Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined, market sentiment returned to rationality. Although inventory was depleted and steel mill production reached a new low, market demand was weak, the fundamentals had a slight correction, and raw material support remained relatively strong, so the bottom of steel prices was still high. As of December 12, the average price of 20mm grade III earthquake-resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,289 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high-speed wire rod was 3,476 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [1]. - As the end of the year approaches, steel mill overhauls increase, hot metal production continues to decline, and rebar production has decreased significantly. Rebar supply and demand are both weak, inventory continues to be depleted, and the inventory depletion speed remains at a relatively fast level. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Signals released by the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Federal Reserve meeting are all within expectations, and macro disturbances have temporarily come to an end. With limited bright spots in the fundamentals, it is expected that the futures prices will be under pressure and fluctuate [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined, with weak market demand and a slight correction in fundamentals, but strong raw material support and a relatively high bottom for steel prices. As of December 12, the average price of 20mm grade III earthquake-resistant rebar in major cities across the country decreased by 37 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high-speed wire rod decreased by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week [1]. - As the end of the year approaches, steel mill overhauls increase, hot metal production and rebar production decline. Rebar supply and demand are both weak, inventory continues to be depleted rapidly, and fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Macro disturbances have temporarily ended, and it is expected that the futures prices will be under pressure and fluctuate [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The average daily hot metal production of steel mills was 2.292 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 31,000 tons (-1.33%). Rebar mill inventory was 1.408 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18,800 tons (-1.32%). Rebar social inventory was 3.387 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 224,300 tons (-6.21%). Hot-rolled coil mill inventory was 840,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 41,100 tons (5.14%). Hot-rolled coil social inventory was 3.1306 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 73,700 tons (-2.30%) [2]. Futures Market Review - Figures related to the 5-day intraday chart of rebar and hot-rolled coil main contracts, rebar 01 - 05 spread, hot-rolled coil 01 - 05 spread, on-screen coil-to-rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) are presented, with data from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [3][4][6]. Spot Market Review - Figures related to the East China price of rebar (Shanghai), the spot price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot-rolled coil basis are presented, with data from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [10][11]. Fundamental Data - Figures related to the average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills (in million tons), rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply and demand trend chart (in million tons), hot-rolled coil supply and demand trend chart (in million tons), rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis (in million tons), and rebar social inventory seasonal analysis (in million tons) are presented, with data from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [13][18][21].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing price adjustments, with several steel mills reducing rebar prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential impacts on supply and demand [1]. Price Adjustments - Approximately five steel mills have adjusted their rebar ex-factory prices today, with reductions of 30 CNY/ton in Northeast China and 20 CNY/ton in both North and South China [1]. - Specific prices for high-strength rebar (HPB300) are reported, with prices ranging from 3340 CNY/ton to 3540 CNY/ton across various regions [3]. Market Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of construction steel this week is 4.8725 million tons, a decrease of 83,900 tons (-1.69%) compared to the previous week, covering 30 cities and 79 warehouses [4]. - On October 31, the national construction material transaction volume was 89,900 tons, a slight decrease of 0.33% from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - According to Donghai Futures research, the market is shifting focus from macro events to fundamental factors, with real demand showing marginal improvement and a significant increase in apparent consumption of major steel products by 236,900 tons [5]. - Despite a slight decrease in iron output, finished steel production has seen a small increase, while steel mill profits are under pressure, and environmental production limits in Hebei are expected to further reduce steel supply [5]. - The short-term outlook for the steel market is anticipated to return to fundamentals, with expectations of range-bound fluctuations [5].