Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment for rebar and hot-rolled coil remains strong, with both showing wide fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.80%); HC2510 was 3,292 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.23%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,501,721 lots, and the open interest was 2,126,876 lots, a decrease of 10,181 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 698,968 lots, and the open interest was 1,610,257 lots, an increase of 60,284 lots [1]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,220 yuan/ton, 3,280 yuan/ton, 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,320 yuan/ton, 3,330 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 was 87 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2510 was 28 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 was -46 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2510 - HC2601 was -16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spread of HC2510 - RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 3 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output and Inventory**: On July 17, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production decreased by 7.6 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 2 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. Total rebar inventory increased by 2.89 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.33 tons, while that for hot-rolled coil increased by 1.28 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [2]. - **Key Steel Enterprises' Production and Inventory**: In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons (2.4%) from the previous ten-day period [3]. - **National Steel Production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year decrease. The daily average output of crude steel was 2.773 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a 3.0% year-on-year decrease [3]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3]. - **Steel Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 900,000 tons (8.5%) from the previous month, with an average price of 687.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 US dollars/ton (1.5%). From January to June, China exported 58.147 million tons of steel, an increase of 4.908 million tons (9.2%) year-on-year [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, as the trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The demand outlook for rebar and hot-rolled coils is weakening, and they are expected to fluctuate at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 2,981 yuan/ton and 3,095 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) and -2 yuan/ton (-0.06%). The trading volumes were 1,433,362 lots and 512,180 lots, and the open interests were 2,196,722 lots and 1,585,218 lots, with changes of -19,727 lots and +2,740 lots respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Beijing remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Tianjin remained stable, and the price in Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet remained at 2,900 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 129 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. The spreads RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, and HC2601 - RB2601 all decreased, while the spot coil - rebar spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to -3 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Economic Data**: In May, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. The national consumer price decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The average national consumer price from January to May decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Steel Trade Data**: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 million tons of steel, a 1.1% increase from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 4846.9 million tons, an 8.9% increase year - on - year. In May, China imported 48.1 million tons of steel, a 7.9% decrease from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 255.3 million tons, a 16.1% decrease year - on - year [3]. - **Steel Production Data**: In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2300 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 209.1 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output month - on - month), 2104 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 191.3 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month), and 2394 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 217.7 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output month - on - month) [3]. - **Weekly Data**: According to the weekly data on June 5, rebar production decreased by 7.05 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.83 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.79 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.65 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.01 million tons, and the total apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.62 million tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3][4].

Export Situation - In February, China's steel exports totaled 8.036 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.1%, with an average export price of $678.3 per ton, down 8.9% month-on-month [1] - The main exported steel products in February included coated sheets, medium-thick wide steel strips, hot-rolled thin wide steel strips, wire rods, and coated plates, accounting for 63% of total steel exports [2] - Among 22 major steel categories, 17 experienced a month-on-month decline in export volume, with significant drops exceeding 20% for several categories [3] Import Situation - In February, China imported 550,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 10.2%, with an average import price of $1,587.4 per ton, down 6.3% month-on-month [1] - The import volume of large section steel, rebar, hot-rolled narrow steel strips, and coated sheets saw significant reductions, while the import of steel billets increased substantially [5] - The overall structure of steel imports remained stable, but the scale continued to decrease, with notable declines in imports from major countries [7] Price Trends - The average import prices for most steel varieties showed a significant month-on-month decline, while some categories like medium and small section steel, bars, and wire rods experienced slight price increases [6] - The average export price for steel decreased significantly, with a notable drop in the export price of steel billets [8] Future Outlook - The total steel export volume increased year-on-year in January-February, but the total export value decreased, indicating a downward trend in export prices [8] - The steel export situation is expected to remain challenging, with poor order intake reported by major steel exporters after the Spring Festival [8] - Trade remedy investigations initiated against China by foreign countries could significantly impact steel exports, necessitating proactive responses from companies [8]