Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

五矿证券近日发布有色月跟踪：刚果金配额锁死全球钴原料供应，预计锐减至20万吨，结合回收的量预 计，2025年全球钴元素供应为20.6万吨，2026-2027年分别为21.4、21.6万吨；全球钴消费仍维持一定的 增速，根据历史增速测算，我们预计2026/2027年全球钴消费将达到22.1和23.1万吨，钴将面临刚性短 缺。 以下为研究报告摘要： 刚果金配额落地，年度出口量不足10万吨。刚果（金）于10月10日出台了新的配额管理制度以及配额方 案，以取代之前的钴出口禁令，2026/2027年各出口9.66万吨，其中8.7万吨为基础配额，9,600吨为 ARECOMS战略配额。洛阳钼业、嘉能可、欧亚资源等矿企获得主要配额，当地钴冶炼厂无直接配额。 供需刚性短缺，价格或再上新台阶。刚果金配额锁死全球钴原料供应，预计锐减至20万吨，结合回收的 量预计，2025年全球钴元素供应为20.6万吨，2026-2027年分别为21.4、21.6万吨；全球钴消费仍维持一 定的增速，根据历史增速测算，我们预计2026/2027年全球钴消费将达到22.1和23.1万吨，钴将面临刚性 短缺。 全产业链库存持续消耗，未来两年刚果金以外地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, has raised a net amount of 5.204 billion yuan through its initial public offering, primarily aimed at expanding production capacity and upgrading technology for cobalt and nickel products [2]. Group 1: Fund Utilization - The raised funds are allocated for projects including the annual production of 20,000 tons of cobalt and 10,000 tons of nickel, along with the technological upgrade of related production facilities [2]. - Specific construction projects include production lines for cobalt (39,500 tons), copper (30,000 tons), nickel (60,000 tons), manganese (21,820 tons), and lithium carbonate (20,000 tons) [2]. Group 2: Current Production Capacity - As of now, the company has achieved a production capacity of 31,500 tons for cobalt, 10,000 tons for nickel, 10,000 tons for manganese, 5,000 tons for lithium carbonate, and 60,000 tons for copper [2]. - The project benefits are expected to gradually materialize as production capacity is realized, with the company planning to advance capacity expansion in an orderly manner based on resource supply, market conditions, and product demand [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic cooperation agreement signed between Xiamen Tungsten New Energy and Greeenme, aimed at enhancing their partnership in the supply chain of battery materials to meet the growing global demand for high-energy-density battery materials [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Agreement - On October 25, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy announced the signing of a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Greeenme [1]. - The agreement focuses on leveraging both companies' strengths in key metal resource recycling, raw material supply, technology research and development, and market expansion [1]. - The goal is to address global market challenges and enhance corporate efficiency through long-term stable cooperation [1]. Group 2: Product Supply Collaboration - Both companies agreed to establish a long-term partnership for the supply chain of battery materials used in various sectors, including consumer electronics, power, low-altitude aircraft, eVTOL, AI, and robotics [1]. - The materials involved include ternary materials for lithium batteries, lithium cobalt oxide, solid-state lithium battery materials, semi-solid lithium battery materials, and lithium-rich manganese-based products [1]. Group 3: Supply Volume and Forecast - From 2026 to 2028, Greeenme is expected to supply Xiamen Tungsten New Energy with 150,000 tons of various battery raw materials and products annually [4]. - This includes approximately 36,000 tons/year of cobalt chloride, 36,000 tons/year of nickel sulfate, 18,000 tons/year of cobalt oxide, 36,000 tons/year of ternary precursors, and 24,000 tons/year of lithium carbonate/lithium phosphate, all including recycled materials [4]. - The total supply over three years is projected to be 450,000 tons [4].

