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永安期货铁合金早报-20251009
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 00:38
供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:72%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:75%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差(元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/ ...
2025年1-8月中国粗钢产量为6.7亿吨 累计下降2.8%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-10-04 01:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in China's crude steel production, with a reported output of 0.8 million tons in August 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [1] - Cumulative crude steel production from January to August 2025 reached 6.7 million tons, showing a cumulative decline of 2.8% compared to the previous year [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a trend of decreasing production in the crude steel industry [1] Group 2 - The article references several listed companies in the steel industry, including Baosteel Co., Ansteel Co., and others, which may be impacted by the declining production trends [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is identified as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]
2025年9月钢铁PMI解读:钢铁行业供需两端承压运行 10月需求或回暖支撑价格回升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 02:10
Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand and production, with the PMI for September at 47.7%, indicating a continuous decrease for two months, and the traditional peak season characteristics are not evident [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Weak real estate investment and slowing infrastructure construction have contributed to a lackluster demand in the steel market, with the new orders index dropping to 45.2%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points [3][4]. - The production index for the steel industry fell to 45.7%, down 2.3 percentage points, indicating a continued slowdown in production activities [8][12]. - Despite a slight increase in average daily crude steel production in early September, overall production levels have decreased compared to the previous month [8][12]. Inventory and Pricing Trends - Finished product inventory pressure is rising, with the inventory index reaching 54%, marking a two-month expansion and the highest level in nine months [8][12]. - Raw material prices remain high, with the purchasing price index above 60% for three consecutive months, leading to increased cost pressures for steelmaking [12][14]. - Steel prices showed minor fluctuations, with the Shanghai rebar price index indicating a slight decrease compared to the previous month, compressing profit margins for steel mills [14][16]. Future Outlook - October is expected to see a rebound in steel demand due to the resumption of outdoor construction post-holidays and the easing of extreme weather impacts [16][17]. - Steel mills are anticipated to increase production in response to rising demand, with a business activity expectation index of 67.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the coming month [17].
中国冶金矿山企业协会:黑色金属矿采选业固定资产投资意愿和投资活跃度仍然较强
智通财经网· 2025-09-29 08:09
Steel Industry Production Situation - In August 2025, the production of pig iron in China reached 69.793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.4% [2] - The production of crude steel in August was 77.369 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% [2] - The production of steel products in August was 122.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2] National Iron Ore Production Situation - In August, the production of iron ore raw ore was 81.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [3] - Cumulative production of iron ore raw ore from January to August was 678.104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [3] - The production of iron concentrate in August was 23.003 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [3] Iron Ore Import Situation - In August, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [4] - The import value was 975.552 million USD, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4] - The average monthly price was 92.72 USD per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [4] Iron Ore Supply and Demand Situation - From January to August, the production of pig iron was 57.907 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [5] - The domestic iron ore raw ore production was 67.810 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [5] - The iron ore import volume was 80.162 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [5] - As of the end of August, the port inventory of imported iron ore was 13.763 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% [5] Investment Situation in Black Metal Mining Industry - From January to August, the fixed asset investment in the mining industry increased by 3.0%, with black metal mining investment increasing by 15.6%, exceeding the national mining industry growth by 12.6 percentage points [6] - The cumulative growth rate of private investment in the black metal mining sector was 19.0%, higher than the national average by 1.2 percentage points [6] - Investment willingness and activity in the black metal mining sector remain strong [6] Revenue and Profit Situation in Black Metal Mining Industry - From January to August, the total operating revenue of the mining industry was 3,372.77 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% [7] - The operating revenue of the black metal mining sector was 305.64 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [7] - The total profit of the mining industry was 566.11 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%, while the black metal mining sector's profit was 29.50 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% [7]
高频经济周报(2025.9.21-2025.9.27):人员流动回落,需求环比改善-20250927
Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]
焦煤国内平衡表上半年回顾&下半年如何看待钢焦互动?
