2025 年 11 月 22 日 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 地产季节性回升，港口吞吐量下行 高频经济周报 (2025.11.16-2025.11.22) 风险提示： 国内政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 工业生产：生产表现较弱。从上游来看，本期全国电厂样本区域用煤量周度环比下行 1.27%，石油沥青装置开工率周度环比下行 4.20pcts 至 24.80%，高炉开工率周度环比下 行 0.62cts 至 82.17%，粗钢产量周度环比上行 6.00%。从地产链来看，螺纹钢开工率周 度环比上行 1.31pcts 至 43.29%，浮法玻璃开工率环比下行 0.34pcts 至 74.96%，磨机运 转率周度环比下行 0.39pct ...

2025年10月，非洲粗钢产量为200万吨，同比提高0.8%；亚洲和大洋洲粗钢产量为1.024亿吨，同比下降8.2%；欧盟(27国)粗钢产量为1080万吨，同比 下降3.5%；其他欧洲国家粗钢产量为360万吨，同比提高3.8%；中东粗钢产量为540万吨，同比提高9.2%；北美粗钢产量为910万吨，同比提高4.7%； 俄罗斯和其他独联体国家+乌克兰粗钢产量为640万吨，同比下降5.1%；南美粗钢产量为370万吨，同比下降1.1%。 表1：各地区粗钢产量 | | 2025年10月 | 同比 | 2025年1-10月 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 自万吨 | (%) | 自万吨 | (%) | | 手册 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 19.3 | 3.8 | | 亚洲和大洋洲 | 102.4 | -8.2 | 1.119.0 | -2.2 | | 欧盟 (27国) | 10.8 | -3.5 | 105.7 | -3.4 | | 其他欧洲国家 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 35.3 | -3.2 | | 中东 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 46.1 | 2.8 | ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国粗钢行业市场运行态势及发展趋势分析报告》 上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,鞍钢股份（000898）,马钢股份（600808）,沙钢股份（002075）,首钢股 份（000959）,包钢股份（600010）,太钢不锈（000825）,华菱钢铁（000932）,河钢股份（000709）,八 一钢铁（600581） 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国粗钢产量为0.7亿吨，同比下降4.6%；2025年1-9月中国粗钢 累计产量为7.5亿吨，累计下降2.9%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 2020-2025年1-9月中国粗钢产量统计图 ...

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/ ...

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/ ...

中国式现代化，是14亿多人口的现代化，规模空前。依托超大规模市场，我国成为全球唯一拥有联合国 产业分类中全部工业门类的国家。一起来看我国完整产业链的"世界之最"。 △央视财经《经济信息联播》栏目11月18日视频 截至2024年，我国制造业增加值占全球比重接近30%，已连续15年保持全球制造业第一大国地位。 在全球500种主要工业产品中，我国有220多种产量位居第一。我国生产的粗钢、水泥、电解铝占据全球 产量50%以上。我国生产了全球80%以上的光伏组件和70%的风电装备。新能源汽车产量连续10年位居 全球第一。 超大规模市场优势，为我国产业发展注入持续而强大的支撑力。完善的产供链体系，确保了生产制造的 自主可控和快速响应。超大规模市场如何推动高科技产业聚链成势？ 一大早，一家位于苏州吴中区的服务机器人生产企业的物流中转场已是一派繁忙景象。十几辆满载零部 件的车辆排队进出，工人们操作叉车将货物从进货区快速转运至出货区。来自苏州本地一家扫地机器人 外壳前盖生产企业的运输员王远谋，正在登记送来的货品，作为当天的夜班运输员，这已经是他送到的 第五批货了。王远谋表示，现在效率比过去提高超50%。 我国造船业三大指标：造 ...

