributed significantly to social financing, with an increase of 848.4 billion yuan, up by 1,956 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Government bonds increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2.903 trillion yuan, indicating a weakening marginal support for social financing[10]

Credit Market Insights - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.4 trillion RMB, exceeding the expected 1.8 trillion RMB, but lower than the previous value of 7.2 trillion RMB[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 900 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 840 billion RMB, but significantly lower than the previous 4.7 trillion RMB[2] - Corporate loans recorded 1.49 trillion RMB, with medium to long-term loans contributing 890 billion RMB, an increase of 350 billion RMB year-on-year[2] Household Loan Trends - Household loans decreased by 650.7 billion RMB in February, a year-on-year decline of 261.6 billion RMB, indicating a weaker performance than seasonal trends[2] - Short-term household loans fell by 469.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 195.2 billion RMB, reflecting low demand[2] - Medium to long-term household loans also saw a net decrease of 181.5 billion RMB, down 66.5 billion RMB year-on-year[2] Government Financing and Economic Indicators - New social financing in February reached 23.792 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion RMB, maintaining a growth rate of 8.2%[3] - Government bond net financing was 1.4 trillion RMB, a decrease of 290.3 billion RMB year-on-year, influenced by the Spring Festival holiday[3] - The issuance of special bonds in February was 456.5 billion RMB, indicating a robust performance compared to seasonal averages[3] Monetary Supply and Market Activity - M1 growth rate increased to 5.9%, while M2 growth remained steady at 9%[4] - Fiscal deposits decreased by 350 billion RMB, a year-on-year reduction of 1.6 trillion RMB, indicating a shift in fiscal policy[4] - Non-bank deposits recorded a decrease of 1.4 trillion RMB year-on-year, reflecting a high base effect from the previous year[4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the overall credit performance was not weak. Despite a slight decline in credit volume, the financing demand of the enterprise sector met the seasonal pattern, and the long - term loans of enterprises provided obvious support. The social financing growth rate remained stable, and the M2 growth rate was mainly supported by household deposits. After excluding the M0 factor, the month - on - month growth of M1 and M2 was close to the seasonal level. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of enterprise credit repair [3][7][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit: Affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, household and short - term corporate loans were weak - **Household loans**: In February, household loans faced pressure. Short - term loans decreased by 469.3 billion yuan, 195.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly because households used year - end bonuses to repay short - term loans. Medium - and long - term loans decreased by 181.5 billion yuan, 66.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities widened, dragging down medium - and long - term loans. The post - festival property - pushing rhythm of real estate enterprises in March needs to be observed [11]. - **Enterprise long - term loans**: In February, new enterprise long - term loans reached 890 billion yuan, an increase of 350 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate rose from 8.2% to 8.5%, which may be related to the project construction at the beginning of the year and the role of policy - based financial instruments [16]. - **Enterprise short - term loans**: In February, new enterprise short - term loans were 600 billion yuan. Although it decreased seasonally compared with the previous month, it was still 270 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating the resilience of short - term business turnover demand. Bill financing decreased by 35 billion yuan, 204.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, suggesting an improvement in the structure of real - economy financing demand [18]. Social Financing: Government bonds faced a high base, and off - balance - sheet bills supported social financing - **Government bonds**: In February, new government bonds were 1.4036 trillion yuan. Due to the high base in the same period last year (1.69 trillion), the year - on - year increase was 290.3 billion yuan less. The issuance rhythm of government bonds in the first quarter was still active, but there might be high - base disturbances from February to March, and in March, it might be about 400 billion yuan less year - on - year. In April, government bonds are expected to support social financing [19]. - **Trust loans and off - balance - sheet bills**: In February, new trust loans were 30.9 billion yuan, 63.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year, reflecting the recovery of infrastructure and some real estate financing demand. Unaccepted bills decreased by 175.5 billion yuan. Due to the low base in the same period last year, the year - on - year increase was 123.2 billion yuan, and the conversion of off - balance - sheet bills to on - balance - sheet was limited, positively contributing to social financing [26]. Deposits: M1 was mainly driven by cash withdrawal, and household deposits increased year - on - year during the Spring Festival month - **M1**: After excluding the impact of Spring Festival cash withdrawal, M1 growth was close to the seasonal pattern. In February, affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival and strong household cash - withdrawal demand, M0 increased significantly. After excluding cash - withdrawal factors, the new - caliber M1 - M0 decreased by 2.56 trillion yuan in the current month, 500 billion yuan less than in February 2025. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 rose from 4.9% to 5.9%, while the year - on - year reading of M1 - M0 dropped from 5.2% to 4.8% [28]. - **Household and enterprise deposits**: Due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, household and enterprise deposits showed a seasonal "one increases while the other decreases." In February, household deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, 2.5 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, possibly due to year - end bonus payments. Enterprise deposits decreased by 2.65 trillion yuan month - on - month, 176 million yuan less year - on - year. Non - bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan month - on - month, 1.44 trillion yuan less than the same period in 2025. