2025年10月20日 关注会议精神 低位震荡运行 黑色金属周报-钢材 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 第二部分 供需基本面 1 关注会议精神 低位震荡运行 本周国内钢材现货价格小幅波动，截至周六，华东上海螺纹3170元（+10）；上海热卷3270元， （-10）。 截至10月16日，五大品种钢材整体产量降6.36万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降16.14吨，社库 降2.32吨。表观需875.41万吨，环比增139.96万吨。截至10月17日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长 流程现金含税成本3133.5元，点对点利润36.5元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润36.5元左右。电 炉端，华东（富宝口径）平电电炉成本在3300元左右，谷电成本在3170左右，华东螺纹平电利润- 260元左右，谷电利润-130元。 废钢端，截止10月16日，张家港废钢价格2140元/吨，环比下降10元/吨。数据显示，89家独 立电弧炉企业产能利用率34.4%，环比回升3.7个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗52.3万吨，环比回升 1.25万吨；其中，132家长流程钢 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The game in the steel market intensifies, and the market will continue to fluctuate. After the military parade, the supply pressure quickly rebounds due to the recovery of production. The current supply - demand gap remains at a relatively high level, lacking the impetus for a rebound. After the contraction of ton - steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down, and the raw material varieties are significantly differentiated. In the short term, it is still mainly about squeezing profits, and the difficulty of unilateral operation increases. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price - As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] Production - As of September 11, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 3.41 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 6.75 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10.9 tons. The 247 - steel - enterprise blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.2% on September 12, up 5.12% from September 5, and the daily average molten iron output was 240.6 tons, up 5.12% [7][12][42] Inventory - As of September 11, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.5 tons, and the social inventory increased by 17.41 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 166.63 tons (-4.71), the social inventory was 487.23 tons (+18.57), and the total inventory was 653.86 tons (+13.86). The hot - rolled coil factory inventory increased by 0.9 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1.92 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.02 tons [7][12][72] Demand - The apparent demand for five major steel products was 843.33 tons, up 15.5 tons week - on - week. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.16 tons, up 20.8 tons week - on - week [7][75] Scrap Steel - As of September 11, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 35.1%, up 1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.7 tons, up 0.62 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.5 tons, down 2.04 tons (a 4% decrease), and the scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 428.5 tons, down 14.07 tons (a 3.2% decrease) [8] 2. Macroeconomic Data Steel Output - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons (a 1.7% decrease) compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons (a 2.3% decrease) compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] Financial Data - In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016 [20] PMI - The PMI in August 2025 was 49.4% [23] Investment Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [26] Real Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%, the newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%, and the completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [29] 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar remained at a high level this week [39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore ran smoothly, with port inventories showing a continuous downward trend and prices remaining relatively stable. However, the supply pressure increased as the current shipment reached a new high for the year, with significant increases in Brazil and non - mainstream mines, and obvious rebounds in arrivals. On the demand side, the molten iron output continued to decline month - on - month, and the northern production restrictions at the end of the month would cause periodic disturbances to demand, weakening the supply - demand situation. In terms of valuation, after the finished product prices fell, the spot and futures profits shrank significantly, causing price pressure adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support around $90, and cautious operations are recommended [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: In August, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with monthly increases ranging from 12 - 30 yuan. As of August 29, the Platts 62% index was at $103.6, up $4.55 month - on - month, equivalent to about 860 yuan in RMB. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore was at par with the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory was 143.88 million tons, a decrease of 560,000 tons from the previous period, 12.22 million tons from the beginning of the year, and 16.91 million tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may increase slightly in the next period [6]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume in this period was 3.5568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 241,000 tons. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.8081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 115,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.8115 million tons, a decrease of 69,500 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4504 million tons, a decrease of 207,800 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 996,600 tons, an increase of 185,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 240,130 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 6,200 tons per day. There were 4 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, the molten iron output may continue to decline in the next period [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: As of August 29, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal was PB powder [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period**: As of August 29, the spread between iron ore 09 and 01 contracts was 15.5 (-3.