Group 1 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end on October 15, transitioning to an export quota system, which is expected to impact global cobalt supply and demand balance [1][2] - DRC holds 55% of the world's cobalt reserves, with a projected production of 220,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of global output [2] - The introduction of the quota system is anticipated to be insufficient to meet downstream demand over the next two years, leading to tighter cobalt supply [1][3] Group 2 - China's refined cobalt production accounts for approximately 80% of the global market, with recent price increases observed in the spot market for cobalt-related products [3] - Analysts indicate that the current market is characterized by low inventory levels, leading to a bullish outlook on prices, despite some companies pausing quotes in anticipation of the new quota policy [3][4] - The DRC's export ban has resulted in a significant reduction in global cobalt inventory, with prices rebounding by over 63% since the lowest point in February [5][6] Group 3 - The new export quota allows for over 18,000 tons of cobalt to be exported by DRC mines for the remainder of the year, with future quotas set at 96,600 tons annually for 2026 and 2027 [7] - The goal of the new quota system is to reduce global cobalt inventory to approximately one month's demand, contrasting with the typical three to four months of inventory held by major smelters [7][8] - The anticipated supply tightness in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be exacerbated by the long shipping times for cobalt shipments from DRC [7][8] Group 4 - Chinese companies are actively seeking to diversify cobalt supply sources, with significant investments in Indonesian cobalt projects, which have shown promising production increases [9] - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly viable, with companies like Grinm and others establishing recycling facilities to enhance resource recovery [10] - The expected rise in battery recycling rates by 2026 and 2027 is projected to alleviate some of the supply pressures on cobalt resources [10]