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孙加滢:把握资源品利润爆发期 布局制造业出海大趋势
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-08-27 09:59
Group 1 - The current market discussion around AI computing power requires further observation, with a preference for investing in areas with clear future profit potential [1] - From the perspective of the Kondratiev wave cycle, the best-performing sectors from 2021 to 2024 are upstream resource products, such as Zijin Mining, PetroChina, Sinopec, and coal [1] - The current cycle has been extended to 6-7 years, indicating that upstream resource products will still have explosive profit potential until 2026-2027 [1] Group 2 - By 2027-2028, Chinese manufacturing enterprises are expected to generate excess returns, increasing the number of Chinese companies in the Fortune Global 500 from 100 to 300 [2] - The process of competing globally will take 3-5 years for companies to establish overseas production capacity and marketing systems, which is why manufacturing was not prioritized post-2020 [2] - The recent strong performance of major banks suggests a potential expectation of financial capital output, possibly leading to a second expansion of bank balance sheets [2] Group 3 - The past 2-3 years have seen significant capital construction by many excellent manufacturing companies overseas, which are about to enter a harvest period [2] - The potential for a financial expansion similar to the U.S. Marshall Plan could create a large offshore financial market [2] - The opportunities for ordinary investors lie in high-quality assets from "catch-up countries," particularly index stocks, contributing to the potential for a significant bull market [2]