国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 | liuyuwu2@gtht.com | | 樊园园 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 | fanyuanyuan@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：地产预期回暖，钢价小幅上涨 2、铁矿观点：低估值强预期，矿价小幅反弹 3、煤焦观点：仓单扰动 ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，春节期间多数煤矿停产放假，产地供应大幅收紧，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量周环比减少160.34万吨至1021.77万吨，精煤产量周环节减 少78.21万吨至501.34万吨，产能利用率周环比下降11.16%至71.09%，不过国有煤矿多数停产3-5天，民营煤矿也多于周初陆续复产，预计整体供应将快速恢复。进 口方面，中国煤炭资源网统计本周（2.24-2.26）满都拉口岸共通关3天，日均通关257车，较节前同期日均减少124车。节后下游多谨慎采买，对原料压价意愿较强， 口岸交投氛围冷清，贸易商多挺价观望，口岸报价整体弱稳，其中满都拉主焦煤报价780元/吨左右，周环比基本持平；气原煤口岸报价570-580元/吨，周环比基本 持平。。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 市场成交活跃度较前期有所提升，线上竞拍流拍率高位回落 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 27 日 逻辑：昨日，黑色金属板块期货价格震荡回落，煤焦表现相对更弱。 近日 Mysteel 消息，华北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国重要会议期间临时 自主减排通知，要求企业在 3 月 4 日—3 月 11 日执行阶段性减排管控， 高炉负荷按不低于 30%比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原 料库存情况，制定专项减排执行方案，按要求上报备案，减排消息促使煤 焦价格反弹乏力。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从煤焦基上面来看，本周煤矿正式进入复产高峰期，多数民营煤矿已 开始恢复生产，数据显示，本周原煤、精煤日产 151.6 万吨、64.9 万吨， 分别较前一周增加 43.0 万吨、19.0 万吨。进口端，节前蒙煤甘其毛都口 岸日通关量下降，节中短暂闭关，目前已恢复通关，2 月 23 日通关量约 18 万吨，口岸监管区库存整体尚处高位。春节期间物流运输出现一定影 响，货物周转效率有所降低，下游企业以消耗厂内原料库存为主，部分焦 化企业焦炭外运受限，厂内库存因此有所积压。需求端，本周钢厂高炉日 均铁水产量 233 万吨左右，下周受环保限产政策影响，预计铁水增 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求阶段性承压 价格震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 26 日 逻辑：昨日，上海发布楼市"沪七条"进一步调减住房限购政策，刺 激地产相关板块情绪走强，煤焦钢期价悉数收涨。另据 Mysteel 消息，华 北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国重要会议期间临时自主减排通知，要求企 业在 3 月 4 日—3 月 11 日执行阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于 30% 比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况，制定专项 减排执行方案，按要求上报备案，减排消息 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is general. The overall sentiment in the ferrous metal market is weak, and prices are running weakly. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to controlling position risks [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices continued to run in a weak and volatile manner, with a reduced amplitude, and the prices were close to the lower edge of the recent volatile range. Due to the seasonal off - season, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the overall trend of the ferrous metal sector was weak [3] Fundamental Analysis - This week, the scope of domestic coal mine shutdowns for holidays expanded, and market activity further cooled down. Coke and steel enterprises basically completed their inventory replenishment, and traders began to take holidays. The market trading atmosphere was cold, and the auction price continued to decline. Due to the supply contraction caused by coal mine holidays and the low procurement demand of coke and steel enterprises, the market was characterized by weak supply and demand, and the upstream pit - mouth inventory changed little [3] - This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.808 million tons and 743,000 tons respectively, a week - on - week decrease of 118,000 tons and 12,000 tons respectively [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal decreased slightly last week. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the 2026 Spring Festival, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17 - 20), and will be normally closed on February 15 and February 22 (Sundays) [3] - On the demand side, the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills increased steadily. This week, the average daily pig iron output increased to about 2.305 million tons [3]

