普钢公司业绩大幅改善，后续修复空间或依然显著 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [普钢公司业绩大幅改善，后续修复空间或依然显著 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 高 升 煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 17.88, up from the previous value of RMB 17.42 [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong resilience in its development, with a slight year-over-year revenue decline of 4.02% to RMB 54.715 billion in H1 2025, while net profit increased by 2.67% to RMB 2.798 billion [1][2]. - The company is focusing on strategic sectors such as wind power, oil and gas, hydrogen energy, pumped storage, and new energy vehicles, which are expected to drive demand for its products [2]. - The steel industry is entering a phase where the urgency and strategic nature of anti-involution policies are being debated, with potential production cuts that could enhance profitability if implemented [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 27.875 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 2.45% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.86%. Net profit for the same period was RMB 1.414 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.58% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 14.89%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the special steel sector, with a strong focus on optimizing its product structure and enhancing quality and efficiency [2]. - The sales distribution of products across various sectors includes 35% in energy, 25% in automotive, 20% in machinery, and 10% in bearings [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be RMB 1.14, RMB 1.28, and RMB 1.49 respectively [4][10]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability driven by potential production cuts in the steel industry, contingent on government policy implementation [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance continues to be under pressure, but there is optimism for a recovery in the main business and an increase in wet-process business volume in the second half of the year [1][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.794 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 69 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.26% [1] - The report forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 300 million, 420 million, and 570 million yuan respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company’s comprehensive gross margin was 17.22%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s revenue from functional, shaped, unshaped refractory materials, and other businesses for the first half of 2025 was 627 million, 1.072 billion, 544 million, and 551 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.25%, 2.93%, 1.90%, and 10.85% [2] - The company reported a credit impairment loss of 52 million yuan, which was an increase of 37 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the bankruptcy of certain clients in Eastern Europe [3] Business Outlook - The report indicates an expected reversal in the main business as the steel industry’s internal competition policies deepen, which may improve profitability for steel clients [4] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a partner, expecting to supply 500,000 tons of sedimentation agents by the end of 2028, which supports future business volume growth [4]

Group 1 - Steel stocks experienced a broad decline today, with Angang Steel (00347) down 6.01% to HKD 2.19, Maanshan Steel (00323) down 3.95% to HKD 2.43, and Chongqing Steel (01053) down 3.4% to HKD 1.42 [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates that the steel industry's prosperity will improve from Q3 2024 to the first half of 2025 through voluntary production cuts, reducing the urgency for short-term anti-involution measures [1] - Future policies will likely depend on the government's strategic positioning regarding the steel industry's anti-involution approach [1] Group 2 - The increase in the steel sector from January to July 2025 is primarily driven by expectations surrounding anti-involution policies, which have not yet entered the execution phase [1] - Expectations of anti-involution have led to significant increases in coking coal and iron ore prices, further eroding steel profits and potentially forcing steel mills to implement anti-involution measures [1]

