【版权声明】秉承互联网开放、包容的精神，化工网欢迎各方(自)媒体、机构转载、引用我们原创内 容，但要严格注明来源化工网；同时，我们倡导尊重与保护知识产权，如发现本站文章存在版权问题， 烦请将版权疑问、授权证明、版权证明、联系方式等，发邮件至info@netsun.com，我们将第一时间核 实、处理。 刚果金公布，2025年6月21日起，战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施，鉴于市 场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源 自采矿的钴出口，无论其来自工业、半工业、小规模还是手工开采。2025年2月22当地出台暂停钴出口 的第001/ARECOMS/2025号决定。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the cobalt industry, specifically focusing on the recent cobalt export quota policy implemented by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [1][3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cobalt Export Quota**: The DRC has established a cobalt export quota system, with a remaining quota of 18,100 tons for 2025 and a total quota of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, which represents only 44% of the DRC's estimated cobalt production for 2024 [1][3]. - **Impact on Global Supply**: The quota is expected to significantly reduce global cobalt supply by over 40%, which will likely support an increase in cobalt prices [3][11]. - **Price Increases**: Since February 24, cobalt intermediate prices have surged by 185%, with overseas MB cobalt metal and domestic metal cobalt prices increasing by 107% and 123%, respectively [1][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is expected to be dominated by a few platforms, including Glencore, the DRC government, and Eurasian Resources, which may lead to increased price volatility and elasticity [1][7]. - **Strategic Intent**: The DRC aims to enhance its international bargaining power and ensure long-term high cobalt prices through quantity control measures [8]. Additional Important Content - **Recent Import Trends**: In August, China's imports of wet-process intermediate products from the DRC fell by 91% year-on-year and 64% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of significant decline [2][13]. - **Domestic Production and Demand**: Domestic metal cobalt production in China decreased by 36% year-on-year in August, while the production of cobalt sulfate and cobalt oxide increased by 6% and 38%, respectively [14]. - **Company Focus**: Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, which have wet-process nickel-cobalt refining capacity in Indonesia, and DRC-based companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Shengton Mining that have received quotas [15][16]. - **Future Price Expectations**: The market anticipates that cobalt prices will stabilize around 400,000 yuan per ton, which is crucial for long-term valuation models and profit forecasts for companies in the industry [12][11]. Conclusion - The DRC's new cobalt export quota policy is poised to reshape the global cobalt supply landscape, leading to significant price increases and altering market dynamics. Companies with strategic positions in this evolving market are likely to benefit from the anticipated price elasticity and reduced supply.

Industry Overview - On October 11, the Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Bureau of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ARECOMS) announced details of cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2023, calculated based on mining companies' export situations until the end of 2024 [1]. Commentary - The export quotas are primarily allocated to mining companies and the Congolese government platform, with no quotas for smelters. For the remainder of this year, the cobalt export quota is set at 18,100 tons; for 2026/27, the total export is 96,600 tons, of which 87,000 tons are basic quotas and 9,600 tons are strategic quotas from ARECOMS. Major companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources have received significant quotas, accounting for 62% of the total [2]. - The tightening supply is expected to drive up cobalt prices, with a strategic re-evaluation of cobalt's value occurring at this time. The total export quota for 2026/27 represents only 44% of the DRC's cobalt production in 2024, with the basic quota accounting for just 40%. The demand for cobalt is anticipated to increase due to the advantages of ternary batteries in high-end, long-lasting markets and the advancement of solid-state battery technology [2]. - The DRC's export ban aims to boost cobalt prices and prevent the low-cost outflow of strategic resources while enhancing international influence through resource control [2]. Supply Dynamics - A significant reduction in supply is expected to lead to larger price increases for raw materials. The DRC's cobalt production is projected to account for 76% of global supply in 2024, with a reduction of over 50% impacting global availability. As of October 11, cobalt intermediate products, MB cobalt, and metal cobalt prices have increased by 185%, 107%, and 123% respectively since February 24 [3]. - The pricing of cobalt products may be dominated by platforms that control spot cobalt raw materials, with a few platforms holding pricing power, potentially increasing price volatility. Glencore, the DRC government platform, and Eurasian Resources hold quotas of 20%, 17%, and 11% respectively [3]. Company Quotas - The following companies have been allocated export quotas for October to December 2025, with their respective basic quota shares and estimated quotas for 2026: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 1,300 tons in October, 2,600 tons in November, 2,600 tons in December, with a 35.9% share [5]. - Glencore: 785 tons in October, 1,570 tons in November, 1,570 tons in December, with a 21.7% share [5]. - Eurasian Resources: 425 tons in October, 850 tons in November, 850 tons in December, with an 11.7% share [5]. - The total quotas for all listed companies sum up to 18,125 tons for Q4 2025, with an estimated total of 87,000 tons for 2026 [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) government's new cobalt resource management policies on the cobalt industry, particularly affecting Chinese enterprises and the global cobalt supply chain [1][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **New Cobalt Policies**: The DRC has implemented a quota system and export licensing to enhance tax revenue, prevent smuggling, and promote local industry development. This has temporarily restricted raw material imports for Chinese companies, affecting their strategic reserves and smelting operations [1][10]. - **Export License Requirements**: Companies must pay mining privilege fees and meet several conditions, including prepayment, quota verification, product traceability, and compliance with ESG standards to activate export licenses [1][5]. - **Impact on Chinese Companies**: Companies without their own mines, such as Hanrui and Tengyuan Cobalt, have struggled to obtain quotas due to regulatory non-compliance. However, EDC and STL are allowed to process artisanal mining products [1][8][10]. - **Hanrui's Production Capacity**: Hanrui has a cobalt production capacity of 5,000 tons in the DRC and is seeking to export independently of the strategic quota to alleviate supply shortages. The future of Hanrui's production depends on pricing and export licensing [1][9]. - **Global Cobalt Market Dynamics**: Major suppliers like Glencore, Exxon, and Eurasian Resources dominate the market, holding at least 70% market share. China may increasingly rely on Indonesian production to meet demand, but a supply gap is expected by 2026 [1][11]. - **Supply Shortages**: A projected cobalt supply gap of approximately 20,000 tons is anticipated in 2026, potentially widening in 2027. The demand from 3C products is expected to be more resilient to price increases compared to electric vehicle batteries [2][17]. - **Cobalt Pricing and Demand Elasticity**: The price sensitivity of 3C products is higher, with procurement continuing at prices between 450,000 to 500,000 CNY per ton. In contrast, electric vehicle manufacturers may reduce purchases if prices exceed 450,000 CNY per ton [18]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Management**: Chinese companies have begun to deplete cobalt inventories since June, with expectations to consume existing stocks by the end of 2025. The current inventory levels are around 70,000 to 80,000 tons [12][23]. - **Safety Stock Levels**: Historically, companies maintained about three months of safety stock, but due to current supply constraints, many have reduced this to around one month [24]. - **Potential for Future Policy Changes**: The DRC government is unlikely to relax mineral quotas in the near term, as they are focused on strict enforcement of the new policies to avoid triggering excessive taxation [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the implications of the DRC's new cobalt policies on the industry and the challenges faced by companies, particularly those in China.

