钴专家交流 20251008 摘要 钴原料价格从去年底 5.4 美元/磅涨至 15.5-16 美元/磅，涨幅近三倍， 带动硫酸钴和金属钴价格大幅上涨。成本预期是主要驱动因素，禁运措 施若不采取，全产业链将低位运行。 中国钴行业自 2025 年 6 月起加速消化库存，预计年底仍将持续。若按 每月 8,000-9,000 吨的速度消耗，未来钴产业链仍需处理约 4 万吨库存。 当前供应短缺下，配额制度难以导致价格明显下滑，或将持续上涨。 以上。而即使每年 9 万多吨的配额完全给中国，加上印尼 4 万吨和回收 2 万吨， 也无法满足这一需求。因此，中国钴产业链已进入供应紧缺状态。 刚果政府在实施钴出口配额制度时有哪些具体政策和细节？ 刚果政府可能会收取一些费用，包括监管费用和预付费用。此外，33 个含钴开 采项目中的 27 家公司需要获得出口许可证才能拿到配额。若市场出现失衡， 刚果政府将按季度调整配额。这意味着如果供应短缺严重，可以增加季度配额； 反之，如果价格暴跌且供应过剩，则可能减少季度配额。然而，由于走私或其 他渠道运输货物的可能性较小，因此第一种情况更为可能。 中国企业如何应对刚果金新的政策变化？ 刚果金实 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

格隆汇9月24日丨恒邦股份(002237.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司无金属钴的生产。 ...

Group 1 - Cobalt prices have surged significantly in 2023, rising from 169,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 272,500 yuan/ton by September 16, marking a 61.25% increase [1] - The increase in cobalt prices is attributed to a tightening supply due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban and rising demand from industries such as electric vehicles and consumer electronics [1][2] - The global cobalt production in 2024 is projected to be 290,000 tons, with the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for 76% of this production [1] Group 2 - Analysts expect cobalt prices to maintain strength in the short term if the Democratic Republic of Congo shifts to export quota management after lifting the ban [2] - The demand for cobalt is anticipated to grow further due to the ongoing development of new technologies in sectors like 5G, AI, and IoT [2] - Companies are focusing on enhancing collaboration with downstream customers and exploring new market opportunities to capitalize on the rising demand [2] Group 3 - The rise in cobalt prices has benefited companies with comprehensive supply chain capabilities, such as Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group, which reported a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 60.07% year-on-year increase [2] - The cobalt price increase has led to a shift in market dynamics, with upstream resource providers gaining more power while downstream smelting companies face significant cost pressures [3] - The current market conditions are prompting companies to pursue vertical integration strategies and invest in cobalt-free battery technology, potentially reshaping the industry's demand landscape [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of the recent 232 tariffs on copper, which do not include refined copper, leading to a significant drop in US copper prices. The week saw a decline in copper prices with LME copper down 2.51%, SHFE copper down 1.07%, and US copper down 23.45% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in downstream copper demand, with the copper rod operating rate increasing by 2.36 percentage points to 71.73% [5]. - The report suggests monitoring the supply disruptions in Chile and the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes lower-than-expected job vacancies in the US and mixed employment data, indicating a cautious economic outlook [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 4.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.68 percentage points [12]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper prices fell by 2.51%, while SHFE copper prices decreased by 1.07%. LME copper inventory increased by 10.33% [26]. - The report notes a copper smelting profit of -2408 CNY/ton, indicating a narrowing loss [26]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices dropped by 4.12%, and SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.33%. The report indicates a decrease in aluminum smelting profit to 4116 CNY/ton, down 7.71% [37]. Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 3.30%, and SHFE lead prices fell by 1.48%. LME zinc prices dropped by 4.59%, while SHFE zinc prices decreased by 2.19% [52]. - The report highlights a smelting profit of 346 CNY/ton for zinc, with mining profits down 6.47% to 6884 CNY/ton [52]. Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 5.10%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 2.47%. LME nickel prices dropped by 4.08%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 2.83% [66]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.13% to 71350 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 4.04% to 65670 CNY/ton [83]. - The report indicates a smelting profit of 862 CNY/ton for lithium from spodumene, while the profit from lithium from lepidolite was -4608 CNY/ton [83]. Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices surged by 11.29% to 276000 CNY/ton, with significant increases in cobalt smelting profits [96]. 4. Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various non-ferrous metal stocks, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the market [12]. 5. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the PE_TTM for the non-ferrous sector is 20.54, with a decrease of 0.88, while the PB_LF is 2.37, down 0.11 [21].

