1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. TACO trading has heated up again, influenced by the Middle - East situation. The LPR remains unchanged, while the reduced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and increased global trade uncertainty add uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. In the short term, the policy signals at the end of the month should be monitored [4]. - The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market. The decline in credit growth and insufficient household financing demand indicate that the restoration of the economy's internal driving force still takes time, and bond yields are still driven downward. However, the impact of rising inflation expectations on short - term sentiment should be noted [3]. - The front - loaded fiscal policy and government bond supply suppress the short - term sentiment of the bond market, but the central bank's liquidity support and potential subsequent overall easing will provide bottom support for the bond market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [10]. - Monthly economic indicators: The scale of social financing is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year remains at 9.00%; the manufacturing PMI is 50.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points and a growth rate of 2.86% [11]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 and a decline rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.8871, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.026 and a decline rate of 0.38%; SHIBOR for 7 days is 1.44, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.41%; DR007 is 1.42, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.44%; R007 is 1.55, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.44, down 0.02 with a decline rate of 1.23%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.23% [12]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 31, 2026, are 102.54 yuan, 106.11 yuan, 108.40 yuan, and 111.69 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.082 yuan, 0.050 yuan, 0.031 yuan, and 0.065 yuan respectively [4]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 31, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 3.25 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [3]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.277%, 1.438%, 1.469%, and 1.495% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [3]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread of treasury bond futures, the spread between the current bond term and the futures cross - variety (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.) [8]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [45][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [5].

Macro Economic Group - In February, M2 growth remained at 9% year-on-year, while M1 increased to 5.9% from 4.9% in January, indicating an improvement in the speed of money circulation [4] - The total social financing (TSF) in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, a decrease from 7.22 trillion yuan in January, but an increase of 146.1 billion yuan compared to the same month last year [4] - Bank credit increased by 900 billion yuan in February, down from 4.71 trillion yuan in January, with a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, indicating weak demand for household credit but a notable improvement in corporate credit [4][5] Industry Comprehensive Group - China officially joined the global "Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration," aiming to triple global nuclear power capacity by 2050, which is expected to accelerate domestic nuclear power construction and enhance the related industry chain's outlook [8] - Chip Microelectronics reported a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, a 47.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 289.93 million yuan, up 80.4%, indicating significant progress in meeting the needs of major PCB manufacturers [9] Consumer Group - Starting March 15, Apple reduced its App Store standard commission from 30% to 25%, which is expected to benefit game and high in-app purchase application developers by lowering distribution costs and potentially increasing profits [11] - On Running (昂跑) reported a revenue of 3.014 billion Swiss francs for FY2025, a 30% increase, while net profit decreased by 15.9%, reflecting a focus on revenue growth and brand expansion rather than short-term profit [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing was +8.2%, with the growth rate remaining basically flat month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 were 5.9% and 9.0% respectively, with the growth rate of M1 increasing by 1.0 percentage point month-on-month and that of M2 remaining basically flat. The new credit in February was about 0.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 trillion yuan. The credit structure was optimized overall, with corporate medium- and long-term loans performing well, while household credit remained weak and bill financing impulse weakened. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the net issuance scale of government bonds in February was low, with the increment of government bonds about 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.29 trillion yuan. In terms of deposits, household deposits increased year-on-year, indicating that the current risk preference of households has not been systematically improved and the savings willingness is still strong. The pressure of "deposit outflow" from banks may be weaker than market concerns [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit - The credit increment decreased year-on-year, but the credit structure was optimized overall. In February 2026, the new credit was about 0.