腾远钴业 20260127 摘要 腾远钴业是全球钴源出口龙头企业，持续扩充产能，计划 2025 年达到 3.15 万吨，提升市场占有率。公司技术团队强大，生产线设计灵活，能 根据需求调整生产规模，提高销售效率。 公司已导入新能源汽车、消费电子、航天航空及 AI 机器人等新兴科技领 域龙头客户，供应链优势明显，积极寻求国内外优质矿山资源，扩大市 场份额。 腾远钴业财务状况稳健，营收规模稳步提升，利润持续释放，账面现金 充裕，负债率约为 20%，远低于行业平均水平，并坚持分红政策，累计 分红近 20 亿元。 公司计划扩大海外和国内矿山资源布局，寻找古铜和镍资源，并在废旧 电池回收领域进行布局，包括散货、厂费相关渠道以及海外城市矿山资 源进口。 公司主要出货形态包括氯化钴、四氧化三钴、硫酸钴和电钴。2025 年 下半年电钴减产明显，更多精力放在氯化钴和四氧化三钴上。2026 年 前三季度氯化钴和四氧化三钴占比超过 70%。 Q&A 请介绍一下腾远钴业的主营业务及其在非洲刚果金的布局情况。 腾远钴业专注于新能源电池材料领域，主要产品包括铜和钴。公司在非洲刚果 金布局了铜冶炼业务，目前具备 6 万吨铜的产能。2025 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for lithium and cobalt core targets, suggesting active positioning in these sectors [9][14]. Core Insights - Short-term, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels due to futures market sentiment, with potential for a temporary spike before the holiday season. However, downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, leading to a possible shift towards price stabilization [4][9]. - In the medium term, supply constraints and rising cost levels have been confirmed, maintaining an upward trend for lithium prices. Cobalt demand is weak, but tight raw material supply and smelting cost support keep cobalt salt prices relatively firm, limiting short-term price declines [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Upward Trend in Lithium and Cobalt Prices - Lithium prices are experiencing strong upward momentum driven by futures market fluctuations, with the Wuxi 2605 contract rising 23.11% to 179,000 CNY/ton and the Guangzhou 2605 contract increasing 24.16% to 181,500 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices rose to 2,214 USD/ton, up 234 USD from the previous week [9][14]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, but demand from downstream sectors is weakening as the holiday approaches, leading to a market characterized by stable prices and low trading activity [9][14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics: Policy, Technology, and Performance Signals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced regulations for the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries in electric vehicles. This aims to enhance the low-carbon competitiveness of battery products [18]. - Tianhua New Energy is planning to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international presence and capital strength [18]. - Yongxing Materials reported that its lithium extraction project has achieved full production capacity and key performance indicators [18]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - In December, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 4% month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide production rose by 2% [19][20]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 9% month-on-month, and the export volume of lithium hydroxide surged by 88% [35][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for lithium and cobalt core targets, suggesting active positioning in the market [9][14]. Core Insights - The report indicates that lithium prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by futures market sentiment, with potential for short-term price spikes before a possible stabilization due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices [4][9]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain relatively stable due to tight raw material supply and sustained smelting costs, despite weak terminal demand [4][9]. - The overall trend for lithium prices is upward, with confirmed supply constraints and rising cost bases, while cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs but face weak demand [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Lithium and Cobalt Price Trends - Lithium prices are on an upward trajectory, with futures contracts showing significant weekly increases: Wuxi 2605 contract rose by 23.11% to 179,000 CNY/ton, and Guangxi 2605 contract increased by 24.16% to 181,500 CNY/ton [9][14]. - Lithium concentrate prices reached 2,214 USD/ton, up 234 USD/ton from the previous week [9][14]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with a stable pricing environment despite weak demand leading to lower transaction volumes [9][14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced regulations for the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries, aiming to enhance the low-carbon competitiveness of battery products [18]. - Tianhua New Energy is planning to issue H shares to enhance its international presence and capital strength [18]. - Yongxing Materials reported progress on its lithium extraction project, achieving full production capacity [18]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December saw a 4% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production and a 2% increase in lithium hydroxide production [19][20]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate rose by 9% month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide exports surged by 88% [35][37]. - The weekly average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76%, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 1.74% [72][73].

