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2025年9月中国采购经理指数运行情况
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-09-30 01:30
国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 9月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.8%,比上月上升0.4个百分点,制造业景气水平继续改善。 从企业规模看,大型企业PMI为51.0%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,高于临界点;中型企业PMI为48.8%,比上月下降0.1个百分点,低于临界点;小型企业PMI 为48.2%,比上月上升1.6个百分点,仍低于临界点。 从分类指数看,在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中,生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点,新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 生产指数为51.9%,比上月上升1.1个百分点,表明制造业生产扩张加快。 新订单指数为49.7%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,表明制造业市场需求景气水平继续改善。 原材料库存指数为48.5%,比上月上升0.5个百分点,表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。 从业人员指数为48.5%,比上月上升0.6个百分点,表明制造业企业用工景气度改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.8%,比上月上升0.3个百分点,表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指 ...
2025年8月中国采购经理指数运行情况
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-08-31 01:31
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [4] - The production index was 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [4] Group 2: New Orders and Inventory - The new orders index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand within the manufacturing sector [5] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, still below the critical point, suggesting a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory levels [6] - The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment among manufacturing enterprises [7] Group 3: Supplier Delivery and Non-Manufacturing PMI - The supplier delivery time index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers are continuing to improve [8] - In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [12] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the services industry index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [15] Group 4: Employment and Price Indices in Non-Manufacturing - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating improved market demand [19] - The input price index was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises continue to rise [19] - The sales price index was 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in overall sales prices in the non-manufacturing sector [19] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index for August was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across industries [25]
顶流归来!付鹏闭门分享全球市场投资新逻辑
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-08-13 08:04
提到付鹏,我们第一时间会想到他的FICC分析框架,作为一位对全球资产轮动和宏观经济走势的研判 有着深刻的理解的经济学家,他尤其在利率和全球资产定价领域展现出独到见解。他以一本《见证逆 潮》揭示全球资产周期的底层规律,让投资者看清周期背后的真实力量。这些年,他始终站在全球视野 的制高点,观察、思考、积累——只为在最重要的关口,带来最有价值的认知。 过去几年,全球市场波动明显:利率变化,让债券市场起伏不定;汇率潮起潮落,牵动着全球贸易与资 本流向;商品周期轮动,油价、金价、铜价此起彼伏。它们看似独立,实则通过一条无形的链条FICC ——紧密相连。 *注:FICC(Fixed Income 固定收益、Currencies 外汇、Commodities 大宗商品) 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 如今,大咖回归。带着对全球市场的全新洞察,带着贯穿利率、汇率、大宗商品的全球市场投资图谱, 再一次站到台前。 如果说股市是表面上的风浪,那么FICC就是驱动潮水的"深海洋流"。懂它,就能看懂市场真正的方 向。 8月30日,相约深圳,付鹏将带你沿着这条链条,解读利率曲线、汇率波动、信用 ...
重磅经济数据即将发布,宏观政策将适时加力
第一财经· 2025-08-12 06:36
Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown resilience in the first half of the year, achieving a growth rate of 5.3%. The macroeconomic outlook for the second half remains a key focus for the market, with expectations of continued support from macro policies [3]. Economic Growth - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release July macroeconomic data on August 15, with expectations of a slowdown in industrial production growth due to seasonal factors and external disturbances [3]. - The First Financial Research Institute's Chief Economist Confidence Index rose to 50.2, indicating improved market confidence, although external uncertainties persist [3]. Industrial Production - The average forecast for July's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 6.0%, reflecting a slight decline from the previous month [5]. - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1% [5][6]. - Despite challenges, industrial production remains supported by resilient exports and active production operations, with coal consumption and railway freight volumes showing positive trends [6]. Consumer Spending - The average forecast for July's retail sales growth is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's figure [8]. - The summer season has led to increased spending in travel and entertainment, although automotive and housing consumption have seen declines [8]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 3 trillion yuan in related sales since its implementation [8]. Automotive Industry - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [9]. - The automotive market is experiencing seasonal slowdowns, but the "old-for-new" policy continues to have a positive impact [9]. Infrastructure Investment - The average forecast for July's fixed asset investment growth is 2.8%, consistent with the previous month [10]. - Infrastructure investment remains supported by government policies and ongoing projects, despite some slowdowns due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Sales of excavators in July increased by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the engineering machinery sector [10]. Real Estate Development - Real estate investment is expected to see a widening decline, with new housing transaction volumes in major cities showing significant decreases [12]. - Land transaction volumes have also declined, reflecting a weak market environment [12].