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 trillion yuan. Corporate medium- and long-term loans increased year-on-year, with the corporate loan increment in February about 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.45 trillion yuan. Among them, short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans increased by 0.27 trillion yuan and 0.35 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year. The increase in medium- and long-term loans reflects the good quality of corporate credit. The increment of bill financing in February was -350 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.2 trillion yuan, indicating that banks' "impulse" demand has weakened and they pay more attention to the optimization of the credit income structure. However, household credit remained weak, with household loans decreasing by about 0.65 trillion yuan in February, a year-on-year decrease of 0.26 trillion yuan. Among them, short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans decreased by 0.20 trillion yuan and 0.07 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year. Looking forward, the "inflection point" of the year-on-year increase in credit increment this year may mainly depend on the driving effect of consumption subsidy policies on household credit and the specific implementation schedule of the 800 billion yuan new policy-based financial instruments, which may not significantly drive the annual credit increment, but will have a certain impact on the credit growth rhythm [10]. Social Financing - Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the increment of government bonds decreased year-on-year. In February 2026, the increment of social financing was about 2.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.15 trillion yuan. In terms of sub-items other than credit, the new off-balance-sheet financing in February decreased less year-on-year by 0.19 trillion yuan, and the new direct financing increased year-on-year by about 1.97 billion yuan. In addition, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the net issuance scale of government bonds in February was low, with the increment of government bonds about 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.29 trillion yuan [10]. Money - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 rebounded, and the growth rate gap between M2 and M1 continued to narrow. In February 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 continued to rebound. On the one hand, the entire Spring Festival holiday was in February this year, and the holiday was relatively long, which expanded the consumption scenarios and willingness of households during the holiday. On the other hand, the RMB was still in an appreciation channel in February as a whole, and the increase in enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange promoted the increase in RMB deposits. Analyzing the specific deposit data in February: 1) Household deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.50 trillion yuan; enterprise deposits decreased by 2.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.76 trillion yuan. Part of this was affected by the payment of salaries by enterprises before the Spring Festival, which led to the transfer of enterprise deposits to household deposits. At the same time, the relatively fast return of household deposits after the Spring Festival also reflects that the current risk preference of households has not been systematically improved and the savings willingness is still strong. The pressure of "deposit outflow" from banks may be weaker than market concerns. 2) Fiscal deposits decreased by 0.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.61 trillion yuan. The fiscal expenditure intensity in February was significantly higher, which also provided certain support for the liquidity of the bond market. 3) Non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44 trillion yuan less. The adjustment of the equity market in February this year had a certain impact on the growth of non-bank deposits [10]. Outlook for Financial Data and the Bond Market - Overall, in the financial data of February, corporate credit showed a certain degree of prosperity, but household credit remained weak. The issuance of government bonds at the beginning of the year has not increased yet, and at the same time, deposit growth is good. Overall, it is relatively friendly to the bond market. Recently, the market is concerned that the self-discipline requirements for interbank deposits may be further tightened, and the bank's liability cost may decline accordingly, which is also beneficial to the bond market. However, looking forward from mid-March, it is still necessary to note that, first, the rhythm of credit issuance this year may be significantly affected by policies, that is, pay attention to when consumption subsidies and new policy-based financial instruments will be implemented to drive credit; second, if the issuance of government bonds accelerates in the second quarter, it may bring certain supply pressure to the bond market; third, how the recent corporate foreign exchange settlement behavior responds to the phased pressure on the RMB exchange rate, which will affect the subsequent performance of the M1 growth rate [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the evaluation of price transmission smoothness from a financial data perspective, focusing on the distribution of deposits among enterprises, non-bank institutions, and households [3][12] - For enterprises, two indicators are crucial: the change in current deposits during periods of rising PPI and the simultaneous changes in enterprise deposits and loans. A rise in current deposits alongside PPI indicates smooth price transmission, while a decline suggests increased production costs [3][4][18] - For households, rising living costs may lead to increased current deposits as a precaution against expenses. If CPI rises alongside household current deposits, it indicates a clear cost shock; conversely, if current deposits decline, it suggests that price increases do not deter consumption [4][19][22] Group 2 - Financial data indicates an improving trend in the real economy, with the enterprise-resident deposit differential reaching its highest value since December 2022, suggesting ongoing recovery [6][23] - The financial market's transaction volume is expected to remain high, with non-bank resident deposit differentials also increasing, indicating robust market activity [6][25] - M2 growth is