Q&A 镍钴专家交流 20260122 摘要 印尼镍矿供应正常情况下，预计 2026 年纯镍和硫酸镍总产量将达 162 万吨。若供应受限，产量增速可能转负，全球镍供应缺口或达 13 万吨， 对镍价产生显著影响。 2025 年印尼 MHP 产量达 47 万金属吨，含 4.7 万吨钴，主要用于硫酸 钴生产，不适用于 3C 电池。中国对高品质、低氯氯化钴需求增加，以 满足高端应用，但印尼加工成本和前端选择仍具不确定性。 中国四季度电解镍产量因成本下滑，社会库存处于低位，约四五万吨。 LME 库存则增至 25 万吨以上，隐性库存转为显性库存趋势明显，企业 年底获利了结，长期高位库存现象或难持续。 近期镍价高位波动，未来走势取决于期货市场反应和电池用镍需求。高 镍价导致电池成本上升，下游厂商的接受度和业务调整至关重要。 全球 2025 年 MHP 预估量为 47.34 万吨金属吨，印尼中间品产量高峰 或在 2028-2029 年出现，达 80 万吨金属吨，可部分弥补刚果原料问题， 但刚果配合度提升仍需时间。 当前全球镍和钴的供应情况如何，特别是印尼和刚果的政策对市场有何影响？ 目前全球镍和钴的供应主要受到印尼和刚果的政 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term lithium salt prices are under pressure for a phase adjustment, particularly due to limited acceptance of high prices by downstream sectors, while the long-term price center for lithium has significantly shifted upward [4] - Cobalt prices remain relatively stable due to tight supply of intermediate products and support from smelting costs, despite weak terminal demand [4] - The lithium and cobalt sectors are seen as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning [9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Emotional Catalysts for Price Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate prices experienced a peak and subsequent decline, with lithium concentrate prices rising to $1980 per ton, up $100 from the previous week [14] - The market for cobalt salts is subdued, with production pressures evident and smelting plant prices increasing [14] 2. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - December lithium carbonate production increased by 4% month-on-month and 42% year-on-year, while hydroxide production rose by 2% month-on-month and 30% year-on-year [25][24] - Cobalt intermediate products saw a 21.20% decrease in inventory in December, while cobalt metal inventories showed no significant reduction [62][68] 3. Lithium Salt Import and Export Data - In November, lithium carbonate exports surged by 209% month-on-month and 249% year-on-year, while imports fell by 8% month-on-month but rose by 15% year-on-year [40][41] 4. Weekly Data on Lithium Salts: Slight Production Increase and Inventory Decrease - Weekly production of lithium carbonate rose by 0.31%, and inventory decreased by 0.24% [52][53] 5. Downstream Material Inventory: Decrease in Phosphate Iron Lithium and Ternary Material Inventory - Phosphate iron lithium inventory decreased by 0.21%, and ternary material inventory decreased by 0.95% [59][60] 6. Price Trends of New Energy Metal Materials: Most Prices Increased - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 20.11%, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 20.42% [71][72]

Summary of Cobalt Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The cobalt market is experiencing significant changes due to supply constraints and increasing demand driven by technology sectors such as 3C products and AR glasses. [1][3] Supply and Demand Projections - **Global Supply**: In 2025, global refined cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 11% to 228,000 tons, but is projected to recover to 239,000 tons in 2026. [1][2] - **Global Demand**: Demand for cobalt is anticipated to grow by 9.4% in 2025 to 242,000 tons, reaching 251,000 tons in 2026, although the growth rate is expected to slow. [1][3] - **China's Supply**: China's refined cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 8.6% to 151,800 tons in 2025, with a recovery to 193,500 tons in 2026. [1][4] - **China's Demand**: China's demand for refined cobalt is projected to grow by 20% in 2025 to 193,000 tons, reaching 202,600 tons in 2026, driven by the aging population and health economy. [1][4] Impact of Congo's Export Policies - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented strict export controls, leading to a 31% decline in global raw material supply in 2025. [5][11] - The DRC's policies have resulted in a significant reduction in imports of wet intermediate products and a notable increase in MHP imports, while imports of products like cobalt tetroxide have decreased. [6][11] - The DRC's export quota for 2026-2027 is limited to 96,600 tons, exacerbating supply constraints. [5][11] Price Trends - Prices for cobalt salts have seen significant increases, with intermediate prices rising by 112% from 2024 to 2025. [9] - Cobalt sulfate prices increased from 29,900 CNY/ton to 55,900 CNY/ton, while cobalt chloride rose from 36,800 CNY/ton to 67,800 