智通财经APP获悉，刚果民主共和国新任矿业部长路易斯·沃图姆近日接受采访时透露，该国每年因黄 金走私损失约60吨黄金，价值可能超过70亿美元。为夺回这些财富，他正推动建设新的黄金开采基地， 并强调当前有多个谈判正在进行，部分交易有望在不久后宣布。近期，国际金价持续攀高突破历史记 录，目前现货黄金逼近3800美元/盎司大关，而COMEX期金已突破3800美元，继续寻求新的价格高点。 沃图姆此前曾主导开发位于基巴利的非洲最大金矿，该矿现属巴里克矿业公司所有，他表示不仅与巴里 克等现有大型矿业公司洽谈，也为新进入者提供了空间。 尽管基巴利项目取得成功，但刚果东部地区黄金资源开发仍面临严峻挑战。该地区长期受冲突困扰，黄 金贸易多由贩运者和武装团体主导，大部分黄金经乌干达、卢旺达转运至阿联酋。当前金价接近历史高 位，60吨黄金的潜在价值对刚果这一贫穷国家而言是重要的收入来源。 沃图姆还曾参与艾芬豪矿业有限公司在刚果的铜、锌项目开发。他透露，目前正与美国就矿产、基础设 施和安全协议展开谈判，进展顺利。协议达成后，将推动更多美企与刚果进行直接商务对接，扩大合作 机会。 在解决历史纠纷方面，沃图姆表示将与该国主要铜、钴矿商展 ...

在全球钴库存临近见底的情况下，持续了7个月的钴出口禁令将于10月15日结束，配额制度将成为新规 则。作为全球钴资源核心供应国，刚果（金）的政策变动势必影响钴资源的供需再平衡。 9月22日，A股钴资源概念股普遍走高。业内人士判断，配额制度的推出符合预期，但未来两年的配额 规模并不足以满足下游需求，钴资源供应趋紧。 目前，我国企业正加速开拓海外钴资源开发、钴资源回收等多元化供给渠道，以应对全球钴产业链重构 的挑战。 配额制正式推出 9月21日，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局宣布，该国自10月15日起结束自今年2月22日以来实施的 钴出口禁令，并于10月16日改为实行出口配额制度，直至另行通知。 "报高没成交，报低怕吃亏。"上海钢联新能源事业部钴分析师白琼表示，"现货市场原料库存不多，整 体看涨为主，由于配额政策存在较多分配细节未明确，9月22日企业普遍暂停报价，观望为主，部分企 业试探报价，该情况还会持续数日。" 这一趋势基本与前期一致，在政策窗口临近、供应紧缺的情况下，大部分业者已经暂停报盘，且价格预 期持续上移。钴盐下游询盘依旧活跃，部分厂商仍存在零星补库需求，贸易商也有投机性囤货现象。部 分冶炼厂暂停报盘 ...

摘要 刚果金政府或倾向与欧美企业谈判，中资企业钴供应占比约 80%，政策 变化对其影响重大。2025 年中资大矿山产量提升，但前期禁令已致原 料累积，配额确定将显著影响市场。 嘉能可 KCC 项目或出售，潜在买家包括矿业巨头和美国资本，中美或在 钴领域展开竞争。嘉能可或借此向刚果政府施压，项目出售或难落入中 资企业之手。 美国计划收储 7,500 吨钴，供应商主要为嘉能可、住友和英科，产品为 合金级金属钴，主要用于高温合金等领域，或涉军工需求，旨在确保关 键材料供应链安全。 2025 年中国国内四氧化三钴需求保持高位，但受磷酸铁锂替代影响， 硫酸钴增量有限。大矿山产量提升增加原料供应压力，铜价高位也需关 注头部企业半成品产出。 海外氢氧化钴年产量约 2.2-2.3 万吨，中国国内产量至少是海外三倍。 2024 年中国总产能近 6 万吨，韩瑞一家产能就达 1.6 万吨，但受库存 和收储影响，价格低迷。 Q&A 刚果金政府可能延长钴出口禁令的传言对市场有何影响？ 刚果金再传变数 钴价何去何从 20250921 刚果金氢氧化钴原料预计难达 20 万吨，或维持在 18-19 万吨。欧洲市 场基础股交易因高库存表现平淡 ...

