1月经济前瞻：开年动能仍待修复 1月物价预测如何？ 一、1月CPI同比增速0.6%（前值0.8%），对应1月环比0.4%（前值0.2%） 二、2026年有25-50BP降准、10BP降息的总量性宽松操作，节奏上预计小步慢跑，频度不会太高 三、结构性政策工具也将持续发力，同步强化信贷的结构性引导，扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等领域是重 点支持方向 1月经济前瞻：开年动能仍待修复 1月物价预测如何？ 一、1月CPI同比增速0.6%（前值0.8%），对应1月环比0.4%（前值0.2%） 二、工业品价格方面，1月PPI同比增速为-1.8%（前值-1.9%），对应环比-0.3%（前值0.2%） 1月金融预测如何？ 一、1月人民币贷款新增5万亿元，同比少增1300亿元，对应增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至6.2% 二、1月社融新增6.9万亿，同比少增约980亿元，增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至8.1% 三、1月M2增速为8.5%，持平上月；1月M1增速为2.2%，前值为3.8%，回落1.6个百分点 后续货币政策预测如何？ 一、经济增长和促进物价合理回升将是2026年货币政策重要考量贯穿全年，同时也会兼顾金融稳定 二、工业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

研究所 炒作抑制 股指震荡债回升 ----国信期货金融周报 2026-2-2 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 研究所 上证50、沪深 300高位震荡。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 中证500高位回 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 落。 国债期货小幅反 弹。 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 上证50成交额、 沪深300成交额 上升。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500成交额， 中证1000成交额上 升。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1.2融 ...

A:了解M1和M2，首先要知道什么是货币供应量。货币供应量是某一时点承担流通和支付手段的金融工 具的总和，是金融统计和分析的重要指标。我国将货币供应量分为M0、M1、M2。 最新金融数据显示，2025年12月末，广义货币（M2）余额340.29万亿元，同比增长8.5%；狭义货币 （M1）余额115.51万亿元，同比增长3.8%。M2与M1增速之间的"剪刀差"成为市场关注的话题。那么， M1和M2到底是什么？如何看待"剪刀差"？一起来看本期快问快答↓ Q M1和M2是什么？ M2与M1增加代表了什么？ A: 通常来说，M1数值增加，意味着居民和企业拿在手里准备随时花出去的钱变多了，老百姓消费能力 增强，市场交易活跃，企业有意愿扩大生产。 M2是经济活动中重要的信号之一，其规模增加意味着全社会货币供应量的增加，流动性更加充裕，社 会经济活动更加活跃。 Q 如何看待M2与M1增速的"剪刀差"？ A: M2与M1增速的"剪刀差"一直是市场关注的焦点之一。"剪刀差"如果扩大，说明企业在获得资金后， 往往选择存进银行，而不去投资和使用，这在一定程度上反映了经济下行压力下，企业投资意愿下降。 而去年以来，"剪刀差"的收窄则 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decline in the growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.3% year-on-year as of December, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [6][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in financing between households and enterprises, with household loans decreasing by 916 billion yuan in December, while enterprise loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan [15][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates on January 15, 2026, indicating a focus on maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments [20][4]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds [9][6]. - The total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [9][6]. Loan Data - As of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [14][3]. - The report notes that short-term loans for households decreased by 1.023 trillion yuan, while medium- to long-term loans increased by 100 billion yuan [15][10]. Monetary Aggregates - M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while M1's growth rate was 3.8%, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [19][4]. - New RMB deposits in December amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [19][4]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, supported by strong risk compensation capabilities [20][4]. - The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term capital will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which will help solidify the valuation floor [20][4].

Group 1: Credit Performance - Corporate credit outperformed household credit in December 2025, with significant increases in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the same period in 2024[4] - Household sector continued to deleverage, with a net repayment in short-term loans and only 10 billion yuan in new medium-to-long-term loans, primarily due to poor real estate sales and decreased willingness to consume[4][21] - Overall, the total social financing scale increased by 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 35.6 trillion yuan for the entire year[13] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate improved to 8.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 8% in November[13] - Non-bank financial institutions saw better deposit performance compared to 2024, influenced by regulatory changes in interbank deposit rates[5][23] - New household deposits exceeded those of 2024, indicating limited scale of deposit migration[5][24] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Future positive factors include continued support from policy financial tools, proactive government bond financing, and structural interest rate cuts, with expectations for social financing growth to stabilize or slightly increase[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[7][30]

