东方金诚宏观研究 开年信贷季节性大规模投放，金融数据走势较为平稳 事件：2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2026 年 1 月新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿，同比少增 4200 亿；1 月新增社会融资规模为 7.22 万亿，同比多增 1662 亿。1 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 9.0%， 增速较上月末加快 0.5 个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长 4.9%，增速较上月末加快 1.1 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，1 月金融数据比较平稳。其中，1 月贷款季节性大规模投放，同比出现较大幅度少增，主 要原因是当前投资和消费较弱，企业和居民贷款需求仍显乏力，同时，1 月各类稳增长政策落地效果尚不 明显，对贷款需求的撬动和提振作用仍较为有限。1 月社融同比实现多增，主要受政府债券融资拉动，当 月政府债券融资同比较大幅度多增，体现了宏观政策靠前发力、财政资金尽可能提前安排的政策导向。1 月末 M2 增速上行，主要源于非银存款连续大幅同比多增，当前 M2 增速持续处于较高水平。1 月末 M1 增速 回升，背后是上年同期基数较低，前期《保障中小企业款项支付条例》实施对 M1 增速也有一定推升作用 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 14 日 开年金融数据的几点信号 ——2026 年 1 月金融数据点评 投资要点： 事件：2 月 13 日傍晚央行披露了 1 月金融数据：新增贷款 4.71 万亿元，社融增量 7.22 万亿元。1 月末，M2 达 347.2 万亿，YoY+9.0%；M1 YoY +4.9%；社融增速 8.2%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 图表 3：2026 年 1 月社融增量 7.22 万亿，同比小幅多增（亿元） 资料来源：人行官网、华源证券研究所 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 4页 联系人 1 月新增贷款同比明显少增，反映 2026 年信贷需求依然偏弱。由于"早投放早受益"， 年初银行信贷投放动力强，信贷投放节奏普遍前倾。2026 年春节较晚，春节前企业 发年终奖可能促使个人提前偿还个贷，或对 2 月份个贷数据影响较大。2025 年春节 较早，春节错位之下，1 月份新增贷款 4.71 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data released by the People's Bank of China indicates a positive start to the economy in January, with significant growth in social financing and money supply, supporting economic stability at the beginning of the year [1][4]. Financing Channels Diversification - In January, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, 1.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating a recovery in financing demand from the real economy [2]. - Government bond net financing reached 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 13.5% of the monthly social financing increment, the highest level since 2021 [3]. - The growth rate of off-balance-sheet financing tools, such as trust loans and discounted bank acceptance bills, has rebounded, reflecting a diversification of financing channels in the financial market [4]. Money Supply - As of the end of January, the broad money supply (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan, growing by 9% year-on-year, which is 0.5 and 2 percentage points higher than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively [4]. - The narrow money supply (M1) was 117.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The cash in circulation (M0) was 14.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and a net cash injection of 519.1 billion yuan in January to meet pre-Spring Festival liquidity demands [4]. Bank Credit "Opening Red" - The total RMB loan balance at the end of January was 276.62 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, and an increase of 4.71 trillion yuan in January, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. - Corporate loans were the main contributor, increasing by 4.45 trillion yuan in January, with short-term loans rising by 2.05 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 3.18 trillion yuan, accounting for over 70% of the total [5]. - Household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan in January, driven by diverse consumer demands and supportive policies for personal consumption loans [6]. Deposit Performance - The total balance of deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 344.46 trillion yuan at the end of January, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [8]. - RMB deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, with household deposits, non-financial corporate deposits, fiscal deposits, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions all showing significant increases [8]. - The robust growth in deposits indicates overall ample funding supply and sufficient market liquidity, supporting the ongoing efforts of monetary policy to stabilize growth and optimize structure [8].

Economic Indicators - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the annual growth rate dropping by 0.6 percentage points compared to December [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in six months [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing a four-month upward trend, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] Monetary Policy - As of the end of January, the broad money supply (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan, growing by 9% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4] - The total social financing stock was 449.11 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 8.2%, indicating a stable growth in credit [4] - The central bank plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to ensure ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions [4] Internet Platform Regulation - The State Administration for Market Regulation released the "Antitrust Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms," outlining four categories of antitrust risks and providing examples of potential violations [5][6] - The guidelines serve as a non-binding action guide for platforms, aiming to promote fair competition and transparency in the industry [6] AI Industry Developments - Major Chinese companies like ByteDance and Alibaba have launched flagship AI models, leading to significant market enthusiasm and stock price increases [7][8] - The Seedance 2.0 model from ByteDance supports multi-modal input and has reduced video generation costs significantly, showcasing advancements in video generation technology [7] - The release of these models indicates a competitive push in the AI sector, with potential implications for global AI market dynamics [8] Low-altitude Economy Policies - A series of policy documents supporting the low-altitude economy were released, aiming to enhance infrastructure and insurance services by 2027 [9][10] - The policies are expected to facilitate the growth of the low-altitude economy, transitioning it towards a more systematic and standardized development phase [10] Pharmaceutical Regulation - The National Health Commission revised the "National Essential Medicines Directory Management Measures," establishing a rigid adjustment cycle for the essential medicines list [11] - The new measures emphasize the clinical value of drugs and aim to align the essential medicines directory with healthcare policies and practices [11]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for January 2026 indicates a strong start to the year for China's economy, supported by a significant increase in social financing and a favorable monetary policy environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In January 2026, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, setting a historical record for the same period [1]. - The balance of RMB loans grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the stock of social financing increased by 8.2% [3]. - The broad money supply (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9%, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. Group 2: Loan Dynamics - In January, RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 4.45 trillion yuan, indicating strong demand from enterprises [4]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 37.16 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the service sector (excluding real estate) reached 60.03 trillion yuan, up by 9.2% [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity - The consumer market showed robust activity, with personal consumption loans supported by government policies and increased demand for goods and services [4]. - In January, household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 109.7 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down by about 20 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans remained stable at 3.1% [7]. - The low financing costs reflect a relatively abundant credit supply and the effectiveness of financial support to the real economy [7]. Group 5: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has implemented various monetary policies to support the real economy, including structural interest rate cuts and the development of technology, green, and inclusive finance [3][7]. - The ongoing support from a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to enhance financial services and stimulate economic growth [7].