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry has seen a recovery in profitability compared to last year, with total profits of 46 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, still at historical lows, indicating a need for further improvement in profitability [1][2][5] - The PB valuation of the steel sector is slightly above 1x, but given the industry's profit recovery and the elasticity at the bottom of the cycle, the current valuation remains attractive and has investment value [1][2][10] - The holding ratio in the steel sector has decreased further, indicating low market attention and that the industry is still in a bottom cycle, with trading not being crowded [1][2][10] Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Cycle**: The steel industry's profits have improved in the first half of 2025 but remain historically low, only slightly better than 2015 levels, with total profits around 46 billion yuan [2][5] - **Valuation Levels**: Despite the rise in the steel sector this year, the PB valuation is still considered undervalued, with the potential for profit recovery and elasticity from the bottom cycle [2][10] - **Supply and Demand**: Improvements in supply and demand are primarily driven by production cuts and mid-term capacity clearance, with marginal improvements noted from Q3 last year to Q2 this year [2][3][16] - **Short-term Catalysts**: Supply-side reforms under the anti-involution strategy, including production cuts and increased infrastructure work, are expected to positively impact the industry [1][2][3] Future Outlook - The decision-makers aim to enhance the industry's profit center through short-term production control and mid-term capacity clearance, expecting good performance in the steel industry over the next three years [3][19] - The demand for construction steel is expected to remain flat or slightly decrease for the year, while manufacturing steel demand is strong but may face export pressures in the second half [1][15][16] Recommended Stocks - **Hualing Steel**: Lowest PB valuation among quality companies, with continuous shareholder returns expected [4] - **Shougang**: High fixed costs due to relocation, but has significant potential in automotive and silicon steel if the industry recovers [4] - **Baosteel**: Currently undervalued but will benefit significantly from industry recovery [4] - **Fangda Special Steel**: Currently at historical low PB valuation, with potential for growth if production adjustments are made [4] Government Measures - The government emphasizes anti-involution policies to improve the steel industry's situation, with a focus on reducing production to maintain overall profitability [7][19] - The implementation of production reduction policies has been slow, facing challenges particularly with small steel mills [18] Current Production and Supply Situation - The steel industry is experiencing overproduction due to fixed cost absorption strategies, leading to a competitive environment [6] - The overall inventory level is low, with a year-on-year decrease of about 30%, which is favorable for price increases [20][21] Conclusion - The steel industry is currently at a cyclical bottom with significant potential for upward movement. Quality stocks that enhance product value or have strong profit elasticity are recommended for investment [24][25][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain strong overall due to ongoing production cuts and favorable demand conditions, despite recent price declines and inventory increases [3][4] - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is likely to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the industry is moving towards a more concentrated supply structure, which may stabilize the overall supply-demand situation [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 2.26% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in various sub-sectors: special steel down 1.28%, long products down 4.00%, and flat products down 1.80% [10][12] - Iron ore and steel raw materials also saw declines, with iron ore down 5.96% and steel consumables down 3.74% [12] Supply Data - As of August 1, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.52 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 1.10 tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, down 0.57 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 1.56 percentage points to 57.1% [25] Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.52 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 161,000 tons, reflecting a 1.85% decline [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, down 2.07 tons week-on-week, marking an 18.00% decrease [35] Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased to 9.424 million tons, up 152,900 tons week-on-week, but down 25.37% year-on-year [43] - Factory inventory remained stable at 4.095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons [43] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,563.9 yuan/ton, down 42.25 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the special steel index increased slightly to 6,629.6 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar production was 200 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 770 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current steel downturn cycle has similarities and differences with the previous one. The current cycle is more driven by demand decline, with a larger demand drop but a less severe overcapacity issue. The price center is still higher due to increased demand and emerging market demand [2][27][46] - The main policy focus of the previous supply - side reform included capacity reduction, supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control. However, there were some implementation issues [49][51][56] - Potential supply - side policies for the current "anti - involution" in the steel industry may include promoting ultra - low emission transformation and incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market. These are long - term tasks, and short - term over - trading is not recommended. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [4][78][79] Summary by Directory 1. Comparison of the Current and Previous Steel Downturn Cycles - **Price decline and structure**: The decline time of the current cycle is similar to the previous one. The average price decline of finished products is slightly higher, while the decline of iron ore and coking coal is relatively smaller. The price center is higher than the previous low. The current cycle compresses steel mill profits earlier, and the profit recovers in 2024 - 25 [15][19] - **Demand and overcapacity**: The current cycle is triggered by the decline in real estate demand. The domestic demand for crude steel has been in negative growth since 2021. Although the demand decline is larger, the total demand is on a higher level, and the overcapacity is less severe than the previous cycle [20][27] - **Demand structure**: In the current cycle, the proportion of manufacturing and export demand has increased, playing a role in hedging demand decline. The external demand for manufacturing is strong, supported by overseas demand and emerging market growth. The overseas steel demand also shows a structural increase in emerging markets [28][31][33] 2. Review of the Previous Supply - Side Structural Reform Policies and Market Changes - **Policy background and path**: The previous supply - side reform aimed to solve problems such as overcapacity, high leverage, and real estate inventory. The main policies included capacity reduction (1 - 1.5 billion tons of steel and 5 billion tons of coal), supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control [47][49][51] - **Market performance**: The steel price performance during the previous reform can be divided into four stages: policy - expectation - driven rise and fall (2015.12 - 2016.4), supply - reduction - driven rise (2016.5 - 2016.12), capacity - reduction - driven profit expansion (2017), and supply - elasticity - increase and narrowing profit (2018 - 2019) [57][61][71] 3. Potential Policy Directions for the Current "Anti - Involution" in the Steel Industry - The current market environment is similar to the previous one, with profit compression and a certain degree of market - based clearance. The priority of promoting supply - side reform this year is not high, but "anti - involution" may be related to anti - deflation [72] - Potential capacity - reduction directions include eliminating blast furnaces below 1000 cubic meters and promoting ultra - low emission transformation in 2026. Supply - control may be achieved by incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market, which is a long - term task. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [73][78][79]

