1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to maintain a wait - and - see stance [3][70][72] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile trend. The rise was due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the expectation of another round of export rush after tariff cuts, while the decline was caused by the peak of hot metal production at the end of the month and the expected weak demand in the steel off - season. The global iron ore shipment showed a seasonal upward trend, and the mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil also reached high levels. With the maintenance of the port ore clearance volume, the port iron ore inventory continued to decline. At the end of the month, sporadic blast furnaces in Hebei and Shandong reduced their loads and production, combined with the earlier overhaul of large - scale blast furnaces, leading to an enlarged decline in hot metal production, but steel mills' profitability remained at a medium level. Looking ahead, due to the continuous price concessions of coal at the raw material end, steel mills' production can be maintained, so iron ore performed relatively strongly. The price fluctuated little, with less impact from fundamentals and more from macro - news. The high - volume shipments at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines usually take effect in early July, so it is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline. Technically, the long and short forces on the futures market are not obvious. In summary, it is expected that the iron ore futures market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the range of 690 - 730 [4][71] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review: Narrow - Range Fluctuation and Strengthening Basis - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Last Friday, the converted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were as follows: Super Special Fine was 821 yuan/ton (-11), PB Fine was 776 yuan/ton (-20), Newman Fine was 768 yuan/ton (-16), and Carajas Fine was 766 yuan/ton (-18). The domestic Tangshan 66% iron concentrate dry - based tax - included price was 925 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 96.8 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.75 and a monthly average of 99.12 US dollars/ton. The iron ore 09 contract closed at 702.0 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 16 [8] - **Basis and Spread**: On May 30, the futures main - contract steel - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, with a decrease of 0.02. The spreads between different grades of iron ore showed that the medium - and high - grade ores had relatively large declines. The basis of the PB Fine 09 contract was 74 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 4. The 09 - 01 spread was 35.5 yuan/ton last Friday, with no weekly change [21] - **Scrap Steel**: As of May 30, the market price of scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 10. The iron - to - scrap steel price difference in East China was 76 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 74 [23][24] 3.2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Domestic Resumption of Production and Peak of Hot Metal - **Imports**: In April, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,313.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 131.93, and the cumulative imports were 38,847.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 6,688.78 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315.11; lump ore imports were 1,899.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.02; pellet imports were 281.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 81.34; and iron concentrate imports were 1,443.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 288.67 [31][37] - **Domestic Supply**: On May 30, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises (363 mines) was 61.01%, a decrease of 4.14% from the previous period. As of May 30, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.23 from the previous period, and the iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 105.92 million tons, an increase of 5.37 from the previous period [43] - **Foreign Supply**: As of May 23, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 million tons, an increase of 23 from the previous period. Australia's shipments were 1,970.8 million tons, an increase of 143, and Brazil's shipments were 758.3 million tons, a decrease of 120. As of May 30, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.56 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.27, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was 19.86 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.12 [51] - **Port Supply**: On May 23, the arrivals at 45 major domestic ports were 2,151.3 million tons, a decrease of 120 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 80, a decrease of 9 from the previous period. The daily average ore clearance volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 326.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 from the previous period [56] - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,866.58 million tons, a weekly decrease of 121.25. The inventory of 247 domestic steel mills' imported iron ore was 8,754.33 million tons last Friday, a weekly decrease of 171.15, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.68 million tons/day, a decrease of 2.19. The total inventory of the two was 22,620.91 million tons, a decrease of 292.4 from the previous period [57] - **Steel Mills' Demand**: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 58.87%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 241.91 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 from the previous period. As of May 30, the furnace - charge ratio of steel mills was 73.19% for sintering ore, 14.63% for pellet ore, and 12.19% for lump ore [66] 3.3. Investment Strategy: Unclear Direction, Wait and See - **Investment Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors should focus on the range of 690 - 730 [70][71]