primarily driven by adjustments in the bank's liability structure rather than asset expansion, with expectations of a decline in M2 growth in 2026 compared to 2025 due to reduced short-term loan pressures and stable government bond issuance [7][31][32] Group 3 - The impact on capital markets suggests that if price transmission continues, the likelihood of significant valuation increases in 2026 is low, with a focus on fundamental performance in the equity market [8] - The bond market outlook indicates that as expectations for the real economy improve, the likelihood of unconventional monetary easing by the central bank decreases, making the bottom of bond yields clearer than the top [8]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In February, the new social financing scale reached 23,792 billion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 18,405 billion yuan, and increased by 1,461 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - New loans from financial institutions amounted to 9,000 billion yuan, better than the expected 8,416 billion yuan, but decreased by 1,100 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - M1 growth rate increased to 5.9% year-on-year, while M2 growth rate remained stable at 9.0%[1] Group 2: Key Drivers of Social Financing - The increase in social financing was primarily supported by government bonds, with new government bond issuance in February reaching 1.42 trillion yuan, a marginal decline year-on-year[2] - New credit under social financing was 8,484 billion yuan, an improvement from 6,528 billion yuan in the same month last year[2] - Other financing channels for enterprises saw new trust loans, equity financing, and off-balance-sheet notes increase by 639 billion yuan, 378 billion yuan, and 1,232 billion yuan respectively[2] Group 3: Loan Structure and Trends - New loans showed a total increase, but the structure was unbalanced, with household loans decreasing by 6,507 billion yuan, down 2,616 billion yuan year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans were the main support for new loans, totaling 14,900 billion yuan, an increase of 4,500 billion yuan year-on-year[5] - The decline in non-bank loans and on-balance-sheet notes indicates banks are focusing more on "effective lending"[3] Group 4: Deposit Trends - New deposits in February were only 11,700 billion yuan, a significant drop from 80,900 billion yuan in January, reflecting strong cash withdrawal demand during the Spring Festival[6] - Total new deposits for January and February combined reached 92,600 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5,200 billion yuan, nearly matching the historical high of 96,800 billion yuan in 2023[6] Group 5: Monetary Indicators - M1 growth exceeded expectations, rising from 4.9% to 5.9%, significantly above the market forecast of 4.7%[8] - The overall credit volume is moderate, with a trend towards improved quality, as evidenced by the continuous negative growth in on-balance-sheet notes and the increase in corporate short-term loans[9]

Group 1: Financial Growth Metrics - Social financing stock increased by 8.2% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[3] - Loan stock grew by 6.0% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from last month[3] - M1 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, up by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[3] - M2 grew by 9% year-on-year, unchanged from last month[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - In February 2026, RMB loans increased by 195.6 billion yuan year-on-year, while foreign currency loans decreased by 24.6 billion yuan[3] - Off-balance-sheet financing increased by 191.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with net financing from domestic stocks increasing by 37.8 billion yuan[3] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 270 billion yuan year-on-year, and corporate medium- to long-term loans increased by 350 billion yuan[3] Group 3: Government and Policy Impact - Government bond financing contributed 3.31 percentage points to social financing growth, down by 0.09 percentage points from last month[3] - The issuance of government bonds reached 2.38 trillion yuan in January-February, close to last year's levels, indicating sustained fiscal support for the economy[3] - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments to attract more social capital for investment[3] Group 4: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down by about 20 basis points year-on-year[3] - The personal housing loan interest rate was also around 3.1%, lower by about 10 basis points compared to the previous year[3] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[2]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In February, the total social financing (社融) increased by 2.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan, slightly better than last year[8] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.2%, while M2 growth remained at 9.0%[8] - M1 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from the previous value[8] Group 2: Corporate and Household Loans - Corporate loans showed positive signals with a year-on-year increase of 4.15 trillion yuan in February, while household loans decreased by 650.