国家统计局公布:49.3%
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 07:31
Core Insights - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data indicates a slight decline in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, reflecting economic pressures [1][3][4] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction [1][3] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, showing a decline of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [5] - Despite the decline, the manufacturing sector shows resilience with high-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs remaining above the critical point [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, but still above the critical threshold [1][6] - The service sector remains stable, with a business activity index of 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [6] - The summer holiday effect positively influences service-related sectors such as transportation and entertainment, with indices exceeding 60.0% [6] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the fluctuations in the manufacturing PMI are primarily due to short-term factors, and the foundation for economic recovery remains solid [4] - The construction sector is experiencing a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions, but is expected to rebound as the rainy season ends [6][7]
6月份制造业PMI继续回升,制造业景气水平有所改善
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-06-30 12:59
Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month by 0.2 percentage points, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50% [1][2] - The PMI has shown fluctuations throughout the year, peaking at 50.5% in March before dropping to 49% in April due to seasonal factors and increased trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2] - In May, the PMI rebounded to 49.5%, continuing its upward trend into June, with production and new orders indices at 51% and 50.2% respectively, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activities and improved market demand [2] Group 2 - The purchasing volume index for June reached 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating increased procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Rising procurement volumes have led to a rebound in raw material prices, with the main raw material purchase price index and factory price index at 48.4% and 46.2%, both increasing by 1.5 percentage points [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector is performing well, with both production and demand being active, as evidenced by the PMI for equipment manufacturing at 51.4% and high-tech manufacturing at 50.9%, both remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing PMI has shown a recovery from a significant drop in April, with values of 51.2% in May and 51.4% in June, alongside production and new orders indices exceeding 53% [4] - From January to May, profits in the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors increased by 56% year-on-year [4] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has maintained an expansion trend for five consecutive months, reflecting a positive development trajectory [4]
【环球财经】乐观预期推动 纽约股市三大股指3日均上涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 00:02
Group 1 - The New York stock market showed mixed performance on June 3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 214.16 points to close at 42519.64, a gain of 0.51% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 34.43 points to 5970.37, reflecting a rise of 0.58%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 156.34 points to 19398.96, marking an increase of 0.81% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, eight out of eleven sectors gained, with the technology and energy sectors leading with increases of 1.48% and 1.11% respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that job openings in April 2025 reached 7.391 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.1 million and the revised figure of 7.2 million from March [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department announced that new orders for manufactured goods in April amounted to $594.6 billion, a month-over-month decline of 3.7%, which was worse than the market expectation of -3% [2] - The OECD downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year from 2.2% to 1.6% due to trade uncertainties and tariffs [2] Group 3 - Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities indicated that market expectations are optimistic regarding a potential phone call between U.S. and Chinese leaders, which could positively impact bilateral relations, with Nvidia identified as a key beneficiary [2] - Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA, suggested that the S&P 500 index may fluctuate between 5700 and its historical high from February until clearer data on Q2 GDP and earnings is available [2] - Nvidia's stock price rose significantly by 2.8% to $141.22 per share, with other semiconductor stocks also showing notable gains [2]
上海财经大学校长刘元春:外部环境对我国经济的影响弱于预期
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-23 01:04
Group 1 - The external environment is a significant variable affecting China's macroeconomic trends, with uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies and their global implications [1] - Domestic new growth drivers are accumulating, becoming the core strength for China's economy to navigate through cycles, while the real estate market has emerged from its low point, though uncertainties remain regarding its recovery timing [1] - A combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has quickly boosted domestic demand, but the effectiveness of extraordinary measures in countering debt-deflation and balance sheet contraction effects is still under observation [1] Group 2 - The direct impact of external environmental changes has not been as severe as anticipated, with actual market performance differing from many market participants' predictions [2] - China's export resilience to the U.S. has exceeded expectations, with limited decline in export growth despite high tariffs and a high base from the previous year [2] - The intensity of re-export trade has also surpassed expectations, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Latin America, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the U.S. [2] - Exports to countries and regions outside the U.S. and major re-export markets have shown unexpected growth, indicating that domestic exporters are actively seeking new markets [2] - The outcomes of tariff negotiations have also exceeded expectations, contributing positively to the overall trade environment [2]