Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market is facing a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with production profits gradually declining. The market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost center of ferroalloys may move down due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the ferroalloy will fluctuate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.5%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 10.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Market Review and Core Logic - **Market Review**: Yesterday, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising with a reduction in positions. Today, they followed the decline of coking coal, and the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. The view of weak fluctuations is maintained [4]. - **Core Logic**: The steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline, falling below 40%. The molten iron output has slightly decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally, and the ferroalloy's own inventory is also at a high level. The production profits of ferroalloys are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The inventory pressure is large. Ferrosilicon production has started to decrease this week, and silicomanganese production has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still depend on production cuts [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Ferrosilicon production started to decrease this week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the magnesium ingot production increased by 21.96% month - on - month [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The steel peak season was not prosperous, the steel mill profit rate fell below 40%, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually increasing. The coil and plate segment is still in a situation of high inventory and high production. Although the production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. There is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month, with large inventory pressure [8][10]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 26, the 01 - 05 spread was - 10, etc. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1141 week - on - week [8]. - **Silicomanganese Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270, the 01 - 05 spread was - 66, etc. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1750 week - on - week [9][11].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The ferroalloy market is currently oscillating, with the upward momentum gradually weakening after two consecutive days of doji candlesticks at the close. The recent rise in ferroalloy prices has been mainly driven by short - covering, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure levels [4]. - The ferroalloy market is facing several core contradictions, including the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Overall, although supported by coking coal prices, the fundamentals are insufficient to support a significant upward movement, and the upside space is limited [5][7]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.3%. For ferromanganese, the monthly price range forecast is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.93% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.3% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price declines, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. Market Review - The ferroalloy market has been oscillating, and the upward movement has been driven by short - covering. The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [4]. Core Contradictions - **High Inventory and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are declining, and there is little expectation of further production increases. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and the inventory of five major steel products is increasing. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is at a five - year high, with a month - on - month increase of 11.8%, indicating high inventory pressure [5]. - **Cost Support Challenge**: Although the prices of semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the pattern of high supply and weak demand in the ferroalloy market remains unchanged, challenging the effectiveness of cost support. However, the tight supply of coking coal, stricter environmental inspections, and political factors in Mongolia have led to a significant increase in coking coal prices, providing short - term support for ferroalloy prices [5]. - **Contradiction between Expectation and Reality**: The anti - involution sentiment still lingers in the market, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. However, the lack of substantial actions increases the risk of price reversals after reaching highs. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped below 50%, increasing the risk of negative feedback in the black market, which further weakens the already weak fundamentals of steel and ferroalloy. After the Fourth Plenary Session, there was no unexpected total stimulus or strong real - estate stimulus, providing limited support for the strong rebound of the cycle and real - estate chains [5][7]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated market concerns about Sino - US relations; the US CPI inflation data in September was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", proposing a capacity replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron - making and steel - making in each province [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The steel market has failed to meet peak - season expectations, with a significant decline in steel mill profitability and increasing negative feedback pressure, leading to a continuous decline in hot - metal production; Tangshan plans to implement a 30% blast - furnace production restriction for four days from October 27 - 31, reducing the demand for ferroalloys; from January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and various real - estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume also showed significant declines [8]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: The daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts compared to previous days and weeks [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar to silicon iron, the daily data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts, with corresponding changes [10][11]. Seasonal Charts - The report provides multiple seasonal charts, including those for silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze the historical patterns and trends of these factors [12][14][25][35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy trend include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] - The rise of ferroalloys today is mainly due to the impact of coking coal, but the weak downstream demand pattern remains unchanged. There are still expectations for policy stimulus, so ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.4%. For silicomanganese, it is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio when SF is at 6200 - 6250 and SM is at 6400 - 6500 to prevent inventory depreciation [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when SF is at 5200 - 5300 and SM is at 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production remains at a high level, but downstream demand shows no obvious improvement, with inventory accumulation in five major steel products. Silicomanganese is relatively stronger than ferrosilicon recently [4] - Cost support challenge: Although the prices of blue charcoal, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the continuous decline of coking coal prices challenges the effectiveness of cost support [4] - Contradiction between expectation and reality: There is an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action leads to a high risk of price rising and then falling [4] 利多解读 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to maintain a stable and positive operation of the machinery industry from 2025 to 2026 [6] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and fair competition in the household appliance industry, aiming to eliminate disorderly low - price competition [6] 利空解读 - US President Trump announced that the US will impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese - imported goods starting from November 1st [7] - The inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, with a 160,000 - ton inventory this week, a week - on - week increase of 8.7%. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.1%, and silicomanganese enterprise inventory is 242,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7% [7] Daily Data - Ferrosilicon daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [8] - Silicomanganese daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [9] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and coking coal [10][11] - There are seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [13][22]

