Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke are not considered as short - allocation in the black series. However, the high supply pressure and high inventory of steel will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. For coking coal, it is not recommended to use it as a short - allocation variety in the black series. For coke, the industrial sector can focus on hedging opportunities under low basis, and arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1200 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 41.63% and a historical percentile of 81.94%. The monthly price range of coke is predicted to be 1650 - 1850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 31.38% and a historical percentile of 67.08% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory hedging of coke, when coke production recovers rapidly and the spot supply - demand becomes loose, coke enterprises worried about price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at the price range of (1780, 1830) and 50% at (1830 - 1880). For procurement management of coking coal, due to factors such as repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine production, and inspections for over - production, coking plants worried about price increases can long - buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at the price range of (1200, 1250) and 50% at (1150, 1200) [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The warehouse receipt data of various black products on 2025 - 09 - 22, 2025 - 09 - 19, and 2025 - 09 - 15 are provided, including the daily and weekly changes. For example, the warehouse receipt of rebar decreased by 21,922 tons compared to the previous day and 20,487 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream pre - festival replenishment improved the coking coal inventory structure, and there was a price - holding sentiment at the mine mouth, leading to a stop - fall and rebound of coking coal spot prices. The second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, the cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, and coking profits shrank rapidly. It is difficult to implement the third - round price cut before the festival [4]. 3.利多 and 利空 Interpretations - **利多 Factors**: Downstream pre - festival seasonal replenishment eased the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the mine mouth actively held prices. The difficulty of the third - round price cut of coke increased, and some coke enterprises tried to raise prices. After the second - round price cut, the profit of steel spot improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - involution" is the trading focus in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the coking coal and coke futures market. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **利空 Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, limiting the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides the coking coal and coke futures prices on 2025 - 09 - 22, 2025 - 09 - 19, and 2025 - 09 - 15, including the basis, price differences between different contracts, and some ratios [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke on 2025 - 09 - 22, 2025 - 09 - 19, and 2025 - 09 - 15 are provided, including domestic and imported coking coal, and different types of coke. It also includes the profit data of coking, coal import, and coke export [9][10].

Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment fluctuates, leading to wide fluctuations in steel prices [3] - Steel demand is gradually reaching its peak, and the de-stocking of steel mills is slowing down, intensifying the negative feedback pressure. Future domestic policy stimulus should be continuously monitored [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Overseas Macro - Trump's core demands, including manufacturing decline and reduced fiscal spending, are contradictory, leading to inconsistent views that will damage the US dollar's credit. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is negative for US inflation data and strengthens the risk of a hard landing. However, energy commodity prices are supported [5][9] Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting ended without any unexpected policies. China will enter a policy window period [5][8] - The expectation of central government leveraging has been falsified [6] 2. Ribbed Bar Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai ribbed bar was 3090 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 2992 (+23) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 98 (-13) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 7 (+6) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [14][18] Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [19][22][23] Inventory - The de - stocking of steel mill inventories is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active de - stocking [25][27] Production Profit - The spot profit of ribbed bar last week was 233 (+49) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 312 (+8) yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit of East China ribbed bar was - 48 (-8) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [29][33] 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 (+20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3116 (+34) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 84 (-14) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 9 (+7) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [35][39] Demand - The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, leading to a sequential decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The pace of export rush has slowed down, and steel port departures have decreased [40][43] Inventory - Demand has weakened sequentially, and inventories have slightly accumulated. Steel mills maintain high production levels [47][48] Production Profit - The spot profit of hot - rolled coil last week was 159 (+58) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 286 (+19) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [50][53] 4. Variety Spread Structure - The report presents historical data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - ribbed bar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc., but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [54] 5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [63][64]