Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment for rebar and hot-rolled coil remains strong, with both showing wide fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.80%); HC2510 was 3,292 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.23%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,501,721 lots, and the open interest was 2,126,876 lots, a decrease of 10,181 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 698,968 lots, and the open interest was 1,610,257 lots, an increase of 60,284 lots [1]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,220 yuan/ton, 3,280 yuan/ton, 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,320 yuan/ton, 3,330 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 was 87 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2510 was 28 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 was -46 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2510 - HC2601 was -16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spread of HC2510 - RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 3 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output and Inventory**: On July 17, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production decreased by 7.6 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 2 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. Total rebar inventory increased by 2.89 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.33 tons, while that for hot-rolled coil increased by 1.28 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [2]. - **Key Steel Enterprises' Production and Inventory**: In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons (2.4%) from the previous ten-day period [3]. - **National Steel Production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year decrease. The daily average output of crude steel was 2.773 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a 3.0% year-on-year decrease [3]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3]. - **Steel Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 900,000 tons (8.5%) from the previous month, with an average price of 687.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 US dollars/ton (1.5%). From January to June, China exported 58.147 million tons of steel, an increase of 4.908 million tons (9.2%) year-on-year [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, as the trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].