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **High - Low Grade Price Difference**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **Premium Index**: As of August 28, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1835 (+0.0025), and that for 65% pellets was 16.4 (+0.4) [26]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: The content presents the inventory trends and premium (discount) situations of various iron ore brands in 15 ports [29]. - **Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, the imported sintered fine ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1.206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%, and the domestic sintered fine ore inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.94% [32]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: As of August 29, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.0072 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%, and the daily consumption was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [35]. - **Port Inventory, Berthing**: The content shows the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores in 45 ports [38]. - **Port Inventory - By Ore Type**: As of August 29, the imported port lump ore inventory was 1.654 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%; the pellet ore inventory was 283,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%; the iron concentrate inventory was 1.113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; and the coarse powder inventory was 10.713 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20% [41]. - **Siltage**: The content presents the historical siltage volume data from 2020 - 2025 [44]. - **Iron Ore Floating Quantity**: The content shows the floating quantity trends of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: The content presents the import quantity trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [50][51][57]. - **Australia's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Australia's shipment to China was 1.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53%, and the total shipment was 1.812 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% [60]. - **Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Brazil's shipment to the world was 997,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.78% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: As of August 29, the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 2.112 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Among them, Vale's shipment volume increased significantly, while Rio Tinto's decreased [66]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: As of August 29, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, and the arrival volume at northern ports was 1.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% [73]. - **Freight**: The content shows the historical freight trends from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: As of August 29, the iron concentrate output of mines was 76,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%, and the inventory was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [77]. - **Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization**: As of August 29, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and the average daily molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [79]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the daily pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [84]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The content shows the pig iron production trends of the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China [87]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic steel prices fluctuated and declined. The main driving force for the decline was the seasonal weakening of off - season consumption, continuous high production, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. After the decline in steel prices, the spot and futures profits per ton of steel continued to shrink. There was an expectation of a decline in hot metal production before the parade, and the raw material support was insufficient. In the short term, there might be a downward resonance. After September 3rd, attention should be paid to the recovery speed of supply and demand, and it was expected that the inventory would continue to accumulate. In terms of valuation, the October contract had returned to the delivery logic, and the January contract of rebar had fallen below the long - process cost. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the intensity of production cuts, and the cost pressure of off - peak electricity should be noted during the rebound [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Production - In August, domestic steel spot prices fell. As of the end of August, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton. As of August 28th, the overall output of the five major steel products increased by 6.55 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.33 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 29.17 tons, and the apparent demand was 857.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.78 tons [7] Profit - As of August 28th, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive tax cost of rebar was 3152 yuan/ton, and the point - to - point profit was about 108 yuan; the cash - inclusive tax profit of hot - rolled coil was about 158 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market in East China, the cost of flat - rate electricity was about 3346 yuan/ton, and the cost of off - peak electricity was about 3218 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar with flat - rate electricity was about - 146 yuan/ton, and the profit with off - peak electricity was about - 18 yuan/ton [7] Scrap Steel - As of August 28th, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27 tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 tons. The average daily arrival of scrap steel at 255 sample steel mills was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96 tons, a decline of 5.4%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 451.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.67 tons, a decline of 2.1% [8] Macro Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 17% year - on - year [23] - From January to July 2025, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 638731 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The new construction area was 35206 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed area was 25034 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [26] Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to be strong [37] Supply Long - Process Supply - As of August 29th, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the average daily hot metal output was 240.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [40] Short - Process Supply - As of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 34.7%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 15.18 yuan, an increase of 4.31 yuan [43] Demand Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220.56 tons, an increase of 5.91 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 189.2 tons, an increase of 4.43 tons; the short - process output was 31.2 tons, an increase of 1.42 tons [56] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 169.62 tons, a decrease of 4.19 tons; the social inventory was 453.77 tons, an increase of 21.26 tons; the total inventory was 623.39 tons, an increase of 16.35 tons [71] Hot - Rolled Coil - This week, the output of hot - rolled coil was 324.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons; the apparent demand was 320.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.79 tons, the social inventory increased by 3.23 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 4.02 tons [74] Export - As of August 29th, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, the export profit was 0.5 US dollars, an increase of 2.5 US dollars; the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 225.58 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons [87]

