资金面看，钢铁ETF（515210）近10日净流入超6亿元，行业政策预期支撑行情。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 渤海证券指出，随着钢铁行业稳增长政策逐步实施，行业竞争格局改善预期下后续行业盈利水平或得到 提升，未来船舶用钢和建筑用钢等领域需求有望得到提振，"设备更新"和"低碳转型"也有望成为行业发 展热点。基本面看，中物联钢铁物流专业委员会调查发布的2025年12月钢铁行业PMI指数为46.3%，环 比下降1.7pct.，行业运行继续收紧。 每日经济新闻 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的上 市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数成分股覆盖普钢、特钢等多 个细分领域，具有显著的周期性特征。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国金证券指出，钢铁行业成本侧原料供给双宽松，如原料宽松配合炼钢自律，则将出现长流程对短流程 的套利机会；需求侧重心已从内需地产转向出口制造，供给侧行政出清抓手多样。展望2026年，反内卷 框架下供给侧政策落地概率增加，钢铁行业盈利有望修复。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的相 关上市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。中证钢铁指数具有显著的周期性特征，主要覆盖 普钢、特钢等子领域。 ...

国盛证券表示，2025年，中国钢铁行业经历了结构调整和转型，未来将更加注重提高资本回报，而非扩 大需求。中央经济工作会议强调减少"内卷"，并制定了全国统一大市场建设条例，这将有助于改善市场 竞争环境。供给侧方面，预计未来政策将推动减产以恢复行业盈利能力。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的相 关上市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股涵盖普钢、特钢等主要子领域，具有 显著的周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济周期密切相关。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

招商证券指出，钢铁行业近期受产能调控与环保政策趋严影响，生产节奏放缓，供给总量趋紧。展望后 市，"稳增长"政策逐步推进，但短期供给仍大于需求，价格向上空间和弹性的关键取决于基建和制造业 的修复斜率。普钢方面，12月12日商务部发布公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月1 日起实行，这将进一步影响行业供需格局。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的上 市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股覆盖普钢、特钢等细分领域，具有典型的 周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济景气度高度关联。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 ...

相关机构表示，发改委和工信部近期相继发声，强调要深入整治"内卷式"竞争，持续实施粗钢产量 调控，钢铁供给端约束预期强化。根据国家统计局数据，25年1-11月，我国粗钢产量8.92亿吨，同比下 降 4.0%；生铁产量 7.74 亿吨，同比下降 2.3%；钢材产量 13.33 亿吨，同比增长 4.0%。未来粗钢产量调 控持续预期下，预计钢铁供给端格局将进一步优化。 根据我的钢铁网及力拓集团，西芒杜铁矿位于几内亚东南部，已探获标准资源量 44.1 亿吨，平均 铁品位超过 65%，初期规划年产能 1.2 亿吨，占 23 年全球铁矿产量的 4.8%。根据宝武集团官方公众 号，2025 年 11 月 11 日，西芒杜铁矿正式投产，预计明后年将持续贡献增量。西芒杜铁矿的投产，不 仅贡献了铁矿石供给增量，且由于宝武集团和中铝等中资企业参与度较高，也有助于提高中国企业在铁 矿上的议价能力，预期铁矿价格中枢将有所下行，进而一定程度上降低钢铁企业成本压力。 粗钢产量调控背景下，未来我国钢铁供需格局将持续改善，叠加铁矿供给的趋于宽松，钢企利润有 进一步修复空间。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数 ...

全市场唯一钢铁ETF（515210）涨超1.3%，龙头竞争优势与盈利能力凸显 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国泰海通指出，随着地产下行，地产端钢铁需求占比持续下降，但基建、制造业用钢需求有望平稳增 长。供给端市场化出清已开始出现，预期钢铁基本面有望逐步修复。长期来看，产业集中度提升、促进 高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，在环保加严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞 争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的相 关上市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股涵盖普钢、特钢等主要子领域，具有 显著的周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济周期密切相关。 ...

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing increased adjustment pressure, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases due to limited rebound heights and accelerated sector rotation [6] - It is suggested to wait for better layout opportunities rather than frequent trial and error in timing [6] Style Strategy - Defensive strategies are emphasized as year-end approaches, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for medium-term timing [3] - The gold sector is expected to benefit from a decline in dollar credit, leading to potential price increases [3] Theme Strategy - The special steel industry is anticipated to undergo high-quality development due to expected cost declines and new import-export management regulations [4] - The implementation of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure and enhance domestic profitability [6] Investment Opportunities - Investment targets include Chifeng Gold (600988, Buy) and Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) as they are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [6]

Core Viewpoint - The steel price is expected to rise, and it is an opportune time for sector allocation, supported by the initiation of central safety production assessments which will stabilize market confidence and positively influence steel price trends [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The impact of overseas tariffs is minimal for general steel companies due to their low export ratios, and the "stabilizing growth" policies from the government are likely to marginally improve steel demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [1] - Current profits per ton of general steel are substantial, and in the context of the industry's "anti-involution" trend, there is significant room for performance improvement among general steel companies [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects relevant listed companies in the steel industry from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the steel sector [1] - The index includes major sub-sectors such as general steel and special steel, exhibiting significant cyclical characteristics closely related to macroeconomic cycles [1]

Group 1 - The steel industry is expected to see significant improvement in profitability by the third quarter of 2025, with a projected profit increase of 1.9 times year-on-year for key statistical enterprises [1] - The sales profit margin is anticipated to rise by 1.39 percentage points to 2.1% [1] - The supply side will continue to implement anti-involution policies, with the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizing precise production control and prohibiting new capacity additions [1] Group 2 - The demand structure is continuously optimizing, with the proportion of steel used in manufacturing increasing from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2024, and high-end products like silicon steel seeing a 48% increase in output compared to 2020 [1] - The ordinary steel sector is performing well, accounting for 58.38% of total profits [1] - The industry is experiencing an improved supply-demand balance, with crude steel production down by 2.9% and apparent consumption down by 5.7%, while capacity continues to concentrate on leading quality enterprises [1] Group 3 - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the steel industry, including ordinary and special steel [1] - The index is composed mainly of steel manufacturing companies, exhibiting strong cyclical characteristics and primarily focusing on raw materials [1] - The steel industry is closely related to market dynamics and economic cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - Under the "anti-involution" backdrop, leading enterprises in the steel industry are expected to benefit in the medium to long term, as they play a crucial role in supporting the healthy development of high-end manufacturing [1]. Industry Summary - The steel industry is essential for ensuring the robust growth of high-end manufacturing, necessitating that leading companies maintain reasonable profit levels to support research and development efforts [1]. - The logic of "profit growth → continuous R&D → product enhancement → profit margin improvement" is anticipated to be realized by these enterprises [1]. - Leading companies have a high direct supply ratio to downstream sectors, which has further enhanced profit stability in recent years, giving them characteristics similar to dividend assets [1]. Company Summary - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects listed companies involved in ordinary steel and special steel businesses from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the steel industry [1]. - The index constituents are primarily steel manufacturing companies, exhibiting strong cyclical characteristics, with industry allocation mainly focused on raw materials, highlighting the close relationship between the steel industry and market dynamics as well as economic cycles [1].