Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the supply side, steel supply showed a high - level and stable trend in August with obvious differentiation among varieties. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, leading to a marginal increase in supply and greater inventory accumulation pressure in September [3][15][38]. - On the demand side, demand will seasonally improve in September but the intensity is expected to be limited. The traditional peak season for construction steel arrives, but the real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals have restocking needs, promoting a marginal improvement in steel demand [3][26][39]. - In the next month, both supply and demand of steel will increase. Steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and rebounding trend in the short - term, but face significant upward pressure in the medium - term due to poor terminal demand. Rebar is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][41]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, steel futures fluctuated weakly, and the price center of the main contracts moved down. The market shifted from policy - expectation - led trading to industry fundamentals. Supply pressure remained high, and demand was weak. Although first - tier cities loosened property purchase restrictions, the market boost was limited. In September, demand will be the main driving factor [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Issued a Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Steel Industry - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to address the core contradictions in the steel industry, with economic indicators targeting an average annual increase of about 4% in added value from 2025 - 2026. It also includes measures such as strictly controlling new production capacity, reducing production, and classifying enterprises [14]. 2.2 Steel Inventory Accumulation Accelerated, and Inventory Increased Significantly - As of September 4, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1.501 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 149 million tons or 11%. Construction steel inventory increased significantly, while plate inventory pressure was relatively limited. Social inventory increased more than factory inventory [19]. 2.3 Limited Demand Space in the Peak Season of September - In August, steel demand was weak. In September, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. The real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals' restocking needs will drive a marginal improvement in steel demand [26]. 2.4 First - Tier Property Markets Loosened Restrictions Again, with Few Bright Spots in Terminal Demand - Beijing and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies in August, but the policy effects have not yet appeared. The real - estate industry is still in a downturn, dragging down the demand for construction steel. Infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the overall pull on steel demand was limited. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. The auto industry showed good performance, while home appliance production in September decreased year - on - year. Steel exports remained resilient in the first half of the year, but overseas policy uncertainty is high [31][32][36]. 3. Market Outlook - In the supply side, steel supply will increase after steel mills resume production in September, and inventory accumulation pressure will increase. In the demand side, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with rebar fluctuating in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][38][41].