Core Viewpoint - The end of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on October 15, 2023, and the introduction of a quota system will significantly impact the global cobalt supply-demand balance, with expectations that the quota will not meet downstream demand, leading to tighter supply [1][3][9]. Group 1: Cobalt Export Ban and Quota System - The DRC, as the world's largest cobalt supplier, will end its seven-month cobalt export ban and implement an export quota system starting October 16, 2023 [3]. - The DRC's cobalt reserves are projected to be 6 million tons in 2024, accounting for 55% of global reserves, with an expected production of 220,000 tons, representing 76% of global output [3]. - The new quota system allows for the export of over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of the year, with annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, based on historical export volumes [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement of the quota system, cobalt-related stocks in the A-share market saw a rise, indicating market optimism despite concerns about supply shortages [1]. - The current market for cobalt products has seen price increases, with electrolytic cobalt prices rising by 1% recently, reflecting tight supply conditions [4]. - Analysts predict that the initial shipments post-ban will be limited, with only about 3,600 tons expected to be shipped in October, which would only cover one-third of China's monthly cobalt intermediate consumption [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Supply Diversification - Chinese companies are actively exploring overseas cobalt resource development and recycling to address challenges posed by the global cobalt supply chain restructuring [2][11]. - Notable progress has been made in Indonesia, with companies like Greeenme achieving significant increases in cobalt production, which helps mitigate the impact of the DRC's export ban [11]. - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly viable, with expectations that it will alleviate supply pressures as recovery rates improve in the coming years [12].