钢铁产业链价格走势

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钢铁产业链:5月价格普跌,6月或延续跌势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 05:14
Core Viewpoint - The steel industry chain prices weakened overall in May, with a potential continuation of the downward trend into June due to seasonal demand weakness, loosening cost support, and macroeconomic pressures [1] Demand Factors - Domestic steel demand is weak as the industry enters a traditional construction off-season, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance despite high iron water production and acceptable steel mill profits [1] - Steel exports have declined, contributing to the overall weak demand [1] Cost Factors - Iron ore prices have decreased, and coal and coke prices continue to fall, resulting in reduced cost support for steel production [1] - The cost decline is more pronounced in raw materials compared to finished steel products, with coke prices showing a year-on-year decline but only a slight month-on-month decrease [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on Chinese goods has created a negative impact, although recent talks have led to some consensus without sufficient positive support for the market [1] Production and Profitability - The average profit margin in the steel industry chain has improved year-on-year, although some segments have seen a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rates for raw material enterprises have generally increased, while iron ore production has significantly decreased year-on-year due to capacity constraints [1] Outlook for June - Steel industry chain prices are expected to continue declining in June, influenced by macroeconomic weakening, potential further declines in raw material prices, and a lack of upward drivers in the market [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with risks from seasonal demand and declining exports, leading to increased uncertainty [1]