根据周六的最新消息，刚果民主共和国的矿业监管部门宣布，持续了8个月的钴出口禁令将于下周（10月16日）解除。 作为背景，刚果（金）供应了全球约四分之三的钴，因不满钴价太低于今年2月22日开始实施出口禁令，随后又在6月延长3个月，直到9月 最终决定实施配额制。禁令出台时，基准钴价已跌破每磅10美元，此后价格已经翻倍。该国的主要出口产品氢氧化钴价格更是翻了逾三倍。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 ARECOMS特别指出，未来将可能根据矿业公司"对该国战略项目发展的贡献度"，特别是在本土开发高附加值钴加工产能的贡献， 来 调整 授予各矿企的出口配额 。 新规同时还在未来两年的出口配额外设置了10%的"战略配额"，由ARECOMS"全权分配"。 据悉，周六一同披露的还有各大矿商的出口配额。 ARECOMS介绍称，这一配额按照各公司截至2024年底的三年出口量按比例计算。其中前两大钴生产商分别获批在今年底前出口6500吨和 3925吨的配额。 对于合规运营商，2025年12月获批的配额将自动转化为2026年的各月配额。 随着钴价回升，该国的矿业监管机构宣布准备有限恢复出口。 今年剩余时间仅批准出口 ...

Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will lift an 8-month cobalt export ban on October 16, 2023, due to rising cobalt prices [1] - The DRC supplies approximately 75% of the world's cobalt, and the export ban was initially implemented in February 2023 when cobalt prices fell below $10 per pound [1] - The new export quota system will allow for a limited export of over 18,000 tons for the remainder of the year, with a maximum annual export of 96,600 tons for the next two years, which is less than half of last year's production [1] Regulatory Changes - The new export quota regulations will require companies to pay a 10% royalty fee on the sales value before shipping cobalt [1] - Companies that fail to meet export quotas or violate environmental or tax regulations may have their export quotas revoked [1] Strategic Adjustments - Future export quotas may be adjusted based on mining companies' contributions to the development of strategic projects in the DRC, particularly in enhancing local high-value cobalt processing capacity [2] - A 10% "strategic quota" will be established for the next two years, which will be allocated at the discretion of the DRC's strategic mineral market regulatory agency (ARECOMS) [2] Export Quotas - ARECOMS has disclosed the export quotas for major mining companies, calculated based on their export volumes until the end of 2024 [3] - The two largest cobalt producers have been approved to export 6,500 tons and 3,925 tons, respectively, by the end of this year [3] - For compliant operators, the quotas approved for December 2025 will automatically convert into monthly quotas for 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The new mining minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Louis Watum, revealed that the country loses approximately 60 tons of gold annually due to smuggling, valued at over $7 billion [1] - Watum is advocating for the establishment of new gold mining bases and is currently in negotiations for several deals, with some expected to be announced soon [1] - The international gold price has recently surged, with spot gold nearing $3,800 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing $3,800, indicating a potential for increased revenue from gold resources in the DRC [1] Group 2 - Watum is engaging in dialogue with major copper and cobalt miners, including Glencore, Eurasian Resources Group, and China Molybdenum, to resolve historical disputes [2] - Discussions are ongoing regarding new cobalt export quotas and the development of lithium assets, aiming to attract companies like Zijin Mining, AVZ Minerals, and KoBold Metals [2] - The DRC is attempting to transform its mineral resources into sustainable economic benefits while addressing historical mining disputes and promoting long-term stability in the mining sector [2]