CNY/ton. [9] - The price of refined cobalt is expected to reach new highs, with projections of 350,000 to 600,000 CNY/ton. [8] Market Dynamics - The cobalt market is expected to face a supply shortage of approximately 12,000 tons in 2026, with global refined cobalt supply at 249,000 tons and demand at 251,000 tons. [2][12] - MHP projects and recycling materials are anticipated to be the main sources of supply growth, contributing over 20% to the market. [13] Regional Insights - Indonesia's share in raw material supply is expected to increase to around 27% in 2026, with new projects expected to come online. [2][14] - The Chinese market is projected to maintain strong demand, particularly in the battery sector, driven by the growth of 3C products. [4][32] Challenges and Opportunities - The cobalt industry faces challenges from geopolitical risks and policy changes, which may lead to price volatility. [8][11] - Despite the challenges, the demand for cobalt in aerospace and military applications remains stable, providing a buffer against market fluctuations. [8] Conclusion - The cobalt market is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, rising demand, and significant price fluctuations, with the DRC's export policies playing a crucial role in shaping future dynamics. [1][5][11]

凯盛新材 20251222 摘要 氯化亚砜价格预计维持高位，受需求持续性和硫磺价格影响。公司采取 随行就市定价，虽年度客户锁定采购量，但未锁定价格，目前报价基本 在 3,000 元以上，部分超 4,000 元。硫磺成本是主要上涨因素，每吨氯 化亚砜需七八百元硫磺成本。 锂电池市场对氯化钴需求预计增加，2025 年锂电池级别产品售价已达 7,000 元/吨。公司积极推动氯化钴出海，扩大市场份额。市场供应不足 和个别厂商问题导致订单转移，原材料涨价增强公司议价能力。 农药相关产品市场表现良好，2025 年出口量显著增加，大客户盈泰生 物交易量大幅上升。预计 2026 年第一季度农化板块仍乐观。食品添加 剂需求稳定，属刚需。公司暂无氯化亚砜扩产计划，现有产能利用率接 近 100%。 2025 年氯化亚砜吨毛利约 20%-30%，较上半年提高。若价格维持 3,000 元以上，明年吨毛利将更高。可转债强赎或大量转股可能节约财 务费用，释放利润，完全转股可释放至少 3,000 万元利润。 Q&A 氯化亚砜自 11 月以来价格大涨的核心驱动因素是什么？ 公司对氯化亚砜后续价格走势有何看法？ 目前来看，氯化亚砜价格预计会持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the new quota management system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will significantly restrict global cobalt supply, leading to a projected supply decrease to 200,000 tons by 2025, with further increases to 214,000 tons in 2026 and 216,000 tons in 2027 [1][2] - Global cobalt consumption is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projections of 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a rigid supply shortage for cobalt [1][2] - The DRC's new quota system has replaced the previous export ban, with annual export volumes expected to be less than 100,000 tons, including a base quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [2] Group 2 - The inventory of cobalt products is continuously being consumed across the entire supply chain, with significant reductions in cobalt intermediate stocks in China, dropping from 45,000 tons in May to 17,000 tons currently, resulting in a total reduction of 32,000 tons over five months [2] - Cobalt product prices have experienced a significant increase, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, marking a 306% increase [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense is set to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement tender, marking the first large-scale cobalt purchase by the U.S. since the end of the Cold War, with the announcement expected in early February 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, has raised a net amount of 5.204 billion yuan through its initial public offering, primarily aimed at expanding production capacity and upgrading technology for cobalt and nickel products [2]. Group 1: Fund Utilization - The raised funds are allocated for projects including the annual production of 20,000 tons of cobalt and 10,000 tons of nickel, along with the technological upgrade of related production facilities [2]. - Specific construction projects include production lines for cobalt (39,500 tons), copper (30,000 tons), nickel (60,000 tons), manganese (21,820 tons), and lithium carbonate (20,000 tons) [2]. Group 2: Current Production Capacity - As of now, the company has achieved a production capacity of 31,500 tons for cobalt, 10,000 tons for nickel, 10,000 tons for manganese, 5,000 tons for lithium carbonate, and 60,000 tons for copper [2]. - The project benefits are expected to gradually materialize as production capacity is realized, with the company planning to advance capacity expansion in an orderly manner based on resource supply, market conditions, and product demand [2].