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 remained at 9% [32].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data released by the People's Bank of China indicates a stable growth in M2 and social financing scale, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [1][2]. Monetary Supply and Financing - As of the end of February 2026, the broad money (M2) balance reached 349.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month and 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. - The social financing scale stock was 451.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, consistent with the growth rate from the previous year [1]. - In the first two months of 2026, the net cash injection was 1.05 trillion yuan, indicating a proactive monetary policy [1]. Credit Growth and Structure - In the first two months, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, maintaining a reasonable growth trend, with the loan balance reaching 277.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [4]. - The structure of credit showed positive changes, with household loans decreasing by 194.2 billion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 5.94 trillion yuan [5]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 37.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, indicating a focus on supporting small enterprises [5]. Government Financing and Debt Issuance - Government bond financing has seen significant growth, with the balance reaching 97.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [11]. - The issuance of government bonds in the first two months of the year has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2% for national bonds and 8.5% for local government bonds [12]. - The overall financing structure shows that direct financing, including government bonds, is increasingly contributing to the social financing scale [11]. Policy Outlook - Analysts expect that monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, with potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions throughout the year [2][12]. - The collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies is anticipated to effectively support economic growth, particularly through structural policy tools aimed at expanding domestic demand and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises [13].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for February indicates a strong start to the economy, supported by high growth in monetary aggregates and proactive macroeconomic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Growth - In the first two months of the year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 9.6 trillion yuan, which is 316.2 billion yuan more than the previous year [1][2]. - As of the end of February, M2 (broad money) grew by 9% year-on-year, while M1 (narrow money) increased by 5.9%, indicating a stable financial environment [2][3]. - The government bond issuance has reached a record high, with net financing of 2.38 trillion yuan in the first two months, significantly supporting the social financing scale [2][4]. Group 2: Credit and Loan Dynamics - February saw a stable and balanced credit growth, with nearly 1 trillion yuan in new RMB loans for the month, reflecting a smooth credit issuance process [3][4]. - The structure of credit shows that medium to long-term loans for enterprises remain the main driver of credit growth, supported by ongoing fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies [3][4]. - Demand for loans is increasing due to a combination of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, alongside a one-time credit repair policy that aids individuals with damaged credit records [4][5]. Group 3: Financing Costs and Market Conditions - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in February was approximately 3.1%, which is 20 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a favorable financing environment [5]. - The government has emphasized the need to regulate credit market operations and reduce financing intermediary costs, which has led to a more transparent financing cost structure for enterprises [5]. - The "loan clarity paper" initiative by the central bank has exposed hidden costs in financing, effectively reducing the financial burden on enterprises [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from quantity-based targets to a more flexible approach that emphasizes interest rate adjustments and market-oriented mechanisms to support economic stability and growth [1][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy since 2025, introducing various measures to support stable growth in the real economy and financial markets [2]. - In early 2026, the PBOC announced adjustments to structural monetary policy tools, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in interest rates and an expansion of the support range, along with a dedicated 1 trillion yuan relending for private enterprises [2][3]. - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity, with approximately 2 trillion yuan of medium-term funds injected into the market this year [3]. Group 2: Financing Structure Changes - As of January 2026, the social financing scale grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with broad money (M2) increasing by 9%, indicating a generally loose financing condition [4]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, marking historical lows [4]. - Bond financing is becoming increasingly significant, with 2025 bond market net financing reaching 16 trillion yuan, accounting for 46% of the increase in social financing, reflecting a profound change in China's financial market structure [4]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to foster a favorable monetary environment for economic stability and reasonable price recovery [5]. - The PBOC will gradually reduce the emphasis on quantity-based intermediary targets in its monetary policy, focusing more on interest rate adjustments as a primary tool for economic management [6]. - The PBOC is committed to enhancing the transparency of monetary policy and improving the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms [7]. Group 4: Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC maintains that there is no necessity or intention to devalue the currency for trade advantages, emphasizing the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation and the importance of maintaining the yuan's stability [8].