Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term domestic coal mine production shows a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly increased; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated weakly. In the spot market, steel mills in some regions accepted the fourth round of coke price increases [3] Production and Supply - This week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi has recovered, and there is still an expectation of short - term coal mine production increase. The daily output of clean coal is 75.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3 tons. Last week (11.3 - 11.8), the average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 19.52 tons, an increase of 3.09 tons compared with the previous week, and the port supervision area shows an inventory increase trend [3] Demand - The profit of steel mills continues to shrink, and the profitability rate drops below 40%. This week, the daily average pig iron output has rebounded to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. The phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area has been lifted recently, which promotes the rebound of pig iron output [3] Price - The coking coal price is still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The macro - driving force has weakened, the sector is oscillating weakly; in the short term, the supply - demand of coal and coke has marginal fluctuations, generally remaining at a relatively high level, with no significant inventory pressure, and the price is oscillating in the range of 1080 - 1320 [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Situation - Affected by the weak prices of steel and ore, the futures prices of coal and coke followed the downward trend, and the prices fell after reaching the upper limit of the 1080 - 1320 oscillation range. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases has been gradually implemented, with a cumulative increase of 150 - 165 yuan/ton [2]. - The DCE issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard. The overall content has little change, mainly adjusting the premium and discount range of the reaction strength and sulfur content after coking coal is made into coke, and the new standard further aligns the mainstream delivery mines with Shanxi coal, having no impact on the current existing contracts [2]. Fundamental Data - Last week, the daily average output of coking coal from domestic coal mines was 75.8 tons, a slight decrease of 0.3 tons compared with the previous week [3]. - At the import end, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to 16.43 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. - The steel mill profit continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. Historically, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 236.36 tons, a decrease of 3.55 tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei [3]. Later Concerns - With the approaching end of the peak demand season, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. - Later, attention should be paid to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3].

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, similar to hot-rolled steel, short-term trend is balanced and operability is poor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, also bullish with limited market operability [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, short-term trend balanced and hard to operate [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing potential negative feedback pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the steel plate expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by high iron water demand and potential policy benefits [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with prices having large volatility [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are also influenced by policies, and their supply and demand are in a dynamic balance [7][8] Summary by Category Steel - Thread table demand and production continue to decline, inventory accumulates, while hot-rolled demand recovers, production increases, and inventory slightly drops [2] - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with real estate investment falling sharply and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down, but steel exports remain high [2] - The steel plate has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with cost support at the bottom [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decline significantly, domestic arrivals decrease slightly, and port inventories stabilize and rebound [3] - Terminal demand rises slightly, and there is a strong expectation of iron water production recovery this week, along with pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level due to policy benefits and market speculation [3] Coke - The second round of coke price cuts is in progress, and the coking production decreases slightly [4] - Coke inventory rises, and traders' purchasing willingness declines [4] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and policy expectations [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal production increases due to the end of the military parade, and spot auction transactions weaken [6] - Coking coal inventory decreases overall, with production-side inventory slightly increasing [6] - Coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with large volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese weakens, and attention is paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [7] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon manganese production continues to increase [7] - Manganese ore prices are expected to rise, and long-term manganese ore inventory is likely to accumulate [7] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron weakens, and attention is also paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [8] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon iron supply recovers significantly [8] - Silicon iron inventory decreases slightly, and the market pays attention to policy continuity [8]

Group 1: Core Data Comparison - The current port total inventory is 13763.02, a decrease of 82.18 from the previous period [1] - The current daily average port clearance volume is 318.64, a decrease of 7.10 from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill imported ore inventory is 9007.19, a decrease of 58.28 from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill imported ore daily consumption is 296.1, a decrease of 1.74 from the previous period [1] - The current arrival volume is 2393.3, a decrease of 83.30 from the previous period [1] - The current domestic iron ore concentrate powder output is 39.53, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous period [1] - The current daily average molten iron output is 240.13, a decrease of 0.62 from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill operating rate is 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous period [1] - The current capacity utilization rate is 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill profitability rate is 63.64%, a decrease of 6.00% from the previous period [1] Group 2: Port Inventory Variety Structure - The current coarse powder inventory is 10713.16, an increase of 21.21 from the previous period [1] - The current lump ore inventory is 1653.9, a decrease of 89.91 from the previous