Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the steel market trading is expected to weaken. The demand for rebar will decline due to the Spring Festival and weather, and the post - holiday resumption expectation is crucial. Hot - rolled coil demand will also weaken, but it has some resilience. The high post - holiday inventory and supply will suppress prices, and the inventory depletion intensity is the focus of market game. The "two new" policies may bring phased opportunities for the manufacturing industry. The short - term steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions and will mainly fluctuate sideways [5]. - The core contradiction of iron ore in February is the game between short - term restocking demand and long - term supply - demand relaxation. Pre - holiday restocking by steel mills will support prices, but during the Spring Festival, the port inventory may increase passively. After the holiday, high inventory will suppress prices, but the post - holiday "golden March and silver April" expectation and macro - policies may provide some support [8]. Summary by Directory 1.后市预判 (Outlook) - Steel: In February, market trading before the Spring Festival will weaken. Rebar demand will be affected by the holiday and weather, and the post - holiday resumption is key. Hot - rolled coil demand will also decline, but has some resilience. High post - holiday inventory and supply will pressure prices, and inventory depletion is the focus. The "two new" policies may bring opportunities. Short - term steel fundamentals are stable with sideways fluctuations [5]. - Iron ore: The core is the game between short - term restocking and long - term supply - demand. Pre - holiday restocking supports prices, during the holiday port inventory may rise. After the holiday, high inventory suppresses prices, but post - holiday expectations and policies may support [8]. 2.产业动态 (Industry Dynamics) - Steel winter storage expectations are low, and electric arc furnace steel mills will stop production during the Spring Festival. Only 40% of northwest construction steel traders plan to winter - store, with an expected selling price of 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton. Shandong steel traders' winter - storage volume is expected to be 24.35 tons, a 38.35% year - on - year decrease, with a psychological price of 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton. In the northeast, hot - rolled coil forms an independent market due to logistics. Only 10.6% of merchants plan to winter - store, 14.5% are on the sidelines, and 74.9% have no plan. Anhui steel traders' winter - storage enthusiasm has declined significantly, with "passive winter - storage" and "low - volume trial" as the main modes. Four out of ten sample steel mills in Henan will stop production or conduct maintenance during the holiday, and the rest will maintain normal production and have winter - storage plans. About 20% of short - flow steel enterprises in Guangdong will stop production in mid - to late January, and over 60% will stop in early February, with most resuming production in early March. In Guangxi, 1 steel mill plans to stop production at the end of January, and 4 plan to stop in mid - to early February, resuming production after the Lantern Festival [11][12]. 3.数据分析 (Data Analysis) - **Steel Supply**: Since January, rebar production has changed little from last year and remained low, while hot - rolled coil production has declined. As of January 30, the weekly actual rebar production was 199.83 tons, an increase of 22.16 tons from last year, and hot - rolled coil was 309 tons, a decrease of 14.22 tons. In February, production is expected to remain low, especially for independent electric arc furnace steel mills, whose production suspension scope will expand, and blast furnace large - scale resumption is unlikely [14]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, rebar inventory in steel mills was 149.13 tons, a decrease of 53.72 tons from last year, and social inventory in 35 cities was 326.4 tons, a decrease of 123.88 tons. Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 77.25 tons, a decrease of 17.55 tons, and social inventory in 33 cities was 278.33 tons, a decrease of 15.49 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory depletion is better than rebar. Rebar demand is weak due to construction site shutdowns, while hot - rolled coil demand in manufacturing has more resilience [15]. - **Exports**: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a record high, with 119 million tons exported, a 7.5% year - on - year increase, and an average export price of 694 US dollars/ton, an 8.1% decrease. "Steel + billet" equivalent crude steel exports were 138 million tons, a 14.3% increase. Hot - rolled coil exports declined due to overseas anti - dumping duties, while rebar exports increased due to high demand in "Belt and Road" countries. The 2026 steel export license policy may affect short - term exports but optimize the long - term structure [18]. - **Consumption**: Rebar consumption decreased seasonally before the Spring Festival. As of January 30, the apparent consumption was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 24.04 tons from the beginning of the month. Cement weekly shipments also declined. As of January 27, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.68%, with non - housing projects at 60.64% and housing projects at 54.99%. Hot - rolled coil consumption showed "seasonal pressure but resilience". As of January 30, the weekly consumption was 311.41 tons. In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%. In January, there was some year - end rush demand in manufacturing, but demand is expected to decline in February, and attention should be paid to post - holiday resumption and "two new" policy funds [20][21]. - **Iron Ore Import**: As of the week of January 23, the global iron ore shipment was 2978.3 tons, and the arrival at 45 Chinese ports was 2530 tons. In January, shipments were significantly higher than last year, and arrivals also increased. In 2025, China's iron ore imports reached a new high, with a cumulative import of 1260.22 million tons, a 1.78% increase. In December, the import was 119.647 million tons, a 6.36% increase [27]. - **Supply Structure**: In January, the shipment of non - mainstream iron ore remained stable. On January 17, 2026, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at Ma'jishan Port in Zhejiang. The second shipment was on the way. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea can supply 120 million tons of high - quality iron ore annually after reaching full production, which helps diversify import sources [29]. - **Inventory and Shipment**: Recently, the port iron ore shipment has increased, and steel mill inventory has also risen. Due to concentrated arrivals, port inventory increased instead of decreasing. As of January 30, the inventory at 45 ports was 1702.226 million tons, an increase of 10.5137 million tons from the beginning of the month, and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 996.8 million tons, an increase of 10.2205 million tons. The daily port shipment was 332.31 tons, an increase of 7.1 tons from the beginning of the month [32]. - **Trading Volume**: As of the week of January 23, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports was 97.5 tons, and the forward spot was 103.3 tons. Spot trading was stable due to sufficient supply and limited demand. Forward trading was relatively active as steel mills aimed to avoid post - holiday risks and take advantage of price differences [33]. - **Iron Ore Consumption**: As of January 30, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 227.98 tons, and the daily average iron ore consumption was 280.96 tons. Pig iron output has fluctuated around 228 tons for weeks. Due to weak demand and safety inspections, iron ore consumption decreased steadily, and without significant profit improvement and demand recovery, iron ore prices will be suppressed [35]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 29, the price difference between rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 151 yuan/ton, and it has fluctuated within a range since January. The basis between steel and iron ore futures and spot prices was stable, with similar trends and amplitudes. Weak winter demand in the spot market and lack of significant improvement in market expectations in the futures market make it difficult for the basis to expand [37][40].