期货市场上看，10月10日收盘，线材期货主力合约报3420.00元/吨，涨幅3.01%，最高触及3435.00元/ 吨，最低下探3344.00元/吨，日内成交量达446手。 9月，线材现货价格小幅下行、趋弱运行。截止29日，江浙沪地区HPB300高线均价3357.5元/吨，较月初 下跌0.59%。10月线材价格又将会如何发展？ 2025年10月11日线材现货价 格表 | 商品名 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 线材 | 中天 φ8-φ10 HPB300 杭州 | 中天 | 3400元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/杭州 | 上海巨福国际贸易有限 | | | | | 吨 | | 市 | 公司 | | 线材 | 永钢 直径:Φ8;高线 HPB300 | 永钢 | 3400元/ | 市场价 | 上海/上海市 | 上海巨福国际贸易有限 | | | | | 吨 | | | 公司 | | 线材 | 中天 φ8-φ10 HPB300 杭州 | 中天 | ...

中国统计信息服务中心 卓创资讯 据对全国流通领域9大类50种重要生产资料市场价格的监测显示，2025年9月下旬与9月中旬相比，15种 产品价格上涨，31种下降，4种持平。 | 2025年9月下旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格变动情况 | | --- | | 产品名称 | | 本期价格 | 比上期 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 单位 | （元） | 价格涨跌 | (%) | | | | | （元） | | | 一、黑色金属 | | | | | | 螺纹钢（Φ20mm，HRB400E） | 吨 | 3184.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 线材（Φ8—10mm，HPB300） | 吨 | 3331.3 | 13.7 | 0.4 | | 普通中板（20mm，Q235） | 吨 | 3507.7 | -5.2 | -0.1 | | 热轧普通板卷（4.75—11.5mm，Q235） | 吨 | 3412.4 | -16.4 | -0.5 | | 无缝钢管（219*6，20#） | 吨 | 4141.1 | -2.7 | -0.1 | | 角钢（5#） | 吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry by implementing precise capacity and production controls, promoting resource allocation to leading enterprises, and achieving dynamic balance in supply and demand [3][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will remain on capacity regulation, which is expected to restore profitability for steel companies, particularly benefiting leading firms from the new regulatory measures [3][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][9]. - The report details price changes for various steel products, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, indicating a general downward trend in prices [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 94,700 tons week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 121,200 tons to 10.88 million tons [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.2044 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 104,100 tons [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes a decline in profitability for plate products, with the gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changing by +3 CNY/ton, -36 CNY/ton, and -20 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Electric arc furnace steel showed a gross margin increase of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel for potential investment opportunities [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the price fluctuations of the black and infrastructure upstream industries, and presents the latest situation of the production and service industries through mid - level event overviews, as well as the operating conditions of the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The third fifth meeting of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held on September 24 in Xiongan New Area, with the low copper concentrate processing fees due to "involution - style" competition being the most prominent issue. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on September 25, emphasizing stable supply of "vegetable basket" products, winter - spring vegetable production, and regulation of pig production capacity [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Education and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Procurement and Acceptance Management of Bulk Food Ingredients in School Canteens" to improve campus food safety [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The prices of glass (black) and cement (infrastructure) have rebounded [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The polyester industry's operating rate is at a three - year median, power plant coal consumption is at a median level, and the asphalt operating rate is rising [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly declined, and the number of domestic flights is at a median level [3]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 9/25 | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.06% | | | Spot price: Egg | 9/25 | 7.8 yuan/kg | - 3.13% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9/25 | 9188.0 yuan/ton | - 1.90% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 9/25 | 15106.7 yuan/ton | - 1.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 9/25 | 19.4 yuan/kg | - 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 9/25 | 82435.0 yuan/ton | 2.99% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 9/25 | 21864.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 20783.3 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 9/25 | 124400.0 yuan/ton | 1.18% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 17031.3 yuan/ton | - 0.33% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 9/25 | 3204.5 yuan/ton | 2.02% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 9/25 | 807.9 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 9/25 | 3385.0 yuan/ton | 1.27% | | | Spot price: Glass | 9/25 | 15.1 yuan/square meter | 5.60% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 9/25 | 14958.3 yuan/ton | 0.73% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 9/25 | 790.2 | - 0.39% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 9/25 | 65.0 dollars/barrel | 2.03% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 9/25 | 68.5 dollars/barrel | 1.48% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 9/25 | 3808.0 yuan/ton | - 1.19% | | | Coal price: Coal | 9/25 | 790.0 yuan/ton | 1.15% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | 9/25 | 4635.0 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | 9/25 | 7346.7 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Urea | 9/25 | 1647.5 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 9/25 | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | 9/25 | 134.8 | 2.53% | | | Building materials composite index | 9/25 | 114.4 points | 0.33% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 9/25 | 91.7 points | - 0.09% | [36]

Core Insights - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 25 products experiencing price increases, 23 seeing declines, and 2 remaining stable in mid-September 2025 compared to early September 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Key Categories - In the black metal category, notable price increases include rebar at 3,184.1 CNY per ton (up 0.3%), wire rod at 3,317.6 CNY per ton (up 0.4%), and hot-rolled ordinary plate at 3,428.8 CNY per ton (up 0.6%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper rose to 80,550.7 CNY per ton (up 0.7%), while aluminum ingots increased to 20,894.3 CNY per ton (up 1.0%) [4]. - Chemical products showed mixed results, with sulfuric acid dropping to 685.0 CNY per ton (down 4.4%) and methanol rising to 2,258.5 CNY per ton (up 1.6%) [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased to 3,863.8 CNY per ton (down 1.6%), while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) slightly increased to 4,507.7 CNY per ton (up 0.1%) [4]. - Coal prices showed a slight increase, with anthracite coal at 869.1 CNY per ton (up 2.4%) and ordinary mixed coal at 529.3 CNY per ton (up 0.5%) [4]. Group 3: Agricultural and Forestry Products - In agricultural products, yellow corn rose to 2,304.0 CNY per ton (up 0.2%), while cotton prices fell to 14,654.3 CNY per ton (down 0.4%) [5]. - The price of natural rubber decreased to 14,872.6 CNY per ton (down 0.9%), while the price of corrugated paper increased to 2,780.7 CNY per ton (up 1.2%) [5].

