Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term market bullish sentiment has cooled, and coking coal prices have declined to repair the basis. The short - term volatility is large, so it is recommended to focus on risk control and adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Recently, the bullish sentiment in the coking coal and coke market has further cooled. The price of the near - delivery month contract has dropped significantly, with the main contract falling by more than 5%, dragging down the weak operation of the ferrous metal sector [3]. - The spill - over impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has gradually cooled. The short - term high inventory of imported Mongolian coal and the weak delivery logic have affected the decline of coal prices [3]. Supply Data - From January to February 2026, the cumulative output of domestic coking coal was 75.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The cumulative import of coking coal from January to February was 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.814 million tons, an increase of 5.21%, which made up for the domestic supply reduction [3]. - Among them, 11.0668 million tons were imported from Mongolia, a year - on - year increase of 71.8%; 5.5022 million tons were imported from Russia, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. The two countries together accounted for about 84%. Other seaborne coals showed varying degrees of year - on - year decline [3]. - In March, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 185,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with the average from January to February, and an increase of 69,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the port exceeded 4.3 million tons, at a relatively high level [3]. Demand Situation - Steel mills' blast furnaces are in the process of resuming production. However, recently, some areas in Hebei have been affected by environmental protection policies, and the resumption rhythm has been slightly hindered. Last week, the average daily pig iron output rebounded to 2.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53,000 tons [3]. - Currently, finished products have entered the de - stocking cycle, and the characteristics of the peak season will continue, supporting the implementation of the blast furnace resumption expectation [3]. Spot Market - On the spot side, steel mills in some regions have successively accepted the coke price increase. The upward trend of the coking coal price in the production area has slowed down slightly [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market bullish sentiment has cooled, and coking coal prices have fallen to repair the basis. Short - term fluctuations are large, with risk control emphasized and a wait - and - see approach recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Parts Market Situation - Yesterday, market sentiment gradually cooled, and prices continued to fluctuate and decline with relatively sharp overall fluctuations. On the spot side, some regional steel mills have successively accepted the coke price increase, which is planned to be implemented on April 1st. The price of coking coal in the producing areas continued a slight upward trend [2]. Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative domestic production of coking clean coal was 75.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The cumulative import of coking coal from January to February was 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 981,400 tons, an increase of 5.21%, which made up for the domestic supply reduction of coking coal. Among them, 11.0668 million tons were imported from Mongolia, a year - on - year increase of 71.8%; 5.5022 million tons were imported from Russia, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. The two countries together accounted for about 84%. Other seaborne coal showed varying degrees of year - on - year decline. Affected by the inertia of import impulse since December last year, high - frequency data showed that the customs clearance of Mongolian coal in March continued to remain high. The average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 185,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with the average from January to February and an increase of 69,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the port exceeded 4.3 million tons, at a relatively high level [2]. Demand - Steel mills' blast furnaces are in the process of resuming production. However, recently, some areas in Hebei have been affected by environmental protection policies, and the resumption of production has been slightly hindered. The average daily pig iron output last week rebounded to 2.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53,000 tons. Currently, finished products have entered the inventory reduction cycle, and the characteristics of the peak season will continue, supporting the expected implementation of blast furnace resumption of production [2]. Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in spot prices and the resumption of production of steel mills [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is still at the bottom, but the downward trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; the infrastructure sector is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The short - term increase in iron ore prices due to negotiation events is not sustainable, and the trend of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The black - series prices may face downward pressure, and the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the oversupply issue [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit their upward space [58] - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand is currently stable but weak. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand needs to be verified [96] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Macro Data - The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the downward trend is stabilizing [4] - The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The single - month steel consumption in January was 1.01577 million tons (automobile industry association's data), a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; in February, it was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - The infrastructure investment completion amount in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption of railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0% and 31.1% [8] Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3183, 3123, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3297, and 3303 yuan/ton respectively [10] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and their basis data are provided, showing slight daily and weekly changes [14] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot spread between roll and rebar in different regions are presented, with some changes compared to the previous day [19] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts remained unchanged on March 20, 2026, compared to the previous day [23] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and not sustainable. The shipping volume has decreased due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron ore supply and demand situation shows that the iron - water production will increase with复产, but the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, and the profit may be under pressure again after复产. The ports are accumulating inventory seasonally, but there is a prominent structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources. The valuation is at a high level, and the near - month contracts are in a positive - spread pattern. Overall, the event - driven price increase is not long - lasting, and the oversupply trend remains [27] Price and Fundamental Data - The closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 759, 815.5, and 781 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [28][30][31] - The basis data of different contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [30][31] - The fundamental data such as daily average iron - water production, 45 - port desilting volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, 45 - port arrival volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel mill inventory are presented, with corresponding week - on - week and month - on - month changes [39] Coal - Coke Market Analysis - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress China's short - term steel exports. In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall black - series prices may face significant downward pressure. The coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom due to the increase in overseas energy prices, but the oversupply issue will restrict their price elasticity, so one should not be overly optimistic [43] Price Data - The coal - coke futures price differences between different contracts, the coking profit on the disk, and the ratios of main contracts are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [44] - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions, as well as the import and export profits and price ratios, are presented, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [45][47] Ferroalloys Market Analysis - In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates limit their upward space [58] Price Data - The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [59][61] - The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, steam coal, and manganese ore, as well as the warehouse receipt data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, are presented, with corresponding changes [61] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The rigid demand is currently stable but weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the disk price rises, there is some replenishment space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but the price increase space is limited due to the limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, other sectors or macro factors may also have an impact [69] Price Data - The closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1202, 1274, and 1322 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [73] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and the price differences between them are presented, with no significant daily changes [73] Glass Market Analysis - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. However, the high intermediate inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be significant, and the downstream may not be able to absorb the supply. There are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines waiting to be ignited in Shahe. