注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 钢铁行业改善预期获关注，全市场唯一钢铁ETF（515210）盘中涨近1%，昨日净流入超2.6亿元。 银河证券指出，2025年前三季度钢铁行业效益显著改善，重点统计企业利润总额同比增长1.9倍， 销售利润率同比上升1.39个百分点至2.1%。供给端反内卷政策持续加码，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026年）》提出实施产量精准调控，严禁新增产能，推动行业增加值年均增长4%。需求结构持 续优化，制造业用钢占比 ...

相关机构表示，"反内卷"背景下，头部企业有望中长期受益。钢铁行业作为基础原材料需保障高端制造 业健康发展，头部企业需要具备合理利润来保障研发强度。企业自身有望实现"利润增长→持续研发→ 品种提升→利润率提升"的逻辑。此外，头部公司直供下游比例较高，近年来利润稳定性进一步增强， 具备类红利资产特征。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），一键布局【钢铁板材+特钢+金属制品】。该指 数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公 司证券的整体表现。指数成分股主要为钢铁制造企业，具有较强的周期性特征，行业配置以原材料为 主，体现出钢铁行业与市场动态及经济周期紧密相关的特点。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

资产规模大、竞争力强、而盈利弱势的钢铁行业，是"反内卷"治理过剩产能的重点行业。 从供给侧的逻辑看，钢铁行业"反内卷"政策或延续"产能+产量控制"以解决总量供需结构矛盾。根 据华创证券，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》较2023年版本在对于控制供给总量要求方 面更为明确。为配合实现供给收缩、落后产能退出的目标实现，进一步明确了未来要在碳管理、企业间 分类评级等方面提供政策支持，为未来政策推行提供了有效抓手。同时或将对行业违规项目进行查处， 进一步减少市场实际的供给总量。2025年9月，第三轮第四批中央生态环境保护督察组反馈督查情况， 其中"未经审批和产能置换新增炼钢产能"、"批小建大"、"违规建设钢铁项目"、"地条钢"等违规问题依 然出现，后续仍可关注相关情况进展。 从成本与盈利的逻辑看，上半年钢铁企业已享受到部分原料价格下行的红利，企业利润率及稳定性 处于近几年同期的较高水平。展望看，未来铁矿有望逐步让利钢铁行业。随着西芒杜铁矿投产，铁矿石 供给宽松的确定性较强。虽然钢价中枢可能随成本下降而下移，但若叠加钢铁减产、钢铁自身供需格局 改善，预计铁矿环节利润有望向钢铁及钢铁下游行业转移。根据长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of cost easing suggests significant room for iron ore price declines, with expectations that prices will gradually fall to a support level of $90 per ton next year [1] Group 1: Iron Ore Market - The steel sector's trading focus is shifting towards "iron ore concessions + steel production cuts" [1] - Major steel companies are currently undervalued, with potential for future performance improvement [1] - New regulatory conditions may be introduced in the steel industry, promoting the exit of outdated production capacity and stabilizing steel prices [1] Group 2: Steel ETF and Index - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which includes listed companies involved in ordinary steel and special steel businesses [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of publicly traded companies in the steel industry, characterized by strong cyclicality [1] - The industry allocation is primarily focused on raw materials, highlighting the close relationship between the steel sector and market dynamics as well as economic cycles [1]

