每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 相关机构表示，供给方面，钢铁产能产量退出预期提升。基本面上，随着钢厂盈利改善，生产动力 增强，近期铁水维持高位运行，目前供给减量偏弱。9月22日《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》公开，明确提到要继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原 则落实年度产量调控任务，促进供需动态平衡，为钢铁行业限产提出了较为实质性的目标。 预计行业将加速进入优胜劣汰阶段。相关部门将推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，将全面开展钢铁企业 分类评价，按照引领型规范企业、规范企业、不符合规范条件企业实施三级管理，引导资源要素向优势 企业集聚。预计2026年相关政策将逐步落地，落后产能逐步退出。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），一键布局"钢铁板材+特钢+金属制品"。该 指数从沪深市场中选 ...

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry has seen a recovery in profitability compared to last year, with total profits of 46 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, still at historical lows, indicating a need for further improvement in profitability [1][2][5] - The PB valuation of the steel sector is slightly above 1x, but given the industry's profit recovery and the elasticity at the bottom of the cycle, the current valuation remains attractive and has investment value [1][2][10] - The holding ratio in the steel sector has decreased further, indicating low market attention and that the industry is still in a bottom cycle, with trading not being crowded [1][2][10] Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Cycle**: The steel industry's profits have improved in the first half of 2025 but remain historically low, only slightly better than 2015 levels, with total profits around 46 billion yuan [2][5] - **Valuation Levels**: Despite the rise in the steel sector this year, the PB valuation is still considered undervalued, with the potential for profit recovery and elasticity from the bottom cycle [2][10] - **Supply and Demand**: Improvements in supply and demand are primarily driven by production cuts and mid-term capacity clearance, with marginal improvements noted from Q3 last year to Q2 this year [2][3][16] - **Short-term Catalysts**: Supply-side reforms under the anti-involution strategy, including production cuts and increased infrastructure work, are expected to positively impact the industry [1][2][3] Future Outlook - The decision-makers aim to enhance the industry's profit center through short-term production control and mid-term capacity clearance, expecting good performance in the steel industry over the next three years [3][19] - The demand for construction steel is expected to remain flat or slightly decrease for the year, while manufacturing steel demand is strong but may face export pressures in the second half [1][15][16] Recommended Stocks - **Hualing Steel**: Lowest PB valuation among quality companies, with continuous shareholder returns expected [4] - **Shougang**: High fixed costs due to relocation, but has significant potential in automotive and silicon steel if the industry recovers [4] - **Baosteel**: Currently undervalued but will benefit significantly from industry recovery [4] - **Fangda Special Steel**: Currently at historical low PB valuation, with potential for growth if production adjustments are made [4] Government Measures - The government emphasizes anti-involution policies to improve the steel industry's situation, with a focus on reducing production to maintain overall profitability [7][19] - The implementation of production reduction policies has been slow, facing challenges particularly with small steel mills [18] Current Production and Supply Situation - The steel industry is experiencing overproduction due to fixed cost absorption strategies, leading to a competitive environment [6] - The overall inventory level is low, with a year-on-year decrease of about 30%, which is favorable for price increases [20][21] Conclusion - The steel industry is currently at a cyclical bottom with significant potential for upward movement. Quality stocks that enhance product value or have strong profit elasticity are recommended for investment [24][25][27]