国债期货日报 | 2026-03-25 TACO预期升温，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏 观政策环境；2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息 的空间；2026年政府工作报告提到赤字率拟按4%左右安排，赤字规模5.89万亿元。一般公共预算支出规模将首次 达到30万亿元、比上年增加约1.27万亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元。（2）通胀：2月CPI同比上升1.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：1-2月财政运行平稳开局，一般公共预算收入同比增长0.7%、支出同比增长3.6%，财政前置发 力特征明显。收入端企业相关税收表现好于居民部门，增值税增长4.7%，但消费税、个人所得税回落，反映居民 消费偏弱；政府性基金收入受土地出让拖累同比下降16%，支出端因专项债发行加快同比增长16%。整体看，经济 仍呈"供强需弱"格局，地产与消费修复基础尚不牢固。对债市而言， ...

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of corporate medium and long-term loans remains to be observed, with improvements in February attributed to a more balanced credit issuance rhythm in January and a low base effect from early debt resolution last year [6][43]. Financial Data Summary - On March 13, the central bank released China's financial data for February 2026, showing a year-on-year decline in credit balance growth by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%, while the stock of social financing remained flat at 8.2%, and M1 increased by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9% [5][10]. - In February, new credit totaled 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with household loans down by 261.6 billion yuan and non-bank loans down by 294.9 billion yuan. In contrast, corporate medium and long-term loans increased by 350 billion yuan [8][45]. - Social financing saw a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan in February, primarily driven by a 195.6 billion yuan increase in RMB loans, while government bonds decreased by 290.3 billion yuan due to a high base effect from the same period in 2025 [16][28]. - M1 improved, likely due to the impact of the Spring Festival on household demand deposits, with a notable increase in consumption during the holiday period further amplifying this effect. The growth in household demand deposits is expected to be a key driver for M1 improvement [18][44]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Future monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and efficient, with potential incremental policies to be introduced in response to economic conditions. The government work report emphasizes the flexible use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and optimize structural tools [7][24]. Regular Monitoring - In February, the structure of deposits showed that household deposits increased by 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits decreased by 1.76 trillion yuan and fiscal deposits decreased by 1.6076 trillion yuan [34][45]. - The M2 growth rate remained stable at 9.0%, indicating a steady financial environment supported by increased fiscal spending and a significant drop in fiscal deposits [34][44].

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Growth - In February 2026, the social financing scale increased by approximately 2.38 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.2%, consistent with the previous month[3] - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by real entity credit and undiscounted bank acceptance bills, while government bond financing saw a year-on-year decline[3] Group 2: Corporate and Household Credit Dynamics - New corporate short-term loans amounted to 600 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 270 billion yuan, supported by seasonal demand for operational funds due to pre-holiday wage distributions[4] - New corporate medium- to long-term loans reached 890 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 350 billion yuan, driven by policy financial tools and accelerated project funding[4] - Household short-term loans decreased by 469.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 195.2 billion yuan, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting demand[5] - Household medium- to long-term loans fell by 181.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.5 billion yuan, indicating ongoing weakness in household credit largely due to insufficient real estate demand[5] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M1 growth rate improved to 5.9%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, supported by increased corporate financing demand and a favorable exchange rate[6] - M2 growth rate remained stable at 9.0%, with ample liquidity in the banking system and increased fiscal spending providing support[6] - The corporate sector is expected to continue playing a stabilizing role in credit expansion, with improved PPI and industrial prices likely to enhance corporate profitability and capital expenditure[7] - Risks include potential macroeconomic underperformance, weaker-than-expected real estate sales, and geopolitical uncertainties[7]