消息人士称，刚果民主共和国考虑至少延长两个月的钴出口禁令。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industries**: Rental, Express Delivery, Aviation, Chemical, Cobalt, Coal - **Companies**: China Shipbuilding Leasing, Bank of China Aviation Leasing, Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express, Huaxia Airlines, China Shenhua, Huayi Chemical, Wanhua, Hualu, Yangnong, Satellite Chemical, New Chemical, Huayou Cobalt, Likin, Shengtun, Jiayou International Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Labor Market Impact**: The U.S. labor market data has raised expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, increasing the likelihood to 75%, which is favorable for leasing companies like China Shipbuilding Leasing and Bank of China Aviation Leasing [1][2] 2. **Express Delivery Industry**: The political bureau meeting focused on capacity governance rather than production governance, which is expected to accelerate the anti-involution in the express delivery industry. Price increases are anticipated in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong, with recommended companies including Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express [1][4] 3. **Aviation Industry Challenges**: Despite efforts to combat market involution, the aviation industry faces skepticism regarding joint price increases due to high transparency of data. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines and major A-share airlines [1][5] 4. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector is experiencing a bottoming out, with PPI showing continuous negative growth. However, prices for certain chemicals like epoxy chloropropane and lithium carbonate are rising due to downstream replenishment [1][8][10] 5. **Cobalt Market Tightness**: The cobalt market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices expected to average 250,000 yuan/ton this year. Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Likin are recommended for investment [1][19][20] 6. **Coal Industry Developments**: China Shenhua's acquisition of National Energy Group assets is expected to enhance its strength and positively impact the coal sector. Current coal prices remain strong despite recent declines in stock performance [1][22][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Chemical Industry Profitability**: The chemical industry saw a revenue growth of 1.4% in June 2025, but profit growth was negative at -9%, indicating a widening profit decline despite revenue increases [1][12] 2. **Market Sentiment in Chemical Sector**: The increase in Penghua Chemical ETF shares by 1.1 billion yuan indicates a growing market interest in the chemical sector, despite it being at a relative bottom compared to other cyclical sectors [1][13] 3. **Potential for Price Stabilization**: The possibility of production limits in the chemical sector could help stabilize prices, as seen in past successful interventions [1][16] 4. **Investment Opportunities in New Materials**: Companies like Dongcai Technology and Xinzhou Bang are highlighted as key players in the new materials sector, particularly in the high-performance resin supply chain [1][17] 5. **Gold and Silver Market Dynamics**: Recent trends show that while industrial metals have risen, precious metals like gold have not seen similar increases, suggesting potential investment opportunities in gold stocks [1][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July 2024, the lithium ore market was in a supply - demand game. Holders were reluctant to sell, and lithium salt plants were cautious in purchasing. Lithium ore prices were still dominated by lithium carbonate demand [4]. - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production increased slightly month - on - month. Import volume was expected to be around 18,000 tons. Downstream production increased slightly, with more long - term contracts and customer - supplied orders, and weak spot demand [4]. - Lithium ore prices rose significantly, and the industry's overall profit increased. By July 31, SMM inventory decreased, but remained at a high level. Futures inventory declined sharply [4][6]. - In July, the prices of domestic industrial and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly. The futures price was mainly affected by policies, and the spot price followed but with limited supply - demand support [6]. - In August, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a double - increase trend, but the price may be under pressure. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 65,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [7]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The supply of cobalt salts decreased, and the demand was weak. The market still had room for decline [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - As of July 31, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 was 68,920 yuan/ton, with a 9.67% increase in July. