单季度营收维持稳定，成本管控延续。2025Q3钢铁板块实现营收4801.23亿元，同比增加0.07%;营业成 本4435.39亿元，同比减少4.42%;实现归母净利润87.16亿元，环比增长12.16%，同比扭亏为盈，成本收 缩是利润扭亏的核心驱动因素，强化盈利修复的可持续性。归母净利润按季度递增，25Q3利润创新 高。25Q1实现归母净利润54.41亿元，同比增长549.88%，环比扭亏为盈;25Q3归母净利润达到87.16亿 元，环比继续增长12.16%，较去年同期扭亏为盈，单季度盈利规模创2024年以来新高。分季度看，净 利率与毛利率均稳步递增，盈利效率持续提升。25Q3销售净利率为2.19%，同比提升3.85个百分点，环 比提升0.30个百分点;25Q2销售净利率为1.89%，环比提升0.44个百分点;25Q1销售净利率为1.45%，相较 24Q4提升2.68个百分点，本年净利率连续三个季度环比提升，盈利质量的改善趋势明确。同时，25Q3 销售毛利率为7.59%，同比提升4.34个百分点，环比提升0.13个百分点，成本端优化与产品结构升级共 同推动盈利空间持续拓宽，成为板块盈利修复的核心支撑。 中国银 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the steel industry [1] Core Insights - The overall profitability of the steel industry is recovering rapidly, with effective cost control measures leading to significant improvements in profit margins [5][6] - In Q3 2025, the steel sector achieved record profits, with net profit margins increasing quarterly, indicating a sustainable recovery in profitability [7][10] - The recovery in profitability is broadening, with leading companies showing faster recovery rates compared to their peers, highlighting the advantages of scale and cost management [19][24] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with stable high dividends, those with high technical barriers, and upstream resource companies benefiting from improved supply dynamics [27] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Profitability Recovery and Cost Control - The profitability of the steel industry has shown significant improvement, with a total profit of 111.5 billion yuan from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1,752.2% [5] - The SW steel sector reported a net profit of 20.147 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [5][6] 2. Record Profits in Q3 2025 - In Q3 2025, the steel sector generated revenue of 480.123 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.07%, while costs decreased by 4.42% [7][8] - The net profit for Q3 2025 reached 8.716 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.16% increase from the previous quarter and a significant recovery from losses in the same period last year [7][10] 3. Broadening Profit Recovery and Leading Companies - Leading steel companies like Baosteel and Shougang have demonstrated strong profit recovery, with Shougang's net profit increasing by 368.13% year-on-year [19][20] - The recovery in profitability is not limited to top firms; several smaller companies have also turned losses into profits, indicating a broad improvement across the sector [24] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable high dividends, such as CITIC Special Steel and Hualing Steel, as well as those with high technical barriers like Fangda Special Steel [27] - Upstream resource companies like Baotou Steel and Hainan Mining are also recommended due to expected improvements in supply dynamics [27]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a turning point in 2025, with demand stabilizing and supply-side reductions contributing to recovery after a prolonged period of losses since 2021 [1] Supply Analysis - The expansion cycle of steel production capacity has ended, and the capacity utilization rate remains high, leading to a forecast of reduced steel output in the future. As of January to July 2025, China's crude steel production was 594 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.10% [1] - The steel industry has been in a state of loss since the third quarter of 2022, prompting some production capacity to be reduced or halted. The market is beginning to clear, and a cyclical upward trend is anticipated as supply contracts [1] - If supply-side policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction may accelerate, leading to a quicker industry recovery [1] Demand Analysis - Domestic demand for steel is primarily influenced by real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors. The ongoing decline in the real estate sector has significantly reduced its share of steel demand, but the negative impact is expected to diminish [2] - Demand from the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors is projected to grow steadily, while steel exports maintained a relatively fast year-on-year growth in the first seven months [2] - Overall, steel demand is expected to gradually stabilize [2] Price, Cost, and Profitability Analysis - Short-term steel prices are influenced by changes in domestic demand, while long-term prices depend on marginal supply and demand changes [3] - The cost structure of the steel industry is heavily reliant on raw materials, with iron ore and coking coal accounting for approximately 70% of total costs. China's dependence on imported iron ore necessitates close monitoring of international supply and demand [3] - The outlook suggests a loosening of the fundamentals for iron ore and coal, with expectations of declining prices for coking coal and iron ore, which will aid in the recovery of steel industry profits [3]

Group 1 - The steel ETF (515210) rose over 2.2% on July 29, indicating positive market sentiment towards the steel industry [1] - From January to June, the profit of the black metal smelting and rolling industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year, driven by ongoing supply reduction policies [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to "govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity," which is expected to further enhance steel profits [1] Group 2 - The average gross profit of rebar in July reached 213 yuan per ton, more than doubling from the first quarter (82 yuan) and the second quarter (86 yuan) [1] - Current strict implementation of crude steel production cuts and relaxed iron ore supply suggest that there is still room for steel profits to rise [1] - Major steel product prices have shown significant weekly increases, with rebar and hot-rolled coil gross profits reaching 312 yuan/ton and 305 yuan/ton, respectively, indicating ongoing recovery in industry profitability [1] Group 3 - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects listed companies involved in steel production and processing to reflect the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The CSI Steel Index is characterized by strong cyclicality and a high correlation with the macro economy, serving as an important indicator of the market performance of China's steel industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Steel ETF Connect C (008190) and Guotai CSI Steel ETF Connect A (008189) [1]