period [1] - The current pellet inventory is 283.37, a decrease of 23.81 from the previous period [1] - The current concentrate powder inventory is 1112.59, an increase of 10.33 from the previous period [1] - The current trade ore inventory is 9061.02, a decrease of 1.31 from the previous period [1] - The current Brazilian ore inventory is 5036.76, an increase of 39.87 from the previous period [1] - The current Australian ore inventory is 5978.31, a decrease of 135.72 from the previous period [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to maintain a wait - and - see stance [3][70][72] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile trend. The rise was due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the expectation of another round of export rush after tariff cuts, while the decline was caused by the peak of hot metal production at the end of the month and the expected weak demand in the steel off - season. The global iron ore shipment showed a seasonal upward trend, and the mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil also reached high levels. With the maintenance of the port ore clearance volume, the port iron ore inventory continued to decline. At the end of the month, sporadic blast furnaces in Hebei and Shandong reduced their loads and production, combined with the earlier overhaul of large - scale blast furnaces, leading to an enlarged decline in hot metal production, but steel mills' profitability remained at a medium level. Looking ahead, due to the continuous price concessions of coal at the raw material end, steel mills' production can be maintained, so iron ore performed relatively strongly. The price fluctuated little, with less impact from fundamentals and more from macro - news. The high - volume shipments at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines usually take effect in early July, so it is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline. Technically, the long and short forces on the futures market are not obvious. In summary, it is expected that the iron ore futures market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the range of 690 - 730 [4][71] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review: Narrow - Range Fluctuation and Strengthening Basis - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Last Friday, the converted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were as follows: Super Special Fine was 821 yuan/ton (-11), PB Fine was 776 yuan/ton (-20), Newman Fine was 768 yuan/ton (-16), and Carajas Fine was 766 yuan/ton (-18). The domestic Tangshan 66% iron concentrate dry - based tax - included price was 925 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 96.8 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.75 and a monthly average of 99.12 US dollars/ton. The iron ore 09 contract closed at 702.0 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 16 [8] - **Basis and Spread**: On May 30, the futures main - contract steel - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, with a decrease of 0.02. The spreads between different grades of iron ore showed that the medium - and high - grade ores had relatively large declines. The basis of the PB Fine 09 contract was 74 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 4. The 09 - 01 spread was 35.5 yuan/ton last Friday, with no weekly change [21] - **Scrap Steel**: As of May 30, the market price of scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 10. The iron - to - scrap steel price difference in East China was 76 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 74 [23][24] 3.2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Domestic Resumption of Production and Peak of Hot Metal - **Imports**: In April, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,313.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 131.93, and the cumulative imports were 38,847.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 6,688.78 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315.11; lump ore imports were 1,899.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.02; pellet imports were 281.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 81.34; and iron concentrate imports were 1,443.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 288.67 [31][37] - **Domestic Supply**: On May 30, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises (363 mines) was 61.01%, a decrease of 4.14% from the previous period. As of May 30, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.23 from the previous period, and the iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 105.92 million tons, an increase of 5.37 from the previous period [43] - **Foreign Supply**: As of May 23, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 million tons, an increase of 23 from the previous period. Australia's shipments were 1,970.8 million tons, an increase of 143, and Brazil's shipments were 758.3 million tons, a decrease of 120. As of May 30, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.56 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.27, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was 19.86 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.12 [51] - **Port Supply**: On May 23, the arrivals at 45 major domestic ports were 2,151.3 million tons, a decrease of 120 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 80, a decrease of 9 from the previous period. The daily average ore clearance volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 326.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 from the previous period [56] - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,866.58 million tons, a weekly decrease of 121.25. The inventory of 247 domestic steel mills' imported iron ore was 8,754.33 million tons last Friday, a weekly decrease of 171.15, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.68 million tons/day, a decrease of 2.19. The total inventory of the two was 22,620.91 million tons, a decrease of 292.4 from the previous period [57] - **Steel Mills' Demand**: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 58.87%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 241.91 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 from the previous period. As of May 30, the furnace - charge ratio of steel mills was 73.19% for sintering ore, 14.63% for pellet ore, and 12.19% for lump ore [66] 3.3. Investment Strategy: Unclear Direction, Wait and See - **Investment Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors should focus on the range of 690 - 730 [70][71]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a rise of 4.24 points to 1345.17 as of May 9, while the China Export Container Freight Index decreased by 1.3% to 1106.38 [1] - Mysteel's survey indicated that the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills reached 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.022 million tons [1] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments announced adjustments to management measures for customs special supervision zones, effective June 10, 2025 [2] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 10 totaled 293,991 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last month [2] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association urged major nitrogen fertilizer companies to reduce urea factory prices within three days to not exceed levels prior to May 6 [2]