行业点评报告 · 钢铁行业 供需格局改善,政策催化预期溶 2026 年 02 月 27 日 核心观点 钢铁行业 | | | 分析师 ☎: 0755-8347-9312 网: hongye_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523060002 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 02 月 27 日 400/ 20% 资料来源:Wind. 相关研究 1.【银河钢铁】行业点评报告_钢铁行业 2025 年业 绩预告:盈利改善趋势渐显,"十五五"开局产能加 速出清 20260131 赵良毕 ☎: 010-8092-7619 区: zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030003 开标 2. 【银河钢铁】行业点评:行业盈利修复提速,龙头 优势凸显 3. 【银河钢铁】行业周报_碳市场配额方案印发,钢 铁供给侧有望收缩 www.chinastock.com.cn 洪烨,通信&钢铁组分析师。中国人民大学财务硕士,曾供职于国泰君安证券,2023年加入中国银河证券。 免责声明 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公 ...

韩国是我国钢材出口的重要目的地(据中金测算，25年占比约6%)，本次以价格承诺替代高额反倾销税， 出口企业订单连续性与可预期性增强，约束最低价或将压缩低价抢量空间、改善外销报价秩序，出 口"蓄水池"作用有望回归，叠加国内地产政策或将宽松的预期，有望支撑市场情绪、推动行业景气修 复。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，韩国对华热轧板卷反倾销案终裁宣布与中方就价格承诺方案达成 一致、以价格承诺替代反倾销税，本次以价格承诺替代高额反倾销税，出口企业订单连续性与可预期性 增强，约束最低价或将压缩低价抢量空间、改善外销报价秩序，出口"蓄水池"作用有望回归，叠加国内 地产政策或将宽松的预期，有望支撑市场情绪、推动行业景气修复。库存上看，冬储偏弱导致库存处于 历史低位，若3月复工复产带动成交回暖，或将催化阶段性上行波段。 中金主要观点如下： 行业近况：2026年2月23日，韩国对华热轧板卷反倾销案终裁宣布与中方就价格承诺方案达成一致、以 价格承诺替代反倾销税；2月25日，工信部公示首批符合钢铁行业规范条件(2025年版)企业名单，包含 引领型规范企业35家、规范企业195家。 以最低价替税实现"软着陆"，提振市场对26年 ...

当前钢铁板块正站在多重逻辑共振的拐点上，受近期钢厂分级等利好消息持续催化，全市场唯一钢铁ETF（515210）开盘 大涨超2%。 从产业端看，经历了四年多下行周期，今年冬储累库力度为近年来最弱，低库存缓解了节后去库压力，供需弱平衡格局基 本形成。从政策端看，"反内卷"成为行业核心关键词，中央经济工作会议明确提出深入整治"内卷式"竞争，落后产能退出 有望加速。从成本端看，随着西芒杜等铁矿项目投产，2026年有望成为矿、焦新增产能的投产大年，港口铁矿库存已达 1.69亿吨的历史高位，原料端让利将为成材盈利打开空间。从需求端看，2025年钢铁行业迎来历史性转折——制造业用钢 占比首次超越建筑业，汽车、船舶、新能源等新兴产业正催生新的需求增长点。在供给端政策发力、成本端让利、库存低 位、需求结构优化的四重共振下，钢铁板块的上涨弹性值得期待。 【供给端：政策框架日益清晰，产能治理加速推进】 钢铁行业"反内卷"不再只是口号。高层会议明确整治"内卷式"竞争，环保督察常态化推进，违规产能正加速出清，行业集 中度有望进一步提升。 政策框架日益清晰。国盛证券指出，中央经济工作会议部署明年经济工作时提出，制定全国统一大市场建设条例 ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has experienced a decline of 2.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down by 2.31% and iron ore down by 4.67% [10][12] - Supply metrics indicate that as of January 30, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sampled steel companies is 85.5%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [27] - Demand for the five major steel products has decreased, with a total consumption of 801.7 million tons, down by 7.78 million tons week-on-week [37] - Social inventory of the five major steel products has increased to 890.7 million tons, up by 22.27 million tons week-on-week, while factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons [45] - The average price index for common steel is 3427.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.87 yuan/ton [51] - The report suggests that the recent safety incident at Baosteel may lead to temporary production cuts, providing cost and supply support for the industry [3] Supply Summary - As of January 30, the daily average pig iron production is 2.2798 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 million tons [27] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces is reported at 55.7%, down by 2.23 percentage points week-on-week [27] - The total production of the five major steel products reached 722.4 million tons, an increase of 5.17 million tons week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products has decreased to 801.7 million tons, a decline of 0.96% week-on-week [37] - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders is reported at 67,000 tons, down by 13.37% week-on-week [37] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products is at 890.7 million tons, up by 2.56% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons, down by 0.22% week-on-week [45] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index is at 3427.6 yuan/ton, down by 0.20% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is reported at 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.39% week-on-week [59] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces is at -80 yuan/ton, down by 26.98% week-on-week [59] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is at 793 yuan/ton, down by 12.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is reported at 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76]

Group 1: Industry Overview - Iron ore futures rose over 4% on January 7, with a nearly 10% increase over the past two weeks, despite a market characterized by "high supply, weak demand, and high inventory" [1] - The strong financial attributes of iron ore and clear expectations for inventory replenishment are driving price stability, supported by low holding costs and a "near high, far low" contract structure [1] - The steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in profitability, with total profits in the black metal smelting and rolling industry reaching 111.5 billion yuan from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1752.2% [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Jinchuan Company believes that the steel industry's anti-involution in 2026 is promising, with supply clearing expected to accelerate [2] - The company highlights that stricter capacity replacement policies in the ordinary steel sector and the acceleration of domestic substitution in the special steel industry will benefit from manufacturing upgrades and technological innovation [2] - Companies like Jinling Mining are noted for their unique iron ore resources and successful application of AI in developing blending models [3]