Loan and Financing Data - In February 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 900 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion[1] - New social financing in February was 2.38 trillion, an increase of 146.9 billion year-on-year[7] - Corporate loans increased significantly by 450 billion, driven by investment policies and high export growth[5] Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - As of the end of February, M2 growth rate was 9.0%, remaining at a high level compared to the past two years[8] - M1 growth rate rose to 5.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The increase in M2 was supported by a significant rise in fiscal spending, with fiscal deposits decreasing by approximately 1.6 trillion[8] Economic Policy and Outlook - The government work report emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with expected interest rate cuts of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points throughout the year[2] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, alongside other liquidity injection measures[11] - Overall, inflation is projected to remain low in 2026, allowing for sufficient adjustment space in monetary policy[12]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The new social financing in February 2026 exceeded expectations, with the new social financing reaching 2.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 146.1 billion yuan, and the stock of social financing increased by 8.2% year - on - year, remaining flat compared with the previous value. The new social financing has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months. The new loans on the corporate side drove the year - on - year growth of RMB loans by 30.0% [4][5]. - The new loans of enterprises and residents showed a differentiated trend, with a strong corporate side and a weak resident side, and the degree of differentiation deepened. The new loans of residents decreased by 26.16 billion yuan year - on - year, while those of enterprises increased by 45 billion yuan year - on - year [6]. - The M2 year - on - year remained flat, the M1 year - on - year increased, and the scissors gap between M1 and M2 narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating that the economic activities such as enterprise production and operation and consumption investment are continuously warming up [7]. - In March, the credit financing demand of real - economy enterprises is expected to pick up marginally. The policy dividends of the Two Sessions and the start of major "15th Five - Year Plan" projects will drive the steady release of supporting financing demand, and the financial aggregate is expected to continue to grow reasonably [7]. - The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2.1 2026 February Financial Data Overview - The central bank announced the February 2026 financial data. The new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, the stock of social financing increased by 8.2% year - on - year, remaining flat compared with the previous value. As of February 2026, the cumulative increase in the social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 14.1% year - on - year. In the first two months, 1.05 trillion yuan of cash was net - injected [4]. 2.2 February Financial Data Focus Points 2.2.1 New Social Financing - The new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 146.1 billion yuan, higher than the average of the same period from 2021 - 2025. The new social financing exceeded market expectations. The median of the forecasts of 13 institutions was 1.85 trillion yuan, and the average was 1.84 trillion yuan. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the issuance speed of government bonds slowed down, and the net financing of government bonds decreased year - on - year. Driven by policy - based financial instruments and two policy measures of the central bank at the beginning of the year, the new loans on the corporate side drove the year - on - year growth of RMB loans by 30.0% [5]. 2.2.2 Differentiated Trend of New Loans of Enterprises and Residents - The new loans of enterprises and residents showed a differentiated trend. The new loans of residents decreased by 26.16 billion yuan year - on - year, with both short - term and long - term loans decreasing year - on - year. The decrease in short - term loans may reflect weak demand on the resident side and more cautious consumption, and may also be related to the repayment of loans with year - end funds. The decrease in long - term loans may be related to the continued downturn in the real estate market. The new loans of enterprises increased by 45 billion yuan year - on - year, with both short - term and long - term loans increasing year - on - year, and the bill financing decreased by 20.43 billion yuan year - on - year. The new loans on the corporate side did not rely on bill padding. The central bank announced two policy measures at the beginning of the year, which, combined with the support of financial instruments at the end of 2025, led to the recovery of the issuance of long - term corporate loans [6]. 2.2.3 Changes in M1 and M2 - In February, M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point higher than the previous value; M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, remaining flat compared with the previous value. The continuous rise of M1 reflects the increase in the activation degree of funds and is also related to residents withdrawing cash during the Spring Festival. The absolute value of the scissors gap between M1 and M2 narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating the continuous activation of residents' deposits and the continuous warming up of economic activities such as enterprise production and operation and consumption investment [7]. 2.2.4 Outlook for March - In March, with the significant acceleration of the post - holiday resumption of production on the production side, the credit financing demand of real - economy enterprises is expected to show a marginal warming trend. The policy dividends of the Two Sessions and the start of major "15th Five - Year Plan" projects will drive the steady release of supporting financing demand, and the financial aggregate is expected to continue to grow reasonably [7]. 2.3 Bond Market View - The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5%. The reasons include: the falsification of the不及 - expected economic recovery, the acceleration of the cycle recovery with the possible wide credit and wide finance in early 2026; if there is a wide - money policy, the yield may decline briefly and then rise; inflation is expected to rebound, and attention should be paid to whether the PPI month - on - month can remain positive; if the inflation month - on - month continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightening funds, and the short - term bond yield will also rise; real estate is a lagging indicator this time and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [7].

Financing Demand - In February, new social financing (社融) reached 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.1 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 1.84 trillion yuan[3] - New RMB loans amounted to 848.4 billion yuan, up 195.6 billion yuan from the previous year, but down 4.05 trillion yuan from January[3] - The government bond financing was weak, with a net increase of only 1.4 trillion yuan in February[3] Monetary Supply - M2 growth was 9.0% year-on-year, consistent with January's growth rate, while M1 increased by 5.9%, up 1.0 percentage points from January[3] - M0 saw a significant increase of 14.1% year-on-year, rising by 11.4 percentage points from January[3] - The central bank injected 779.5 billion yuan into the market in February[3] Deposit Trends - February saw a total of 1.17 trillion yuan in new deposits, down 3.25 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - The increase in deposits was primarily driven by a rise in household deposits, which increased by 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - Corporate deposits decreased by 2.65 trillion yuan compared to the previous year[3] Loan Dynamics - Financial institutions issued 900 billion yuan in new loans in February, with corporate loans accounting for 1.49 trillion yuan, indicating strong demand[3] - However, household loans were weak, with a decrease of 650.7 billion yuan in new household loans compared to the previous year[3] - The government aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices[3]