Group 1 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end on October 15, transitioning to an export quota system, which is expected to impact global cobalt supply and demand balance [1][2] - DRC holds 55% of the world's cobalt reserves, with a projected production of 220,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of global output [2] - The introduction of the quota system is anticipated to be insufficient to meet downstream demand over the next two years, leading to tighter cobalt supply [1][3] Group 2 - China's refined cobalt production accounts for approximately 80% of the global market, with recent price increases observed in the spot market for cobalt-related products [3] - Analysts indicate that the current market is characterized by low inventory levels, leading to a bullish outlook on prices, despite some companies pausing quotes in anticipation of the new quota policy [3][4] - The DRC's export ban has resulted in a significant reduction in global cobalt inventory, with prices rebounding by over 63% since the lowest point in February [5][6] Group 3 - The new export quota allows for over 18,000 tons of cobalt to be exported by DRC mines for the remainder of the year, with future quotas set at 96,600 tons annually for 2026 and 2027 [7] - The goal of the new quota system is to reduce global cobalt inventory to approximately one month's demand, contrasting with the typical three to four months of inventory held by major smelters [7][8] - The anticipated supply tightness in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be exacerbated by the long shipping times for cobalt shipments from DRC [7][8] Group 4 - Chinese companies are actively seeking to diversify cobalt supply sources, with significant investments in Indonesian cobalt projects, which have shown promising production increases [9] - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly viable, with companies like Grinm and others establishing recycling facilities to enhance resource recovery [10] - The expected rise in battery recycling rates by 2026 and 2027 is projected to alleviate some of the supply pressures on cobalt resources [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the cobalt industry, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where Chinese enterprises hold approximately 80% of the cobalt supply, equating to about 150,000 to 160,000 tons [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Government Negotiations**: The DRC government appears to favor negotiations with Western companies over Chinese firms, which could diminish the priority of Chinese enterprises in future discussions [3][4]. - **Cobalt Export Ban Rumors**: There are rumors that the DRC government may extend the cobalt export ban, which has not been officially confirmed. This uncertainty is critical for Chinese companies heavily invested in the region [2][3]. - **KCC Project Developments**: Glencore's KCC project in the DRC is reportedly in talks for potential sale, with interest from major mining companies and U.S. capital. This could lead to increased competition between the U.S. and China in the cobalt sector [4][5]. - **U.S. Cobalt Stockpiling**: The U.S. plans to stockpile approximately 7,500 tons of cobalt over the next five years, primarily sourcing from Glencore, Sumitomo, and Umicore. This initiative aims to secure supply chains for critical materials, potentially impacting global cobalt prices [5][6]. - **Chinese Domestic Demand**: In 2025, domestic demand for cobalt in China is expected to remain high, particularly for cobalt tetraoxide, although the growth of cobalt sulfate may be limited due to competition from lithium iron phosphate [7][8]. - **Cobalt Supply Pressure**: Increased production from major mines is expected to exert pressure on raw material supply, with copper prices also influencing the output of semi-finished products [7][8]. - **Hydroxide Production**: The annual production of cobalt hydroxide overseas is estimated at 22,000 to 23,000 tons, while domestic production in China is at least three times that amount, with total capacity nearing 60,000 tons in 2024 [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory and Import Trends**: China's cobalt product imports have sharply declined, with a significant inventory that needs to be digested. It is estimated that 32,000 to 35,000 tons of inventory will need to be processed in the coming months [11][12]. - **Price Dynamics**: Despite high inventory levels, the price of cobalt trioxide has not significantly decreased, largely due to China's strong production capabilities in 3C lithium battery materials [12][19]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The evolving international rules and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are likely to impact Chinese enterprises' roles in the DRC mining sector [14][19]. - **Future Price Predictions**: Prices are expected to rise due to a supply vacuum, with projections suggesting a potential increase to 350,000 RMB, although this may be tempered by the need to digest existing high-cost inventory [19][26]. Conclusion The cobalt market is facing significant changes driven by geopolitical dynamics, supply chain strategies, and domestic demand fluctuations. The DRC's policy shifts and the U.S. stockpiling efforts are critical factors that will shape the future landscape of the cobalt industry.

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo is considering extending its cobalt export ban for at least two more months [1] Group 1 - The potential extension of the cobalt export ban may impact global supply chains and pricing for cobalt, a critical component in battery production [1] - The current ban has already affected the market, leading to increased prices and supply shortages [1]