据此估算，本旬全国日产粗钢228万吨、环比增长5.3%，日产生铁209万吨、环比增长0.2%，日产钢材 387万吨、环比下降5.4%。 分地区看，12月上旬六大地区中，除东北、西南、中南地区重点统计企业粗钢日产量较上一旬有所下降 外，其它地区均有不同程度增加。 同时公布的库存旬报显示，2025年12月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量1475万吨，环比上一旬增加 47万吨，增长3.3%；比年初增加238万吨，增长19.2%；比上月同旬减少74万吨，下降4.8%；比去年同 旬增加57万吨，增长4.0%，比前年同旬增加65万吨，增长4.6%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月15日电中国钢铁工业协会15日发布数据显示，2025年12月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业共 生产粗钢1869万吨，平均日产186.9万吨，日产环比增长2.8%；生铁1714万吨，平均日产171.4万吨，日 产环比下降3.4%；钢材1829万吨，平均日产182.9万吨，日产环比下降12.1% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment for rebar and hot-rolled coil remains strong, with both showing wide fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.80%); HC2510 was 3,292 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.23%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,501,721 lots, and the open interest was 2,126,876 lots, a decrease of 10,181 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 698,968 lots, and the open interest was 1,610,257 lots, an increase of 60,284 lots [1]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,220 yuan/ton, 3,280 yuan/ton, 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,320 yuan/ton, 3,330 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 was 87 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2510 was 28 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 was -46 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2510 - HC2601 was -16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spread of HC2510 - RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 3 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output and Inventory**: On July 17, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production decreased by 7.6 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 2 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. Total rebar inventory increased by 2.89 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.33 tons, while that for hot-rolled coil increased by 1.28 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [2]. - **Key Steel Enterprises' Production and Inventory**: In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons (2.4%) from the previous ten-day period [3]. - **National Steel Production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year decrease. The daily average output of crude steel was 2.773 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a 3.0% year-on-year decrease [3]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3]. - **Steel Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 900,000 tons (8.5%) from the previous month, with an average price of 687.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 US dollars/ton (1.5%). From January to June, China exported 58.147 million tons of steel, an increase of 4.908 million tons (9.2%) year-on-year [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, as the trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].