事件： 3月13日，央行公布2026年2月中国金融数据， 信贷余额同比增速下行0.1个百分点6.0%，社融存 量同比持平于8.2%，M1同比上行1.0个百分点至5.9%。 核心观点：企业中 长贷 的可持续性仍有待观察 2月企业中长期贷款同比改善，或源于两大因素： 一是1月信贷投放节奏更为均衡；二是去年初化债靠前 发力形成的低基数效应。当月新增信贷同比少增1100亿元，主要受居民贷款、非银贷款同比少增拖累， 企业中长期贷款则同比多增3500亿元。后续企业中长期贷款增长的可持续性，仍需观察需求修复斜率与 上游成本上升速率。 社融开年连续两个月同比多增，支撑其增长的核心项由1月的政府债券切换为2月的人民币贷款。 2月社 融同比多增1461亿元，其中人民币贷款同比多增1956亿元，为主要拉动项。1月支撑社融的政府债券2月 同比少增2903亿元，主要受2025年同期高基数影响。财政预算中，2026年政府债净融资增长有限，后续 其对社融增速的支持力度或将趋弱。 2月M1改善，或源于春节错位下居民活期存款的增长，而春节消费超预期释放，进一步放大该效应。 从 历史数据看，春节月份居民活期存款易走高，或与表外资产回表、企业发放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of corporate medium and long-term loans remains to be observed, with improvements in February attributed to a more balanced credit issuance rhythm in January and a low base effect from last year [3][41]. Financial Data Summary - On March 13, the central bank released February 2026 financial data, showing a year-on-year decline in credit balance growth by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%, while social financing stock remained flat at 8.2%, and M1 increased by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9% [2][8]. - In February, new credit totaled 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with household loans down by 261.6 billion yuan and non-bank loans down by 294.9 billion yuan. In contrast, corporate loans increased by 450 billion yuan, with medium and long-term loans up by 350 billion yuan [5][43]. - Social financing in February increased by 23,792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,461 billion yuan, primarily driven by a 1,956 billion yuan increase in RMB loans [5][26]. - M2 growth remained stable at 9.0%, while new M1 rose by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9%. The structure of deposits showed a year-on-year increase of 25,000 billion yuan in household deposits, while corporate deposits decreased by 17,605 billion yuan [5][32]. Future Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to become more flexible and efficient, with potential incremental policies to be introduced in response to economic conditions. The government work report emphasizes the flexible use of various policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and optimize structural tools [4][22]. - The fluctuations in commodity prices have not yet fully manifested in their impact on the economy, suggesting that policy measures may be adjusted to support stable macroeconomic operations [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector [4] Core Insights - The financial data for February 2026 shows a neutral overall outlook, with M1 growth exceeding expectations. The social financing (社融) stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 2.38 trillion yuan, which is 0.15 trillion yuan more than the previous year. The main contributors to this increase were loans, discounted bank acceptance bills, and trust loans [6][7] - The report indicates that credit growth is showing a positive trend, with social financing credit increasing by 0.20 trillion yuan year-on-year. Excluding the impact of bills, the credit growth is 0.40 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy credit supply to the real economy [6][7] - Government debt increased by 1.40 trillion yuan in February, but this was a decrease of 0.29 trillion yuan year-on-year. The report notes that fiscal deposits decreased by 0.35 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending [6][7] - The report highlights a decrease in corporate deposits by 2.98 trillion yuan, attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, while household deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in high-interest deposits [6][7] - M1 growth continues to show an upward trend, with a significant contribution from fiscal efforts amounting to 1.75 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.42 trillion yuan [6][7] Summary by Sections Social Financing - The social financing stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 2.38 trillion yuan, which is 0.15 trillion yuan more than the previous year [6][9] - The credit growth under social financing increased by 0.20 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a notable increase in corporate medium and long-term loans [6][9] Credit - Financial institutions' loans increased by 0.90 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 0.11 trillion yuan year-on-year. The report notes a continued reduction in bill financing by 35 billion yuan [6][9] - The report anticipates that the credit supply will align with targets, with expectations of a year-on-year decrease in credit volume [6][7] Government Debt - Government debt increased by 1.40 trillion yuan in February, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.29 trillion yuan. The fiscal effort for the first two months of the year is consistent with the previous year [6][7] Deposits - Corporate deposits decreased by 2.98 trillion yuan, while household deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in deposit behavior due to the Spring Festival timing [6][7] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, but this was a decrease of 1.44 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][7] M1 Growth - M1 growth continues to rise, with fiscal efforts contributing significantly to this increase. The report notes that M1 growth is expected to face downward pressure in the future [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that corporate medium and long-term loans are the main contributors to credit growth, with a seasonal decline in loan issuance in February but a narrowing of the year-on-year decrease, primarily driven by the corporate sector [2][4][7] - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.38 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan, supported mainly by RMB loans and undiscounted acceptances [4][8] - The government bond net financing reached 1.4 trillion yuan in February, but showed a year-on-year decrease of 290.3 billion yuan, indicating a shift from growth to decline in direct financing [4][8] Group 2 - The M2 growth rate remained stable at 9% in February, supported by a significant net financing from government bonds and a strong RMB, which contributed to domestic liquidity [3][8] - The increase in corporate loans was substantial, with corporate medium and long-term loans rising by 890 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 350 billion yuan [7][8] - The M1 growth rate rebounded to 5.9%, indicating improved liquidity conditions, while the difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.1% [3][8]