1背后逻辑 2022年以来，螺矿比持续走低。截至2025年11月底，该比值接近历史低点。本文通过复盘螺矿比的历史 走势，以及这两个品种的基本面情况，梳理背后的逻辑，以便更好地把握当前的行情。 历史上螺矿比上升趋势可以分两类：一种是在历史波动中枢中（4~6），螺矿比从中枢下沿上涨至上 沿；第二种是螺矿比向上突破中枢上沿，也就是从6向上突破的阶段。本文重点选取2014—2015年和 2017—2018年螺矿比的上涨行情进行复盘。 2014—2015年螺矿比从中枢下沿上涨到中枢上沿 2014年1月—2015年3月，螺矿比从3.7上涨至6.2，当时螺纹钢和铁矿石价格延续下跌走势，铁矿石价格 跌幅大于螺纹钢，导致价差走强。其间有三次明显的上升行情：分别是2014年1—6月、2014年9—11月 及2015年3月三个时间段。 2014年，铁矿石供应增幅高于需求增幅，港口库存在6月创历史新高，螺矿比从3向上修复至5。2014— 2015年是铁矿石新增产能集中释放期，供应能力大幅增加。在需求增速（粗钢产量）大幅降低的情况 下，供应增速还在攀升。2013年8月—2014年6月期间，铁矿石港口库存持续上升，从7200万吨上涨至 ...

| 1.上周15个省份的钢厂涉及产线检修、复产、其中检修产线25条、环比增加14条、复产产线2条，环比减少4条；产线检修影响产量3.78万吨，环比增加5.25万吨，预计 | | --- | | 本周产线检修影响产量44.3万吨。 | | 2.多地启动重污染天气位急响立、2月7日17时起，洛阳启动重污染天气橙色（互视频警响应、长沙12月7日20时启动重污染天气 级例应描施。沧州、邯郸、邢台、西安 | | 于12月8日12时启动重污染天气工级应急响应。 | | 3.2025年12月1日-5日，全国螺纹钢均价3326元/吨，周环比上涨1.06%。供应端，螺纹钢周产量189.31万吨，环比下降8.14%，库存503.81万吨，环比下降5.21%; | | 需求端,消费量216.98万吨,环比下降4.81%。 | | 4.12月5日,全国主港铁矿石成交86.40万吨,环比减31.8%;237家主流贸易商建筑钢材成交8.82万吨,环比减6.1%。 | | 5上周，金国90家独立电巡炉钢厂平均产能利用率53.82%，环比上开1.1个百分点，同比上升0.43个百分点；平均开工率67.72%，环比下降1.41个百分点，同比下降 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The investment performance in October was still weak, with further declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate, indicating poor domestic demand. However, exports maintained strong resilience, with the advantage of trading volume for price still intact [9] - The steel industry is currently in a production - cut phase. Since steel profit per ton has not suffered significant losses, production reduction has been slow, and inventory depletion of products like hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production may still have room to decline [9] - With insufficient driving forces and intensified long - short battles, the short - term fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 and valley - electricity cost. Prudent operation is recommended [9] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Output - Last week, domestic steel spot prices were consolidating. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3160 yuan, and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan [7] - On November 13, the total output of five major steel products decreased by 22.36 tons. The factory inventory of five major products decreased by 12.61 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 13.61 tons. The apparent demand was 860.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 tons [7] - As of November 14, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive cost of rebar was 3181 yuan, with a profit of about - 21 yuan; the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 22 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - electricity cost of rebar was about 3262 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3131 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 202 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 71 yuan [7] Scrap Steel - As of November 13, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [8] - The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 50.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.1 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, an increase of 0.3% [8] - The average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 492.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.58 tons, an increase of 1.4% [8] Other Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023 [18] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 711 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the same period in 2024; the cumulative crude steel output was 818 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] - The PMI in October 2025 was 49% [22] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% year - on - year [26] - From January to October, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9% [29] 2. Main Variety Basis and Spread - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar shrank [39] 3. Supply Long - Process Supply - As of November 14, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points or 1.13%. The average daily pig iron output was 236.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons or 1.14% [42] Short - Process Supply - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. As of November 14, the iron - scrap price difference was 35.6 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan [45] Rebar Production - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 1.7191 million tons, a decrease of 73,800 tons; the short - process output was 28,090 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [57] 4. Demand Building Materials Transactions - Data on building materials transactions in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [60][62][63] Cement Mill Operating Rate - The average operating load of national cement mills was 37.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points, and the decline rate widened by 0.18 percentage points. Market demand mostly decreased, showing strong off - season characteristics [68] Real Estate Sales - Data on the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70] Rebar Inventory - This period, the original sample factory inventory of rebar was 1.6042 million tons, a decrease of 64,200 tons; the social inventory was 4.1575 million tons, a decrease of 99,500 tons; the total inventory was 5.7617 million tons, a decrease of 163,700 tons [74] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 313,660 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons. The apparent demand was 313,590 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 900 tons, the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the total inventory increased by 700 tons [77] Plate Demand - As of November 14, the cold - hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 610 yuan/ton [84] Export Situation - As of November 14, China's FOB export price was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 23.3 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.3176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 399,100 tons or 13.7% [87]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held to study suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and deployed later economic work. Attention should be paid to expected fluctuations [8]. - From a fundamental perspective, the current high supply is the main factor suppressing price rebounds. The demand side is weak, and the supply - demand gap remains at a high level. For different varieties, both production and sales of rebar are weak, and it may continue to test the integer - level support in the short term. The production of hot - rolled coils is high, and inventory continues to accumulate. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are weaker than those of rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar may continue to shrink [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Price and Output**: As of Saturday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3170 yuan (+10), and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3270 yuan (-10). As of October 16, the overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 63600 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 16140 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 2320 tons. The apparent demand was 8.7541 million tons, an increase of 1.3996 million tons month - on - month [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of October 16, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34.4%, a rebound of 3.7 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 523000 tons, a rebound of 12500 tons month - on - month. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 252000 tons/day, a decrease of 6600 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17100 tons, a rebound of 1820 tons, an increase of 12%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 520000 tons, a rebound of 20700 tons, an increase of 4.1%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.795 million tons, a rebound of 265700 tons, an increase of 5.9% [7]. - **Production and Inventory of Major Steel Products**: From August to October 2025, the production and inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils showed different trends. For example, in the latest week, the rebar production was 201160 tons (-22400 tons compared with the previous week), and the total inventory was 641050 tons (-185900 tons compared with the previous week) [10]. - **Macro - economic Data**: In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative output of pig iron was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period in 2024. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) increased by - 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by - 1.92% year - on - year; real estate development investment increased by - 21.28% year - on - year [16][25]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.52165 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was 222.28 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [28] 2. Main Variety Basis - Not provided in the content 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to decline [37] 4. Supply (Long - process) - As of October 17, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared with October 10, a decrease of 0.24%. The average daily pig iron output was 241000 tons, a decrease of 590 tons compared with October 10, a decrease of 0.24% [40] 5. Supply (Short - process) - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 34.4% (+3.7). As of October 17, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 25.65 yuan (-12.76) [43] 6. Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 201160 tons (-22400 tons). Among them, the long - process output was 174730 tons (-53800 tons), and the short - process output was 26430 tons (+31400 tons) [55] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 184640 tons (-7700 tons), the social inventory was 456410 tons (-108900 tons), and the total inventory was 641050 tons (-185900 tons) [71] 7. Hot - rolled Coils - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 321840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14500 tons. The apparent demand was 315550 tons, a month - on - month rebound of 245800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 57500 tons, the social inventory increased by 120400 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 62900 tons [74] 8. Export Situation - As of October 17, the FOB export price of China was 460 US dollars (-20), and the export profit was - 3.1 US dollars (-4.3). The outbound volume of major domestic ports (32 ports) was 2.9681 million tons (+810100 tons), a month - on - month increase of 37.5% [86]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The game in the steel market intensifies, and the market will continue to fluctuate. After the military parade, the supply pressure quickly rebounds due to the recovery of production. The current supply - demand gap remains at a relatively high level, lacking the impetus for a rebound. After the contraction of ton - steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down, and the raw material varieties are significantly differentiated. In the short term, it is still mainly about squeezing profits, and the difficulty of unilateral operation increases. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price - As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] Production - As of September 11, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 3.41 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 6.75 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10.9 tons. The 247 - steel - enterprise blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.2% on September 12, up 5.12% from September 5, and the daily average molten iron output was 240.6 tons, up 5.12% [7][12][42] Inventory - As of September 11, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.5 tons, and the social inventory increased by 17.41 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 166.63 tons (-4.71), the social inventory was 487.23 tons (+18.57), and the total inventory was 653.86 tons (+13.86). The hot - rolled coil factory inventory increased by 0.9 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1.92 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.02 tons [7][12][72] Demand - The apparent demand for five major steel products was 843.33 tons, up 15.5 tons week - on - week. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.16 tons, up 20.8 tons week - on - week [7][75] Scrap Steel - As of September 11, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 35.1%, up 1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.7 tons, up 0.62 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.5 tons, down 2.04 tons (a 4% decrease), and the scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 428.5 tons, down 14.07 tons (a 3.2% decrease) [8] 2. Macroeconomic Data Steel Output - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons (a 1.7% decrease) compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons (a 2.3% decrease) compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] Financial Data - In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016 [20] PMI - The PMI in August 2025 was 49.4% [23] Investment Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [26] Real Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%, the newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%, and the completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [29] 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar remained at a high level this week [39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore ran smoothly, with port inventories showing a continuous downward trend and prices remaining relatively stable. However, the supply pressure increased as the current shipment reached a new high for the year, with significant increases in Brazil and non - mainstream mines, and obvious rebounds in arrivals. On the demand side, the molten iron output continued to decline month - on - month, and the northern production restrictions at the end of the month would cause periodic disturbances to demand, weakening the supply - demand situation. In terms of valuation, after the finished product prices fell, the spot and futures profits shrank significantly, causing price pressure adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support around $90, and cautious operations are recommended [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: In August, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with monthly increases ranging from 12 - 30 yuan. As of August 29, the Platts 62% index was at $103.6, up $4.55 month - on - month, equivalent to about 860 yuan in RMB. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore was at par with the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory was 143.88 million tons, a decrease of 560,000 tons from the previous period, 12.22 million tons from the beginning of the year, and 16.91 million tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may increase slightly in the next period [6]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume in this period was 3.5568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 241,000 tons. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.8081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 115,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.8115 million tons, a decrease of 69,500 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4504 million tons, a decrease of 207,800 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 996,600 tons, an increase of 185,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 240,130 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 6,200 tons per day. There were 4 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, the molten iron output may continue to decline in the next period [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: As of August 29, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal was PB powder [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period**: As of August 29, the spread between iron ore 09 and 01 contracts was 15.5 (-3.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **High - Low Grade Price Difference**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **Premium Index**: As of August 28, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1835 (+0.0025), and that for 65% pellets was 16.4 (+0.4) [26]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: The content presents the inventory trends and premium (discount) situations of various iron ore brands in 15 ports [29]. - **Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, the imported sintered fine ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1.206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%, and the domestic sintered fine ore inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.94% [32]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: As of August 29, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.0072 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%, and the daily consumption was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [35]. - **Port Inventory, Berthing**: The content shows the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores in 45 ports [38]. - **Port Inventory - By Ore Type**: As of August 29, the imported port lump ore inventory was 1.654 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%; the pellet ore inventory was 283,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%; the iron concentrate inventory was 1.113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; and the coarse powder inventory was 10.713 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20% [41]. - **Siltage**: The content presents the historical siltage volume data from 2020 - 2025 [44]. - **Iron Ore Floating Quantity**: The content shows the floating quantity trends of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: The content presents the import quantity trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [50][51][57]. - **Australia's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Australia's shipment to China was 1.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53%, and the total shipment was 1.812 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% [60]. - **Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Brazil's shipment to the world was 997,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.78% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: As of August 29, the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 2.112 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Among them, Vale's shipment volume increased significantly, while Rio Tinto's decreased [66]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: As of August 29, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, and the arrival volume at northern ports was 1.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% [73]. - **Freight**: The content shows the historical freight trends from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: As of August 29, the iron concentrate output of mines was 76,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%, and the inventory was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [77]. - **Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization**: As of August 29, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and the average daily molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [79]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the daily pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [84]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The content shows the pig iron production trends of the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China [87]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic steel prices fluctuated and declined. The main driving force for the decline was the seasonal weakening of off - season consumption, continuous high production, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. After the decline in steel prices, the spot and futures profits per ton of steel continued to shrink. There was an expectation of a decline in hot metal production before the parade, and the raw material support was insufficient. In the short term, there might be a downward resonance. After September 3rd, attention should be paid to the recovery speed of supply and demand, and it was expected that the inventory would continue to accumulate. In terms of valuation, the October contract had returned to the delivery logic, and the January contract of rebar had fallen below the long - process cost. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the intensity of production cuts, and the cost pressure of off - peak electricity should be noted during the rebound [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Production - In August, domestic steel spot prices fell. As of the end of August, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton. As of August 28th, the overall output of the five major steel products increased by 6.55 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.33 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 29.17 tons, and the apparent demand was 857.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.78 tons [7] Profit - As of August 28th, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive tax cost of rebar was 3152 yuan/ton, and the point - to - point profit was about 108 yuan; the cash - inclusive tax profit of hot - rolled coil was about 158 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market in East China, the cost of flat - rate electricity was about 3346 yuan/ton, and the cost of off - peak electricity was about 3218 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar with flat - rate electricity was about - 146 yuan/ton, and the profit with off - peak electricity was about - 18 yuan/ton [7] Scrap Steel - As of August 28th, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27 tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 tons. The average daily arrival of scrap steel at 255 sample steel mills was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96 tons, a decline of 5.4%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 451.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.67 tons, a decline of 2.1% [8] Macro Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 17% year - on - year [23] - From January to July 2025, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 638731 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The new construction area was 35206 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed area was 25034 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [26] Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to be strong [37] Supply Long - Process Supply - As of August 29th, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the average daily hot metal output was 240.