点评：银河证券表示，钢铁行业盈利能力显著改善，成本管控成效突出，供需结构改善与产品结构升级 共同推动盈利空间拓宽。供给侧反内卷政策加码，工信部印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026 年)》，提出行业增加值年均增长4%左右，出清有序推进；需求侧新基建、新能源等制造用钢兴起，支 撑板材与特钢景气度。 凌钢股份：全资子公司凌钢股份北票保国铁矿是以生产铁精矿为主的矿山企业，矿山设计产能250万吨/ 年。 中金公司认为，2026年钢铁反内卷值得期待，供给出清有望提速。普钢领域产能置换政策趋严，绿色指 标将成产量调控新抓手；特钢行业迎来国产化替代加速拐点，受益于制造业升级与科技创新，盈利能力 和估值中枢有望上移。同时，炉料价格下行周期延续，钢企购销差价有望扩大，利润向成材端偏斜。 上下游产业链方面，铁矿石价格坚挺对上游资源品企业形成支撑，而钢铁行业盈利修复与结构升级，将 进一步带动特钢、高端装备用钢等细分领域发展，产业链上下游协同受益于行业格局优化。 1月7日行情显示，铁矿石期货收涨逾4%，近半个月涨幅接近10%。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 据Mysteel报道，当前铁矿石市场呈现"高供给、弱需求、高 ...

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]

中金发布研报称，近日，商务部、海关总署联合发布公告，决定对《出口许可证管理货物目录(2025 年)》进行调整，将部分钢铁产品纳入出口许可证管理范围。本次钢铁出口新政的核心目的之一在于压 缩"买单出口""挂靠出口"等违规操作空间，新政落地后，钢铁出口合规成本与可追溯性明显提升。当前 钢铁板块整体估值仍处于历史偏低区间，在出口合规化与反内卷政策协同推进的背景下行业竞争格局有 望持续改善，马太效应有望凸显，核心资产有望迎戴维斯双击。 26年钢铁反内卷仍可期，行业供需格局无需过于悲观 中金认为，本次出口新政标志着国家对出口内卷问题的重视，26年行业反内卷政策值得期待，通过行业 分级差异化管控产量及收紧产能置换，逐步出清淘汰落后低效产能，钢铁行业供给变革有望在26年加 速，行业供需无需过于悲观。 标的方面 重点推荐华菱钢铁（000932）(000932.SZ)、天工国际(00826)。 风险因素 中金主要观点如下： 出口许可管理重启，旨在引导行业高质量发展 本次钢材产品出口许可证管理重启，背景是过去三年我国钢材出口量持续"量增价减"：截至2025年11月 我国钢材出口量达1.077亿吨，同比增6.7%，创历史新高，而出 ...

证券时报记者魏书光 "反内卷"持续推进 需求在变，供给调整措施也开始发力。近日，商务部与海关总署共同发布公告，对部分钢铁产品实施出 口许可证管理，政策覆盖了绝大多数中国钢铁出口产品，包含300个海关商品编号，涉及生铁、钢坯、 卷材、板材、管材、长材、H型钢、钢丝、不锈钢乃至废钢等。 国家综合整治钢铁行业"内卷式"竞争的一系列举措，加快落地。随着钢铁产品出口许可证管理即将实 施，国内钢铁市场结构性变化会进一步加快。 过去5年，随着地产退潮，建筑用钢需求下滑，而以新能源汽车为代表的制造业需求抬升，钢铁高质量 发展的新叙事已经展开。在钢铁市场供给进一步缩量预期下，上游焦炭和铁矿石价格都出现了下跌。 用钢市场结构巨变 近日，中国钢铁工业协会党委常委、副会长骆铁军在一研讨会上呼吁，加强两个行业（钢铁业和汽车 业）的沟通协调，将研发投入与技术价值纳入采购评价体系，探索建成长期稳定、互利共赢的上下游供 应链模式，坚决抵制低价中标采购，实现"有质量的保供、有效益的共赢"。 骆铁军认为，中国钢铁行业进入"减量发展、存量优化"的阶段性特征愈发明显，以房地产为代表的建筑 用钢需求持续下降。2020年—2024年，我国钢筋、线材产量 ...

