Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: July 7, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 16.57%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 39.7% [2] - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 14.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 23.9% [2] Hedging - **Inventory management**: For high finished - product inventory, sell SF2509, SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, suggested entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - **Procurement management**: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509, SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, suggested entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Strategy - **Core contradiction**: Iron alloy rebounded last week due to coal price rebound and technical buying, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and entering the off - season of steel demand. With profit recovery, production increased, inventory is accumulating. It is expected to remain weak. [3] - **Strategy**: Rebound and sell at high prices. For silicon iron, focus on the resistance level of 5600 - 5700; for silicon manganese, focus on 5800 - 5900 [3] Group 4:利多解读 - Silicon manganese may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under government policies [3] Group 5:利空解读 Silicon Iron - Profit recovery may lead to increased production. Weekly production rate is 31.95% (up 0.25% week - on - week), weekly output is 10.02 tons (up 2.77% week - on - week) [7] - Electricity cost is expected to decline [7] - Warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration [7] - Declining hot metal output weakens support [7] Silicon Manganese - Weak real - estate market leads to weak demand [8] - Weekly production rate is 40.34% (up 1.13% week - on - week), weekly output is 18.01 tons (up 0.5% week - on - week) [8] - Warehouse receipt inventory is 44.34 tons (down 3.61% week - on - week), total inventory is 66.57 tons (down 2.36% week - on - week) [8] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 7, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 136, the spot price in Ningxia is 5250, etc. [9] Silicon Manganese - On July 7, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 254, the spot price in Ningxia is 5520, etc. [10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - Include silicon iron and silicon manganese market price seasonality, basis seasonality, and futures month - spread seasonality charts [12][13][15] - Include silicon iron and silicon manganese inventory seasonality charts [31]