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the iron alloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disturbances, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the iron alloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - related supply contractions and inventory reductions, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and inventory increases in some products [7][8][9] Summary by Directory Iron Alloy Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.68% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.5%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a volatility of 12.10% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.9% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Although production profits initially declined in early September, they have now recovered, and production remains at a high level. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and there may be a situation of "peak season without prosperity" [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and the silicon - iron spot price in some areas is lower than the cost price, forming a cost - bottom expectation. There are rumors of a possible reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, but currently, the supply is relatively sufficient [4] - **Term Structure and Capital**: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal has not improved, and the contango has deepened. Meanwhile, the iron alloy's open interest has been declining for two consecutive weeks [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations**: There are still expectations of supply - side contractions, but there is a lack of substantial actions, and there is a high risk of price surges followed by declines [5] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces to 33000KVA. An important article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine may help regulate the market. Silicon - iron enterprise inventory and total inventory have decreased, with a 9.3% and 0.53% month - on - month decline respectively [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. There are rumors of a reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, which may affect the cost of manganese - silicon [7] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon - iron enterprise operating rate remains high, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 19.24% month - on - month, and the total inventory has increased by 5.97% month - on - month. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon - manganese price has decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 82, with a daily increase of 118 and a weekly increase of 152. The silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased by 243 compared to the previous day [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 94 and a weekly increase of 86. The silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 629 compared to the previous day [11] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs of the term structure spreads of silicon iron, silicon manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal graphs of market prices, basis, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese [12][15][25]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 10, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions gradually disappeared, and a major bearish factor restricting coking coal also faded. On Friday, news of anti - involution emerged again, leading to significant increases in popular varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after a decline, also rebounded. The expected decline in ferroalloy production profit means there is limited incentive for further production increases. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the output in the southern silicon - manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, with some contract structures changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long - term trading logic lies in the anti - involution expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are expectations of supply - side contraction. The market's long - short logic is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The widening price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese, namely semi - coke and manganese ore, makes it cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400. It is also suggested to lightly go long on the ferrosilicon main contract 11 at around 5450 and the silicon - manganese main contract 01 at around 5700. However, if there is no substantial progress in anti - involution, the risk of a sharp fall after a rise is relatively high [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.74%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 34.5% [3] - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.67%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 29.1% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is planned based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward trend of ferroalloys is affected by the price trend of coking coal and anti - involution news. The production profit decline and the flat - water season will lead to a decrease in production. The term structure of ferroalloys is improving, while that of coking coal is not. The long - term trading logic is based on anti - involution expectations, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon - manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton - degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton - degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October, which may affect manganese ore prices and thus the cost of manganese - silicon [6] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory of ferrosilicon is 66,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon - manganese**: In the long run, the sluggish real - estate market and the decline of the black - related sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon - manganese. The enterprise inventory of silicon - manganese is 160,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [7] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: The report provides daily data on ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [8] - **Silicon - manganese**: The report provides daily data on silicon - manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou [9][10] Term Structure and Seasonal Charts - The report includes term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon - manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads [11][12][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferrous Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The recent trading logic is the production restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferrous alloy furnace materials. The ferrous alloy prices have followed the decline of coking coal prices. However, the possibility and space for further decline are limited. There is still support at the bottom, but there is also pressure at the top under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit of ferrous alloys has been continuously declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure at the top. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Key Points by Section Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.0%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese alloy is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.08% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation, with a selling orientation and a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrous alloy prices, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage, with a buying orientation and a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradiction - The price of ferrous alloys has followed the decline of coking coal. Although there is still a possibility of further decline, the space is limited. There is support at the bottom, but pressure at the top under high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit has been declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4] Bullish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese alloy in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply of ferrous alloys is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. The enterprise inventory is 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the market doubts the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese alloy. The production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [8] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for silicon ferroalloy, silicon manganese alloy, and coking coal, as well as various seasonal charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, including market price, basis, and futures spread seasonal charts [9][10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 military parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. The previous position limits on coking coal contracts by the exchange have reduced its liquidity, and the hype sentiment has faded, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys have followed the downward trend of coking coal prices. However, ferroalloy prices have dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution campaign, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still support at the bottom, but due to high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside. Ferroalloy profits have been declining, and production is at a relatively high level in the past five years, with weak incentives for further production increases and a possibility of production cuts. With production restrictions on steel mills before the parade and no significant improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventories may shift from destocking to stockpiling. