刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局21日宣布，该国自10月15日起结束自今年2月以来实施的钴出口禁令，并于10月16日改为实行出口配额制度，直至另行 通知。 图片来源：视觉中国 卢阿贝亚说："我们希望钴价回到一个不仅能保证行业生存，而且能确保这一能源转型关键产业可持续发展的水平。" 据悉，刚果（金）是全球钴的主要供应国。据美国地质调查局数据，2024年，全球钴的陆地储量为1100万吨，主要集中在刚果（金）、澳大利亚、印尼、古 巴、菲律宾等国，其中刚果（金）储量最为丰富，储量达600万吨，占比55%，主要为高品位铜钴矿。2024年全球钴矿产量为29.0万吨。其中，刚果（金） 产量22.0万吨，占比达75.86%，为全球第一大钴矿供应国。 受刚果（金）的出口禁令影响，今年以来，全球钴市场供需格局显著改善，钴价触底回升。 据生意社数据，2025年年初，钴的价格为16.9万元/吨，此后价格呈现一路上扬态势。截至9月18日，钴的最新价格已突破27万元/吨，报价27.5万元/吨，相较 年初上涨62.7%。 有分析指出，2025年钴价格显著上涨，主要源于全球最大钴供应国刚果（金）自2月起实施钴产品临时出口禁令并多次延期，导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].