Group 1 - The steel industry is expected to maintain stable or slightly increasing demand due to support from "steady growth" policies, with factors such as real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, ongoing manufacturing development, and high steel exports contributing to this outlook [1] - On the supply side, the steel supply is anticipated to tighten under the expectation of price control policies, and the industry's concentration is expected to continue increasing, leading to a generally stable supply-demand situation in the industry [1] - Overall, the industrial landscape of the steel sector is expected to improve steadily [1] Group 2 - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the steel industry, including both ordinary and special steel [1] - The index consists mainly of steel manufacturing companies, exhibiting strong cyclical characteristics, and the industry allocation is primarily focused on raw materials, highlighting the close relationship between the steel industry and market dynamics as well as economic cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a historic moment with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift in market dynamics where new productive forces are replacing traditional drivers as the main engine of growth [1][3]. Economic Factors - Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a recovery in consumption and a continuous rise in the manufacturing PMI, particularly in high-end equipment and electronic information sectors, which have significantly outperformed traditional industries, providing earnings support for the market [3]. - The liquidity easing signals from recent interest rate cuts and targeted support policies for technological innovation and high-end manufacturing have bolstered investor confidence [3]. - The influx of northbound capital has reached a three-year high, and the fundraising for public funds focused on technology themes has increased, contributing to a robust trading environment with daily transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [3]. Market Structure - Historical analysis shows that previous rallies at the 4000-point level relied heavily on traditional sectors like finance and real estate, while the current rally is primarily driven by the technology sector, which has contributed over half of the index's gains [4]. - The number of technology companies in the Shanghai Composite has increased fourfold since 2015, with their weight rising from less than 5% to 17%, indicating a fundamental shift from resource-driven growth to innovation-driven growth [4]. Future Outlook - The current market environment is supported by expectations of improved US-China relations, with technology leading the market rally, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [5]. - Short-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing policy benefits and liquidity support, while mid-term expectations suggest a gradual upward movement in market fundamentals [5]. - Investment opportunities are identified in high-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy, alongside defensive plays in undervalued sectors like cyclical and consumer stocks [5]. Investment Opportunities - High-growth opportunities include popular ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and technology, such as the Communication ETF (515880), the ChiNext AI ETF (159388), and the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) [6]. - Defensive opportunities can be found in unique market ETFs like the Coal ETF (515220), Steel ETF (515210), and the still undervalued Aquaculture ETF (159865) [7].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively retreated today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark, closing down 0.73% at 3986.90 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.16%, closing at 13532.13 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped 1.84% to 3263.02 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 242.17 billion, an increase of 165.6 billion compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors experienced declines, with the energy and metals sectors showing significant gains, particularly in steel and battery industries [1] - The gaming, power equipment, electronic chemicals, coal, securities, pesticides, and electronic components sectors saw the largest declines [1] Economic and Policy Context - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking a three-year low and the second rate cut this year [1][3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, which has influenced market sentiment [3] Investment Opportunities - The copper futures market showed fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 87960 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.10% [3] - Citic Securities anticipates that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply constraints, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [3] - The mining ETF tracking the non-ferrous metals index showed a strong performance, with a peak increase of 2.75% during the day [2] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new valuation restructuring phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the first time since October 28 [6] - The current market rally is driven by new productivity, shifting from traditional growth models reliant on financial and real estate sectors to technology-driven growth [7] - The technology sector has contributed significantly to the index's gains, with the number of tech companies in the index increasing fourfold compared to 2015 [7] - The easing of U.S.-China relations is seen as a foundational element for market recovery, with a focus on technology leading the market [8]

Core Insights - The revised 2025 version of the "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures" introduces stricter regulations on "zombie capacity," prohibiting the replacement of capacity that has not been built or has operated less than 90 days per year for two consecutive years [1] - New regulations on capacity trading have been established, allowing capacity replacement between different enterprises for iron and steel within two years of the implementation of the measures, after which it will be prohibited [1] Industry Overview - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which includes listed companies involved in ordinary steel, special steel, and metal products, reflecting the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The index consists mainly of steel manufacturing companies, exhibiting strong cyclical characteristics, with a focus on raw materials, indicating a close relationship between the steel industry and market dynamics as well as economic cycles [1]

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 相关机构表示，供给方面，钢铁产能产量退出预期提升。基本面上，随着钢厂盈利改善，生产动力 增强，近期铁水维持高位运行，目前供给减量偏弱。9月22日《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》公开，明确提到要继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原 则落实年度产量调控任务，促进供需动态平衡，为钢铁行业限产提出了较为实质性的目标。 预计行业将加速进入优胜劣汰阶段。相关部门将推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，将全面开展钢铁企业 分类评价，按照引领型规范企业、规范企业、不符合规范条件企业实施三级管理，引导资源要素向优势 企业集聚。预计2026年相关政策将逐步落地，落后产能逐步退出。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），一键布局"钢铁板材+特钢+金属制品"。该 指数从沪深市场中选 ...

10月27日午盘，钢铁产业放量大涨，全市场唯一钢铁ETF（515210）涨幅超2%，资金抢筹布局，近5日净流入超1亿元。 相关机构表示，钢铁基本面在2025年本身就有一个边际改善的趋势，包括需求拖累减弱、成本端价格下行，再叠加"反内卷"政策，钢铁行业面临多重利好。 总结来说，这一轮"反内卷"政策的必要性较强，并且高层的重视程度较高，如果后续相关行业的供需格局有所改善，相关行业的弹性和空间都是比较可观 的。 供给与成本有望共振，关注钢铁投资机会 供给方面，钢铁产能产量退出预期提升。基本面上，随着钢厂盈利改善，生产动力增强，近期铁水维持高位运行，目前供给减量偏弱。9月22日《钢铁行业 稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》公开，明确提到要继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原则落实年度产量调控任 务，促进供需动态平衡，为钢铁行业限产提出了较为实质性的目标。 预计行业将加速进入优胜劣汰阶段。相关部门将推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，将全面开展钢铁企业分类评价，按照引领型规范企业、规范企业、不符合规范 条件企业实施三级管理，引导资源要素向优势企业集聚。预计2026年相关政策将逐步落地，落后产 ...