智通财经1月9日讯（记者 夏淑媛）新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果显示，2025年12月新增贷款及社 融或延续同比少增。其中，市场机构对12月新增人民币贷款的预测中值为0.77万亿元，或同比少增0.22 万亿元；另对12月新增社融的预测中值为1.74万亿元，同比少增1.12万亿元。货币供应量方面，12月M1 增速或将维持下降态势，M2增速小幅回落，据市场机构测算，M2与M1剪刀差将进一步走扩。 物价方面，今日公布数据显示，2025年12月CPI同比上涨0.8%，与市场预期持平；PPI同比下降1.9%， 表现好于市场预期。具体来看，市场机构对2025年12月CPI同比增速预测中值为0.8%，对PPI同比增速 预测中值为-2%。 "C50风向指数调查"是由智通财经发起，由市场中的各类研究机构参与完成，结果能够较为全面地反映 市场机构对于宏观经济走势、货币政策感受以及金融数据的预期。共有近20家机构参与本期调查。 2025年12月人民币新增贷款或同比少增，市场预测中值为0.77万亿元 2025年11月人民币贷款新增0.39万亿元，较上年同期少增0.19万亿元。 从本期来看，市场普遍预计12月信贷同比读数或进一步 ...

【导读】五大私募展望2026年债市投资机会 中国基金报记者刘明 站在2025年年末，如何看待2025年债市变化？2026年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回答上述问题，中国 基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募机构人士包括银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金 创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕，以 及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳：2026年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽幅震荡，长债 有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率品种表现，12月中央经济工作会议定调货币政策将继 续保持适度宽松，有助于短端资产的平稳表现。 万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华：2026年，重点看好以下三类品种：一是中短端高等级信用债，是 组合的"压舱石"。二是转债市场的结构性机遇，部分具备强基本面支撑的偏债型转债展现出极佳的"债 底+期权"属性。三是中资点心债。 安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛：2026年将延续"股牛+债不熊"格局：债市依然"上有顶、下有底"， 整体将保持低位震荡，仍具有一定的配置价值。看好三类机会。一是纯 ...

证券日报网讯 12月24日，昌红科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司股价波动受宏观经济走 势、行业发展周期、资本市场流动性等多重外部因素综合影响。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a growth rate increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Despite the low CPI growth throughout the year, the positive signal is that both October and November saw positive year-on-year CPI growth, with November's core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% [2][3] Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI growth has been low overall this year, with six months experiencing negative year-on-year growth, leading to an average CPI that is flat compared to the previous year [2] - The government's target for CPI growth this year is set at around 2%, which is lower than the previous four years' target of around 3% and the lowest since 2004 [5] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in food prices is a significant factor contributing to the rise in CPI for November, with seasonal price increases playing a role [3] - The current economic environment shows a mismatch between supply and demand, with supply being forced to contract in response to shrinking demand, leading to a cycle of economic slowdown [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's upward trend indicates improving domestic consumption demand, the foundation for sustained improvement remains fragile, requiring ongoing policy support [4] - The adjustment of the CPI growth target to around 2% reflects a realistic approach given the current economic conditions, aiming to avoid deflation [5]

