Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, similar to hot-rolled steel, short-term trend is balanced and operability is poor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, also bullish with limited market operability [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, short-term trend balanced and hard to operate [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing potential negative feedback pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the steel plate expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by high iron water demand and potential policy benefits [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with prices having large volatility [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are also influenced by policies, and their supply and demand are in a dynamic balance [7][8] Summary by Category Steel - Thread table demand and production continue to decline, inventory accumulates, while hot-rolled demand recovers, production increases, and inventory slightly drops [2] - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with real estate investment falling sharply and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down, but steel exports remain high [2] - The steel plate has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with cost support at the bottom [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decline significantly, domestic arrivals decrease slightly, and port inventories stabilize and rebound [3] - Terminal demand rises slightly, and there is a strong expectation of iron water production recovery this week, along with pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level due to policy benefits and market speculation [3] Coke - The second round of coke price cuts is in progress, and the coking production decreases slightly [4] - Coke inventory rises, and traders' purchasing willingness declines [4] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and policy expectations [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal production increases due to the end of the military parade, and spot auction transactions weaken [6] - Coking coal inventory decreases overall, with production-side inventory slightly increasing [6] - Coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with large volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese weakens, and attention is paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [7] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon manganese production continues to increase [7] - Manganese ore prices are expected to rise, and long-term manganese ore inventory is likely to accumulate [7] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron weakens, and attention is also paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [8] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon iron supply recovers significantly [8] - Silicon iron inventory decreases slightly, and the market pays attention to policy continuity [8]

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 13763.02 318.64 9007.19 296.1 2393.3 39.53 240.13 83.2 90.02 63.64 -9.50 上期 13845.2 325.74 9065.47 297.84 2476.6 39.78 240.75 83.36 90.25 64.94 -3.50 周变动 -82.18 -7.10 -58.28 -1.74 -83.30 -0.25 -0.62 -0.16 -0.23 -1.3 -6.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10713.16 1653.9 283.37 1112.59 本期 9061.02 5036.76 5978.31 上期 10691.95 1743.81 307.18 1102.26 上期 9062.33 4996.89 6114.03 周变动 21.21 -89.91 -23.81 10.33 周变动 -1.31 39.87 -135.72 免责声明： 铁矿石库存周度数 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to maintain a wait - and - see stance [3][70][72] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile trend. The rise was due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the expectation of another round of export rush after tariff cuts, while the decline was caused by the peak of hot metal production at the end of the month and the expected weak demand in the steel off - season. The global iron ore shipment showed a seasonal upward trend, and the mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil also reached high levels. With the maintenance of the port ore clearance volume, the port iron ore inventory continued to decline. At the end of the month, sporadic blast furnaces in Hebei and Shandong reduced their loads and production, combined with the earlier overhaul of large - scale blast furnaces, leading to an enlarged decline in hot metal production, but steel mills' profitability remained at a medium level. Looking ahead, due to the continuous price concessions of coal at the raw material end, steel mills' production can be maintained, so iron ore performed relatively strongly. The price fluctuated little, with less impact from fundamentals and more from macro - news. The high - volume shipments at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines usually take effect in early July, so it is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline. Technically, the long and short forces on the futures market are not obvious. In summary, it is expected that the iron ore futures market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the range of 690 - 730 [4][71] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review: Narrow - Range Fluctuation and Strengthening Basis - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Last Friday, the converted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were as follows: Super Special Fine was 821 yuan/ton (-11), PB Fine was 776 yuan/ton (-20), Newman Fine was 768 yuan/ton (-16), and Carajas Fine was 766 yuan/ton (-18). The domestic Tangshan 66% iron concentrate dry - based tax - included price was 925 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 96.8 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.75 and a monthly average of 99.12 US dollars/ton. The iron ore 09 contract closed at 702.0 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 16 [8] - **Basis and Spread**: On May 30, the futures main - contract steel - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, with a decrease of 0.02. The spreads between different grades of iron ore showed that the medium - and high - grade ores had relatively large declines. The basis of the PB Fine 09 contract was 74 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 4. The 09 - 01 spread was 35.5 yuan/ton last Friday, with no weekly change [21] - **Scrap Steel**: As of May 30, the market price of scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 10. The iron - to - scrap steel price difference in East China was 76 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 74 [23][24] 3.2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Domestic Resumption of Production and Peak of Hot Metal - **Imports**: In April, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,313.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 131.93, and the cumulative imports were 38,847.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 6,688.78 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315.11; lump ore imports were 1,899.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.02; pellet imports were 281.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 81.34; and iron concentrate imports were 1,443.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 288.67 [31][37] - **Domestic Supply**: On May 30, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises (363 mines) was 61.01%, a decrease of 4.14% from the previous period. As of May 30, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.23 from the previous period, and the iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 105.92 million tons, an increase of 5.37 from the previous period [43] - **Foreign Supply**: As of May 23, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 million tons, an increase of 23 from the previous period. Australia's shipments were 1,970.8 million tons, an increase of 143, and Brazil's shipments were 758.3 million tons, a decrease of 120. As of May 30, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.56 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.27, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was 19.86 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.12 [51] - **Port Supply**: On May 23, the arrivals at 45 major domestic ports were 2,151.3 million tons, a decrease of 120 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 80, a decrease of 9 from the previous period. The daily average ore clearance volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 326.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 from the previous period [56] - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,866.58 million tons, a weekly decrease of 121.25. The inventory of 247 domestic steel mills' imported iron ore was 8,754.33 million tons last Friday, a weekly decrease of 171.15, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.68 million tons/day, a decrease of 2.19. The total inventory of the two was 22,620.91 million tons, a decrease of 292.4 from the previous period [57] - **Steel Mills' Demand**: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 58.87%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 241.91 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 from the previous period. As of May 30, the furnace - charge ratio of steel mills was 73.19% for sintering ore, 14.63% for pellet ore, and 12.19% for lump ore [66] 3.3. Investment Strategy: Unclear Direction, Wait and See - **Investment Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors should focus on the range of 690 - 730 [70][71]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a rise of 4.24 points to 1345.17 as of May 9, while the China Export Container Freight Index decreased by 1.3% to 1106.38 [1] - Mysteel's survey indicated that the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills reached 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.022 million tons [1] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments announced adjustments to management measures for customs special supervision zones, effective June 10, 2025 [2] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 10 totaled 293,991 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last month [2] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association urged major nitrogen fertilizer companies to reduce urea factory prices within three days to not exceed levels prior to May 6 [2]