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's crude steel production reached 71.997 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative crude steel production totaled 817.874 million tons, down 3.9% compared to the same period last year [1] Provincial Production Data - In the first ten months of 2025, Hebei ranked first in crude steel production with 16.67859 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 9.83761 million tons, and Shandong with 5.80004 million tons [1][2] - The October 2025 provincial crude steel production rankings showed Hebei leading with 1.22379 million tons, followed by Jiangsu at 0.83857 million tons, and Liaoning at 0.55405 million tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's modernization is characterized by its unprecedented scale, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, and it has become the only country globally to possess all industrial categories as classified by the United Nations [1] Group 1: Industrial Production - China ranks first in the production of over 220 out of 500 major industrial products globally [3] - The country accounts for over 50% of the global production of crude steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum [3] - China produces over 80% of the world's photovoltaic components and 70% of wind power equipment [3] - The production of new energy vehicles has been the highest in the world for ten consecutive years [3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - By 2024, China's manufacturing value added will account for nearly 30% of the global total, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 15 consecutive years [4] Group 3: Shipbuilding Industry - China leads the world in three key shipbuilding metrics: completed shipbuilding volume, new orders, and hand-held orders, with a global market share exceeding 50% [6] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Communication - China possesses the largest and most complete renewable energy industry chain, with a total installed capacity for renewable energy generation reaching 2.16 billion kilowatts, accounting for over 40% of the global total [8] - The country has the largest information and communication network in the world, leading in the number of 5G base stations, mobile phone users, and fixed broadband network scale [8] Group 5: Smart Manufacturing - China has the highest number of "lighthouse factories," representing the pinnacle of smart manufacturing and digitalization, accounting for over 40% of the global total [10] - The installation of industrial robots in China accounts for over 50% of the global total [10]

Steel Production - In October 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% [1] - The pig iron production is expected to be 65.55 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year [1] - Steel production is anticipated to reach 118.64 million tons, reflecting a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year [1] - From January to October 2025, crude steel production totaled 81.787 million tons, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - Pig iron production for the same period was 71.137 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [1] - Steel production during this period increased by 4.7% year-on-year, totaling 121.759 million tons [1] Industrial Value Added - In October, the industrial value added for large-scale industries grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [5] - From January to October, the industrial value added increased by 6.1% year-on-year [5] Sector Performance - In October, the mining sector's value added grew by 4.5%, while manufacturing increased by 4.9%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector rose by 5.4% [6] - State-owned enterprises saw a value added increase of 6.7%, while private enterprises grew by 2.1% [6] Industry Breakdown - Among 41 major industries, 29 reported year-on-year growth in value added [6] - Notable growth sectors included coal mining (6.5%), chemical raw materials (7.1%), and automotive manufacturing (16.8%) [6] - Conversely, the beverage and refined tea manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 1.9% [6] Product Output - In October, 313 out of 623 industrial products saw year-on-year output growth [7] - Steel output was 11.864 million tons, down 0.9%, while cement production fell by 15.8% to 14.775 million tons [7] - Automotive production reached 3.279 million units, an increase of 11.2%, with new energy vehicles growing by 19.3% to 1.71 million units [7] - The total power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 7.9% [7]

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - Power generation growth rate has declined, with cumulative coal-fired power generation down 2.7% year-on-year as of November 6, compared to a 6.2% increase in October [1][6] - Industrial operating rates show mixed trends, with upstream steel and coking rates declining, while downstream weaving rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased [2][7] - As of the second week of November, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [7][8] Group 2: Steel Production and Construction Activity - Key steel mills reported a month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 1.4% decrease recorded as of November 10 [2][9] - The construction sector is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with the asphalt operating rate falling by 3.9 percentage points month-on-month as of November 12 [2][11] - Cement dispatch rates decreased to 33.4%, down 4.3 percentage points month-on-month as of November 7 [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - Passenger vehicle retail sales saw a significant year-on-year decline of 19% from November 1 to 9, with wholesale sales down 22% [4][18] - Real estate sales are weak, with a 38.4% year-on-year drop in average daily transactions for commercial housing in 30 major cities from November 1 to 16 [3][15] - Home appliance sales continue to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant drops [4][19][20] Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - Port container throughput remained stable year-on-year, with a 6.5% increase from November 3 to 9, similar to October's growth [4][21] - Data on container shipments to the U.S. showed a significant decline, with the number of ships and tonnage down 26.8% and 30.2% respectively as of November 13 [4][21] Group 5: Price Trends and Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) has continued to rise, with energy and non-food prices showing upward trends [5][24][25] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate price has significantly increased due to rising energy storage demand, reflecting a broader trend in the new manufacturing sector [5][26] - Consumer price indices for non-food items have shown fluctuations, with some categories experiencing price increases [5][27]