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a supplementary agreement with Greenme to purchase 500,000 tons of low-cost core precipitant products for nickel ore smelting by December 31, 2028, which is expected to significantly enhance its operational efficiency and profitability in the nickel resource sector [3]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The company has established a strategic cooperation framework with Greenme, which includes a commitment to supply active magnesium oxide, with projected annual supplies of 5,000 tons in 2025, 15,000 tons in 2026, and 15,000 tons in both 2027 and 2028 [4]. - The active magnesium oxide product is expected to reduce the smelting costs of Greenme's nickel resource projects by 10%-15%, thereby improving profitability and global competitiveness [5]. Group 2: Industry Context - The steel industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, as emphasized by the Central Financial Committee, which aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [7]. - As a result of this industry shift, the company's refractory materials business is anticipated to gradually recover alongside the improvement in profitability of its steel customers [6].

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry is currently facing issues of disorderly competition and overcapacity, with policies aimed at improving product quality and phasing out outdated capacity to optimize industrial structure and enhance overall production efficiency [1][2][3] - The central government has been promoting steel capacity reduction policies since 2021, which are expected to continue beyond 2025 [1][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released a new version of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions," categorizing companies into "standard" and "leading" types to guide support from local governments and banks [1][8] Key Points and Arguments - The central financial committee emphasized resolving issues of disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity, with new policies expected to be introduced before the National Day [1][13] - The new policies focus more on market-oriented measures rather than direct administrative intervention, contrasting with the 2016 capacity reduction reforms [1][14] - The steel industry is projected to see a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in profitability in the first half of 2025, providing a solid foundation for future restructuring [1][4] Market Dynamics - The current market cycle shows a dual resonance of supply-side reform and demand-side growth, with significant infrastructure projects like the Yalong River Hydropower Station positively impacting demand [3][4] - However, the domestic demand for steel remains limited due to a declining real estate market and only slight fluctuations in infrastructure investment [27] - Steel exports face challenges from increased trade investigations and anti-dumping measures, with a notable decline in export conditions expected in the second half of 2025 [26][27] Future Development Directions - The steel industry is expected to continue implementing capacity control policies to optimize production structure and enhance environmental and energy efficiency standards [5][24] - The introduction of carbon emission trading markets in 2026 will require companies to verify carbon emission boundaries and obtain carbon quotas, with penalties for data misreporting [20][21] - The focus will shift towards producing high-value-added products while reducing low-end product output, aligning with market demands and enhancing industry competitiveness [24] Challenges and Considerations - Local governments face significant pressure to maintain GDP growth, leading to reluctance in enforcing production cuts, as steel production is a major contributor to local economies [16][22] - The interplay between central and local governments complicates the enforcement of capacity reduction policies, with local interests often conflicting with national objectives [17][41] - The steel industry must navigate the complexities of environmental regulations and the need for super emission reductions, with all companies currently engaged in emission reduction upgrades [30][31] Conclusion - The steel industry is at a critical juncture, with policies aimed at enhancing quality and sustainability while addressing overcapacity and competition issues. The successful implementation of these policies will depend on cooperation between central and local governments, as well as the industry's ability to adapt to new market conditions and regulatory frameworks [19][44][49]

Group 1 - The steel industry is experiencing a significant price increase in coking coal and coke, driven by macroeconomic narratives and government initiatives to combat "involution" in the sector [1][4] - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has emphasized the need to control capacity and eliminate backward production capacity to prevent overcapacity risks in the steel industry [1][2] - Coking coal imports increased by 23.31% month-on-month in June, reaching 9.10842 million tons, although this represents a nearly 8% year-on-year decline [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of coking coal mines has risen to 85.5%, reflecting a recovery in production as safety and environmental checks ease [2] - The market for coking coal remains strong, with a notable increase in inventory levels among independent coking enterprises, which rose by 5.21% to 8.9235 million tons [2] - The sentiment in the market is resilient, with downstream steel and coke enterprises actively replenishing their coal inventories [2][3] Group 3 - Futures market expectations are bullish for both coking coal and coke, with analysts predicting continued price increases due to strong demand and limited supply recovery [3][4] - The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, and there are expectations for a second round as coking enterprises seek to improve profitability [4][5] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with speculation and rigid demand providing effective support for coking coal and coke prices [5][6]