Industry Overview Production Industry - The 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24th to 26th in Hangzhou with the theme of "Cloud-Intelligence Integration, Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis", featuring three main forums and over 110 aggregated topics focusing on AI, cloud computing, and industrial applications [1] Service Industry - At the press conference, the head of the central bank mentioned that the theme was about the mid - to long - term "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry without short - term policy adjustments; the head of the financial regulatory agency stated that the total assets of the banking and insurance industries exceeded 500 trillion yuan with an average growth of over 9% in five years; the head of the CSRC said that the market value of the A - share technology sector accounted for over 1/4, and the number of tech companies in the top 50 market - value companies increased from 18 to 24; the deputy head of the central bank and head of the SAFE mentioned that cross - border two - way investment and financing were active, with overseas institutions and individuals holding over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits by the end of July [2] Upstream - Black: Wire rod prices have rebounded [3] - Energy: Crude oil and natural gas prices have slightly declined [3] Midstream - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable at a medium level [4] - Agriculture: The production of pig products has increased [4] Downstream - Service: The number of domestic flights has increased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 2288.6 | -0.50% | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 7.8 | 1.56% | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 9372.0 | -0.30% | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 15242.2 | -0.09% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 19.6 | -1.61% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 80233.3 | -0.95% | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 21942.0 | -1.22% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 20826.7 | -1.09% | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 122750.0 | -0.81% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 17081.3 | 0.29% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3167.5 | 1.07% | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 807.4 | -0.06% | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3410.0 | 2.87% | | Building materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/22 | 14.3 | 2.14% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 14908.3 | -1.49% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 791.3 | -0.34% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 62.4 | -0.46% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 66.0 | -1.42% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3794.0 | -2.12% | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 784.0 | 1.16% | | Chemicals | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 4626.3 | -0.12% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 7386.7 | 0.11% | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1655.0 | -0.60% | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 133.3 | 1.86% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 114.8 | 1.48% | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 91.7 | -0.45% | [39]

Core Viewpoint - Yongxing Materials has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with significant net outflows of capital and a decrease in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 22, Yongxing Materials' stock fell by 2.02%, trading at 33.90 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 18.276 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has decreased by 8.95% year-to-date, with a 4.61% drop over the last five trading days and a 4.83% decline over the last 20 days, while it has increased by 6.77% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yongxing Materials reported revenue of 3.693 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 401 million yuan, down 47.84% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 5.503 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.203 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Yongxing Materials had 53,700 shareholders, a decrease of 3.06% from the previous period, with an average of 7,232 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.17% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 5.4031 million shares, an increase of 2.6028 million shares from the previous period [3].

国泰海通证券认为，钢铁需求有望逐步企稳，供给有望进一步收缩。地产持续下行，导致地产端钢铁需 求占比有所下降，预期地产对钢铁需求的负向拖拽有望逐步减弱；基建有望继续发挥托底作用，制造业 需求有望平稳增长。总体来看，预期国内钢铁需求有望逐步企稳。从供给端来看，部分钢企已出现连续 亏现金流的情况，2024年发生两波主动性减产，供给的脆弱性凸显，预期2025年供给端存在进一步减产 的可能性。钢铁行业有望加快并购重组，行业集中度提升将带来盈利中枢的长期修复。 据央视新闻消息，9月22日，工业和信息化部等部门联合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，明确未来两年钢铁行业增加值年均增长目标设定在4%左右。该方案以"稳增长、防内卷"为核 心，为中国钢铁行业的结构性调整与高质量发展指明实施路径。 东吴证券认为，钢铁行业产能严重过剩，央国企集中度较高利于行政手段实施，"反内卷"政策有望推动 钢价修复，盈利抬升。1）钢铁行业供过于求，螺纹钢、线材产能严重过剩：中国钢铁行业2007—2024 年国内持续处于供过于求状态，净出口量2024年位于近15年最高水平。2015—2021年中国钢铁企业五大 钢材产能利用率在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [3][4]. Core Insights - The steel prices are showing a strong upward trend supported by raw material costs, with significant increases in various steel products as of September 19, 2025 [1][11]. - The overall steel profit margins have improved, with notable increases in the gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel [1][2]. - The report indicates a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction for rebar, suggesting a recovery in demand as the industry enters its peak season [3]. Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for key steel products in Shanghai are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400) at 3280 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton from the previous week - High-line (8.0mm) at 3420 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm) at 3460 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm) at 3830 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm) at 3510 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton [1][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of September 19, 2025, the total production of the five major steel products was 8.55 million tons, a decrease of 1.78 million tons week-on-week, with rebar production specifically down by 5.48 million tons to 2.0645 million tons [2]. - The total social inventory of the five major steel products increased by 63,200 tons to 11.0023 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 11,400 tons [2]. Profitability - The report highlights an increase in steel profitability, with gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel rising by 24 CNY/ton, 28 CNY/ton, and 28 CNY/ton respectively, while electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 10 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - For the general steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel - For the special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]