Industry Overview - On October 11, the Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Bureau of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ARECOMS) announced details of cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2023, calculated based on mining companies' export situations until the end of 2024 [1]. Commentary - The export quotas are primarily allocated to mining companies and the Congolese government platform, with no quotas for smelters. For the remainder of this year, the cobalt export quota is set at 18,100 tons; for 2026/27, the total export is 96,600 tons, of which 87,000 tons are basic quotas and 9,600 tons are strategic quotas from ARECOMS. Major companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources have received significant quotas, accounting for 62% of the total [2]. - The tightening supply is expected to drive up cobalt prices, with a strategic re-evaluation of cobalt's value occurring at this time. The total export quota for 2026/27 represents only 44% of the DRC's cobalt production in 2024, with the basic quota accounting for just 40%. The demand for cobalt is anticipated to increase due to the advantages of ternary batteries in high-end, long-lasting markets and the advancement of solid-state battery technology [2]. - The DRC's export ban aims to boost cobalt prices and prevent the low-cost outflow of strategic resources while enhancing international influence through resource control [2]. Supply Dynamics - A significant reduction in supply is expected to lead to larger price increases for raw materials. The DRC's cobalt production is projected to account for 76% of global supply in 2024, with a reduction of over 50% impacting global availability. As of October 11, cobalt intermediate products, MB cobalt, and metal cobalt prices have increased by 185%, 107%, and 123% respectively since February 24 [3]. - The pricing of cobalt products may be dominated by platforms that control spot cobalt raw materials, with a few platforms holding pricing power, potentially increasing price volatility. Glencore, the DRC government platform, and Eurasian Resources hold quotas of 20%, 17%, and 11% respectively [3]. Company Quotas - The following companies have been allocated export quotas for October to December 2025, with their respective basic quota shares and estimated quotas for 2026: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 1,300 tons in October, 2,600 tons in November, 2,600 tons in December, with a 35.9% share [5]. - Glencore: 785 tons in October, 1,570 tons in November, 1,570 tons in December, with a 21.7% share [5]. - Eurasian Resources: 425 tons in October, 850 tons in November, 850 tons in December, with an 11.7% share [5]. - The total quotas for all listed companies sum up to 18,125 tons for Q4 2025, with an estimated total of 87,000 tons for 2026 [6].