Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The cobalt supply crisis continues, with prices expected to rise to new heights due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [14][16] - The DRC's new quota management system has significantly reduced annual cobalt export volumes, with a maximum of 96,600 tons allowed for 2026/2027 [14][15] - Global cobalt supply is projected to decrease to 206,000 tons in 2025, with consumption expected to reach 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a rigid supply shortage [21][22] Summary by Sections Cobalt Supply and Demand - The DRC's new export quota system has replaced previous export bans, leading to a projected annual export volume of less than 100,000 tons [14][16] - The global cobalt supply is expected to sharply decline to 200,000 tons, with the DRC contributing significantly to this reduction [16][21] - Cobalt consumption is anticipated to maintain growth, with projections of 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a persistent supply shortage [21][22] Price Trends - Cobalt product prices have seen a significant increase, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, a 306% increase [26] - Current prices for cobalt products in China are reported at 402,000 CNY per ton for cobalt metal and 432,000 CNY per ton for cobalt sulfate [26] - The report suggests that as cobalt raw material inventories are consumed, there is potential for further price increases in cobalt products [26] Market Dynamics - The overall non-ferrous metals market continues to show strength, with significant price increases observed in tungsten, lithium, and aluminum [30] - The report highlights that the U.S. Department of Defense is set to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement program, marking a significant move in cobalt supply dynamics [26]