期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 25 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：多头排列震荡上行 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金面延续偏松 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应整体宽松 | 盘面持续承压 7 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续上涨 | 国内糖价跟随 7 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹 9 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 生猪：供应仍有压力 | 现货整体震荡 11 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面偏弱震荡 11 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价有所回落 12 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 13 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 14 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 15 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，震荡运行 15 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 16 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 17 | | 金银：初请数据叠加节前获利了结，金银高位冲高回落 18 | | --- | | ...

固 定 收 益 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 10 证 固定收益周报 短债利率下行，超长债波动幅度较大 ――利率债周报 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 12 月 19 日 统计区间：2025 年 12 月 12 日至 2025 年 12 月 18 日 重要事件点评 金融、经济和财政数据：11 月企业和居民信贷数据依然不佳，工增、固 投和社零同比增速也有一定放缓，和 10 月数据特征相近，增值税和企业 所得税收入累计同比涨幅收窄也与 10-11 月数据降温有关。展望来看，未 来的积极因素在于政策性金融工具对信贷的撬动，以及年末财政"赶进 度"集中支出，有望为 2026 年打下良好开局。 资金价格：央行投放跨年资金 统计期内，央行超量 2000 亿元续作 6 个月买断式逆回购，并开展 1000 亿元 14 天逆回购操作呵护跨年资金面，DR014 和 R014 在 12 月 18 日分 别上行 10bp 和 6bp，DR001 和 DR007 保持平稳，同业存单收益率小幅 回落，符合年末存单收益率下行的季节性特 ...

编者按： "十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求明年金融总 量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。社会融资规模、广义货币供应量（M2）是观测金融总 量的主要指标，也是当前我国货币政策主要的中间变量。尽管近年来央行多次强调将不断优化货币政策 中间变量，淡化对数量目标的关注，把金融总量更多作为观测性、参考性、预期性指标，但短期看，推 动社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，依然是观测金融支持实体 经济是否"给力"的重要参考。 今年以来，社会融资规模、货币供应量增速水平始终高于名义经济增速，明年仍有基础继续保持平稳增 长。基础来自哪里？来自继续实施更加积极的财政政策，来自推动投资止跌回稳，来自居民消费需求持 续恢复，来自直接融资市场迅速发展。 货币政策工具也不只是降准降息，近年来货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋 合理。长期有降准、国债买卖工具，中期有中期借贷便利（MLF）、买断式逆回购操作等工具，短期 有公开市场7天期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购等工具。鉴于新的一年国债、地方政府专项债券等政府 债券将保持较大发行规模，央 ...

一、11月末广义货币余额同比增长8% 11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额112.89万亿元，同比 增长4.9%。流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同比增长10.6%。前十一个月净投放现金9175亿元。 二、前十一个月社会融资规模增量同比多3.99万亿元 初步统计，前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。从主要分项 看，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.93万亿元，同比少增1.28万亿元；未贴现的银行承兑汇票增加 1605亿元，同比多增3568亿元；企业债券净融资2.24万亿元，同比多3125亿元；政府债券净融资13.15万 亿元，同比多3.61万亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资4204亿元，同比多1788亿元。 三、11月末社会融资规模存量同比增长8.5% 11月份同业拆借加权平均利率为1.42%，比上年同期低0.13个百分点。质押式回购加权平均利率为 1.44%，比上年同期低0.15个百分点。 七、与上年末比，贷款市场报价利率下降 四、前十一个月人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元 11月末，本外币贷款余额274.84万亿 ...

（原标题：如何灵活高效运用多种货币政策工具？） 今年以来，社会融资规模、货币供应量增速水平始终高于名义经济增速，明年仍有基础继续保持平稳增 长。基础来自哪里？来自继续实施更加积极的财政政策，来自推动投资止跌回稳，来自居民消费需求持 续恢复，来自直接融资市场迅速发展。 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 孙璐璐 为促进价格水平回升，保持低息环境是各国央行的主流操作。对我国而言，降低利率是可选项，但相比 之下，另一个"必做题"或许更为重要——在发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能的同时，持续畅通 货币政策传导机制。近年来，中国人民银行在畅通货币政策的传导效率上，着力推动存量政策持续见 效，落实好存续的各类结构性货币政策工具，盘活低效存量金融资源；积极规范市场行为，包括整治金 融业"内卷式"竞争，治理资金空转、手工补息等行为，提升金融机构的自主理性定价能力等。这些着力 畅通利率传导机制的改革在明年有望持续推进，从而促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"是今年中央经济工作会议的新提法。在 上述总体目标下，明年如何灵活高效地运用多种货币政策工具备受外界关注。 "十五五"开局之年，适 ...

