Group 1: Energy and Industrial Production - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of March 26, with a cumulative increase of 1.3% for the year[3] - The operating rate of national blast furnaces recorded 79.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points[3] - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises was 2.019 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%[5] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction resumption rate of 10,692 sites nationwide was 62%, a month-on-month increase of 19.5 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.62 percentage points[5] - The average cement dispatch rate was 24.4%, a month-on-month increase of 4.9 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%[6] Group 3: Consumer Market Trends - The average daily transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a 28.0% decline in February[8] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from March 1 to 22 decreased by 16.0% year-on-year, an improvement from a 25.4% decline in the previous month[10] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Economic Indicators - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) recorded 137.9 points, a month-on-month increase of 7.1 percentage points[6] - The average daily number of domestic flights was 13,400, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%[8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for rebar and hot-rolled coil are both "wide-range fluctuations" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil, showing the current market situation and price trends of these two commodities [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,145 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%); for HC2605, it was 3,324 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.21%). The trading volume of RB2605 was 618,964 lots, with a position of 1,263,489 lots, a decrease of 87,899 lots; for HC2605, the trading volume was 253,950 lots, the position was 1,024,272 lots, a decrease of 31,099 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,240, 3,280, 3,170, and 3,450 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged compared to the previous day. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,300, 3,330, 3,240, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged and Tianjin up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 was 95 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2605 was -24 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The spreads such as RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610, etc. also showed different changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Enterprise Inventory and Production**: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.81 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 470,000 tons (2.7%). The production of key steel enterprises in early March included 20.11 million tons of crude steel (average daily output of 2.011 million tons, a daily decrease of 0.8%), 18.21 million tons of pig iron (average daily output of 1.821 million tons, a daily decrease of 4.0%), and 18.45 million tons of steel (average daily output of 1.845 million tons, a daily decrease of 12.6%). The national daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel also decreased to varying degrees [2][3] - **National Steel Production**: From January to February, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 160.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; pig iron was 137.7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%; steel was 221.19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3] - **Weekly Data**: On March 19, the output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 188,500 tons. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 47,600 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 103,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 286,600 tons. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 312,800 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 155,000 tons, and the total increased by 704,000 tons [3] - **Real Estate and Investment Data**: From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The national fixed asset investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year [3] - **Steel Import and Export Data**: In February 2026, China imported 369,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 90,000 tons (19.6%); imported 97.638 million tons of iron ore, a month-on-month decrease of 14.747 million tons (13.1%); exported 783,700 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 83,000 tons (1.1%) [3] - **Price Index Data**: In February 2026, the national consumer price index increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month [3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The coal production in China is expected to increase only slightly in 2026, with an estimated rise of 20-30 million tons to 3.85 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 0.6% [16]. - Coal imports in January-February 2026 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, totaling 77.22 million tons, indicating stable demand [20][21]. - The electricity generation from thermal power plants saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in January-February 2026, reversing a previous decline [24]. - The crude steel production in the same period decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, totaling 16.034 million tons, highlighting a contraction in the steel sector [34]. Summary by Sections Production - In January-February 2026, the raw coal production decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with a total output of 760 million tons [16]. - The daily average production was 12.93 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 13.64% [16]. Imports - The coal import volume for January-February 2026 was 77.22 million tons, marking a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year [20]. - The report anticipates that coal imports will remain stable, with significant attention on potential fluctuations from major exporting countries like the USA and Indonesia [21][23]. Demand - The total industrial electricity generation in January-February 2026 was 1,571.8 billion kWh, showing a 4.1% year-on-year increase [24]. - The thermal power generation specifically increased by 3.3%, contrasting with a decline of 3.2% in December 2025 [24]. - The report notes a decrease in nuclear, wind, and solar power generation growth rates, indicating a shift in energy production dynamics [24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the core of the current trading cycle is influenced by overseas market dynamics, particularly the potential