Core Points - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.00% and for five years or more at 3.50%, unchanged for six consecutive months [1] - The stability of the LPR aligns with market expectations, reflecting a steady macroeconomic environment [3] - The only adjustment to the LPR this year occurred in May, with both one-year and five-year rates lowered by 10 basis points [5] Economic Context - The unchanged LPR is attributed to strong economic performance driven by unexpected export growth and rapid development in new productive sectors [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable market expectations and a consistent monetary policy environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections LPR Announcement - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values [1]. - The announcement aligns with market expectations, indicating stability in the monetary policy [1]. Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, while 190 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% and the 7-day Shibor down by 2.7 basis points to 1.46% [1]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance, with key indicators such as investment, consumption, and industrial production showing signs of decline [2][3]. - The potential for new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [3]. - The regulatory body may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high mortgage rates and boost housing market demand [4].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][30] - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all below the critical point [4] - The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production [5] - The new orders index was 48.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a drop in market demand [6] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points, showing a continued reduction in inventory levels [7] - The employment index was 48.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a minor decline in employment levels in manufacturing [8] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [18] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [20] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating weak market demand [22] - The input prices index was 49.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [22] - The sales prices index was 47.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating that sales prices remained below the previous month [22] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating slight improvement in employment conditions [22] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stability in production and business activities across sectors [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, but the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. In terms of fundamentals, the output of rebar decreased slightly, and the demand picked up after the holiday, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, the overall demand recovery was still insufficient. The output of hot-rolled coil continued to decline, and the demand also increased after the holiday, but the inventory remained at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions were still prominent. The spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil further narrowed. At the macro level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to make an overall plan for the economic development in the next five years, which is of great guiding significance for the macroeconomic trend. In general, the current steel demand is weak. Although the previous remarks of Trump caused short-term disturbances to commodity prices, the medium - and long - term trend of steel prices has not changed fundamentally. In the short term, the pattern of weak real steel demand is still difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the intensity and direction of policy introduction around the Fourth Plenary Session [10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The cumulative output was 89.3101 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.99%. The long - process output was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.81%. The short - process output was 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.97%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.4095 million tons, and the hot - season hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons [6]. - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (previous value: 91%), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53% (previous value: 51%) [55]. - **Regional production volume**: The rebar output in the northern region was 420,000 tons (previous value: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 780,000 tons (previous value: 810,000 tons). The output in East China was 810,000 tons, in Jiangsu was 350,000 tons, in Shandong was 80,000 tons, and in Anhui was 130,000 tons. The output in Guangdong was 210,000 tons, and in Guangxi was 60,000 tons [63][66][69] 3.2 Demand - side - **Consumption volume**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2 million tons (previous value: 1.46 million tons), a week - on - week increase of 50.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The cumulative demand was 86.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.2 million tons, and in East China was 750,000 tons. In the southwest, it was 360,000 tons, in South China was 330,000 tons, in North China was 150,000 tons, and in Central China was 190,000 tons. In the northeast, it was 140,000 tons, and in the northwest was 180,000 tons [6][80][82]. - **Building material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (previous value: 105,098 tons), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 12,100 tons (unchanged from last week) [72]. 3.3 Profit - The iron - water cost was 2,640 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was - 148 yuan/ton. The electric furnace profit was - 148 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [9][38]. 3.4 Inventory - The social inventory of rebar this week was 4.56 million tons (previous value: 4.67 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 50.9%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons (previous value: 1.92 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The total inventory was 6.41 million tons (previous value: 6.6 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.3 million tons (previous value: 1.28 million tons) [8][91][93]. 3.5 Period - Spot Market - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse - receipt basis was 25 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.8%. The 01 - contract basis was 20 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 72 yuan/ton [10][19]. - **Spread**: The spread between rebar 01 and 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, between 05 and 10 was - 39 yuan/ton, and between 10 and 01 was 92 yuan/ton. The Beijing spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 280 yuan/ton), the Shanghai spread was 60 yuan/ton (previous value: 110 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou spread was - 10 yuan/ton (previous value: 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 90 yuan/ton (previous value: 70 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 46 yuan/ton (previous value: - 38 yuan/ton). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 180 yuan/ton), the Shanghai premium was 140 yuan/ton (previous value: 130 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week) [21][24][27].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [4] - The production index was 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion, while the new orders index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting improved market demand [4] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Components - The raw material inventory index was 48.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continued narrowing of the decline in raw material inventory levels [4] - The employment index was 48.5%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved employment sentiment in manufacturing [4] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times from suppliers [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in non-manufacturing business volume [8] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points [10] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing PMI Components - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [14] - The input prices index was 49.0%, down 1.3 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [14] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in employment sentiment [16] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued acceleration in overall production and business activities [19]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [4] - The production index was 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [4] Group 2: New Orders and Inventory - The new orders index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand within the manufacturing sector [5] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, still below the critical point, suggesting a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory levels [6] - The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment among manufacturing enterprises [7] Group 3: Supplier Delivery and Non-Manufacturing PMI - The supplier delivery time index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers are continuing to improve [8] - In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [12] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the services industry index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [15] Group 4: Employment and Price Indices in Non-Manufacturing - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating improved market demand [19] - The input price index was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises continue to rise [19] - The sales price index was 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in overall sales prices in the non-manufacturing sector [19] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index for August was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across industries [25]