Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment fluctuates, leading to wide fluctuations in steel prices [3] - Steel demand is gradually reaching its peak, and the de-stocking of steel mills is slowing down, intensifying the negative feedback pressure. Future domestic policy stimulus should be continuously monitored [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Overseas Macro - Trump's core demands, including manufacturing decline and reduced fiscal spending, are contradictory, leading to inconsistent views that will damage the US dollar's credit. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is negative for US inflation data and strengthens the risk of a hard landing. However, energy commodity prices are supported [5][9] Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting ended without any unexpected policies. China will enter a policy window period [5][8] - The expectation of central government leveraging has been falsified [6] 2. Ribbed Bar Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai ribbed bar was 3090 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 2992 (+23) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 98 (-13) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 7 (+6) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [14][18] Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [19][22][23] Inventory - The de - stocking of steel mill inventories is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active de - stocking [25][27] Production Profit - The spot profit of ribbed bar last week was 233 (+49) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 312 (+8) yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit of East China ribbed bar was - 48 (-8) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [29][33] 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 (+20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3116 (+34) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 84 (-14) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 9 (+7) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [35][39] Demand - The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, leading to a sequential decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The pace of export rush has slowed down, and steel port departures have decreased [40][43] Inventory - Demand has weakened sequentially, and inventories have slightly accumulated. Steel mills maintain high production levels [47][48] Production Profit - The spot profit of hot - rolled coil last week was 159 (+58) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 286 (+19) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [50][53] 4. Variety Spread Structure - The report presents historical data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - ribbed bar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc., but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [54] 5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [63][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to continue its range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the loosening fundamentals and mixed macro - level factors [8]. - Steel prices will experience wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances, with steel demand peaking and negative feedback pressure intensifying [68]. - The alloy market will show an oscillating trend due to the game between macro - drivers and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and steel production rhythms [128][129]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Australian shipments are rising, with BHP and Fortescue having strong end - of - fiscal - year impulse, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Non - mainstream mines in Peru have not fully recovered, and domestic mines in Southwest and North China have reduced production due to inspections [7][8][20][32]. - **Demand**: Although the decline of hot metal is slow, port throughput has dropped rapidly, and the production of five major steel products has decreased steeply, indicating a possible change in the strong - reality situation. The substitution effect of scrap steel is relatively neutral [8][38][39]. - **Inventory**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [43][45]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices are in narrow - range oscillation, spot prices are weak, the medium - low grade spread is narrowing, the 9 - 1 spread has narrowed, and the basis has converged [10][15][53][57][60]. 3.2 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand of various steel products are generally declining. For rebar, new - home sales are low, and demand is seasonally weak. For hot - rolled coil, demand is weakening both domestically and in exports [67][79][83][100][103][104]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the de - stocking of steel mills has slowed down. For hot - rolled coil, inventory has slightly accumulated [85][107]. - **Profit**: The spot and futures profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have different trends, and there is still room for the compression of the futures profit [93][113]. - **Spread**: There are opportunities for reverse spreads in the off - season for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [75][95]. 3.3 Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Supply**: Silicon iron supply has slightly decreased, while manganese silicon supply has continued to rebound, with obvious production increases in Ningxia [130][140]. - **Demand**: Demand is gradually peaking. Steel mill inventory days are decreasing, and the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking is shrinking, but non - steel demand shows different trends [130][153]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [130]. - **Price and Profit**: Futures prices show different trends, with silicon iron rebounding slightly and manganese silicon oscillating. Spot prices are weak, and both spot and futures profits are under pressure [134][135].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment disturbances. The rise in oil prices is negative for US inflation data, strengthening the risk of a hard landing, but there is support for energy commodities. The demand for steel in the black industry chain is gradually peaking, and the negative feedback pressure is intensifying. [3][5] Summary by Directory 01. Rebar Fundamental Data Rebar Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3080 (-40) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 2969 (-6) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 111 (-34) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 1 (-3) yuan/ton. [12][16] Rebar Demand - New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Although second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting rigid demand, land transaction area also stays low. With the arrival of the off - season, rebar demand shows a seasonal decline. [17][20][21] Rebar Inventory - The destocking of steel - mill inventory is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active destocking. [23][25] Rebar Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 184 (-7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 304 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was - 40 (-65) yuan/ton. [27][31] 02. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3180 (-20) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 3082 (-10) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 98 (-10) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 2 (-3) yuan/ton. [33][37] Hot - Rolled Coil Demand - The demand for hot - rolled coils has weakened month - on - month. The US has announced additional tariffs on steel household appliances, and the white - goods production has entered the seasonal off - season. The rhythm of export rush has slowed down, and steel exports have declined step by step. [38][41] Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The demand has weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. [45] Hot - Rolled Coil Production - Steel mills maintain high production levels. [46] Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 101 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 267 (+1) yuan/ton. [48][51] Variety Spread Structure - The report presents the spread data of Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - coil spread, Hangzhou wire - rebar spread, Hangzhou rebar - billet spread, and Shanghai galvanized - cold - rolled spread over the years. [52][53][58] Cold - Rolled and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled and medium - plate total inventory, production, and apparent consumption over the years. [61][62]