Summary of Tengyuan Cobalt Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tengyuan Cobalt Industry - **Industry**: New Energy Battery Materials - **Main Products**: Cobalt and Copper - **Current Capacity**: 60,000 tons of copper in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with plans to expand to 90,000 tons. Cobalt production currently at 31,500 tons, with a target of 22,000 to 24,000 tons for the year 2025 [2][3][4]. Key Financial Performance - **Q3 2025 Revenue**: 2.22 billion yuan, a 32% year-over-year increase - **Net Profit**: 280 million yuan, a 48% year-over-year increase - **Total Revenue for First Three Quarters**: 5.75 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-over-year [3]. Production and Sales Insights - **Cobalt Products**: Cobalt chloride and cobalt tetraoxide account for over 60% of sales, driven by demand for lithium-ion batteries [2][10]. - **Copper Production**: Annual target set conservatively at 50,000 to 55,000 tons due to earlier disruptions from power shortages [4][12]. - **Inventory**: Approximately 3.4 billion yuan in inventory, with cobalt raw material stock among the top tier in the industry [4]. Profitability and Margins - **Cobalt Gross Margin**: Slight increase in Q3, while copper gross margin saw a slight decline due to rising raw material prices and transportation costs [9]. - **Expected Gross Margin**: Anticipated to be between 20% to 30%, potentially reaching 30% to 40% with inventory gains [4][12]. Supply Chain and Resource Management - **Raw Material Supply**: Actively negotiating with DRC government for cobalt quotas and ensuring stable raw material supply through multiple channels [4][14]. - **Recycling Initiatives**: Dominating the market with over 70% of high-cobalt scrap procurement, expected to account for 30% to 50% of total raw material needs by 2026 [4][14]. Future Growth and Expansion Plans - **Copper Capacity Expansion**: Plans to add 20,000 tons of copper capacity by the end of 2026, with an additional 10,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [18][16]. - **Market Outlook**: Anticipated copper prices may reach $10,000 per ton, boosting profit contributions significantly [4][16]. Strategic Insights - **Technological Edge**: All production processes are self-developed, with a fixed asset return rate of 23.27%, significantly above the industry average [6]. - **Supply Chain Advantages**: Strong relationships with downstream clients in various sectors, including new technologies like AI and drones [7][15]. Market and Pricing Outlook - **Price Predictions**: Short-term price expectations range from 28,000 to 35,000 yuan, with potential extreme fluctuations by the end of Q4 [24][27]. - **Industry Trends**: General consensus in the industry suggests a price peak around year-end, with companies likely to release inventory [23]. Conclusion Tengyuan Cobalt Industry is positioned strongly within the new energy battery materials sector, with robust financial performance, strategic growth plans, and a focus on sustainable resource management. The company is well-prepared to navigate market fluctuations and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the cobalt and copper markets.

Core Viewpoint - The announcement indicates a strategic partnership between the company and Greeenmei, focusing on the supply of battery raw materials and collaborative efforts in product development and capacity planning from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The company signed a Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement with Greeenmei on October 24, 2025 [1] - Greeenmei is expected to supply 150,000 tons of various battery raw materials and products annually from 2026 to 2028, totaling 450,000 tons over three years [1] - The supplied materials will include cobalt chloride and nickel sulfate, with a portion sourced from recycled materials [1] Group 2: Collaboration Areas - The partnership will involve collaboration in advanced battery raw material supply, capacity layout, and product research and development [1] - The implementation period of the agreement is set for 2026 to 2028, with minimal impact on the company's performance in 2025 [1] - Specific cooperation details will be formalized in a subsequent agreement [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the transformation of Gansu's Jinchang City into a hub for high-value-added products through advanced processing of mineral resources and the recycling of hazardous waste, fostering new industrial clusters and strengthening the industrial economy [1][2][3] - Jinchang City has 164 industrial enterprises above designated size as of July this year, showcasing its industrial vitality and the emergence of high-value products with green circular production characteristics [1] - The production of high-purity cathode copper, which is crucial for electric wires, cables, and new energy batteries, is emphasized, with an annual output value exceeding 25 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The introduction of downstream enterprises in the Yongchang Industrial Park has enabled the conversion of sulfuric acid, a byproduct of copper smelting, into production materials, forming a circular chemical industry and resource utilization cluster [2] - Jinchang City has developed over 60 types of chemical products, with an annual production capacity of 12 million tons, and 77% of the raw materials needed for new energy batteries can be produced locally [2] - Gansu Yelin Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve an output value of 3 billion yuan this year by recycling solid waste and producing various products for metallurgy, electronics, and new energy sectors [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs between China and the U.S., suggesting an increased allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Precious metals continue to show strength, with silver spot prices reflecting insufficient upward momentum, indicating potential