Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the iron alloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disturbances, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the iron alloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - related supply contractions and inventory reductions, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and inventory increases in some products [7][8][9] Summary by Directory Iron Alloy Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.68% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.5%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a volatility of 12.10% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.9% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Although production profits initially declined in early September, they have now recovered, and production remains at a high level. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and there may be a situation of "peak season without prosperity" [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and the silicon - iron spot price in some areas is lower than the cost price, forming a cost - bottom expectation. There are rumors of a possible reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, but currently, the supply is relatively sufficient [4] - **Term Structure and Capital**: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal has not improved, and the contango has deepened. Meanwhile, the iron alloy's open interest has been declining for two consecutive weeks [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations**: There are still expectations of supply - side contractions, but there is a lack of substantial actions, and there is a high risk of price surges followed by declines [5] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces to 33000KVA. An important article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine may help regulate the market. Silicon - iron enterprise inventory and total inventory have decreased, with a 9.3% and 0.53% month - on - month decline respectively [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. There are rumors of a reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, which may affect the cost of manganese - silicon [7] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon - iron enterprise operating rate remains high, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 19.24% month - on - month, and the total inventory has increased by 5.97% month - on - month. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon - manganese price has decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 82, with a daily increase of 118 and a weekly increase of 152. The silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased by 243 compared to the previous day [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 94 and a weekly increase of 86. The silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 629 compared to the previous day [11] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs of the term structure spreads of silicon iron, silicon manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal graphs of market prices, basis, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese [12][15][25]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 10, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions gradually disappeared, and a major bearish factor restricting coking coal also faded. On Friday, news of anti - involution emerged again, leading to significant increases in popular varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after a decline, also rebounded. The expected decline in ferroalloy production profit means there is limited incentive for further production increases. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the output in the southern silicon - manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, with some contract structures changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long - term trading logic lies in the anti - involution expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are expectations of supply - side contraction. The market's long - short logic is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The widening price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese, namely semi - coke and manganese ore, makes it cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400. It is also suggested to lightly go long on the ferrosilicon main contract 11 at around 5450 and the silicon - manganese main contract 01 at around 5700. However, if there is no substantial progress in anti - involution, the risk of a sharp fall after a rise is relatively high [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.74%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 34.5% [3] - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.67%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 29.1% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is planned based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward trend of ferroalloys is affected by the price trend of coking coal and anti - involution news. The production profit decline and the flat - water season will lead to a decrease in production. The term structure of ferroalloys is improving, while that of coking coal is not. The long - term trading logic is based on anti - involution expectations, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon - manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton - degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton - degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October, which may affect manganese ore prices and thus the cost of manganese - silicon [6] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory of ferrosilicon is 66,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon - manganese**: In the long run, the sluggish real - estate market and the decline of the black - related sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon - manganese. The enterprise inventory of silicon - manganese is 160,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [7] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: The report provides daily data on ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [8] - **Silicon - manganese**: The report provides daily data on silicon - manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou [9][10] Term Structure and Seasonal Charts - The report includes term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon - manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads [11][12][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferrous Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The recent trading logic is the production restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferrous alloy furnace materials. The ferrous alloy prices have followed the decline of coking coal prices. However, the possibility and space for further decline are limited. There is still support at the bottom, but there is also pressure at the top under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit of ferrous alloys has been continuously declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure at the top. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Key Points by Section Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.0%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese alloy is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.08% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation, with a selling orientation and a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrous alloy prices, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage, with a buying orientation and a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradiction - The price of ferrous alloys has followed the decline of coking coal. Although there is still a possibility of further decline, the space is limited. There is support at the bottom, but pressure at the top under high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit has been declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4] Bullish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese alloy in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply of ferrous alloys is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. The enterprise inventory is 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the market doubts the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese alloy. The production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [8] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for silicon ferroalloy, silicon manganese alloy, and coking coal, as well as various seasonal charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, including market price, basis, and futures spread seasonal charts [9][10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 military parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. The previous position limits on coking coal contracts by the exchange have reduced its liquidity, and the hype sentiment has faded, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys have followed the downward trend of coking coal prices. However, ferroalloy prices have dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution campaign, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still support at the bottom, but due to high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside. Ferroalloy profits have been declining, and production is at a relatively high level in the past five years, with weak incentives for further production increases and a possibility of production cuts. With production restrictions on steel mills before the parade and no significant improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventories may shift from destocking to stockpiling. