Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held to study suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and deployed later economic work. Attention should be paid to expected fluctuations [8]. - From a fundamental perspective, the current high supply is the main factor suppressing price rebounds. The demand side is weak, and the supply - demand gap remains at a high level. For different varieties, both production and sales of rebar are weak, and it may continue to test the integer - level support in the short term. The production of hot - rolled coils is high, and inventory continues to accumulate. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are weaker than those of rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar may continue to shrink [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Price and Output**: As of Saturday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3170 yuan (+10), and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3270 yuan (-10). As of October 16, the overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 63600 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 16140 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 2320 tons. The apparent demand was 8.7541 million tons, an increase of 1.3996 million tons month - on - month [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of October 16, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34.4%, a rebound of 3.7 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 523000 tons, a rebound of 12500 tons month - on - month. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 252000 tons/day, a decrease of 6600 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17100 tons, a rebound of 1820 tons, an increase of 12%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 520000 tons, a rebound of 20700 tons, an increase of 4.1%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.795 million tons, a rebound of 265700 tons, an increase of 5.9% [7]. - **Production and Inventory of Major Steel Products**: From August to October 2025, the production and inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils showed different trends. For example, in the latest week, the rebar production was 201160 tons (-22400 tons compared with the previous week), and the total inventory was 641050 tons (-185900 tons compared with the previous week) [10]. - **Macro - economic Data**: In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative output of pig iron was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period in 2024. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) increased by - 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by - 1.92% year - on - year; real estate development investment increased by - 21.28% year - on - year [16][25]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.52165 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was 222.28 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [28] 2. Main Variety Basis - Not provided in the content 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to decline [37] 4. Supply (Long - process) - As of October 17, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared with October 10, a decrease of 0.24%. The average daily pig iron output was 241000 tons, a decrease of 590 tons compared with October 10, a decrease of 0.24% [40] 5. Supply (Short - process) - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 34.4% (+3.7). As of October 17, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 25.65 yuan (-12.76) [43] 6. Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 201160 tons (-22400 tons). Among them, the long - process output was 174730 tons (-53800 tons), and the short - process output was 26430 tons (+31400 tons) [55] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 184640 tons (-7700 tons), the social inventory was 456410 tons (-108900 tons), and the total inventory was 641050 tons (-185900 tons) [71] 7. Hot - rolled Coils - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 321840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14500 tons. The apparent demand was 315550 tons, a month - on - month rebound of 245800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 57500 tons, the social inventory increased by 120400 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 62900 tons [74] 8. Export Situation - As of October 17, the FOB export price of China was 460 US dollars (-20), and the export profit was - 3.1 US dollars (-4.3). The outbound volume of major domestic ports (32 ports) was 2.9681 million tons (+810100 tons), a month - on - month increase of 37.5% [86]