交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比回落 0.6 万吨至 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以 | | | | | 扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利 | | | | | 润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高 | | | | | 位震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保供会议召开，市场 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 担 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - **Glass**: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Edible oils**: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - **Meal**: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - **PX**: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - **PR**: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - **PF**: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].

晨报 煤焦 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡季压力向原材料端的传导。焦煤主力合约价格迫近震荡区间 下限，考验下方支撑。 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 20 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价延续震荡下行走势，贴水现货运行，弱交割逻辑 拖累近月价格。现货市场总体弱稳，主产地主焦煤价格回调 40-50 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，本周山西吕梁多座煤矿继续恢复到满产状态，原煤产 量回升明显，陕西延安子长当地交通恢复，涉及煤矿恢复生产，抬升整体 产量数据回升。本周精煤日均产量 75.8 万吨，环比前一周微增 0.1 万吨， 同比下降 3.8 万吨。进口端，上周（11.10-11.15）甘其毛都口岸蒙煤日 均通关量 17.45 万吨，较前一周下降 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating. The upward driving force of coking coal and coke has weakened, and the short-term adjustment trend continues. The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is at the bottom and oscillating. The demand for glass is weak, and the inventory continues to increase. The market for financial futures and options is volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The price of gold is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The price of logs is oscillating at the bottom, and the price of pulp is weakly oscillating. The oil and fat market is range-bound, and the meal market is oscillating with a weak bias. The price of live pigs is oscillating, and the slaughter rate is slowly rising. The price of rubber is oscillating, and the demand is gradually recovering. The PX, PTA, and MEG markets are oscillating, and the PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while domestic port arrivals have continued to decline. The daily average hot metal output has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for iron ore has marginally improved. However, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target, the futures market has continued to decline. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, but the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited. The cost pressure of coking plants is high, and the intention to start work is not high. The supply concerns in the coking coal industry have intensified, and the futures market is in a short-term adjustment trend [2] - **Rebar and wire rod**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not yet started. The core lies in the demand for steel, and the domestic demand is difficult to change. The steel price will stop falling depending on whether the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be strictly implemented by more than 5% and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy implementation. Currently, the steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2] Non-ferrous Metals - **Glass**: The spot price has been relatively weak recently, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The positive news in the market has been exhausted, and the demand for glass is generally weak. The enterprise inventory has continued to increase. According to the current supply and demand level, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity contradiction in the entire industry chain [2] - **Soda ash**: The report does not provide specific information on soda ash, only stating that the investment rating is oscillation [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance was mixed, with the CSI 300 rising by 0.44%, the SSE 50 rising by 0.58%, the CSI 500 falling by 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 falling by 0.82%. The precious metals and oil and gas sectors had capital inflows, while the gas and cultural media sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond has increased by 1bp, and the central bank has carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan. The net investment on the day is 11.5 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and silver**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The price of gold and silver is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [4] Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased, and the demand is expected to have no significant increase. The import volume of coniferous logs in September has increased compared with the previous month. The inventory pressure is relatively large, and the spot price is running steadily. It is expected that the log price will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp is running steadily. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is expected that the pulp price will be weakly oscillating [5] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price of offset paper is running steadily. The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price stockpiling is low. It is expected that the price will be weakly oscillating [5] Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The US soybean crushing has reached a record high, and the demand for soybean raw materials is strong. The production of Malaysian palm oil is higher than expected, and the export performance is strong. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the overall oil and fat market will continue to operate in a range [5] - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal**: The USDA report shows that the US soybean production, export, and ending inventory have all been adjusted down compared with September. The global soybean supply is still relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by the high livestock inventory, but the high price of soybean meal suppresses the replenishment intention. It is expected that the soybean meal will be oscillating with a weak bias in the short term [5][8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork has improved, and the slaughter rate has slowly increased. It is expected that the price of live pigs will oscillate, and the slaughter rate will continue to rise [8] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, while the output in Hainan is lower than expected. The overall inventory is still at a low level. The demand has gradually recovered, and the price is oscillating [10] Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: The PX supply is strong, and the downstream polyester is at the turning point between the off-season and the peak season. The PTA price is mainly oscillating with the cost side. The MEG has a long-term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short-term price is in a wide-range adjustment [10] - **PR and PF**: The PR market may oscillate weakly, and the PF market may be weakly sorted [10]

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-19） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比增加 2.66 万吨至 236.88 万吨铁水产量止跌回升，铁矿石需求边际回暖。 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个月高位。 | | | | | 铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一 | | | | | 步扩大，目前钢厂的利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈 | | | | | 概率不大，铁矿价格震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 19 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡下行，焦煤近月合约跌幅超 4.0%，夜盘延 续弱势，贴水现货运行，弱交割逻辑拖累近月价格。现货市场总体弱稳， 个别煤种价格回调。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：市场情绪偏弱 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75. ...

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面承压运行 关注需求变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡季压力向原材料端的传导。焦煤价格尚在 1100-1300 元/吨 区间内运行。 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 18 日 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比前一周增加 1.9 ...

| | | | 铁矿：鲍威尔鹰派发言引发降息预期摇摆，宏观利好落地，黑色价格回归 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 基本面。供应方面，中国 47 港到港总量回落 544.8 万吨至 2769.3 万吨降 | | | | | 幅达 16.44%，主要是受上期高基数影响，仍处于近期偏高水平。铁水小 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 幅回升，核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲 | | | | | 弱难改。港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个 | | | | | 月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，目前钢厂的 | | | | | 利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格 | | | | | 震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损边缘，开工意向不高，焦炭第四轮提涨仍在博弈中。河北唐山地区限产 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term domestic coal mine production shows a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly increased; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated weakly. In the spot market, steel mills in some regions accepted the fourth round of coke price increases [3] Production and Supply - This week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi has recovered, and there is still an expectation of short - term coal mine production increase. The daily output of clean coal is 75.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3 tons. Last week (11.3 - 11.8), the average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 19.52 tons, an increase of 3.09 tons compared with the previous week, and the port supervision area shows an inventory increase trend [3] Demand - The profit of steel mills continues to shrink, and the profitability rate drops below 40%. This week, the daily average pig iron output has rebounded to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. The phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area has been lifted recently, which promotes the rebound of pig iron output [3] Price - The coking coal price is still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, while the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly increased; demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. Coking coal prices are still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued at night. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing strengthening coal production organization and transportation guarantee. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices have risen again, and the fourth round of coke price increase is still in the negotiation process [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output decreased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 tons, a decrease of 2 tons from the previous week and 4.6 tons year - on - year. On the import side, from November 3rd to 8th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 19.52 tons, an increase of 3.09 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] - **Demand Side**: Steel mills' profits continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average hot metal output decreased to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons from the previous week. The recent decline in hot metal is related to the significant narrowing of profits and the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan. Currently, the profitability level will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills, and the phased restrictions in Tangshan have been lifted. Later, attention should be paid to the changes in steel mills' profitability and production rhythm [3] Group 4: Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in steel mills' blast furnace start - up and the resumption of coal mine production [4]