Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has lifted its cobalt export ban effective October 15, 2023, transitioning to an export quota system to regulate cobalt exports until further notice [1][4]. Group 1: Export Quota System - The DRC will allow mining companies to export over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of the year, with maximum annual export volumes set at 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [3][4]. - Export quotas will be allocated based on the historical export volumes of companies, and the DRC's regulatory authority will notify companies accordingly [3][4]. - 10% of the authorized export volume for 2026 and 2027 will be allocated for national strategic projects [4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Trends - The cobalt market has seen significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics due to the DRC's export ban, leading to a rebound in cobalt prices, which increased nearly 60% after the ban was announced [4][6]. - Cobalt prices have risen from 169,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of 2025 to over 275,000 CNY/ton by September 18, 2025, marking a 62.7% increase [6]. - The DRC's export restrictions have tightened global cobalt supply, while demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics continues to rise, further driving up prices [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about cobalt prices in the long term, with expectations that the DRC's export quota system will enhance its pricing power, potentially raising the price center [7]. - Forecasts suggest that cobalt prices could enter an upward cycle from 2025 to 2027, with price centers expected to exceed 350,000 CNY/ton during 2026-2027 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].