2025-09-26 02:28
焦煤国内平衡表上半年回顾&下半年如何看待钢焦互动? 20250925 摘要 2024 年初至 2025 年 6 月,焦煤期货和现货价格均大幅下跌约 50%, 尽管期间有小幅反弹,但整体呈现下行趋势,主要受国内产量增长和中 美关税博弈影响。近期因国庆补库需求,价格再次小幅上涨。 2025 年 1-7 月,国内焦煤产量同比增长近 5%,但进口量同比减少,特 别是来自蒙古和美国的进口量下降,尽管通过增加从俄罗斯和澳大利亚 的进口部分对冲了减量。 2025 年 1-8 月,中国粗钢产量数据存在争议,但出口量同比增长显著, 主要转向非洲、中东和南美等新兴市场,抵消了对美国出口的减少。 2025 年上半年焦煤价格走弱,主要由于下游煤炭与钢铁互动环节中的 库存结构性问题,上游矿山库存增加,而下游独立焦企和钢企库存下降, 企业采取现用现采购模式。 6 月份以来焦煤价格上涨,主要原因是下游企业补库需求增加,导致矿 山端库存下滑,以及钢铁生产利润较好,但近期部分钢材品种利润有所 回落。 Q&A 2025 年上半年国内焦煤市场的整体走势如何? 2025 年上半年,国内焦煤市场经历了显著的价格波动。回顾 2024 年,由于 山西煤矿 ...
市场宏观氛围回暖 短期螺纹钢震荡偏强运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-25 06:09
Market Review - The rebar futures contract closed at 3164, up 0.22% after a narrow fluctuation on Wednesday night [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 25, the price of rebar from Zhongtian is 3260 yuan/ton, with an outflow of 48,000 tons yesterday, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to the same week last year [2] - Hangzhou's rebar inventory stands at 975,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same week last year [2] - On September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported rebar warehouse receipts at 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons from the previous trading day; factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 5,700 tons [2] - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel in mid-September, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous period [2] - Estimated national daily crude steel output for this period is 2.56 million tons, down 0.6%, while daily pig iron production is 2.29 million tons, up 0.7%, and daily steel output is 4.17 million tons, up 2.7% [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures notes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to impact trading post-National Day, with coal mine production halts and rising "anti-involution" expectations driving a rebound in coking coal [3] - The production of finished steel has slightly decreased, but supply remains relatively high, with a small increase in demand for five major steel products, leading to continued inventory pressure [3] - Real estate investment continues to decline, limiting total demand, which is expected to create a pattern of high demand early in the year and low demand later [3] - Hualian Futures observes a rapid recovery in blast furnace steel production, with average daily pig iron output at a yearly high, and a noticeable reduction in rebar supply due to production shifts [3] - Seasonal demand recovery is anticipated as traditional consumption peaks and pre-holiday stockpiling boosts demand, leading to a gradual slowdown in inventory accumulation [3] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to show improvement, with steel prices likely to continue a strong oscillation [3]
成材:关注周度基本面变化,钢价震荡运行-20250925
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 03:52
晨报 成材 成材:关注周度基本面变化 钢价震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格: 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 成 材:武秋婷 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 原材料: 冯艳成 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 有色金属:于梦雪 从业资格号:F03127144 投资咨询号:Z0020161 电话:021-20857653 成文时间: 2025 年 9 月 25 日 逻辑:工信部等多部门发布关于印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025 —2026 年)》的通知,方案提出,严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水 泥熟料、平板玻璃产能,新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。中钢协数据 显示,9 月中旬,重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2073 万吨,平均日产 207.3 万吨,环比下降 0.6%;钢材库存量 1529 万吨,环比上一旬减少 53 万吨, ...
世界钢铁协会:8月全球粗钢产量1.453亿吨 同比提高0.3%
人民财讯9月25日电,世界钢铁协会消息,2025年8月全球70个纳入世界钢铁协会统计国家/地区的粗钢 产量为1.453亿吨,同比提高0.3%。 ...
中钢协:9月中旬重点统计钢铁企业粗钢日产环比下降0.6%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 14:27
新华财经北京9月24日电中钢协发布2025年9月中旬重点企业钢铁产量旬报。2025年9月中旬,重点统计 钢铁企业共生产粗钢2073万吨,平均日产207.3万吨,日产环比下降0.6%;生铁1910万吨,平均日产 191.0万吨,日产环比增长0.7%;钢材2061万吨,平均日产206.1万吨,日产环比增长5.4%。 据此估算,本旬全国日产粗钢256万吨、环比下降0.6%(见图1),日产生铁229万吨、环比增长0.7%, 日产钢材417万吨、环比增长2.7%。 (文章来源:新华财经) ...