1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, but the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. In terms of fundamentals, the output of rebar decreased slightly, and the demand picked up after the holiday, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, the overall demand recovery was still insufficient. The output of hot-rolled coil continued to decline, and the demand also increased after the holiday, but the inventory remained at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions were still prominent. The spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil further narrowed. At the macro level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to make an overall plan for the economic development in the next five years, which is of great guiding significance for the macroeconomic trend. In general, the current steel demand is weak. Although the previous remarks of Trump caused short-term disturbances to commodity prices, the medium - and long - term trend of steel prices has not changed fundamentally. In the short term, the pattern of weak real steel demand is still difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the intensity and direction of policy introduction around the Fourth Plenary Session [10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The cumulative output was 89.3101 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.99%. The long - process output was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.81%. The short - process output was 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.97%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.4095 million tons, and the hot - season hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons [6]. - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (previous value: 91%), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53% (previous value: 51%) [55]. - **Regional production volume**: The rebar output in the northern region was 420,000 tons (previous value: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 780,000 tons (previous value: 810,000 tons). The output in East China was 810,000 tons, in Jiangsu was 350,000 tons, in Shandong was 80,000 tons, and in Anhui was 130,000 tons. The output in Guangdong was 210,000 tons, and in Guangxi was 60,000 tons [63][66][69] 3.2 Demand - side - **Consumption volume**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2 million tons (previous value: 1.46 million tons), a week - on - week increase of 50.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The cumulative demand was 86.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.2 million tons, and in East China was 750,000 tons. In the southwest, it was 360,000 tons, in South China was 330,000 tons, in North China was 150,000 tons, and in Central China was 190,000 tons. In the northeast, it was 140,000 tons, and in the northwest was 180,000 tons [6][80][82]. - **Building material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (previous value: 105,098 tons), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 12,100 tons (unchanged from last week) [72]. 3.3 Profit - The iron - water cost was 2,640 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was - 148 yuan/ton. The electric furnace profit was - 148 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [9][38]. 3.4 Inventory - The social inventory of rebar this week was 4.56 million tons (previous value: 4.67 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 50.9%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons (previous value: 1.92 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The total inventory was 6.41 million tons (previous value: 6.6 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.3 million tons (previous value: 1.28 million tons) [8][91][93]. 3.5 Period - Spot Market - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse - receipt basis was 25 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.8%. The 01 - contract basis was 20 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 72 yuan/ton [10][19]. - **Spread**: The spread between rebar 01 and 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, between 05 and 10 was - 39 yuan/ton, and between 10 and 01 was 92 yuan/ton. The Beijing spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 280 yuan/ton), the Shanghai spread was 60 yuan/ton (previous value: 110 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou spread was - 10 yuan/ton (previous value: 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 90 yuan/ton (previous value: 70 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 46 yuan/ton (previous value: - 38 yuan/ton). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 180 yuan/ton), the Shanghai premium was 140 yuan/ton (previous value: 130 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week) [21][24][27].