螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年07月06日 ◼ 逻辑：低估值叠加政策驱动，钢价小幅上涨； ◼ 宏观面：海外宏观：中东地缘局势缓和，全球风险偏好提升，美国降息预期抬升，美元指数回落，利多顺周期商 品；美国就业数据不佳，强化降息交易；国内宏观：供给侧预期短暂交易，需求端等待730政治局会议。 ◼ 黑色产业链：淡季钢铁需求超预期，钢材库存偏低，钢厂利润扩大，铁水下行缓慢，负反馈传导不畅。后期继续 关注国内政策刺激。 国内宏观：供给侧预期短暂交易，需求端仍偏平淡 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind 富宝资讯：、国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：Mysteel、iFind、Wind、富宝资讯、国泰君安期货研究所 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2022/01 2022/04 2022/07 2022/10 2023/01 2023/04 2023/07 2023/10 2024/01 2024/04 2024/07 2024/10 2025/01 2025/04 2025/07 元/吨 螺纹主连 Guota ...

Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment fluctuates, leading to wide fluctuations in steel prices [3] - Steel demand is gradually reaching its peak, and the de-stocking of steel mills is slowing down, intensifying the negative feedback pressure. Future domestic policy stimulus should be continuously monitored [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Overseas Macro - Trump's core demands, including manufacturing decline and reduced fiscal spending, are contradictory, leading to inconsistent views that will damage the US dollar's credit. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is negative for US inflation data and strengthens the risk of a hard landing. However, energy commodity prices are supported [5][9] Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting ended without any unexpected policies. China will enter a policy window period [5][8] - The expectation of central government leveraging has been falsified [6] 2. Ribbed Bar Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai ribbed bar was 3090 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 2992 (+23) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 98 (-13) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 7 (+6) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [14][18] Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [19][22][23] Inventory - The de - stocking of steel mill inventories is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active de - stocking [25][27] Production Profit - The spot profit of ribbed bar last week was 233 (+49) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 312 (+8) yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit of East China ribbed bar was - 48 (-8) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [29][33] 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 (+20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3116 (+34) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 84 (-14) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 9 (+7) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [35][39] Demand - The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, leading to a sequential decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The pace of export rush has slowed down, and steel port departures have decreased [40][43] Inventory - Demand has weakened sequentially, and inventories have slightly accumulated. Steel mills maintain high production levels [47][48] Production Profit - The spot profit of hot - rolled coil last week was 159 (+58) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 286 (+19) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [50][53] 4. Variety Spread Structure - The report presents historical data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - ribbed bar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc., but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [54] 5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [63][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment disturbances. The rise in oil prices is negative for US inflation data, strengthening the risk of a hard landing, but there is support for energy commodities. The demand for steel in the black industry chain is gradually peaking, and the negative feedback pressure is intensifying. [3][5] Summary by Directory 01. Rebar Fundamental Data Rebar Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3080 (-40) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 2969 (-6) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 111 (-34) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 1 (-3) yuan/ton. [12][16] Rebar Demand - New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Although second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting rigid demand, land transaction area also stays low. With the arrival of the off - season, rebar demand shows a seasonal decline. [17][20][21] Rebar Inventory - The destocking of steel - mill inventory is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active destocking. [23][25] Rebar Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 184 (-7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 304 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was - 40 (-65) yuan/ton. [27][31] 02. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3180 (-20) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 3082 (-10) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 98 (-10) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 2 (-3) yuan/ton. [33][37] Hot - Rolled Coil Demand - The demand for hot - rolled coils has weakened month - on - month. The US has announced additional tariffs on steel household appliances, and the white - goods production has entered the seasonal off - season. The rhythm of export rush has slowed down, and steel exports have declined step by step. [38][41] Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The demand has weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. [45] Hot - Rolled Coil Production - Steel mills maintain high production levels. [46] Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 101 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 267 (+1) yuan/ton. [48][51] Variety Spread Structure - The report presents the spread data of Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - coil spread, Hangzhou wire - rebar spread, Hangzhou rebar - billet spread, and Shanghai galvanized - cold - rolled spread over the years. [52][53][58] Cold - Rolled and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled and medium - plate total inventory, production, and apparent consumption over the years. [61][62]