Group 1 - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to three main factors: declining raw material prices, supply-side adjustments, and resilient demand from manufacturing [3][5][9] - The West Simandou iron ore project is set to commence production in November 2025, significantly increasing iron ore supply and contributing to a downward trend in iron ore prices [3][71] - Government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting energy efficiency are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a more optimized supply structure in the steel industry [3][16][10] Group 2 - Demand for steel is projected to stabilize in the construction sector, while manufacturing demand remains resilient, particularly for flat steel and special steel products [3][19][25] - The overall steel demand in China is forecasted to decline slightly, with total demand expected to be 9.05 billion tons in 2025, a decrease of 0.11% from 2024 [19][20] - The construction sector's share of steel demand is decreasing, while the manufacturing sector's share is increasing, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [3][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the profitability of steel companies is recovering, with a stronger performance expected in flat steel compared to long steel products [3][85][82] - The average profit margin for steel companies is projected to improve as cost pressures ease, with a focus on companies with stable demand and low valuations [3][87][90] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, which are expected to benefit from the shift towards manufacturing [3][95][94]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry, characterized by large asset scale, strong competitiveness, and weak profitability, is a key focus for "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing overcapacity [1] Group 1: Supply-Side Policies - The "anti-involution" policy in the steel industry is expected to continue with "capacity + output control" to resolve the total supply-demand structural contradictions [1] - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" has clearer requirements for controlling total supply compared to the 2023 version, aiming for supply contraction and the exit of outdated capacity [1] - Future policies will provide support in carbon management and classification ratings among enterprises, facilitating the implementation of these policies [1] - Ongoing issues such as "unauthorized and capacity-replacement new steelmaking capacity" and "illegal construction of steel projects" are still present, warranting attention to future developments [1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - In the first half of the year, steel companies benefited from declining raw material prices, resulting in higher profit margins and stability compared to previous years [2] - The production of the Ximangdu iron ore mine is expected to lead to a more relaxed supply of iron ore, which may benefit the steel industry [2] - Although steel prices may decrease with falling costs, a reduction in steel production and improved supply-demand dynamics could allow profits from the iron ore segment to shift towards steel and downstream industries [2] - According to Changjiang Securities, the profit distribution in the steel industry chain for the first eight months of 2025 shows iron ore, coking coal, and finished products accounting for 72%, 7%, and 22% of profits, respectively, indicating a larger space for iron ore to provide benefits compared to coking coal [2] - Under the "anti-involution" backdrop, leading companies are expected to benefit in the medium to long term, as they require reasonable profits to support R&D intensity [2] - The logic of "profit growth → continuous R&D → product enhancement → profit margin improvement" is anticipated for these leading companies [2] - Leading companies have a higher direct supply ratio to downstream, enhancing profit stability and exhibiting characteristics of quasi-rent assets [2] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the steel ETF (515210) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is facing a significant supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to a rapid decline in demand for construction steel since the second half of 2021, leading to an oversupply in the market [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Since the second half of 2021, domestic steel demand has sharply decreased following negative growth in real estate construction starts, while supply has not adjusted accordingly, resulting in an oversupply situation [2][3]. - The current oversupply cycle is characterized by a rapid decline in demand for construction steel, while demand for manufacturing steel remains resilient, causing a shift in some companies' product focus and exacerbating competition within the industry [2][3]. - The industry is trapped in a negative cycle of oversupply leading to price declines, which in turn compresses profits and limits the ability to reduce production significantly, further worsening supply-demand conditions [2][3]. Policy and Structural Changes - The macroeconomic environment shows a continuous decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with industrial profits significantly lower than during previous supply-side reforms, necessitating a resolution to the structural imbalance in supply and demand [3][4]. - Historical supply-side reforms during the "13th Five-Year Plan" and "14th Five-Year Plan" have led to positive changes in the industry, suggesting that similar policies could benefit the steel sector again [4][5]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to address the structural issues by promoting capacity control and supporting advanced enterprises while