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 261.6 billion yuan[14][16] - Medium and long-term corporate loans turned to a year-on-year increase, supported by policy effects, with an increase of 3.5 trillion yuan[14] - Short-term loans for enterprises have maintained a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months, indicating a relatively active corporate financing environment[14] Group 3: Household Deposits and Spending - Household deposits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 2.5 trillion yuan in February, while corporate deposits decreased by 1.8 trillion yuan[22] - The mismatch of the Spring Festival led to a substantial increase in household deposits, while corporate deposits were negatively impacted by wage payments[22] - The real estate market remains sluggish, contributing to the high willingness of households to repay existing loans early[18] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in incremental policies, capital market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainties[27] - The overall financial data for February aligns with market expectations, but the sustainability of corporate loan growth remains to be observed[26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial statistics released by the central bank for February 2026, highlighting the trends in loans, social financing, and monetary aggregates, indicating a mixed outlook for credit growth and economic recovery. Group 1: Loan Growth - In February, new RMB loans amounted to 900 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion, with a month-end growth rate of 6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of January [4] - The total new loans for January and February combined reached 5.6 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 530 billion, indicating a moderation in credit intensity at the start of the year [4] - The monthly loan issuance rhythm is expected to be smoother throughout the year, with reduced volatility compared to the same period last year [4] Group 2: Corporate Loans - New corporate loans in February totaled 1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 450 billion, continuing to act as a stabilizing force for loan growth [5] - The breakdown of new loans shows a decrease of 350 billion in bills, an increase of 600 billion in short-term loans, and an increase of 890 billion in medium to long-term loans, with medium to long-term loans accounting for 60% of new loans, up from 52% in the previous year [5] Group 3: Household Loans - In February, household loans decreased by 650.7 billion, a year-on-year reduction of 261.6 billion, indicating significant pressure on household credit [6] - The decline in household short-term and medium to long-term loans was 469.3 billion and 181.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year reductions of 1.95 billion and 665 million [6] Group 4: Social Financing - New social financing in February reached 2.4 trillion, with a month-end growth rate of 8.2%, remaining stable compared to the end of January [8] - The growth rate of social financing shows resilience, with the gap between social financing and loan growth remaining high [8] Group 5: Monetary Aggregates - M2 growth in February was 9%, consistent with the end of January, while M1 grew by 5.9%, an increase of 1 percentage point from January [7] - New RMB deposits in February amounted to 1.17 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.25 trillion, with cumulative deposits for January and February growing by 9.26 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 520 billion [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates an improvement in the rhythm of medium to long-term loans for enterprises, with continued activation of deposits [1] - Financial data for January and February reflects stable total credit volume and structural optimization, with a recovery trend in corporate medium to long-term loans [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Deposit Growth - In February, new RMB deposits amounted to 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease compared to 4.42 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025. The structure shows that resident deposits increased by 2.50 trillion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits decreased by 1.76 trillion yuan [5] - The overall deposit growth remained rapid in January and February, despite a seasonal decline after a significant increase in January [5] Social Financing - In February, new social financing amounted to 2.38 trillion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.2%, remaining stable month-on-month. The structure includes an increase in RMB loans and a decrease in direct financing [6] RMB Loans - In February, new RMB loans totaled 900 billion yuan, reflecting weak credit demand primarily due to the Spring Festival holiday. However, medium to long-term loans increased significantly, indicating a recovery in corporate lending [7] - Corporate medium to long-term loans showed a recovery trend, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5 trillion yuan [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality regional banks that may benefit from a simultaneous increase in credit volume and pricing. Recommended banks include Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Bank [8] - In the medium to long term, large comprehensive banks and specialized wealth management banks are expected to benefit from the trend of deposit wealthization, with recommendations for CITIC Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank [8]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In February, the total social financing (社融) growth rate remained stable at 8.2%, with new social financing of 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.1 billion yuan year-on-year[8] - Government bond financing in February decreased by 290.3 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the drag on social financing performance[8] - New corporate loans in February amounted to 1.49 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 450 billion yuan[13] Group 2: Household Sector - In February, household loans decreased by 650.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 2.5 trillion yuan[14] - The trend of "deleveraging" among households continues, indicating low willingness to increase leverage for consumption and housing[14] - Cumulatively, household deposits decreased by approximately 890 billion yuan in January-February, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.12 trillion yuan[23] Group 3: Monetary Indicators - M2 growth remained at a relatively high level of 9.0% year-on-year, while M1 rose to 5.9%[21] - Fiscal deposits decreased by 350 billion yuan in February, reflecting rapid fiscal spending and strong corporate foreign exchange settlement intentions[21] - The first quarter of 2026 is critical as approximately 77 trillion yuan of household fixed deposits are set to mature, with 45% maturing in this quarter[23]