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 12 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格延续弱势震荡运行，价格靠近近期震荡区 间下沿。近日季节性淡季，市场交投情绪降温，黑色金属板块整体走势偏 弱。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，本周国内煤矿停产放假范围扩大，市场活跃度进一步 降温，焦钢企业补库基本完成，贸易商开始放假休市，市场成交氛围冷清， 竞拍价格继续下探。由于煤矿放假供应收缩，而焦钢采购需求低迷，市场 供需双弱，上游坑口库存变化不大。本周原煤、精煤日产 180.8 万吨、74.3 万吨，分别环比下降 11.8 万吨、1.2 万吨。进口端，上周蒙煤甘其毛都 口岸日通关量略有下降，根据中蒙两国双边协定，2026 年春节期间三大 口岸闭关，正月初一至初四（2 月 17 日至 20 日）闭关四天，2 月 15 日、 2 月 22 日周日正常闭关。需求端，钢厂生产相对平稳，日均铁水产量维 持 228 万吨左右。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 观点：当前煤焦供需矛盾一般，黑色金属市场整体情绪偏弱，价格偏 弱势运行，节前最后一周，注意持仓风险控制。 煤焦：交投情绪降温 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：情绪偏低迷 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 10 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格震荡小幅收涨，夜盘价格再度走弱。近日 钢矿整体走势偏弱，叠加季节性淡季，抑制煤焦反弹高度。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，上周国内煤矿陆续开始停产放假，据 Mysteel 调研， 云南、山西晋中等地煤矿放假较早，产量下滑较为明显，本周农历腊月二 十三左右，将进入民营煤矿放假高峰期，停产煤矿激增，产量将大幅下滑。 上周原煤、精煤日产 192.5 万吨、75.5 万吨，分别环比下降 5.3 万吨、 1.6 万吨。煤减量预期对煤价存在一定支撑，不过减产基本符合往年规律， 下游已提前备货，不具备持续上涨驱动。进口端，上周蒙煤甘其毛都口岸 日通关量略有下降。需求端，钢厂生产相对平稳，日均铁水产量维持 228 万吨左右。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：当前煤焦供需矛盾一般，黑色金属市场整体情绪偏弱，价格偏 弱是运行，节前最后一周，注意持仓风险控制。 后期关注/风险因素：关注焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector showed a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling, and coal and coke rising first and then falling, overall performing weakly. The iron ore futures led the decline. In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, with non - ferrous metals having the largest decline [4]. - Globally, uncertainties have increased. The US continues to impose sanctions on Iran, and Trump nominated Wash as the Fed Chairman, which caused market fluctuations. Domestically, over 30 provinces have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, showing overall stability [4]. - In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. At the raw material end, downstream enterprises continued to replenish stocks before the festival. Due to the Indonesian government's proposal to significantly cut coal production, many Indonesian coal mining enterprises have suspended spot coal exports [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector had a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling and coal and coke rising first and then falling [4]. 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, and non - ferrous metals had the largest decline [4]. 03 Spot Prices - Scrap steel prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [18]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The electric furnace profit worsened, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [19]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. However, the current absolute inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The recent weakness is mainly due to the weakening of cost support [5]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. Before the festival, the steel mill inventory has been replenished to a level slightly lower than the normal level in recent years. Although the iron ore shipments have significantly declined compared to the end of last year, according to the previous shipment data, the expected arrival volume is still acceptable, and iron ore may continue the inventory accumulation pattern [5]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, the raw coal output declined, the total coking coal inventory continued to accumulate, and coal - using enterprises continued to replenish stocks. However, the pre - festival stock replenishment is about to end. Attention should be paid to the Indonesian coal policy [5]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Last week, the coke output increased slightly, and the inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises improved [5]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar - iron ore price ratio strengthened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread widened [37]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple important events occurred, including high - level phone calls and video meetings between countries, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" central first - document, the determination of GDP growth targets by 30 provinces in China, US sanctions on Iran, changes in US economic data, the establishment of a key minerals trading mechanism by the US, EU's adjustment of carbon market rules, and the suspension of coal exports by Indonesian coal mining enterprises [42].

晨报 煤焦 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 9 日 煤焦：煤产量季节性下滑 盘面震荡运行 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格受印尼削减生产配额传闻刺激，价格拉涨， 但随后削减信息被官方认定为无效信息，煤焦期货价格先扬后抑。近日钢 矿整体走势偏弱，叠加季节性淡季，抑制煤焦反弹高度。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 投资咨询业务资格： 从基上面来看，上周国内煤矿陆续开始停产放假，据 Mysteel 调研， 云南、山西晋中等地煤矿放假较早，产量下滑较为明显，本周农历腊月二 十三左右，将进入民营煤矿放假 ...

Group 1 - The company ST Xuefa (002485) closed at 4.36 yuan on February 6, 2026, down 0.68%, with a turnover rate of 0.69% and a trading volume of 37,400 hands, amounting to 16.21 million yuan [1] - On February 6, 2026, the net outflow of main funds was 3.12 million yuan, while retail funds showed a net inflow of 0.84 million yuan [4] - The company plans to apply for a financing limit of no more than 1 billion yuan for 2026, with mutual guarantees among subsidiaries, and a total new guarantee limit of no more than 1 billion yuan [2][4] Group 2 - The company intends to continue its futures hedging business to mitigate operational risks from price fluctuations in main commodities such as steel, aluminum, and coking coal, with a maximum margin of 75 million yuan [2][3] - The company has established internal control systems and risk management measures to ensure compliance and safety of funds in the futures hedging operations [3]