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors may also have an impact [96] Price and Sales Data - The closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1054, 1181, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data in different regions are also provided [97] - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions are presented for several days [99]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The expectation of rising hot metal production is expected to boost the sentiment of the raw material market. However, due to the transmission of overseas geopolitical conflicts, the valuation of coking coal and coke has rebounded, and the price rebound is weak. Short - term risk control is needed to avoid chasing up [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices rose first and then fell, closing down at the end of the session, with a slight rebound at night. The overall fluctuation was still relatively intense. The 05 contract of coking coal should pay attention to the resistance level of 1,200 yuan/ton [2] Production Data - From January to February 2026, China's raw coal output was 760 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; the cumulative coke output was 8.255 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.8%; the cumulative pig iron output was 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the cumulative crude steel output was 16.034 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [2] Supply Side - In terms of coking coal fundamentals, coal mine production has returned to a high level. This week, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.969 million tons and 798,000 tons respectively, an increase of 33,000 tons and 21,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, and the production increase rate has slowed down. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal remained at a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of 187,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. In the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [2] Demand Side - Last week, the hot metal output dropped to 2.21 million tons. With the lifting of phased emission reduction restrictions, it is expected to rebound significantly this week, and the procurement of raw materials by coking and steel enterprises has improved [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron - water recovery expectation is expected to boost the raw material market sentiment, but the price increase due to the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts has already reflected the demand recovery expectation. Short - term risk control is necessary to avoid chasing up [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated. The impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts still exists, and the overall fluctuation is relatively intense. The 05 contract of coking coal should pay attention to the pressure in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [3] - The coke market is mainly stable, and coke enterprises have no plans to raise prices recently. The price of coking coal in some production areas has increased slightly [3] Production and Import Data - From January to February 2026, China's raw coal production was 7.6 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; the cumulative coke production was 8.255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; the cumulative pig iron production was 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the cumulative crude steel production was 16.034 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [3] - Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 1.08 million tons and 290,000 tons compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level [4] - The daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal remained at a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of 187,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. In the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 7.7222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [4] Demand Situation - Last week, the molten iron output dropped to 2.21 million tons. With the lifting of phased emission reduction restrictions, it is expected to rebound significantly this week, and the procurement of raw materials by coking and steel enterprises has improved [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coal and coke fundamentals temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have high uncertainty, and the price fluctuations in the energy and chemical sector are intense, which have a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term attention should be paid to risk control and avoid chasing up [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Coal and Coke Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices rose and then fell, and showed a slight decline at night, with relatively intense overall fluctuations, and overseas geopolitical conflicts still had an impact [2] - On the spot side, the coke market remained stable, and coke enterprises had no plans to raise prices recently; the prices of coking coal in individual producing areas increased slightly [2] Production and Import Data - From January to February 2026, China's raw coal production was 760 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; the cumulative coke production was 8.255 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.8%; the cumulative pig iron production was 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the cumulative crude steel production was 16.034 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [2] - The production of coal mines has basically recovered. Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108,000 tons and 29,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level [2] - The daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal remained at a relatively high level. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume was 187,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase [2] - In the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [2] Demand Situation - This week, the molten iron output is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the procurement of raw materials by coking and steel enterprises has warmed up [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The fundamental situation of coal and coke temporarily maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The uncertainty of overseas geopolitical conflicts is relatively high, and the price fluctuations in the energy and chemical sectors are intense, which has a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term risk control should be noted, and chasing up should be avoided [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the center of the coal and coke futures price moved slightly upward, and the overall fluctuation was relatively intense. The coking coal price was driven by the energy and chemical sectors [3] Supply Side - In terms of coal and coke fundamentals, coal mine production has basically recovered. Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108,000 tons and 29,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal has returned to a relatively high level. The average daily customs clearance volume in the week of March 7 was 186,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. According to customs data, in the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [3] Demand Side - Recently, due to steel mills implementing emission reduction measures, the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces has dropped to 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons compared with the previous period, and a cumulative decrease of 120,800 tons in the past two weeks, exceeding market expectations. With the conclusion of the Two Sessions, steel mills will resume production this week. The draft report on the national economic and social development plan for 2026 mentioned that in 2026, efforts will be made to continue to promote the quality improvement, cost reduction, and carbon reduction actions in key industries; comprehensively implement measures to address "involution - style" competition; promote the balance and stability of supply and demand in key industries such as steel and significantly improve the profitability of enterprises; and orderly reduce the production capacity of industries such as steel [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of coking coal and coke temporarily maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The uncertainty of overseas geopolitical conflicts is relatively strong, and the prices of the energy and chemical sector fluctuate violently, which has a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term risk control should be noted [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke first rose and then fell, and fluctuated strongly at night, with relatively violent overall fluctuations. The energy and chemical sector strengthened again. On the spot side, the coking price remained stable after the first round of reduction, and the price of coking coal in individual producing areas increased slightly [3] Supply - This week, coal mines increased production further. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal of 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108,000 tons and 29,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level. After the festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port returned to a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of 186,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. From January to February, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [3] Demand - Recently, due to the implementation of emission reduction measures by steel mills, the average daily output of blast furnace hot metal this week dropped to 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons compared with the previous week, and a cumulative decrease of 120,800 tons in the past two weeks, exceeding market expectations. After the closing of the Two Sessions yesterday, it is expected that steel mills will gradually resume production. The raw material inventory in downstream enterprises has increased [3]

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The recent sharp price fluctuations in the energy and chemical sectors have a certain impact on the sentiment of the coking coal market. Short - term risk control should be noted [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price dropped significantly, erasing the previous day's gains with high volatility. The continuous expectation of overseas geopolitical conflicts has decreased, and the prices of energy and chemical products such as crude oil have significantly corrected, causing coking coal and coke to follow the downward trend [3] - The steel mills' first round of coking price cuts has been gradually implemented, and the coking coal prices at production areas have been reduced by 20 - 70 yuan/ton [3] Supply Side - Last week, coal mines continued the resumption process. After the Lantern Festival, most coal mines in major production areas have fully resumed production. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal last week was 1.829 million tons and 748,000 tons respectively, an increase of 313,000 tons and 99,000 tons compared with the previous week [3] - After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganjigam port for Mongolian coal has returned to a relatively high level. The average daily customs clearance volume last week was 186,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. In the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [3] Demand Side - Currently, important meetings are being held, and some regional steel mills are implementing phased production restrictions. The molten iron output has decreased significantly. The average daily molten iron output of steel mill blast furnaces last week was 2.276 million tons. Downstream enterprises mainly consume the raw material inventory in the factory [3] - The impact of environmental protection and production restriction policies will still exist this week and is expected to gradually recover next week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term. The mid - to long - term strategy for some commodities can consider building long positions by leveraging the discount advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The energy price increase raises inflation risks and suppresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the unexpected February non - farm payrolls in the US increase the risk of economic stagflation, which also supports the prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have a wide - ranging impact on the commodity market, affecting supply, demand, and cost factors of various commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Precious Metals**: Affected by factors such as inflation risk, economic stagflation risk, and geopolitical games, precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and platinum - palladium prices may fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Due to the deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories, copper prices are running weakly [1]. - **Aluminum**: The supply disturbances in the Middle East and the increase in energy costs are expected to drive aluminum prices to be strong. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbances in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has slightly declined, but the inventory has further accumulated, with a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and nickel prices may oscillate at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the steel mills' production schedule in March has increased significantly. The social inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are highly volatile and oscillating. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the price is expected to oscillate. After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has significant upward pressure, but due to geopolitical conflicts, it is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward trend. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive factors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply and geopolitical conflicts provide cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The cost is supported by the increase in energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are weak in the short term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows the trend of glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand will be more relaxed in the medium term, with price pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of spot price cuts has begun, but the market has already priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The market is waiting to see, and industrial players can establish cash - and - carry positions in the 05 contract on rebounds [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, which in turn affects the prices of related energy and chemical products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, the market sentiment is positive, and the risk appetite of funds has recovered [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is relatively small, but the price is affected by the cost transmission of crude oil [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the festival, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the basis difference has expanded to a high level in the same period, and the raw material cost has strong support [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Due to the impact of the shutdown of upstream production, the inventory may turn into a deficit. The cost of butadiene has strong support, and the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is in a loss state, with an increasing expectation of maintenance and production reduction [1]. - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors lead to a strong expectation of crude oil prices. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply, and the supply of PX is tight, which affects the downstream polyester industry [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to the reduction of raw materials caused by geopolitical factors, domestic ethylene glycol plants have seen a sharp increase in prices [1]. - **Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene and styrene markets are strongly rising due to multiple disturbances on the supply side, and the spot supply of styrene is extremely tight [1]. - **Methanol**: The import from Iran is affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, the global production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the geopolitical conflict has an impact on the raw material supply, with a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - **LPG**: The price is affected by factors such as the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the CP price, and the domestic and overseas demand. The basis difference is expected to repair and expand, and the demand side is short - term bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, but the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a state of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar supply is also relatively abundant. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The Middle East conflict supports the prices of soybean and soybean meal. The short - term focus should be on international situation dynamics, and unilateral operations should be cautious [1]. - **Pulp**: The fundamental situation of pulp futures is weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price of logs has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The external quotation is expected to rise, providing upward momentum for the market [1]. - **Livestock**: The recent spot price has stabilized, the demand is supported, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1].