Financial Data Overview - In January 2026, new social financing (社融) reached 72,200 billion RMB, an increase of 1,654 billion RMB year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion RMB, a decrease of 4,200 billion RMB compared to the previous year[4] Loan Structure and Trends - In January, the structure of new loans showed that long-term loans to households increased by 3,469 billion RMB, down 1,466 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased by 1,097 billion RMB, up 1,594 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate long-term loans decreased by 2,800 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased significantly by 3,100 billion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate was 9.0%, up from 8.5% in the previous month, while M1 growth rate rose to 4.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[5] - In January, RMB deposits increased by 80,900 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37,700 billion RMB, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions[5] Market Dynamics and Implications - The government bond net financing in January was 9,764 billion RMB, up 2,831 billion RMB year-on-year, serving as a core support for social financing[3] - The active stock market has contributed to the increase in M2 growth, indicating a potential shift in capital flows towards equity investments[11] Economic Outlook - The weak "opening red" effect of credit growth suggests that the anticipated recovery in the real estate market may not meet expectations[16] - The demand for medium- to long-term loans remains weak, indicating ongoing concerns about economic recovery and internal demand[10]

Core Insights - January financial data indicates a strong start to the year, with M2 growth reaching 9%, the highest in nearly two years, and social financing scale increasing significantly [1][2] Group 1: Monetary and Financing Data - As of the end of January, M2 balance was 347.19 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month and a 2.0 percentage point increase from the same period last year [2] - Social financing scale reached 449.11 trillion yuan, with an 8.2% year-on-year growth, and a record monthly increase of 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1,662 billion yuan more than the same month last year [2][4] - Government bond financing accounted for 13.5% of the total social financing increase, the highest level for the same period since 2021, indicating strong government support for financing [2] Group 2: Credit Growth and Demand - The total RMB loan balance reached 276.62 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, and an increase of 4.71 trillion yuan in January [4][5] - Significant project launches and early investments have driven project loans, with corporate loans increasing by 4.45 trillion yuan in January, including 3.18 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term loans [6] - Consumer loan growth was supported by pre-holiday spending, with government policies enhancing consumer loan incentives [6] Group 3: Financing Costs and Structure - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down about 20 basis points from the previous year, while personal housing loans remained stable at 3.1% [7] - The financing cost remains low, reflecting a relatively abundant credit supply and the effectiveness of financial support to the real economy [7] - The structure of credit is improving, with significant growth in loans to high-quality development sectors, including a 11.6% increase in inclusive small and micro loans [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The January social financing data indicates a stable start to the year, with a total increase of 7.22 trillion yuan, surpassing market expectations and showing a year-on-year increase of 1654 billion yuan. However, the growth rate of social financing stock has slightly decreased to 8.2% [1][5][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In January, social financing increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market average expectation of 6.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1654 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock is 8.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][5][6]. Entity Loans - Entity loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 3194 billion yuan. This is attributed to several factors, including a high base from the previous year and a balanced credit supply-demand environment [2][7][9]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bonds increased by 9764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2831 billion yuan, indicating a proactive fiscal approach. Corporate bonds saw an increase of 5033 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 579 billion yuan [3][9][10]. Bank Acceptance Bills - Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 6293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1639 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in the scale of bills discounted to banks [3][9]. Monetary Supply - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by cross-border capital flows and improved risk appetite among micro-entities. M2 increased by 9%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, supported by factors such as interbank investment expansion [4][10]. Overall Assessment - Overall, the January credit and social financing data shows a stable start. Despite the lack of significant recovery in medium to long-term loans indicating weak entity investment activities, improvements in non-entity activities have enhanced liquidity in the real sector, contributing to the rebound in M1 and M2 growth rates [4][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

中国1月CPI、PPI数据将公布；1月金融数据或将公布；2025年第四季度恒生指数系列检讨结果将发布。 1月CPI、PPI数据将公布 2月11日，国家统计局将公布1月CPI、PPI数据。 财通证券预计1月CPI同比增速为0.4%。1月猪肉价格小幅上行，鲜菜价格回落，鲜果价格上行，金价大幅上升，但高基数下，预计1月CPI同比增速小幅下行 至0.4%。 PPI方面，财通证券预计1月PPI同比增速为-1.5%。1月出厂价格指数上升1.7个百分点至50.6%，主要原材料购进价格指数上升3个百分点至56.1%。 从解禁市值来看，2月9日是解禁高峰期，12家公司解禁市值合计307.41亿元，占下周解禁规模的84.71%。按2月6日收盘价计算，解禁市值居前三位的是：湖 南裕能（240.96亿元）、甘肃能化（40.08亿元）、麦澜德（27.44亿元）。从个股的解禁量看，解禁股数居前三位的是：甘肃能化（16.23亿股）、湖南裕能 （3.74亿股）、青松建化（2.26亿股）。 | | | 下周解禁个股 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 个股代码 | 公司简称 | 解禁 ...