phasing out outdated production capacity [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - The shift towards high-end and green production since the 2016 supply-side reform has created differentiation among companies, with the current "anti-involution" policies expected to further optimize the industry structure and support leading enterprises [7]. - Companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, Shougang, Hebei Steel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable positioning in the evolving market landscape [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently facing an imbalance in both total supply and structural demand, leading to oversupply and price declines. The demand for construction steel has rapidly decreased since the second half of 2021, while supply has not adjusted accordingly, resulting in a negative cycle of oversupply and price drops [2][14]. - A "de-involution" in the steel industry is deemed necessary to address the structural imbalance and enhance competition. The report suggests that past supply-side reforms have positively impacted the industry, and similar measures could benefit the current situation [2][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Imbalance in Total and Structural Supply - Since the second half of 2021, the demand for construction steel has declined sharply due to negative growth in new housing starts, while supply has not decreased proportionately, leading to a clear oversupply situation [14][22]. - The structural issue arises as the demand for construction steel weakens, while the manufacturing sector shows resilience, causing a shift in supply from construction to manufacturing steel, exacerbating the competition in the manufacturing sector [2][25]. - The result has been a long-term decline in steel prices, with the CISA steel price index dropping by 47.82% from its peak in 2021 [33]. 2. Necessity of "De-involution" in the Steel Industry - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure, with the PPI in a downward trend for 36 consecutive months, leading to a significant drop in industrial profits [42][51]. - The report highlights that the previous supply-side reforms during the "13th Five-Year Plan" and "14th Five-Year Plan" brought about positive changes, suggesting that a new round of "de-involution" could similarly benefit the industry [51][52]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that leading steel companies are likely to benefit in the long term from the "de-involution" policies, which are expected to optimize the supply structure and support advanced enterprises [8][28]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality leading companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, Shougang, Hebei Steel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, as they are expected to experience profit growth and improved operational conditions [8][28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel market is facing a mix of long - and short - term factors. The mainstream short - position holdings have increased more, and the market is under short - term pressure. The operation strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bearish trend, with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,919,017 lots, up 39,567 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 93,441 lots, down 27,034 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 66 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,640 tons, down 1,200 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,354 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 191 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing is 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of October 31, 20 cities have introduced 26 real - estate market relaxation policies, and more cities may follow to improve and standardize construction design plans and calculation rules. The US Treasury Secretary said that the China - US trade agreement may be signed this week, and China is willing to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US relations [2].

Core Viewpoint - Lingyuan Steel Co., Ltd. reported a net loss of 266 million yuan in Q3 2025, although this represents an improvement compared to a net loss of 841 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a narrowing of losses due to increased revenue and reduced costs in the steel industry [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.38 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total operating revenue was 11.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.31% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The net loss for the first three quarters of 2025 was 844 million yuan, which is an improvement from a net loss of 1.36 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][2]. Industry Context - The steel industry has shown signs of recovery, with a reported total profit of 59.2 billion yuan for key steel enterprises in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.26% [1][3]. - The improvement in Lingyuan Steel's performance is attributed to a significant reduction in steel material costs, which outpaced the decline in prices [3]. Debt and Capital Expenditure - As of September 30, 2025, the company had total assets of 15.12 billion yuan and total liabilities of 10.36 billion yuan, indicating a slight decrease in total assets from the end of 2024 [3]. - The company is under pressure from ongoing capital expenditures, with significant investments in ongoing projects, including a total planned investment of 2.126 billion yuan for equipment upgrades [3][4]. - Lingyuan Steel has one outstanding bond, "Ling Steel Convertible Bond," with a balance of 217 million yuan, rated AA and maturing in April 2026 [4].