11月25日，国内期市黑色金属板块"万红丛中一点绿"，铁矿石主力涨幅超1%。截止目前，铁矿石主力 上涨1.14%，报799.00元/吨；螺纹钢主力上涨0.78%，报3108.00元/吨；热卷主力上涨0.76%，报3313.00 元/吨；不锈钢主力上涨0.49%，报12385.00元/吨；硅铁主力下跌0.15%，报5472.00元/吨。 11月25日黑色金属期货价格行情 截止北京时间11月24日，据商品期货基差数据显示：螺纹钢、热卷、不锈钢、铁矿石品种合约出现'期 现倒挂'(现货价格高于期货价格)现象。 | 商品名称 | 现货价格 | 合约 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 基差率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 3174 | 2601 | 3084 | 90 | 2.84% | | 线材 | 3325 | 2601 | 3328 | -3 | -0.09% | | 热轧卷板 | 3326.67 | 2601 | 3288 | 38 | 1.14% | | 不锈钢 | 12473.3 | 2601 | 12325 | 148 | 1.19% | | 硅铁 ...

Core Insights - The national statistics indicate mixed trends in steel prices in the circulating market from early to mid-November 2025, with some products experiencing price increases while others saw declines [1] Price Changes Summary - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) price is 3139.0 CNY/ton, up by 20.5 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.7%, compared to a previous decline of 0.1% [1] - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) price is 3282.6 CNY/ton, increased by 10.9 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.3%, following a previous decline of 0.3% [1] - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) price is 3393.7 CNY/ton, down by 18.1 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.5%, which is an increase in the decline rate by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous period [1] - Hot-rolled ordinary coil (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) price is 3289.0 CNY/ton, decreased by 7.7 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.2%, which is a narrowing of the decline rate by 0.5 percentage points [1] - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) price is 4068.8 CNY/ton, down by 10.4 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.3%, which is a narrowing of the decline rate by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Angle steel (5) price is 3423.3 CNY/ton, increased by 3.4 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.1%, which is a narrowing of the increase rate by 0.1 percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.7% decrease in the price of live pigs (external three yuan) in mid-November compared to early November 2025, indicating a trend in the livestock market [1]. Price Changes Summary 1. General Price Trends - In mid-November 2025, 30 products saw price increases, while 17 experienced declines, and 3 remained stable compared to early November [1]. 2. Key Product Price Changes - **Black Metals**: - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) rose by 20.5 CNY to 3139.0 CNY, a 0.7% increase [2]. - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) fell by 18.1 CNY to 3393.7 CNY, a 0.5% decrease [2]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Electrolytic copper (1) increased by 427.1 CNY to 86636.3 CNY, a 0.5% rise [2]. - Zinc ingot (0) decreased by 32.9 CNY to 22483.8 CNY, a 0.1% drop [2]. - **Chemical Products**: - Sulfuric acid (98%) surged by 81.6 CNY to 866.9 CNY, a 10.4% increase [2]. - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) dropped by 12.1 CNY to 846.0 CNY, a 1.4% decrease [2]. - **Energy Products**: - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell by 55.8 CNY to 4268.1 CNY, a 1.3% decrease [2]. - Gasoline (95 National VI) rose by 50.3 CNY to 8050.6 CNY, a 0.6% increase [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Live pigs (external three yuan) decreased by 0.2 CNY to 11.6 CNY/kg, a 1.7% decline [3]. - Corn (yellow corn, second grade) increased by 22.2 CNY to 2168.1 CNY, a 1.0% rise [3]. 3. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) increased by 28.1 CNY to 1647.9 CNY, a 1.7% rise [3]. - Compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content 45%) rose by 67.3 CNY to 3216.0 CNY, a 2.1% increase [3]. 4. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) surged by 323.6 CNY to 14800.0 CNY, a 22% increase [3]. - Pulp (imported needle pulp) rose by 52.4 CNY to 5572.4 CNY, remaining stable [3].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 30 products experiencing price increases, 17 seeing declines, and 3 remaining stable in mid-November 2025 compared to early November 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 20.5 yuan per ton (0.7%), while ordinary medium plates decreased by 18.1 yuan per ton (-0.5%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper rose by 427.1 yuan per ton (0.5%), while zinc ingots fell by 32.9 yuan per ton (-0.1%) [4]. - Chemical products saw significant price fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 81.6 yuan per ton (10.4%) and methanol decreasing by 35.9 yuan per ton (-1.7%) [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices dropped by 55.8 yuan per ton (-1.3%), while gasoline prices increased by 50.3 yuan per ton (0.6%) [4]. - Coal prices showed an upward trend, with ordinary mixed coal increasing by 30.5 yuan per ton (5.0%) and Shanxi premium mixed coal rising by 33.6 yuan per ton (4.2%) [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, corn prices rose by 22.2 yuan per ton (1.0%), while cotton prices fell by 37.0 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [5]. - In agricultural production materials, urea prices increased by 28.1 yuan per ton (1.7%), and compound fertilizer prices rose by 67.3 yuan per ton (2.1%) [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving over 2000 wholesalers and dealers, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the market [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications to ensure accurate data [9].