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [40] Short - Process Supply - As of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 34.7%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 15.18 yuan, an increase of 4.31 yuan [43] Demand Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220.56 tons, an increase of 5.91 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 189.2 tons, an increase of 4.43 tons; the short - process output was 31.2 tons, an increase of 1.42 tons [56] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 169.62 tons, a decrease of 4.19 tons; the social inventory was 453.77 tons, an increase of 21.26 tons; the total inventory was 623.39 tons, an increase of 16.35 tons [71] Hot - Rolled Coil - This week, the output of hot - rolled coil was 324.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons; the apparent demand was 320.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.79 tons, the social inventory increased by 3.23 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 4.02 tons [74] Export - As of August 29th, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, the export profit was 0.5 US dollars, an increase of 2.5 US dollars; the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 225.58 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons [87]

Report Information - Report Title: "Black Metal Weekly - Steel" [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained fluctuating at a high level, and the supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. Due to the expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade, raw material prices were firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no driving force for a sharp decline. The short - term trend may be volatile, and the valuation of the 01 - contract rebar may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Conclusion - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained at a high - level fluctuation. The supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. The expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade made raw material prices firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no deep - decline driving force. The short - term may show a volatile trend, and the 01 - contract rebar valuation may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Part 2: Supply - Demand Fundamentals Price - Last week, domestic steel spot prices declined. In East China, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan (- 40), Tangshan rebar was 3170 yuan (- 60); for hot - rolled coils, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (- 70), Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan (- 40) [9]. Production - As of August 21, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.9 tons per day, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 tons; the short - process daily consumption was 17.7 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons [8][10][79]. Inventory - As of August 21, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.3 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 26.37 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The original sample rebar factory inventory was 174.53 tons (+ 2.27), the social inventory was 432.51 tons (+ 17.58), and the total inventory was 607.04 tons (+ 19.85). For hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [8][10][79]. Cost and Profit - As of August 22, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3147.5 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 102.5 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 152.5 yuan. The flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3344 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3216 yuan, with a flat - rate electricity profit of about 138 yuan and an off - peak electricity profit of - 26 yuan [8]. Macro Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024. In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016. The PMI in July was 49.3%. From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; the manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; the real - estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][22][27]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [30]. Other Parts - **Main Variety Basis**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Main Variety Inter - period**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Arbitrage Strategy Tracking**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Supply (Long - process)**: As of August 22, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3% (+ 0.03), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.8 tons (+ 0.09) [44]. - **Supply (Short - process)**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 35.7% (- 0.6); as of August 22, the iron - scrap price difference was 10.87 yuan (+ 48.2) [47]. - **Scrap Steel Arrival**: The total daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 53.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.47 tons, an increase of 9% [8]. - **Scrap Steel Daily Consumption**: The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [8]. - **Scrap Steel Inventory in Steel Mills**: The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7% [8]. - **Rebar Production**: The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), of which the long - process output was 184.87 tons (- 5.38) and the short - process output was 29.78 tons (- 0.42) [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 39.87%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points from the previous week, changing from an increase to a decrease [71]. - **Real - Estate 30 - City Sales High - frequency Data**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons; the apparent demand was 321.27 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.52 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [79]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Regional Social Inventory**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Plate Demand (Cold - Hot Price Difference)**: As of August 22, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton (+ 10) [86]. - **Export Situation**: As of August 21, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars (-), the export profit was - 2 US dollars (+ 2.5); the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 2.2284 million tons (- 841,500 tons) [90].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in iron ore prices, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Iron ore spot prices closed at 835 CNY/ton, a 4% increase month-on-month, while the DCE iron ore index closed at 831 CNY/ton, up 3.5% [9]. - Daily average trading volume for iron ore options was 347,985 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase, while total open interest was 360,031 contracts, reflecting a decrease [10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in iron water production, but a significant recovery in profit per ton of steel [18]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Review - Iron ore spot prices increased by 4% month-on-month, with the DCE iron ore index rising by 3.5% [9]. 1.2 Options Market Review - Daily average trading volume for I2505 series options rose to 102,964 contracts, with total open interest increasing to 315,120 contracts [13]. - The implied volatility for the main contract series options remained stable at 28% [14]. - The short-term historical volatility for iron ore was recorded at 24%, which is below the average level [16]. 1.3 Options Strategy Recommendation - The report recommends a strategy of buying put spreads, as the iron ore price is expected to maintain a strong performance despite slight declines in production and inventory levels [18].