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]

Group 1 - The core purpose of the new steel export policy is to reduce illegal operations such as "buying orders" and "proxy exports," thereby increasing compliance costs and traceability for steel exports [1][2] - The steel export volume reached 107.7 million tons by November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but the average export price fell by over 10%, indicating a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in exports [2][3] - The new policy is expected to lead to a decline in steel export volume in 2026, as low-priced and low-quality products are likely to exit the market, improving the competitive landscape and profitability of steel exports [3] Group 2 - The new export policy signifies the government's focus on addressing the issue of export "involution," with expectations for differentiated management of production and tightening of capacity replacement to phase out inefficient capacity [4] - The steel sector is anticipated to experience a transformation in supply dynamics, with a positive outlook for the industry in 2026 [4] - Key investment recommendations include Hualing Steel (000932) and Tiangong International (00826) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry is undergoing significant structural changes due to a series of government measures aimed at curbing "involution" competition, with the implementation of export license management for steel products expected to accelerate these changes [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The demand for construction steel has been declining due to a downturn in the real estate sector, while demand from the manufacturing sector, particularly the automotive industry, is on the rise. The share of construction steel demand dropped from approximately 58% in 2020 to an expected 50% by 2024, with manufacturing steel demand increasing correspondingly [1][2]. - In 2023, the total investment in real estate development in China was 78,591 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. Concurrently, crude steel production fell by 4.0% to 89,167 million tons [2]. Price Trends - The price of rebar is projected to decline from 3,800 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton between 2024 and the second half of 2025, representing a 21% decrease [2]. - The average export price of steel has dropped by over 60% from December 2021 to October 2025, despite a 94.4% increase in monthly export volume [3]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export license management for a wide range of steel products, which is seen as a measure to control total output and segment domestic and international markets [3][4]. - The export quota policy is expected to create short-term emotional impacts and a decline in export orders, but it is also viewed as a strategic shift towards higher value-added product exports [4]. Raw Material Prices - Prices for upstream raw materials, such as coke and iron ore, have been declining. As of December 12, coke prices were reduced by 50-55 yuan/ton, and domestic coking coal futures fell below 1,100 yuan/ton [6]. - Iron ore prices have remained stable between 100-110 USD/ton, with expectations of a continued decline in demand and an oversupply situation in the market [6].

Group 1 - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to three main factors: declining raw material prices, supply-side adjustments, and resilient demand from manufacturing [3][5][9] - The West Simandou iron ore project is set to commence production in November 2025, significantly increasing iron ore supply and contributing to a downward trend in iron ore prices [3][71] - Government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting energy efficiency are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a more optimized supply structure in the steel industry [3][16][10] Group 2 - Demand for steel is projected to stabilize in the construction sector, while manufacturing demand remains resilient, particularly for flat steel and special steel products [3][19][25] - The overall steel demand in China is forecasted to decline slightly, with total demand expected to be 9.05 billion tons in 2025, a decrease of 0.11% from 2024 [19][20] - The construction sector's share of steel demand is decreasing, while the manufacturing sector's share is increasing, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [3][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the profitability of steel companies is recovering, with a stronger performance expected in flat steel compared to long steel products [3][85][82] - The average profit margin for steel companies is projected to improve as cost pressures ease, with a focus on companies with stable demand and low valuations [3][87][90] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, which are expected to benefit from the shift towards manufacturing [3][95][94]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry, characterized by large asset scale, strong competitiveness, and weak profitability, is a key focus for "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing overcapacity [1] Group 1: Supply-Side Policies - The "anti-involution" policy in the steel industry is expected to continue with "capacity + output control" to resolve the total supply-demand structural contradictions [1] - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" has clearer requirements for controlling total supply compared to the 2023 version, aiming for supply contraction and the exit of outdated capacity [1] - Future policies will provide support in carbon management and classification ratings among enterprises, facilitating the implementation of these policies [1] - Ongoing issues such as "unauthorized and capacity-replacement new steelmaking capacity" and "illegal construction of steel projects" are still present, warranting attention to future developments [1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - In the first half of the year, steel companies benefited from declining raw material prices, resulting in higher profit margins and stability compared to previous years [2] - The production of the Ximangdu iron ore mine is expected to lead to a more relaxed supply of iron ore, which may benefit the steel industry [2] - Although steel prices may decrease with falling costs, a reduction in steel production and improved supply-demand dynamics could allow profits from the iron ore segment to shift towards steel and downstream industries [2] - According to Changjiang Securities, the profit distribution in the steel industry chain for the first eight months of 2025 shows iron ore, coking coal, and finished products accounting for 72%, 7%, and 22% of profits, respectively, indicating a larger space for iron ore to provide benefits compared to coking coal [2] - Under the "anti-involution" backdrop, leading companies are expected to benefit in the medium to long term, as they require reasonable profits to support R&D intensity [2] - The logic of "profit growth → continuous R&D → product enhancement → profit margin improvement" is anticipated for these leading companies [2] - Leading companies have a higher direct supply ratio to downstream, enhancing profit stability and exhibiting characteristics of quasi-rent assets [2] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the steel ETF (515210) [2]