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, semi - coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, and it is cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 30.1% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 利多解读 Ferrosilicon - The demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [7]. Silicomanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicomanganese industry. The demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. Silicomanganese enterprise inventories are 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [8]. 利空解读 Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five years, with significant supply pressure. In the absence of improved downstream demand, its growth space is limited. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventories are 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [8]. Silicomanganese - In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicomanganese demand. Silicomanganese production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the Chinese enterprise operating rate is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [8]. Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 18, 01 - 05 was - 124, 05 - 09 was 284, 09 - 01 was - 160. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to August 29 and August 25. The number of warehouse receipts was 19331, a decrease compared to previous days [7][8]. Silicomanganese - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294, 01 - 05 was - 44, 05 - 09 was 138, 09 - 01 was - 94, and the price difference between the two silicons was - 204. Spot prices in different regions also declined compared to previous days. The number of warehouse receipts was 65760, a decrease compared to previous days [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal on the cost - side. Although current steel mill profits are good and hot metal production is high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimuli. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and there is limited upward pressure on ore prices. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations of supply contraction. The market's long - short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Driven by profits, ferroalloy production is increasing, and there is a possibility of inventory shifting from destocking to restocking. The logic of ferroalloys is related to coking coal prices, with large fluctuations in coking coal futures and intense capital games. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The price of ferroalloys is affected by coal prices. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is high, supporting ferroalloy demand. However, the long - term real estate market is weak, and the support from other industries is policy - dependent. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there is limited support for silicon - manganese from the ore side. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with increasing production and potential inventory restocking [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The price of Shaanxi semi - coke small pieces increased by 35 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton. The profit in Inner Mongolia's silicon - iron production area remained unchanged at - 49 yuan/ton, while that in Ningxia increased by 50 yuan/ton to 98 yuan/ton. This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, and the total silicon - iron inventory was 16.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The production cost in Ningxia was 5942.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.24 yuan/ton. The profit in the northern region was - 58.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.64 yuan/ton, and that in the southern region was - 417.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71 yuan/ton. The silicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 37.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total silicon - manganese inventory was 53.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [8]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. In July, the metal magnesium output was 8.17 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory was 10.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand. The weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, ferroalloy supply is increasing and is at a high level in the same period in the past 5 years, with high supply pressure. The inventory of the five major steel products is increasing, limiting the production space of steel mills and the growth space of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 58 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The price of semi - coke small pieces was 630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 35 yuan/ton from a week ago. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 20,597, a day - on - day decrease of 169 and a week - on - week decrease of 6 [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 264 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 188 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The prices of various manganese ores changed slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts was 73,048, a day - on - day decrease of 143 and a week - on - week decrease of 2398 [10][11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Although the current profit situation of steel mills is good and molten iron production remains high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large fluctuations in the coking coal futures market and intense capital games. The production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, which limits the upside space. Whether ferroalloys can continue to fall depends on the support levels of 5650 for ferrosilicon and 5900 for ferromanganese [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Ferrosilicon**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising ferroalloy prices, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The short - term price of ferroalloys is affected by coking coal prices, while the long - term demand outlook is constrained by the real estate market and the uncertainty of policy - driven demand from the home appliance and automotive industries. The supply of manganese ore is sufficient, and the production of ferroalloys is increasing, which restricts price increases [4]. 3.4利多解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 9.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory is 17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The government's control policies for high - energy - consuming industries are still strict, and the ferromanganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products is 12.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory is 16.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt is 38.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory is 54.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and the profit in the southern region is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [7]. 3.5利空解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output is 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory is 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area is - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and the profit in the Ningxia production area is 48 yuan/ton (-234) [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [7]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [8][9]. 3.7 Seasonal Charts - Seasonal charts of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are provided, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and patterns [10][11][19][20]