热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 众所周知，冬储曾是冬季钢材市场的一大特色，是钢贸商博取春节后行情的一种手段。 最近两年，钢贸商出于稳健考量，主动冬储意愿进一步降低，大幅减少冬储量，或直接放弃冬储。华宝 期货黑色分析师赵毅说，根据调研数据，今年明确主动冬储的企业占比不足30%，企业更多是被动冬 储，也有超三成的企业放弃冬储。今年春节时间较晚，考虑到节后工地复工多在农历正月十五之后，钢 材的需求空置期较以往更长，企业的冬储意愿进一步降低。 "近几年，在需求下行的背景下，建筑钢材行情节后多数走弱，市场冬储获利连年落空，钢贸商对冬储 的热情下降明显，今年冬储也已接近尾声，主动冬储的客户不多，大部分商家选择观望。"宝城期货黑 色系研究员涂伟华说。 钢贸商当前囤货情况如何？赵毅告诉记者，尽管冬储意愿较低，但现在已经进入社会库存累积阶段。根 据钢联数据，截至2月5日当周，螺纹钢总库存为519.57万吨，环比上升44.04万吨，同比下降185.81万 吨。其中，社会库存为365.92万吨，环比上升39.52万吨；钢厂库存为153.65万吨，环比上升4.52万吨。 由此可见，螺 ...

钢贸商当前囤货情况如何？赵毅告诉记者，尽管冬储意愿较低，但现在已经进入社会库存累积阶段。根 据钢联数据，截至2月5日当周，螺纹钢总库存为519.57万吨，环比上升44.04万吨，同比下降185.81万 吨。其中，社会库存为365.92万吨，环比上升39.52万吨；钢厂库存为153.65万吨，环比上升4.52万吨。 由此可见，螺纹钢累库的主要增量来自社会端。社会库存的上升更多是钢贸商被动冬储行为导致的。也 就是说，由于冬季建筑施工需求快速萎缩，叠加春节假期因素，贸易商的库存无法继续向下传导，而钢 厂资源到货行为仍在延续，引发了社会库存走高。目前市场上的投机性囤货量较往年大幅降低，更倾向 于轻库存、快周转的业务模式。当前的社库累积情况更多是供需错配导致。 "目前来看，商家对后期行情预期偏谨慎，主动冬储意愿不强，多数处于被动冬储状态，且各地表现也 有差异。据钢联调研，杭州地区贸易商的积极性相对较强，目前已经明确冬储政策的钢厂的建材计划量 在113.5万吨左右，要高于去年，但多数是以后结算模式、期现套利介入为主，主动博行情占比有限。 其他地区冬储意愿较为有限，河南地区商家冬储意愿不强，今年冬储的客户数量以及冬储量为近 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the steel market trading is expected to weaken. The demand for rebar will decline due to the Spring Festival and weather, and the post - holiday resumption expectation is crucial. Hot - rolled coil demand will also weaken, but it has some resilience. The high post - holiday inventory and supply will suppress prices, and the inventory depletion intensity is the focus of market game. The "two new" policies may bring phased opportunities for the manufacturing industry. The short - term steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions and will mainly fluctuate sideways [5]. - The core contradiction of iron ore in February is the game between short - term restocking demand and long - term supply - demand relaxation. Pre - holiday restocking by steel mills will support prices, but during the Spring Festival, the port inventory may increase passively. After the holiday, high inventory will suppress prices, but the post - holiday "golden March and silver April" expectation and macro - policies may provide some support [8]. Summary by Directory 1.后市预判 (Outlook) - Steel: In February, market trading before the Spring Festival will weaken. Rebar demand will be affected by the holiday and weather, and the post - holiday resumption is key. Hot - rolled coil demand will also decline, but has some resilience. High post - holiday inventory and supply will pressure prices, and inventory depletion is the focus. The "two new" policies may bring opportunities. Short - term steel fundamentals are stable with sideways fluctuations [5]. - Iron ore: The core is the game between short - term restocking and long - term supply - demand. Pre - holiday restocking supports prices, during the holiday port inventory may rise. After the holiday, high inventory suppresses prices, but post - holiday expectations and policies may support [8]. 2.产业动态 (Industry Dynamics) - Steel winter storage expectations are low, and electric arc furnace steel mills will stop production during the Spring Festival. Only 40% of northwest construction steel traders plan to winter - store, with an expected selling price of 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton. Shandong steel traders' winter - storage volume is expected to be 24.35 tons, a 38.35% year - on - year decrease, with a psychological price of 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton. In the northeast, hot - rolled coil forms an independent market due to logistics. Only 10.6% of merchants plan to winter - store, 14.5% are on the sidelines, and 74.9% have no plan. Anhui steel traders' winter - storage enthusiasm has declined significantly, with "passive winter - storage" and "low - volume trial" as the main modes. Four out of ten sample steel mills in Henan will stop production or conduct maintenance during the holiday, and the rest will maintain normal production and have winter - storage plans. About 20% of short - flow steel enterprises in Guangdong will stop production in mid - to late January, and over 60% will stop in early February, with most resuming production in early March. In Guangxi, 1 steel mill plans to stop production at the end of January, and 4 plan to stop in mid - to early February, resuming production after the Lantern Festival [11][12]. 3.数据分析 (Data Analysis) - **Steel Supply**: Since January, rebar production has changed little from last year and remained low, while hot - rolled coil production has declined. As of January 30, the weekly actual rebar production was 199.83 tons, an increase of 22.16 tons from last year, and hot - rolled coil was 309 tons, a decrease of 14.22 tons. In February, production is expected to remain low, especially for independent electric arc furnace steel mills, whose production suspension scope will expand, and blast furnace large - scale resumption is unlikely [14]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, rebar inventory in steel mills was 149.13 tons, a decrease of 53.72 tons from last year, and social inventory in 35 cities was 326.4 tons, a decrease of 123.88 tons. Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 77.25 tons, a decrease of 17.55 tons, and social inventory in 33 cities was 278.33 tons, a decrease of 15.49 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory depletion is better than rebar. Rebar demand is weak due to construction site shutdowns, while hot - rolled coil demand in manufacturing has more resilience [15]. - **Exports**: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a record high, with 119 million tons exported, a 7.5% year - on - year increase, and an average export price of 694 US dollars/ton, an 8.1% decrease. "Steel + billet" equivalent crude steel exports were 138 million tons, a 14.3% increase. Hot - rolled coil exports declined due to overseas anti - dumping duties, while rebar exports increased due to high demand in "Belt and Road" countries. The 2026 steel export license policy may affect short - term exports but optimize the long - term structure [18]. - **Consumption**: Rebar consumption decreased seasonally before the Spring Festival. As of January 30, the apparent consumption was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 24.04 tons from the beginning of the month. Cement weekly shipments also declined. As of January 27, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.68%, with non - housing projects at 60.64% and housing projects at 54.99%. Hot - rolled coil consumption showed "seasonal pressure but resilience". As of January 30, the weekly consumption was 311.41 tons. In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%. In January, there was some year - end rush demand in manufacturing, but demand is expected to decline in February, and attention should be paid to post - holiday resumption and "two new" policy funds [20][21]. - **Iron Ore Import**: As of the week of January 23, the global iron ore shipment was 2978.3 tons, and the arrival at 45 Chinese ports was 2530 tons. In January, shipments were significantly higher than last year, and arrivals also increased. In 2025, China's iron ore imports reached a new high, with a cumulative import of 1260.22 million tons, a 1.78% increase. In December, the import was 119.647 million tons, a 6.36% increase [27]. - **Supply Structure**: In January, the shipment of non - mainstream iron ore remained stable. On January 17, 2026, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at Ma'jishan Port in Zhejiang. The second shipment was on the way. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea can supply 120 million tons of high - quality iron ore annually after reaching full production, which helps diversify import sources [29]. - **Inventory and Shipment**: Recently, the port iron ore shipment has increased, and steel mill inventory has also risen. Due to concentrated arrivals, port inventory increased instead of decreasing. As of January 30, the inventory at 45 ports was 1702.226 million tons, an increase of 10.5137 million tons from the beginning of the month, and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 996.8 million tons, an increase of 10.2205 million tons. The daily port shipment was 332.31 tons, an increase of 7.1 tons from the beginning of the month [32]. - **Trading Volume**: As of the week of January 23, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports was 97.5 tons, and the forward spot was 103.3 tons. Spot trading was stable due to sufficient supply and limited demand. Forward trading was relatively active as steel mills aimed to avoid post - holiday risks and take advantage of price differences [33]. - **Iron Ore Consumption**: As of January 30, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 227.98 tons, and the daily average iron ore consumption was 280.96 tons. Pig iron output has fluctuated around 228 tons for weeks. Due to weak demand and safety inspections, iron ore consumption decreased steadily, and without significant profit improvement and demand recovery, iron ore prices will be suppressed [35]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 29, the price difference between rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 151 yuan/ton, and it has fluctuated within a range since January. The basis between steel and iron ore futures and spot prices was stable, with similar trends and amplitudes. Weak winter demand in the spot market and lack of significant improvement in market expectations in the futures market make it difficult for the basis to expand [37][40].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、上周（1 月 19 日-1 月 25 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积总 | | | | 计 | 117.04 万平方米，环比下降 3%，同比下降 33.8%。 | | | | | 2、2025 年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 73982.0 亿元，比上年增长 0.6%。 | | | | | 3、2025 年，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 1098.3 亿元，同比增长 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 299.2%。 | | | | | 4、2025 年冰洗市场整体规模达 2489.6 亿元，处于近十年高位水平。其中，2025 | | | | | 年冰箱产业零售额达 1271 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and also closed up during the night session. The supply of five major steel products this week was 819,590 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.38 thousand tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1,257,080 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%. The weekly consumption of five major products was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week. Near the end of the year, steel mills' winter storage policies are being released one after another, but downstream winter storage willingness is average, with most holding a cautious attitude and the winter storage volume decreasing compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price level. Short-term long positions can be attempted, but it is expected that the upside space is limited, and stop-loss should be set. The support level of the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the pressure level is 3,200 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and also closed up during the night session [1] 3.2 Important Information - In December 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.791 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; from January to December, the production was 16.524 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [1] - In December 2025, China's raw coal production was 437.035 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%; the cumulative production from January to December was 4.831782 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. From the provincial data, from January to December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of raw coal production in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were 2.1%, -1.0% and 2.9% respectively [1] - On January 22, 2026, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in December 2025, China's excavator production was 37,305 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. In