Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment fluctuates, leading to wide fluctuations in steel prices [3] - Steel demand is gradually reaching its peak, and the de-stocking of steel mills is slowing down, intensifying the negative feedback pressure. Future domestic policy stimulus should be continuously monitored [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Overseas Macro - Trump's core demands, including manufacturing decline and reduced fiscal spending, are contradictory, leading to inconsistent views that will damage the US dollar's credit. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is negative for US inflation data and strengthens the risk of a hard landing. However, energy commodity prices are supported [5][9] Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting ended without any unexpected policies. China will enter a policy window period [5][8] - The expectation of central government leveraging has been falsified [6] 2. Ribbed Bar Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai ribbed bar was 3090 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 2992 (+23) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 98 (-13) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 7 (+6) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [14][18] Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [19][22][23] Inventory - The de - stocking of steel mill inventories is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active de - stocking [25][27] Production Profit - The spot profit of ribbed bar last week was 233 (+49) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 312 (+8) yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit of East China ribbed bar was - 48 (-8) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [29][33] 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 (+20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3116 (+34) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 84 (-14) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 9 (+7) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [35][39] Demand - The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, leading to a sequential decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The pace of export rush has slowed down, and steel port departures have decreased [40][43] Inventory - Demand has weakened sequentially, and inventories have slightly accumulated. Steel mills maintain high production levels [47][48] Production Profit - The spot profit of hot - rolled coil last week was 159 (+58) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 286 (+19) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [50][53] 4. Variety Spread Structure - The report presents historical data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - ribbed bar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc., but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [54] 5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [63][64]