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the warehouse receipt volume decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly compared to the previous month [2]. Price Overview - As of July 28, the average market price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, a 21.67% increase from the previous month. The average market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, a 21.31% increase from the previous month [6]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The price of cobalt products increased. The international cobalt price fluctuated downward, and the domestic production cost was adjusted accordingly [7]. Market Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with prices fluctuating between 63,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide is expected to move slightly higher in August, with a fluctuation range of 1,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton [17]. - The short - term market of cobalt salts may be slightly stronger. The price of cobalt sulfate is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt chloride is expected to be between 62,500 - 64,000 yuan/ton. The price of tricobalt tetroxide is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 210,000 - 225,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt oxide is expected to be between 190,000 - 205,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Supply - side Situation - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production was about 84,882 tons, a 4.84% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate increased by 5.74%. Lithium hydroxide production was about 22,800 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate decreased by 2.34% [41]. China's Production Cost and Profit - As of July 28, the average market price of imported lithium spodumene ore was 673 yuan/ton degree, the average market price of African SC5% was 530 US dollars/ton, and the average market price of Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was 850 US dollars/ton. The cost of cobalt sulfate continued to be under pressure, and the cost of tricobalt tetroxide fluctuated [53]. Import - Export - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.624 tons, mainly from Chile and imported through Shanghai. The export volume was 286.735 tons, mainly to Australia and exported from Hebei Province [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,482.343 tons, mainly from Indonesia and China, and imported through Jiangsu and Sichuan Provinces. The export volume was 6,260.074 tons, mainly to South Korea and Japan, and exported from Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Sichuan Provinces [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of tricobalt tetroxide was 0.004 tons, a 99.87% year - on - year decrease. The export volume was 161.732 tons, a 47.56% year - on - year decrease and a 51.62% month - on - month decrease [55][56]. Consumption - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively. Policy support was still expected [75]. - In June 2025, China's total lithium battery installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a 35.98% year - on - year increase and a 1.93% month - on - month increase. LFP battery installed capacity accounted for 81.44%, and NCM battery installed capacity accounted for 18.38% [79]. - In July 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate production was 310,000 tons, a 5.91% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary materials was 71,300 tons, a 5.94% month - on - month increase [82]. - In July 2025, China's ternary precursor production was 68,900 tons, a 0.06% month - on - month increase and a 0.14% year - on - year increase [104]. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 141,700 tons, including 52,000 tons in smelters, 45,900 tons in downstream enterprises, and 43,900 tons in other inventories [120].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (SH603993) is facing a temporary suspension of cobalt metal deliveries by its wholly-owned subsidiary IXM due to a force majeure event related to the extension of a cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1][3] Group 1: Company Operations - IXM's business covers over 80 countries across Asia, Europe, South America, and North America, leveraging strategic synergies between trading and mining sectors [2] - In 2024, IXM is projected to complete a physical trading volume of 4 to 4.5 million tons, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.353 billion yuan [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum is the world's largest cobalt producer, expecting to produce 114,200 tons of cobalt in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106% [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended for an additional three months to alleviate market pressure from high inventory levels and to create conditions for future market regulation [3][4] - Since the initial ban in February, cobalt prices have risen significantly, from 162,500 yuan per ton on February 24 to 245,000 yuan per ton on July 2 [4][5] - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt production, with an estimated output of 207,400 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.56% [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that continued restrictions on cobalt exports from the DRC may lead to a shift from a surplus to a potential shortage in the cobalt market by the early 2030s [5] - By 2025, China's refined cobalt production is expected to meet