1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Low valuation combined with policy drivers lead to a slight increase in steel prices. The overseas macro situation shows that the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rise in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to pro - cyclical commodities. In the domestic market, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, the steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation - **Macro - environment**: Overseas, the macro - trading is temporarily biased towards the direction of interest rate cuts. The easing of the Middle East situation, poor US employment data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts have a positive impact on pro - cyclical commodities. Domestically, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. There have been a series of policy events such as real - estate favorable policies, debt replacement, and government work reports [5][8][9]. - **Black Industry Chain**: The steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [5][11]. 3.2 Rebar (Thread Steel) - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3160 (+80) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3072 (+77) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 88 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 21 (-21) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [17]. - **Demand**: Second - hand housing transactions remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - housing transactions remain low, showing weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: According to MS weekly data, the destocking of steel mill inventory slows down, and supply slightly increases. The spot profit last week was 336 (+84) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 325 (+46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 59 (+82) yuan/ton [24][32]. 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (+60) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3201 (+80) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 49 (-20) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 9 (-3) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [37]. - **Demand**: The demand for hot - rolled coils weakens month - on - month. The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, the white - goods production enters the seasonal off - season, and the export also weakens month - on - month [38][41][42]. - **Supply and Inventory**: According to MS weekly data, demand weakens month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulates, and steel mills maintain high production. The spot profit last week was 238 (+62) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 304 (+49) yuan/ton [46][47][52]. 3.4 Variety Spread Structure - There are various spread structures such as the cold - hot spread in Shanghai, the coil - rebar spread in Shanghai, the medium - plate hot - roll spread in Shanghai, the wire - rebar spread in Hangzhou, etc. There are also regional spreads for rebar, wire, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil [53][54][61]. 3.5 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate - Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided, including seasonal data on total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [65][66].

Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment fluctuates, leading to wide fluctuations in steel prices [3] - Steel demand is gradually reaching its peak, and the de-stocking of steel mills is slowing down, intensifying the negative feedback pressure. Future domestic policy stimulus should be continuously monitored [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Overseas Macro - Trump's core demands, including manufacturing decline and reduced fiscal spending, are contradictory, leading to inconsistent views that will damage the US dollar's credit. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is negative for US inflation data and strengthens the risk of a hard landing. However, energy commodity prices are supported [5][9] Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting ended without any unexpected policies. China will enter a policy window period [5][8] - The expectation of central government leveraging has been falsified [6] 2. Ribbed Bar Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai ribbed bar was 3090 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 2992 (+23) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 98 (-13) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 7 (+6) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [14][18] Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [19][22][23] Inventory - The de - stocking of steel mill inventories is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active de - stocking [25][27] Production Profit - The spot profit of ribbed bar last week was 233 (+49) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 312 (+8) yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit of East China ribbed bar was - 48 (-8) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [29][33] 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 (+20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3116 (+34) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 84 (-14) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 9 (+7) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [35][39] Demand - The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, leading to a sequential decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The pace of export rush has slowed down, and steel port departures have decreased [40][43] Inventory - Demand has weakened sequentially, and inventories have slightly accumulated. Steel mills maintain high production levels [47][48] Production Profit - The spot profit of hot - rolled coil last week was 159 (+58) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 286 (+19) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [50][53] 4. Variety Spread Structure - The report presents historical data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - ribbed bar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc., but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [54] 5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [63][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment disturbances. The rise in oil prices is negative for US inflation data, strengthening the risk of a hard landing, but there is support for energy commodities. The demand for steel in the black industry chain is gradually peaking, and the negative feedback pressure is intensifying. [3][5] Summary by Directory 01. Rebar Fundamental Data Rebar Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3080 (-40) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 2969 (-6) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 111 (-34) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 1 (-3) yuan/ton. [12][16] Rebar Demand - New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Although second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting rigid demand, land transaction area also stays low. With the arrival of the off - season, rebar demand shows a seasonal decline. [17][20][21] Rebar Inventory - The destocking of steel - mill inventory is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active destocking. [23][25] Rebar Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 184 (-7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 304 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was - 40 (-65) yuan/ton. [27][31] 02. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3180 (-20) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 3082 (-10) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 98 (-10) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 2 (-3) yuan/ton. [33][37] Hot - Rolled Coil Demand - The demand for hot - rolled coils has weakened month - on - month. The US has announced additional tariffs on steel household appliances, and the white - goods production has entered the seasonal off - season. The rhythm of export rush has slowed down, and steel exports have declined step by step. [38][41] Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The demand has weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. [45] Hot - Rolled Coil Production - Steel mills maintain high production levels. [46] Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 101 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 267 (+1) yuan/ton. [48][51] Variety Spread Structure - The report presents the spread data of Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - coil spread, Hangzhou wire - rebar spread, Hangzhou rebar - billet spread, and Shanghai galvanized - cold - rolled spread over the years. [52][53][58] Cold - Rolled and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled and medium - plate total inventory, production, and apparent consumption over the years. [61][62]