Group 1: Loan Growth - In December 2025, new short-term loans for enterprises increased by CNY 370 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 390 billion, significantly exceeding seasonal expectations[12] - New medium and long-term loans for enterprises amounted to CNY 330 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 290 billion, showing improvement partly due to a low base in 2024[12] - The overall new social financing in December was CNY 22,075 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 6,462 billion, aligning with seasonal patterns[5] Group 2: Deposit Growth - M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[26] - New RMB deposits in December reached CNY 16,800 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 30,800 billion, indicating a reverse seasonal growth[26] - Non-bank deposits contributed significantly to the deposit increase, with a net decrease of CNY 330 billion in December, which was a year-on-year improvement of CNY 28,400 billion[28] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - It is expected that enterprise credit will improve at the beginning of 2026, driven by policies aimed at stabilizing investment[29] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy effects, uncertainties in investment behavior, and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a marginal recovery in medium to long-term loans, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy measures being released [1] - Social financing (社融) has shown a year-on-year decrease, with a month-on-month decline in growth rate. In December, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan [5] - The growth of RMB loans and corporate bonds has made a significant positive contribution to social financing increment, with RMB loans increasing by 975.7 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 135.5 billion yuan [5] - Corporate loans have shown a notable increase, with a total increase of 1.1 trillion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 580 billion yuan, indicating a marginal recovery in financing demand from the real economy [5] - The M2 growth rate has risen, with M1 and M2 increasing by 3.8% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The report suggests that the government bond's contribution to social financing has weakened towards the end of the year, while RMB credit shows signs of marginal improvement, primarily supported by corporate loans [5] Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, the total social financing stock increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2 percentage points [5] - The structure of corporate loans has improved, with medium to long-term loans increasing by 330 billion yuan and short-term loans by 370 billion yuan [5] Loan Data - As of the end of December, the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 6.4% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [5] - The demand for loans from the household sector remains weak, with a decrease of 916 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 4.416 trillion yuan [5] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the continued attractiveness of the banking sector's dividend value, recommending specific banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [5]

Group 1 - The central bank released financial statistics for 2026, indicating that the total social financing scale increased by 35.6 trillion yuan in 2025, which is 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1][5] - As of the end of December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, while the M1 balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year [1][5] - The year-on-year growth of RMB loans was 6.2%, and deposits increased by 8.7% [1][5] Group 2 - M1 growth is slowing down, with a decrease from 4.9% to 3.8% by the end of December, while M2 growth rebounded to 8.5% [1][5] - The M2-M1 differential increased to 4.7%, indicating a decline in corporate demand for current deposits and an increase in time deposits, reflecting a potential decrease in economic activity [1][5] - The growth rate of social financing stock fell to 8.3% by the end of December, maintaining a historical low, with government bonds significantly outpacing corporate bonds in the financing structure [1][5] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the rates of structural monetary policy tools such as re-lending and rediscounting [2][6] - This move aims to lower the cost for financial institutions to obtain funds from the central bank, guiding credit flow to key areas for economic structural transformation [2][6] - There is potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year [2][6]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has announced an increase in structural monetary policy tools while indicating that there is still room for both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, maintaining a cautious approach towards broad monetary easing [2] - Structural interest rate cuts are aimed at reducing costs for banks and creating conditions for future policy rate reductions, with a potential RRR cut expected in the first quarter [2][3] Financial Data Overview - In December, the year-on-year growth of M1 continued to decline, while M2 growth rebounded, primarily due to increased fiscal spending at year-end and a shift of government deposits to residents and enterprises [2][9] - Social financing in December showed a decrease of 646.2 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bonds being the main drag on this decline [6] Loan Dynamics - December saw a total of 9.1 trillion yuan in new RMB loans, with improvements mainly from the corporate sector, while the residential sector continued to show weakness with a reduction of 916 billion yuan in loans [8] - The corporate sector's loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 370 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 330 billion yuan [8] Structural Policy Adjustments - The central bank has implemented a series of structural monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.25% reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in specific loan quotas for agriculture, small enterprises, and technological innovation [3] - A new 1 trillion yuan loan quota has been established for private enterprises, along with expanded support for carbon reduction and service consumption [3] Deposit Trends - In December, M2 year-on-year growth rebounded to 8.5%, with a notable increase in household deposits by 2.6 trillion yuan, while corporate deposits saw a rise of 1.2 trillion yuan [9] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates widened to 4.7%, indicating a decrease in the liquidity of funds [9]