the whole year of 2025, China's excavator production was 379,643 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [1] - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, taking promoting stable economic growth and reasonable recovery of prices as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 819,590 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.38 thousand tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,257,080 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%; the weekly consumption of five major products was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 819,590 tons, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The variety structure of steel production has differentiated this period, mainly with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. The total inventory of five major steel products this week was 1,257,080 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%. The total inventory of five major products has rebounded this week, and the inventory changes of building materials and plates have differentiated, with building materials showing inventory accumulation and plates showing inventory reduction. Building materials accumulated 14,870 tons of inventory, and plates reduced inventory by 4,800 tons. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of five major products this week was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week. The consumption structure of building materials and plates among the five major products remained the same this week. Near the end of the year, steel mills' winter storage policies are being released one after another. The downstream winter storage willingness is average, with most holding a cautious attitude and the winter storage volume decreasing compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price level [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions can be attempted, but it is expected that the upside space is limited, and stop-loss should be set. The support level of the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the pressure level is 3,200 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Expected to Fluctuate Widely" [2] - Date of Report: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to show a volatile trend. Short - term long positions are recommended, but the upside space is expected to be limited. Long - term holding is not advised, and stop - losses should be set. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3050, and the resistance level is 3200. The support level for the iron ore main contract is 770, and the resistance level is 830 [4]. Group 4: Steel Market Analysis Supply - This week, the total supply of the five major steel products was 819.59 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The output structure of steel products has differentiated, with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. Rebar production increased by 9.25 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of some production lines in central China. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly by 2.55 tons due to a steel mill's maintenance in North China and slow output recovery in East China [11][20]. Demand - From the perspective of winter storage demand, downstream winter storage willingness is average, mostly with a cautious attitude, and the winter storage volume may decrease compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price. In terms of rigid demand, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has limited room for further improvement. As the pre - holiday demand seasonally weakens, the inventory pressure on steel products may further accumulate. Currently, there is no obvious driver for the finished product prices, and they fluctuate following the raw material prices [4]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1257.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.07 tons, an increase of 0.8%. Building materials showed inventory accumulation of 14.87 tons, while plates showed inventory reduction of 4.8 tons. Rebar inventory in steel mills increased by 6.32 tons, with significant increases in central and northern China. In terms of social inventory, rebar inventory increased in East, South, and North China, with the most obvious increase in North China. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased in the north and increased in the other two major regions, with the most obvious inventory reduction in central China [11][20]. Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Supply - This week, iron ore prices first fell and then rebounded, with the main contract falling below 800. The global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume also declined. Domestic mine output increased, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports continued to accumulate. From January 12th to 18th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2897.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2659.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1442.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 tons. The total global iron ore shipments were 2929.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 16555.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 279.84 tons [4][24]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output this week was 228.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Group 6: Winter Storage Analysis Time and Cycle - Winter storage usually starts from late November to mid - December (about 8 weeks before the Spring Festival) and ends in early March of the following year (about 4 weeks after the Spring Festival), with a cycle of about 12 weeks [14]. Policy Price and Basis - The current winter storage policy price is 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 30~+30 yuan/ton. According to Mysteel's research, the winter storage willingness of traders is only 42%. Steel mills have few policies, mainly post - settlement/price - setting [17].

| | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月新能源汽车产量 179.1 万辆，同比增长 8.7%； | | | | | 1-12 月产量 1652.4 万辆，同比增长 25.1%。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月，中国原煤产量为 43703.5 万吨，同比下降 | | | | | 1.0%；1-12 月累计产量 483178.2 万吨，同比增长 1.2%。 | | | | | 从分省数据来看，2025 年 1-12 月山西、内蒙古和陕西原煤产量累计同比分别增长 | | | | | 2.1%、-1.0%和 2.9%。 | | | | | 3、2026 年 1 月 22 日，国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 12 月，我国挖掘机产量 | | | | | 37305 台，同比增长 20.8%。2025 年全年，我国挖掘机产量 379643 台，同比增长 ...

Morning session notice | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部：支持地方因地制宜建设未来产业，加大政府投资基金投资力度。 | | | | | 2、住建部部长：支持房企合理的融资需求，支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求。 | | | | | 3、我国充电基础设施数量突破 2000 万大关。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 4、1 月 22 日，河北省邢台市、保定市、沧州市、衡水市、邯郸市、山东省德州市 | | | | | 启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 临近年底，钢厂冬储政策陆续发布。下游冬储意愿一般，多持谨慎心态，冬储量较 | | | | | 去年可能下降。当前市场冬储心理价位集中在 3000-3100 元/吨，此价格相对接近 | | | | | 当前现货价格水平。基本面，当前钢材产量、库存均下降，其中螺纹产量和库存微 | | | | | 降，热卷产量增加， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, but closed up during the night session. The supply of steel increased while demand decreased, and inventory increased. The market may experience different stages: first, with the market entering winter storage, there could be an increase in demand and a potential rebound in the market, with the rebound space depending on the intensity of winter storage; second, as winter storage nears its end and the Spring Festival approaches, the market will enter a "nominal trading" phase, with both supply and demand contracting and the market becoming a pure capital-driven one [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, and closed up during the night session [1] Important Information - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large-scale and high-level construction and investment in water conservancy infrastructure in 2026 [1] - According to Mysteel's research, the off-season effect is prominent, and the steel procurement volume of construction enterprises in January is expected to decline by about 18% [1] - Mysteel's research data on construction enterprises shows that the actual steel procurement volume in December 2025 was 6.67 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.6%; the planned steel procurement volume in January is 5.78 million tons, and the actual procurement volume in January may decline significantly month-on-month [1] Market Logic - The supply of the five major steel products in this period is 8.1859 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 73,800 tons. Among them, the output and inventory of rebar both increased, the output of hot-rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased. Overall, steel supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory increased [1] Trading Strategy - Possible trading logic deductions: 1. As sentiment cools, the market gradually enters winter storage, and there is an increase in demand on the demand side. The market front-runs the winter storage logic and rebounds, and the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage. 2. As winter storage nears its end and the Spring Festival approaches, the market will enter a substantial "nominal trading" phase. Some traders will gradually close for the holiday, and some electric furnace enterprises with poor profit performance may take an early holiday, resulting in a contraction of both supply and demand. The market will enter a pure capital-driven phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing significant price increases due to supply concerns stemming from government announcements regarding coal production capacity adjustments in Shaanxi province, despite the actual impact being limited [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Multiple futures contracts for coking coal and coke hit the limit up, with the A-share coal sector seeing substantial gains, including major companies like Daya Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [1]. - The main coking coal futures contract rose by 6.95%, while the main coke futures contract increased by 3.52% by the end of the night trading session [1]. Group 2: Production Capacity Adjustments - The Shaanxi provincial government announced that 26 out of 52 coal mines would be removed from the supply guarantee list, resulting in a reduction of 19 million tons of production capacity [1]. - The 19 million tons of capacity reduction represents only 3% of the projected coal output for 2025 in Yulin city and 0.4% of the national coal output for 2024 [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the market is currently sensitive to positive news, leading to a bullish sentiment despite underlying negative fundamentals [2]. - The expectation of improved macroeconomic conditions and potential policy support in January has contributed to a positive market outlook for coking coal prices [2]. - The first quarter is typically a supply off-season, with a projected decrease in iron ore shipments, leading to a temporary supply-demand mismatch [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Steel mills have been operating at a loss since October 2025, with raw material inventories showing seasonal trends, indicating potential for further inventory replenishment [4]. - Current usable days of inventory for iron ore and coking coal are 31.88 days and 12.75 days, respectively, suggesting that there is still room for downstream replenishment [4]. Group 5: Price Trends and Market Stability - The current balance of supply and demand for coking coal suggests that while prices may experience short-term fluctuations, the sustainability of the recent price increases remains uncertain [6]. - The "anti-involution" policies and production regulations are expected to limit coal production growth, indicating a price environment with a floor and ceiling [6].