risks of a pullback amid trade disputes [1][2] - The long-term trend of de-dollarization is expected to persist, coupled with inflows into ETFs due to short-term interest rate cuts, supporting a positive outlook for the precious metals sector [1][2] Group 2 - Copper prices are anticipated to rise due to supply disruptions, with recent production guidance cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources enhancing the likelihood of a reversal in the global electrolytic copper balance by 2026 [2] - The aluminum market is also waiting for a buying opportunity following recent price increases, with inventory levels showing expected increases without exceeding forecasts [2] - Cobalt prices have surged significantly, with expectations for continued price increases in 2026-2027 due to a projected supply-demand gap of 20,000 to 30,000 tons next year [3][4] Group 3 - Recent export controls on rare earth materials by Chinese authorities are expected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to a new upward trend in rare earth prices [4] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, and Huayou Cobalt, among others, for investment opportunities in the precious metals and rare earth sectors [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in cobalt prices, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and rising demand from AI and new energy sectors [2][3][5] - Cobalt prices surged from 159,000 CNY/ton to 272,500 CNY/ton within a year, marking an increase of over 60% [2] - On September 29, the price of 1 cobalt in the Yangtze River market rose by 29,000 CNY in a single day, reaching 337,000 CNY/ton, the largest single-day increase of the year [2] Group 2 - The DRC's government imposed a four-month ban on cobalt exports starting February 22, which was later extended for another three months, significantly impacting global supply [3][5] - The DRC accounts for a substantial portion of global cobalt production, and its export ban led to a drastic reduction in imports of cobalt intermediates in China, dropping from 19,000 tons in June to just 5,200 tons in August [3][5] - The domestic production of electrolytic cobalt fell by over 50% year-on-year in July, with other downstream products also experiencing declines of 13%-16% [3] Group 3 - Cobalt's price surge is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected 34% reduction in global cobalt supply if the DRC's export ban lasts for seven months [5] - The demand for cobalt is primarily driven by its critical role in batteries, with 66% of global cobalt used in this sector, and in China, this figure rises to 87% [7] - Cobalt is essential not only for electric vehicle batteries but also for high-end manufacturing applications, including aerospace and medical tools [7][8] Group 4 - The current market conditions suggest that cobalt prices may continue to rise due to ongoing supply shortages and increasing demand, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is a peak season for new energy vehicles and consumer electronics [10] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a 5.06% increase in cobalt demand in 2025, leading to a shift from a surplus of 83,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 7,000 tons in 2025 [10] - Emerging demands from sectors like drones, robotics, and AI chip production are expected to sustain long-term growth in cobalt prices [11] Group 5 - Companies involved in cobalt mining, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, reported a 60% increase in net profit in the first half of the year due to the rising cobalt prices [13] - Investment opportunities in the cobalt market are becoming more attractive, but investors need to monitor DRC policies, downstream demand, and individual company metrics closely [13] - A list of companies benefiting from the cobalt supply chain has been compiled, with ongoing updates on supply-demand data and policy changes available for interested investors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has lifted its cobalt export ban and shifted to a quota system, allowing for significant exports in the coming years, which is expected to impact the global cobalt supply chain and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The DRC will allow over 18,000 tons of cobalt exports in 2023, with annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, distributed based on companies' historical export volumes [1]. - Following the announcement, cobalt-related stocks in China's A-share market saw significant increases, indicating a positive market reaction [1]. - The shift from a complete export ban to a quota system suggests a more refined approach to managing cobalt resources in the DRC [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cobalt market is currently facing a raw material shortage, with high concentration in spot inventories, leading to price increases primarily driven by traders and companies holding physical stocks [2]. - The battery sector, which consumes over 70% of cobalt, is experiencing pressure due to inventory levels, causing battery manufacturers to reduce procurement from upstream suppliers [2]. - The DRC's export policy change is expected to lead to a supply shortage in the global cobalt market from 2025 to 2027, with projected shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [8]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Reactions - Domestic cobalt prices in China have been reported between 270,000 to 290,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an upward trend in the market [3]. - The overall cobalt market is experiencing reduced supply and rising prices, with international demand also increasing, contributing to a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [3]. - Companies in the cobalt sector are currently assessing the new quota system and its implications for their operations, with some indicating that they have sufficient inventory to manage potential supply disruptions [10][11].