Report Information - Report Title: "Black Metal Weekly - Steel" [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained fluctuating at a high level, and the supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. Due to the expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade, raw material prices were firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no driving force for a sharp decline. The short - term trend may be volatile, and the valuation of the 01 - contract rebar may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Conclusion - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained at a high - level fluctuation. The supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. The expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade made raw material prices firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no deep - decline driving force. The short - term may show a volatile trend, and the 01 - contract rebar valuation may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Part 2: Supply - Demand Fundamentals Price - Last week, domestic steel spot prices declined. In East China, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan (- 40), Tangshan rebar was 3170 yuan (- 60); for hot - rolled coils, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (- 70), Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan (- 40) [9]. Production - As of August 21, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.9 tons per day, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 tons; the short - process daily consumption was 17.7 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons [8][10][79]. Inventory - As of August 21, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.3 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 26.37 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The original sample rebar factory inventory was 174.53 tons (+ 2.27), the social inventory was 432.51 tons (+ 17.58), and the total inventory was 607.04 tons (+ 19.85). For hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [8][10][79]. Cost and Profit - As of August 22, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3147.5 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 102.5 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 152.5 yuan. The flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3344 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3216 yuan, with a flat - rate electricity profit of about 138 yuan and an off - peak electricity profit of - 26 yuan [8]. Macro Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024. In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016. The PMI in July was 49.3%. From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; the manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; the real - estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][22][27]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [30]. Other Parts - **Main Variety Basis**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Main Variety Inter - period**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Arbitrage Strategy Tracking**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Supply (Long - process)**: As of August 22, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3% (+ 0.03), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.8 tons (+ 0.09) [44]. - **Supply (Short - process)**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 35.7% (- 0.6); as of August 22, the iron - scrap price difference was 10.87 yuan (+ 48.2) [47]. - **Scrap Steel Arrival**: The total daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 53.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.47 tons, an increase of 9% [8]. - **Scrap Steel Daily Consumption**: The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [8]. - **Scrap Steel Inventory in Steel Mills**: The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7% [8]. - **Rebar Production**: The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), of which the long - process output was 184.87 tons (- 5.38) and the short - process output was 29.78 tons (- 0.42) [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 39.87%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points from the previous week, changing from an increase to a decrease [71]. - **Real - Estate 30 - City Sales High - frequency Data**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons; the apparent demand was 321.27 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.52 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [79]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Regional Social Inventory**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Plate Demand (Cold - Hot Price Difference)**: As of August 22, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton (+ 10) [86]. - **Export Situation**: As of August 21, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars (-), the export profit was - 2 US dollars (+ 2.5); the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 2.2284 million tons (- 841,500 tons) [90].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in iron ore prices, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Iron ore spot prices closed at 835 CNY/ton, a 4% increase month-on-month, while the DCE iron ore index closed at 831 CNY/ton, up 3.5% [9]. - Daily average trading volume for iron ore options was 347,985 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase, while total open interest was 360,031 contracts, reflecting a decrease [10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in iron water production, but a significant recovery in profit per ton of steel [18]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Review - Iron ore spot prices increased by 4% month-on-month, with the DCE iron ore index rising by 3.5% [9]. 1.2 Options Market Review - Daily average trading volume for I2505 series options rose to 102,964 contracts, with total open interest increasing to 315,120 contracts [13]. - The implied volatility for the main contract series options remained stable at 28% [14]. - The short-term historical volatility for iron ore was recorded at 24%, which is below the average level [16]. 1.3 Options Strategy Recommendation - The report recommends a strategy of buying put spreads, as the iron ore price is expected to maintain a strong performance despite slight declines in production and inventory levels [18].