Economic Indicators - As of November, M0 balance reached 13.74 trillion yuan, increasing by approximately 0.19 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%[2] - M1 balance stood at 112.89 trillion yuan, up by 0.89 trillion yuan from the previous month, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points compared to last month[2] - M2 balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.86 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Financing Trends - The total social financing stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[2] - New RMB loans in November amounted to 405.3 billion yuan, while new foreign currency loans were -22.2 billion yuan, totaling 383.1 billion yuan in new loans, which is 90.1 billion yuan less than the previous year[2] - New corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan, and new corporate stock financing was 34.2 billion yuan, totaling 451.1 billion yuan in corporate direct financing, an increase of 168.3 billion yuan year-on-year[2] Deposit Growth - Corporate deposit growth slowed to 3.63% in November, down from 3.79% the previous month, with a total corporate deposit balance of 79.34 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.65 trillion yuan[2] - Resident deposit growth decreased to 9.56%, down 0.13 percentage points from the previous month, with a total resident deposit balance of 163.31 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.67 trillion yuan[2] - Non-bank financial institutions' deposits grew by 0.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.09%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points from the previous month[2]

家办一线大事速览 ~ 2025 | 12月15日 星期一 PART 1. 术系 PART 2. 传 爵 PART 3. 教育 PART 4. 17年 广 · 上海信托完成全国首单遗嘱信托全流程登记 爱马仕家族Krefeld办公室设立Breithorn Holding, 扩大投资版图 · 全国首个"信托登记+遗产管理人"模式在济南落地 · 家族信托业务指引即将出台 · 美联储宣布降息25个基点 香港2025年上半年超级富豪人数飙升22.9%至1.7万人,增幅冠绝全球 . 中国经济年会:今年我国经济总量预计达140万亿元左右 . · 《2025中国高净值人群金融投资需求与趋势白皮书》发布 · 央行:前11个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元 甲骨文创始人单日财富蒸发近250亿美元 . 沪市ETF规模突破4.1万亿元,年内增长50% . · 安联报告:过去20年中国人均金融资产购买力增长近10倍,增速领先 · 六家国有大行陆续开启2025年中期分红的派发工作,合计超2000亿元 财政部将开展2025年到期续作特别国债发行 · 英国政府将征收英格兰高校"留学生税" · 《2025年门户开放报告》:赴美国际学生再 ...

Group 1: Financing Trends - In November, social financing (社融) increased by nearly 160 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate direct financing and off-balance-sheet financing[3] - Corporate direct financing rose by over 100 billion yuan, primarily due to the expansion of the sci-tech bond market, which saw net financing of 182.3 billion yuan in November, an increase of 100 billion yuan year-on-year[15] - Off-balance-sheet financing also increased by over 100 billion yuan, largely attributed to the upcoming implementation of revised trust company regulations[15] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Dynamics - In November, RMB loans decreased by 190 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak demand for loans and a supply-side contraction due to financial institutions' "anti-involution" measures[4] - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 100 billion yuan, indicating a rise in short-term operational funding needs, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 40 billion yuan year-on-year[22] - Resident deposits showed a significant reduction, with both household and corporate deposits declining year-on-year, indicating a trend of deleveraging among residents[26] Group 3: Monetary Supply Metrics - M2 growth rate fell to 8% in November, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points[26] - The decline in M1 and M2 growth rates is attributed to reduced "loan creation deposits" and limited fiscal fund injections, with non-bank financial institution deposits also showing a year-on-year decrease[26] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The overall financial data for November indicates persistent weakness in private sector financing demand, with potential positive impacts from new policy financial tools expected to gradually materialize[6] - The high base effect from government bond financing is likely to continue to weigh on social financing growth, which may stabilize or slightly decline in the near term[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could significantly impact market financing demand and liquidity conditions[7]

Group 1: Debt Market News - The central bank conducted a small-scale net withdrawal in the open market on December 12, with a total of 120.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 19.3 billion yuan for the day [9][10] - The bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with yields on major government bonds rising across the board, particularly in the long end, as market concerns about large bond supply and profit-taking pressure emerged [12] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 2.75 basis points to 1.8425%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 3.35 basis points to 1.9165% [12] Group 2: Financial Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Administration issued a new set of guidelines to enhance the supervision and management of commercial bank custody businesses, aiming to promote standardized and healthy development in this sector [5] - The central bank emphasized the need for effective implementation of monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts, to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3][4] Group 3: Corporate Announcements - Vanke announced that the proposals for extending the maturity of its "22 Vanke MTN004" bond were not effectively passed during the bondholders' meeting [15] - China Baoan announced its participation in the substantive merger and restructuring of the Shanshan Group and its wholly-owned subsidiary, seeking investors for this process [17] - Renfu Pharmaceutical received an administrative penalty notice from the Hubei Securities Regulatory Bureau, leading to the implementation of other risk warnings on its stock [20]

截至12月6日当周，美国初请失业金人数增加4.4万人，升至23.6万人。这一幅度刷新2020年3月以来的峰值，而此前一周该数据刚刚触及三年多以来的最低 点。这一数值超出市场预期的22万。 据了解，初请失业金人数通常在节假日前后波动较大，预计这一趋势将持续至年底。不过，本周公布的数据已处于2025年以来的高位区间。近几周，百事可 乐(PEP.US)、惠普(HPQ.US)等企业相继公布裁员计划，10月全美裁员规模更是创下2023年初以来的新高。 久期财经讯，12月12日，据悉，美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，在感恩节假期当周初请失业金人数大幅回落之后，上周该数据出现激增。 近几个月来，劳动力市场的疲软预期持续压制消费者信心。密歇根大学12月初步调查结果显示，多数受访者预计未来一年美国失业率将走高。 美联储官员在周三召开的议息会议上，连续第三次宣布降息，以支撑美联储主席鲍威尔口中"逐渐降温"的劳动力市场。尽管相较于9月的经济预期，美联储 并未上调明年失业率预测值，但鲍威尔直言，当前就业市场面临"显著"下行风险。 热点消息 每日发行总结 今日，一级市场无发行。 每日评级总结 今日，共1家公司评级获机构更新： 数据来源： ...