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, semi - coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, and it is cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 30.1% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 利多解读 Ferrosilicon - The demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [7]. Silicomanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicomanganese industry. The demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. Silicomanganese enterprise inventories are 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [8]. 利空解读 Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five years, with significant supply pressure. In the absence of improved downstream demand, its growth space is limited. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventories are 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [8]. Silicomanganese - In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicomanganese demand. Silicomanganese production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the Chinese enterprise operating rate is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [8]. Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 18, 01 - 05 was - 124, 05 - 09 was 284, 09 - 01 was - 160. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to August 29 and August 25. The number of warehouse receipts was 19331, a decrease compared to previous days [7][8]. Silicomanganese - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294, 01 - 05 was - 44, 05 - 09 was 138, 09 - 01 was - 94, and the price difference between the two silicons was - 204. Spot prices in different regions also declined compared to previous days. The number of warehouse receipts was 65760, a decrease compared to previous days [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal on the cost - side. Although current steel mill profits are good and hot metal production is high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimuli. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and there is limited upward pressure on ore prices. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations of supply contraction. The market's long - short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Driven by profits, ferroalloy production is increasing, and there is a possibility of inventory shifting from destocking to restocking. The logic of ferroalloys is related to coking coal prices, with large fluctuations in coking coal futures and intense capital games. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The price of ferroalloys is affected by coal prices. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is high, supporting ferroalloy demand. However, the long - term real estate market is weak, and the support from other industries is policy - dependent. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there is limited support for silicon - manganese from the ore side. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with increasing production and potential inventory restocking [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The price of Shaanxi semi - coke small pieces increased by 35 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton. The profit in Inner Mongolia's silicon - iron production area remained unchanged at - 49 yuan/ton, while that in Ningxia increased by 50 yuan/ton to 98 yuan/ton. This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, and the total silicon - iron inventory was 16.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The production cost in Ningxia was 5942.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.24 yuan/ton. The profit in the northern region was - 58.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.64 yuan/ton, and that in the southern region was - 417.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71 yuan/ton. The silicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 37.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total silicon - manganese inventory was 53.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [8]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. In July, the metal magnesium output was 8.17 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory was 10.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand. The weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, ferroalloy supply is increasing and is at a high level in the same period in the past 5 years, with high supply pressure. The inventory of the five major steel products is increasing, limiting the production space of steel mills and the growth space of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 58 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The price of semi - coke small pieces was 630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 35 yuan/ton from a week ago. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 20,597, a day - on - day decrease of 169 and a week - on - week decrease of 6 [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 264 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 188 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The prices of various manganese ores changed slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts was 73,048, a day - on - day decrease of 143 and a week - on - week decrease of 2398 [10][11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Although the current profit situation of steel mills is good and molten iron production remains high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large fluctuations in the coking coal futures market and intense capital games. The production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, which limits the upside space. Whether ferroalloys can continue to fall depends on the support levels of 5650 for ferrosilicon and 5900 for ferromanganese [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Ferrosilicon**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising ferroalloy prices, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The short - term price of ferroalloys is affected by coking coal prices, while the long - term demand outlook is constrained by the real estate market and the uncertainty of policy - driven demand from the home appliance and automotive industries. The supply of manganese ore is sufficient, and the production of ferroalloys is increasing, which restricts price increases [4]. 3.4利多解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 9.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory is 17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The government's control policies for high - energy - consuming industries are still strict, and the ferromanganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products is 12.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory is 16.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt is 38.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory is 54.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and the profit in the southern region is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [7]. 3.5利空解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output is 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory is 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area is - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and the profit in the Ningxia production area is 48 yuan/ton (-234) [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [7]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [8][9]. 3.7 Seasonal Charts - Seasonal charts of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are provided, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and patterns [10][11][19][20]

Group 1: Report Information - The name of the report is "Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report", dated August 12, 2025, and the author is Chen Mintao [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Recent iron alloy price trends mainly follow coal price fluctuations. Current good steel mill profits and high hot metal production support iron alloy demand, but long - term real estate market is低迷, and support from home appliances and cars depends on policy stimulus. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, with weak support for ferrosilicon - manganese. Short - term anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of iron alloy prices lies in coking coal prices, with high medium - to - long - term coking coal valuation trends but severe short - term fluctuations. There is a risk of price correction [4] Group 4: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon - manganese is also between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging - For inventory management, when finished product inventory is high and there is concern about price decline, shorting ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buying ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of 5,100 - 5,200 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferrosilicon - manganese industry [5] - This week, the demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The ferrosilicon warehouse receipt inventory was 98,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total ferrosilicon inventory was 170,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [7] - The demand for ferrosilicon - manganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt was 380,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total ferrosilicon - manganese inventory was 541,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region of ferrosilicon - manganese was - 98.14 yuan/ton (an increase of 70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (an increase of 85.56) [8] Bearish Factors - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area of ferrosilicon was - 49 yuan/ton (a decrease of 134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (a decrease of 234) [7][8] - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferrosilicon - manganese. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon - manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly ferrosilicon - manganese output was 195,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Group 6: Daily Data Ferrosilicon Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia increased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 14, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 26, the 09 - 01 spread decreased by 12, and the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt increased by 379. The prices of ferrosilicon spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - Manganese Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 10, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 8, the 09 - 01 spread increased by 2, and the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt decreased by 187. The prices of ferrosilicon - manganese spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [9] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese, including market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze historical price and inventory trends [11][20][32]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high molten iron production provide support for ferroalloy demand. In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The anti - involution trading sentiment has faded, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions after a pullback [4] Summary by Content Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is in the range of 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferromanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 利多 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory was 9.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory was 17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% [5][7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 12.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory was 16.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt was 38.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory was 54.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region was - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [8] 利空 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production start - up rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output was 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory was 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area was - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (-234) [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output was 19.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 11, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 22, the 01 - 05 spread was - 98, the 05 - 09 spread was 284, the 09 - 01 spread was - 186. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5600, and 5500 respectively. The prices of semi - coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal were 595, 682, and 570 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 19646 [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 8, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 104, the 01 - 05 spread was - 40, the 05 - 09 spread was 138, the 09 - 01 spread was - 98, and the double - silicon spread was - 274. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5850, 5800, 5850, 5870, and 5830 respectively. The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, Qinzhou Gabonese ore, and Inner Mongolia chemical coke were 40.7, 35, 40.2, 37.8, 40.5, and 1110 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 76045 [9][10] Seasonal Data - The report also provides seasonal data on the market prices, basis, and futures spreads of silicon iron and silicon manganese, as well as the seasonal data of total silicon iron inventory and silicon manganese inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the meeting last week, the market has a clearer understanding of the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The commodity market has cooled down, and ferroalloys have returned to their fundamentals. Current high steel mill profits and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, and the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The release of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" has supported ferroalloy prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly) is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. Silicon manganese price range (monthly) is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 3.3 Core Contradiction - After the meeting, the market clarifies the anti - involution policy. Policy focuses on partial capacity governance, not overall reduction. The commodity market cools down, and ferroalloys return to fundamentals. High steel mill profits and hot metal production support demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there are still expectations for supply - side contraction. The "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" support ferroalloy prices [4] 3.4利多解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +85 yuan/ton (+6), and in Ningxia production area is 282 yuan/ton (+56) [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry [5] 3.5利空解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%. The weekly output is 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The demand for five major steel products is 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory is 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%, and the total inventory is 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and silicon manganese demand is relatively weak. The profit in the northern region is - 168.65 yuan/ton (- 101.91), and in the southern region is - 511.42 yuan/ton (- 81.09). The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The weekly output is 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The warehouse receipt is 39.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%, and the total inventory is 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] 3.6 Silicon Iron Daily Data - Data such as silicon iron basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [7] 3.7 Silicon Manganese Daily Data - Data such as silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [8] 3.8 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are presented, including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloy prices maintained a slow upward trend. After the Friday close, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, strengthening market expectations for supply - side reform. Recently, the overall price center of the black sector has shifted upward, and coal prices have gradually strengthened, supporting the rise of ferroalloy prices. In the short term, ferroalloy prices are optimistic. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloy is relatively small, with silicon - manganese in a destocking trend and silicon - iron having high inventory but supported by coal prices. The current price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment, and the fundamental resonance is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon - iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) Silicon - iron - The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is - 171 yuan/ton (+90.5), and in Ningxia production area is - 44 yuan/ton (+54) - This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory is 6.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.54% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [7] Silicon - manganese - The government's control policy on high - energy - consuming industries remains strict, and the silicon - manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulation - The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32) - Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory is 21.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; silicon - manganese warehouse receipts are 39.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%; total silicon - manganese inventory is 61.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [8] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) Silicon - iron - Silicon - iron warehouse - receipt inventory is 10.98 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.02%; total silicon - iron inventory is 17.33 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% - This week, the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel products is 2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% - The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output is 10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [9] Silicon - manganese - In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand - The demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products is 12.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [9] Daily Data Silicon - iron - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 68 (a day - on - day increase of 292, a week - on - week decrease of 74), and other basis and price data are also provided - The price of blue charcoal small materials remains unchanged at 540, Qinhuangdao thermal coal is 649 (a day - on - day increase of 2, a week - on - week increase of 12), and Yulin thermal coal remains unchanged at 510 - Silicon - iron warehouse receipts are 22124 (a day - on - day decrease of 26, a week - on - week increase of 174) [9] Silicon - manganese - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 162 (a day - on - day increase of 124, a week - on - week decrease of 38), and other basis, price and warehouse - receipt data are also provided [10][11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese include market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory, covering multiple years and different contracts [12][13][15][16][19][20][22][23][25][26][29][30][31]