domestic consumption and export needs without creating excess inventory, with a projected output of 144,000 tons [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the temporary ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months due to high market inventory levels, impacting all forms of cobalt mining activities within the country [1] Supply Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominates the global cobalt supply chain, holding 55% of the world's cobalt reserves, estimated at 6 million tons in 2024, and accounting for 76.4% of the global annual production of 22,000 tons [3] - China, as the largest consumer of cobalt, heavily relies on the DRC, importing 62,000 tons of cobalt intermediate products in 2024, with 62,000 tons coming from the DRC, representing nearly the entire share [3] - The extension of the export ban will directly affect raw material supply from June to December, posing a significant risk of raw material shortages for domestic cobalt refining enterprises in China [3] Price Trends - Cobalt prices have experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from a high of 570,000 yuan per ton in March 2022 to a historical low of 160,000 yuan per ton in February this year [4] - Following the first export ban, electrolytic cobalt prices rebounded to 250,000 yuan per ton but have since stabilized around 230,000 yuan per ton [4] - The current extension of the ban is expected to impact approximately 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC over a seven-month period, which is over 40% of the global annual cobalt production for 2024, potentially shifting the market from oversupply to shortage [4] - On June 23, the price of cobalt surged by 22,000 yuan in a single day, reaching 256,000 yuan per ton, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade, with other cobalt products also seeing price increases [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt market is significantly influenced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which accounts for approximately 76% of global cobalt supply, while Indonesia's share has risen to 11% [1][3] - In 2024, global refined cobalt supply is expected to increase to about 247,000 tons, with China contributing 78% of this supply [1][4] - The demand for refined cobalt is projected to be around 212,000 tons, primarily driven by 3C products, with China accounting for 69% of this demand [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The DRC's ban on cobalt exports is expected to shift the market from a surplus to a tight balance by 2025, with a projected supply drop of nearly 30,000 tons due to the ban [1][4][19] - China's refined cobalt production capacity is heavily reliant on imports, with a 53% year-on-year increase in imports expected in 2024, predominantly from the DRC [1][5] - The demand for cobalt in the battery sector (including electric vehicles and 3C products) is anticipated to grow at a rate of 9%, outpacing the supply growth of 5% [1][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - Cobalt raw materials are primarily sourced from copper-cobalt and nickel-cobalt ores, with a notable increase in cobalt production as a byproduct due to rising copper prices [2] - The DRC's ban has created a supply gap of approximately 73,000 tons, representing 23% of global supply, leading to a surge in cobalt prices [2][14] - China's electrolytic cobalt production is expected to rise from about 10,000 tons in 2024 to 48,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% [1][9] Price and Profitability Trends - The average profit margin for electrolytic cobalt was 23% in Q1 2024, but is expected to drop to around 5% in Q1 2025 due to the DRC ban [17] - Cobalt prices have seen significant fluctuations, with sulfate prices rising from 27,500 CNY/ton to 50,000 CNY/ton, and cobalt oxide prices increasing from 111,000 CNY/ton to 215,500 CNY/ton [13][14] Challenges and Opportunities - China faces challenges due to reduced imports from the DRC, but its strong processing capabilities may help maintain its position in the cobalt market [8] - The global steel industry is projected to experience its first negative growth in 2025, with total supply expected to decrease by 12,000 tons [6] Future Projections - By 2025, China's electrolytic cobalt supply is expected to stabilize around 50,000 tons, despite the DRC's export ban [9] - The demand for high-temperature alloys, which account for about 45% of electrolytic cobalt consumption, is expected to grow at a rate of 10% to 15% due to advancements in aerospace and military technologies [10][31] Export Dynamics - China's electrolytic cobalt exports have shown a significant increase, with a 116% year-on-year growth in 2024, and are expected to continue rising in 2025 [11][18] - The export market is shifting, with a notable increase in exports to the Netherlands, Taiwan, and the United States [11] Conclusion - The DRC's export ban is a critical factor reshaping the global cobalt market, leading to increased prices and supply challenges, while China's processing capabilities and demand growth present both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in the cobalt supply chain [12][19][23]

刚果民主共和国部长：正在审查为期四个月的钴出口禁令。 ...