黑色金属月报-铁矿 吨钢利润收缩 矿价承压 2025年9月1日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 吨钢利润收缩 矿价承压 8月铁矿主流现货价格反弹，月度涨幅在12-30元不等。具体来看，卡粉（+23），PB粉（+15），BRBF （+30），金布巴（+13）， 超特粉（+33），mac（+12）。块矿方面，PB块（+17） ，纽曼块（+35），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+52）。普氏62%指数方面，截止8 月29日，普氏指数收于103.6美元，月环比回升4.55美元，目前按汇率7.13折算人民币大致在860元左右。仓单方面，截止8月29日，最 优交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价在776元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为801元/吨左右，09铁矿平水现货，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为pb 粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比去库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量14388.02万吨，环比去库56万吨,较年 初去库1222万吨,比去年同期库存低1691万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港回升；从需求端考虑，铁水小 ...

黑色金属月报-钢材 库存持续累积 吨钢利润收缩 2025年9月1日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 目录 第一部分 结论 第二部分 供需基本面 1 库存持续累积 吨钢利润收缩 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 五大品种表观需求 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153 五大品种钢材社库+厂库（农历） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 8月国内钢材现货价格下跌，截至8月末，华东上海螺纹3240元，月环比下跌130元/吨；上海 热卷3380元，月环比下跌30元/吨。 截至8月28日，五大品种钢材整体产量增6.55万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降2.33吨，社库增 29.17吨。表观需857.77万吨，环比增4.78万吨。截至8月28日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程 现金含 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Black Metal Weekly - Steel" [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained fluctuating at a high level, and the supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. Due to the expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade, raw material prices were firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no driving force for a sharp decline. The short - term trend may be volatile, and the valuation of the 01 - contract rebar may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Conclusion - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained at a high - level fluctuation. The supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. The expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade made raw material prices firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no deep - decline driving force. The short - term may show a volatile trend, and the 01 - contract rebar valuation may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Part 2: Supply - Demand Fundamentals Price - Last week, domestic steel spot prices declined. In East China, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan (- 40), Tangshan rebar was 3170 yuan (- 60); for hot - rolled coils, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (- 70), Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan (- 40) [9]. Production - As of August 21, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.9 tons per day, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 tons; the short - process daily consumption was 17.7 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons [8][10][79]. Inventory - As of August 21, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.3 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 26.37 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The original sample rebar factory inventory was 174.53 tons (+ 2.27), the social inventory was 432.51 tons (+ 17.58), and the total inventory was 607.04 tons (+ 19.85). For hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [8][10][79]. Cost and Profit - As of August 22, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3147.5 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 102.5 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 152.5 yuan. The flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3344 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3216 yuan, with a flat - rate electricity profit of about 138 yuan and an off - peak electricity profit of - 26 yuan [8]. Macro Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024. In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016. The PMI in July was 49.3%. From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; the manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; the real - estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][22][27]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [30]. Other Parts - **Main Variety Basis**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Main Variety Inter - period**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Arbitrage Strategy Tracking**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Supply (Long - process)**: As of August 22, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3% (+ 0.03), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.8 tons (+ 0.09) [44]. - **Supply (Short - process)**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 35.7% (- 0.6); as of August 22, the iron - scrap price difference was 10.87 yuan (+ 48.2) [47]. - **Scrap Steel Arrival**: The total daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 53.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.47 tons, an increase of 9% [8]. - **Scrap Steel Daily Consumption**: The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [8]. - **Scrap Steel Inventory in Steel Mills**: The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7% [8]. - **Rebar Production**: The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), of which the long - process output was 184.87 tons (- 5.38) and the short - process output was 29.78 tons (- 0.42) [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 39.87%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points from the previous week, changing from an increase to a decrease [71]. - **Real - Estate 30 - City Sales High - frequency Data**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons; the apparent demand was 321.27 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.52 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [79]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Regional Social Inventory**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Plate Demand (Cold - Hot Price Difference)**: As of August 22, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton (+ 10) [86]. - **Export Situation**: As of August 21, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars (-), the export profit was - 2 US dollars (+ 2.5); the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 2.2284 million tons (- 841,500 tons) [90].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in iron ore prices, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Iron ore spot prices closed at 835 CNY/ton, a 4% increase month-on-month, while the DCE iron ore index closed at 831 CNY/ton, up 3.5% [9]. - Daily average trading volume for iron ore options was 347,985 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase, while total open interest was 360,031 contracts, reflecting a decrease [10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in iron water production, but a significant recovery in profit per ton of steel [18]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Review - Iron ore spot prices increased by 4% month-on-month, with the DCE iron ore index rising by 3.5% [9]. 1.2 Options Market Review - Daily average trading volume for I2505 series options rose to 102,964 contracts, with total open interest increasing to 315,120 contracts [13]. - The implied volatility for the main contract series options remained stable at 28% [14]. - The short-term historical volatility for iron ore was recorded at 24%, which is below the average level [16]. 1.3 Options Strategy Recommendation - The report recommends a strategy of buying put spreads, as the iron ore price is expected to maintain a strong performance despite slight declines in production and inventory levels [18].