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the cobalt industry, particularly the impact of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) extending its cobalt export ban for an additional three months starting June 22, 2025, to manage high cobalt inventory levels in China [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Dynamics**: The initial export ban led to a nearly 100% increase in cobalt raw material prices, rising from $5.6 per pound to over $12 per pound, while metal cobalt prices increased approximately 50%, from $10 to $15.2 per pound [2]. - **Impact on Chinese Companies**: Despite an increase in cobalt raw material imports in the four months prior to the ban, Chinese companies are expected to face raw material shortages post-July, potentially leading to production halts in small to medium enterprises and reduced capacity in larger firms [1][2]. - **Future Price Trends**: Cobalt prices are anticipated to experience two phases: short-term fluctuations due to DRC policies and potential price increases from late July to mid-August due to insufficient raw material inventories [4]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Current supply growth outpaces demand growth, indicating that the fundamental supply-demand balance will not change significantly in the short term [4][5]. - **Inventory Levels**: The industry currently holds approximately 70,000 to 80,000 tons of inventory, with about 50% allocated to raw materials. If prices on the Wuxi electronic market rise to 240,000-250,000 RMB, profit-taking may occur, impacting project timelines [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Cobalt Export Quota**: The DRC's monthly export quota of 10,000 tons is deemed insufficient for maintaining supply-demand balance, with recommendations to increase it to 12,000-13,000 tons or supplement with Indonesian MHP [2][13]. - **Downstream Impact**: Rising prices of ternary materials will negatively affect downstream industries, particularly in low-nickel production, limiting growth potential in lower-end vehicle applications [12]. - **Future Production from Indonesia**: Indonesia's MHP production is projected to exceed 40,000 tons in 2025 and could reach 80,000-90,000 tons by 2027, which may help alleviate supply constraints [15]. - **Electric Vehicle Battery Costs**: The rising costs of cobalt resources may lead to increased production costs for electric vehicles, particularly affecting the adoption of ternary lithium batteries in mid to high-end vehicles [10][22]. Conclusion - The DRC's extended export ban on cobalt is a significant factor influencing the cobalt market, with potential implications for pricing, supply chain dynamics, and production capacities in China and beyond. The industry must navigate these challenges while adapting to changing market conditions and inventory levels.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 results with a significant increase in net profit, driven by growth in the copper and cobalt segments despite a decline in revenue and sales volume [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.05% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 24.97% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 3.928 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 87.82% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.99% [1]. Segment Performance - The increase in net profit by 1.874 billion yuan year-on-year was primarily due to a gross profit increase of 4.376 billion yuan, attributed to the copper and cobalt segments [2]. - In Q1 2025, the prices for cathode copper and metallic cobalt were 9,352 USD/ton and 11.9 USD/pound, showing year-on-year changes of +10.8% and -11.9%, respectively [2]. - The production of copper and cobalt in Q1 2025 was 170,600 tons and 30,400 tons, representing year-on-year increases of 15.6% and 20.7% [2]. - Despite significant year-on-year production growth, the sales volume of copper and cobalt decreased quarter-on-quarter by 43.4% and 16.7% to 124,000 tons and 24,000 tons, respectively [2]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to acquire 100% of Lumina Gold for 581 million CAD, which includes the Cangrejos gold project in Ecuador with substantial resources [3]. - The Cangrejos project has a resource estimate of 1.376 billion tons with an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold [3]. - The project is expected to have a lifespan of 26 years and will be developed in three phases, with an initial capacity of 30,000 tons per day [3]. - The company aims to achieve annual production targets of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons of copper, 90,000 to 100,000 tons of cobalt, and over 10,000 tons of niobium by 2028 [3]. Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 14.975 billion, 17.521 billion, and 20.035 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.81, and 0.93 yuan [4]. - The projected PE ratios based on the latest stock price are 10X, 9X, and 8X for the respective years [4].