11月21日，钢材现货市场小幅下跌，期货市场主要品种主力以跌为主，其中螺纹涨0.07%、热卷收平， 铁矿石跌0.32%，焦煤跌1.82%，焦炭跌1.31%。双焦跌势延续，再创阶段新低，五大钢材品种库存继续 回落，表观需求环比增加，但原料端持续下行，且市场整体情绪偏弱，期钢价格维持窄幅震荡运行。 一、多空因素分析 1.印度对涉华低灰冶金焦炭作出反倾销初裁 2025年11月14日，印度商工部发布公告，对原产于或进口自中国、澳大利亚、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚、 日本和俄罗斯的低灰冶金焦炭（Low Ash Metallurgical Coke）作出反倾销肯定性初裁，并建议对这些国 家的该涉案产品征收临时反倾销税，利空钢材价格走势。 2.山东德州、淮北市启动重污染天气橙色预警 山东德州11月22日零时启动重污染天气Ⅲ级应急响应，性污染减排措施，强制性减排措施等。同时，淮 北市决定自11月21日0时启动Ⅱ级橙色预警，解除时间另行通知，实施工业源减排 20% 以上、停工限 产、禁行部分柴油货车等强制性措施。目前看，行业减排及施工管控会收缩钢铁产业链供给，短期强化 供需偏紧预期，利好钢材价格走势。 3.美联储12月降息的概率为3 ...

Core Views - The steel industry is expected to face oversupply issues in 2026, with prices likely to remain volatile [4][49] - The trend of "anti-involution" continues, with supply-side reforms expected to constrain crude steel production by 5%-10% [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains robust, with iron water production at a high level; as of November 2025, the average daily iron water output was 2.38 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [3][8] - Steel production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a cumulative crude steel output of 820 million tons, down 4% year-on-year [3][15] - Demand for steel is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by plate steel, while long steel products face challenges; total apparent steel consumption reached 930 million tons, up 5% year-on-year [3][22] Price Trends - Steel prices are anticipated to decline in 2025, with an expected range of 3000-3500 RMB/ton; the price is projected to stabilize in 2026 [3][4] - The decline in coking coal prices is expected to contribute to lower steel prices, with iron ore prices also having room to decrease [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain profitability in 2025 due to declining costs, with average gross margins at their best levels from 2021 to 2025 [3][4] - The anticipated recovery in rebar prices to around 3500 RMB/ton could lead to an increase in profitability by 50-100 RMB/ton [3][4] Investment Strategy - Focus on product structure transformation and high-growth segments; recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4] - Investment lines for 2026 include stable profits from leading steel companies and opportunities in downstream sectors with strong profitability [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Steel's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a current decline of 2.58% and a year-to-date increase of 4.86%, indicating volatility in market performance [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Chongqing Steel reported operating revenue of 19.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.32% [2] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -218 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 83.82% [2] Stock Market Activity - As of November 19, Chongqing Steel's stock price was 1.51 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 13.366 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 1.06 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.83% [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net buy of -72.47 million yuan on July 2 [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Chongqing Steel was 180,800, an increase of 3.27% from the previous period [2] - The average circulating shares per shareholder remained at 0 shares, unchanged from the previous period [2] Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Chongqing Steel has distributed a total of 520 million yuan in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

| 答：公司拥有热轧卷板、中厚板、冷轧板、镀锌板、彩涂板、冷 | | --- | | 轧硅钢、重轨及型材、无缝钢管、线材等比较完整的产品系列。 | | 产品广泛应用于机械、冶金、石油、化工、煤炭、电力、铁路、 | | 船舶、汽车、建筑、家电、航空等行业。 | | 公司的造船用钢在产品船级社认证、高技术船舶用钢首发和 | | 批量稳定供货以及钢级和产品规格的覆盖率上，处于国内领先水 | | 平；汽车用钢方面，可提供热轧、酸洗、EPS、冷轧以及铝硅镀 | | 层热成形产品，强度级别可至 2000MPa，具备铝硅镀层钢板激 | | 光拼焊能力，自主开发铝硅镀层热成形直线门环产品；硅钢产品 | | 方面已具备无取向高中低牌号的全品种的生产能力，可以提供新 | | 能源硅钢，并在主流汽车厂和电机厂批量应用，取向硅钢在主流 | | 变压器厂家长期批量稳定供货，高牌号生产比例逐步提升。 | | 4、公司原材料采购 | | 答：公司铁矿石采购主要来自于鞍钢集团及进口，进口铁矿石原 | | 料采购量低于国内铁矿石原料采购量。公司不断拓展资源渠道， | | 根据实际情况择机采购，动态调整渠道采购比例。公司煤炭采购 | | 以国内 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority of the main contracts decline on November 18, with coking coal dropping over 4% and the shipping index (European line) and coke falling over 3% [1] - Other commodities such as silicon iron, silver, gold, nickel, and polysilicon experienced declines of over 1%, while lead, pulp, plastic, industrial silicon, timber, and copper saw slight decreases [1] Group 2 - In terms of gains, lithium carbonate, wire, peanuts, iron ore, rubber, and red dates experienced slight increases [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuations [3][4]. Core Insights - The Ximangdu Iron Mine has officially commenced production, with a total designed capacity of 120 million tons per year, expected to gradually ramp up over the next 2-3 years. This high-quality iron ore resource is anticipated to lower iron ore prices, alleviating pressure on steel mill profits [3][4]. - Steel prices have decreased, with notable declines in rebar and medium plates, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices remained stable [1][9]. - Steel production has decreased, with a total output of 8.34 million tons for major steel products, down by 223,600 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory also fell by 136,300 tons [2][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,170 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price changes, with hot-rolled at 3,280 CNY/ton and cold-rolled at 3,770 CNY/ton remaining stable [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products was 8.34 million tons, with rebar production specifically reduced to 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory decreased to 10.602 million tons [2][6]. Profitability - Steel margins have declined, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 29 CNY/ton, 37 CNY/ton, and 39 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also saw a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market positioning and expected performance, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in various segments such as special steel and pipe materials [3][4].