for "black swan" events that could lead to significant price increases in coal [4]. - It outlines three phases of expected overseas coal price increases, starting with production cuts in Indonesia, followed by increased demand due to geopolitical tensions, and potential supply constraints from diesel shortages in coal-producing countries [5][39]. - Key companies to watch include China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia, as well as domestic firms with significant coal chemical operations [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The coal production in China is expected to increase only slightly in 2026, with an estimated rise of 20-30 million tons to 3.85 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 0.6% [16]. - Coal imports in January-February 2026 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, totaling 77.22 million tons, indicating stable demand [20][21]. - The electricity generation from thermal power plants saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in January-February 2026, reversing a previous decline [24]. - The crude steel production in the same period decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, totaling 16.034 million tons, highlighting a contraction in the steel sector [34]. Summary by Sections Production - In January-February 2026, the raw coal production decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with a total output of 760 million tons [16]. - The daily average production was 12.93 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 13.64% [16]. Imports - The coal import volume for January-February 2026 was 77.22 million tons, marking a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year [20]. - The report anticipates that coal imports will remain stable, with significant attention on potential fluctuations from major exporting countries like the USA and Indonesia [21][23]. Demand - The total industrial electricity generation in January-February 2026 was 1,571.8 billion kWh, showing a 4.1% year-on-year increase [24]. - The thermal power generation specifically increased by 3.3%, contrasting with a decline of 3.2% in December 2025 [24]. - The report notes a decrease in crude steel production, which may impact coal demand from the steel industry [34]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the core of the current trading cycle is influenced by overseas market dynamics, particularly the potential for "black swan" events that could lead to significant price increases in coal [4]. - It outlines three phases of expected overseas coal price increases, starting with production cuts in Indonesia, followed by increased demand due to geopolitical tensions, and finally, potential supply reductions from other coal-producing countries due to diesel shortages [5][39]. - Key companies to watch include those with overseas operations, such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia [43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the coming months [10]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in crude steel production, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% in January-February 2026, while daily crude steel production increased by 23.6% compared to December 2025 [5]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China for January-February 2026 was 20,643 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [1]. - The net export of steel decreased by 7.3% year-on-year to 14.76 million tons in January-February 2026, but external demand remains resilient, supported by strong exports in manufacturing sectors like automotive and home appliances [2]. - The report highlights that the economic transition in China is expected to stabilize, with fixed asset investment growing by 1.8% year-on-year and retail sales increasing by 2.8% [1]. Summary by Sections Steel Production and Consumption - Crude steel production in January-February 2026 was 16,034 million tons, with a daily average of 2.718 million tons, marking a significant increase from December 2025 [5]. - The production of pig iron was 13,770 million tons, down 2.7% year-on-year, while steel production totaled 22,119 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year [5]. Trade and Export Dynamics - The total value of China's goods trade in January-February 2026 reached 7.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, with exports growing by 19.2% [2]. - Trade with ASEAN and the EU showed strong growth, while trade with the US declined by 16.9% [2]. Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the economic growth in China is transitioning from investment-driven to consumption-driven, with a stable economic environment expected [1]. - The government is focusing on structural adjustments during this transition period, with a net financing of 828.9 billion yuan in national bonds and 1.77 trillion yuan in local bonds in the first two months of 2026 [1]. Key Investment Targets - Recommended stocks include Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in steel demand and favorable market conditions [8].

Supply and Demand Improvement - The supply-demand imbalance is improving, with industrial output growth at 6.3% in January-February, while demand growth (investment, retail sales, and exports) is at 6.6%[3] - In 2025, industrial output growth is projected at 5.9%, while combined growth for investment, retail sales, and exports is expected to be only 1.3%, indicating a significant demand-supply divergence[3] Structural Analysis - The supply-demand contradiction in the midstream manufacturing sector is easing, with a rolling annual demand growth of 9.6% in January-February, up from 8.4% previously[3] - Investment in the midstream sector (excluding instruments) shows a rolling annual decline of -1.8%, worsening from -1.5%[3] Production and Sales Rates - The production-sales rate for industrial enterprises is projected to be -0.1% for 2023, worsening to -0.5% in 2024, and slightly improving to -0.4% in 2025[3] - In January-February 2026, the production-sales rate dropped to -0.1%[3] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decline is narrowing, with a month-on-month increase of 0.42% in January and 0.39% in February, indicating strong performance beyond just bulk commodities[4] Economic Data Overview - In January-February, industrial value-added growth was 6.3%, while retail sales growth was 2.8%, up from 0.9% in December[6] - Export growth reached 21.8% in January-February, compared to 6.6% in December[6] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year in January-February, an improvement from a 15.6% decline in December[6] - Real estate investment growth was -11.1% in January-February, significantly better than the -35.8% in December[6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 1.8% in January-February, with infrastructure investment growing at 11.4%[6] - Large project investments (over 100 million yuan) increased by 5.0%, contributing to a 2.7% overall investment growth[6]

Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand imbalance is showing signs of improvement, with demand growth outpacing supply growth in early 2026, indicating a potential recovery in midstream profitability [2][4][12]. Group 1: Observations on Supply-Demand Imbalance - Overall, the supply-demand imbalance is improving, with industrial output growth at 6.3% in January-February 2026, while combined demand growth from fixed investment, retail sales, and exports reached 6.6% [4][13]. - In terms of structure, the midstream manufacturing supply-demand contradiction is easing, with a rolling one-year demand growth rate of 9.6% in January-February 2026, up from 8.4% previously [4][14]. - The production-sales ratio is narrowing its decline, with a year-on-year drop of -0.1% in 2023, expected to expand to -0.5% in 2024, and slightly narrow to -0.4% in 2025 [5][17]. - Price levels are recovering beyond just bulk commodities, with PPI declines narrowing and midstream equipment manufacturing showing strong month-on-month growth [5][20]. Group 2: Economic Data Analysis for January-February - Industrial output growth is strong, with equipment manufacturing growth at 9.3%, significantly contributing to overall industrial growth [6][36]. - Real estate sales and investment declines are narrowing, with sales area down -13.5% year-on-year in January-February 2026, compared to -15.6% in December 2025 [6][30]. - Retail sales growth is recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in January-February 2026, up from 0.9% in December 2025 [7][27]. - Fixed asset investment growth is rebounding, with a total investment in projects of over 100 million yuan growing by 5.0% year-on-year in January-February 2026 [7][41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coal and coke fundamentals temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have high uncertainty, and the price fluctuations in the energy and chemical sector are intense, which have a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term attention should be paid to risk control and avoid chasing up [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Coal and Coke Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices rose and then fell, and showed a slight decline at night, with relatively intense overall fluctuations, and overseas geopolitical conflicts still had an impact [2] - On the spot side, the coke market remained stable, and coke enterprises had no plans to raise prices recently; the prices of coking coal in individual producing areas increased slightly [2] Production and Import Data - From January to February 2026, China's raw coal production was 760 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; the cumulative coke production was 8.255 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.8%; the cumulative pig iron production was 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the cumulative crude steel production was 16.034 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [2] - The production of coal mines has basically recovered. Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108,000 tons and 29,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level [2] - The daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal remained at a relatively high level. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume was 187,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase [2] - In the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [2] Demand Situation - This week, the molten iron output is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the procurement of raw materials by coking and steel enterprises has warmed up [2]

Economic Growth - Monthly GDP growth rate reached 5.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from December 2025, indicating sustained economic momentum[1] - Industrial production increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from December 2025, with high-tech manufacturing outperforming traditional industries[1] - Fixed asset investment rebounded to a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, shifting from negative to positive[1] Demand Recovery - Social retail sales grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with a record high in month-on-month growth over the past decade[1] - Exports surged by 19.2% year-on-year, significantly above last year's average growth rate, driven by global AI investment and rising commodity prices[1] - Consumer confidence remains fragile, as evidenced by weak household loan demand and a decline in service consumption growth compared to December 2025[2] Policy and Future Outlook - Government spending is expected to maintain significant momentum in March, supported by a relatively ample fiscal surplus and the rollout of 800 billion yuan in policy financial tools[2] - The urbanization rate for permanent residents reached 67.9%, but the registered urbanization rate remains below 50%, highlighting the need for improved public services for migrant workers[2] - Risks include potential weakening of policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[2]

Economic Performance - In January-February 2026, exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than December 2025's 6.6% and the annual value of 5.5%[2] - Industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year, surpassing December 2025's 5.2% and the annual value of 5.9%[2] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to December 2025's -16% and the annual value of -3.8%[3] Sectoral Insights - High-tech industry added value increased by 13.1% year-on-year, up from 9.4% in the previous year[4] - Cement production turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, compared to -6.9% last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year-on-year, but were lower than the annual growth of 3.7%[5] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, an improvement from December 2025's -15.5%[7] - Real estate investment fell by 11.1% year-on-year, better than the previous year's -17.2%[9] - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.4% year-on-year, contrasting with last year's -1.5%[7] Employment and Consumer Behavior - Urban unemployment rate in February 2026 was 5.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year[9] - Consumer retail growth excluding automobiles and fuel was 4.7%, higher than last year's 3.7%[5] - Notable retail growth in categories such as tobacco and alcohol (19.1%) and communication equipment (17.8%)[6]