铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/20 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2511、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...

铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/13 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/12 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 买卖方 套保工具 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/11 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/6 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润， ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/24 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 【核心矛盾】 上周在反内卷情绪驱动下，铁合金维持缓慢上涨趋势。周五收盘后工信部宣布出台钢铁等重点行业的稳增长 工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，进一步加强了市场对供给侧改革的预期。近 期黑色板块整体价格重心上移，煤炭价格也逐渐走强， 支撑铁合金价格上涨，短期内铁合金价格偏乐观。铁 合金目前的供需矛盾相对不大，硅锰且处于去库趋势，硅铁的库存较高但煤炭价格对硅铁存在支撑。近期商 品市场情绪驱动，对铁合金价格存在支撑，但基本面共振驱动不强，还是需要关注政策预期的落地情况。 【利多解读】 硅铁： 硅锰： . 1、硅铁内蒙产区利润-171元/吨（+90.5）；宁夏产区利润-44元/吨（+54） 2、本周硅铁企业库存6.35万吨，环比-9.54% 3、铁水产量超预期增长。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Iron Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 20.20%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 54.1% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 13.67%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 18.9% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Trend - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloys maintained a slow upward trend. With profit recovery, the operating rate increased, and production was above the seasonal level. Production slightly increased, but downstream demand didn't change significantly. Silicon iron showed a stockpiling trend, and the de - stocking speed of silicon manganese slowed down. Considering factors such as the reduction of manganese ore quotes in August, the resumption of Australian ore shipments, and the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. After the market recovery, there is a high possibility of increased production due to profit repair, and supply pressure may gradually increase. Silicon iron is under pressure at 5600 - 5700, and silicon manganese at 5800 - 5900. However, the overall price center of the black sector has moved up, and coal prices are strengthening, so the downside space of ferroalloys is limited. Ferroalloys may maintain a volatile trend [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia production area profit: - 261.5 yuan/ton (+70); Ningxia production area profit: - 98 yuan/ton (+50). With profit repair, there is a possibility of increased production. The weekly operating rate of silicon iron producers is 31.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%, and the weekly output is 9.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32). The enterprise inventory is 22.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67%; the warehouse receipts are 42.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%; the total inventory is 64.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Iron - This week, the enterprise inventory is 7.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.78%. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical level after re - registration following the June cancellation rule. The expected decline in hot metal production weakens the support for ferroalloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of the black sector make the market skeptical about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese producers is 40.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, and the weekly output is 18.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 66, the 01 - 05 spread is - 60, the 05 - 09 spread is 134, the 09 - 01 spread is - 74. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related raw materials and warehouse receipts are also provided [8] Silicon Manganese - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 168, the 01 - 05 spread is - 34, the 05 - 09 spread is 74, the 09 - 01 spread is - 40, the double - silicon spread is - 298. The spot prices in different regions, the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials, and warehouse receipts are also provided [9][10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts of silicon iron market price, basis, futures spreads, and total inventory, as well as silicon manganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: July 7, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 16.57%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 39.7% [2] - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 14.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 23.9% [2] Hedging - **Inventory management**: For high finished - product inventory, sell SF2509, SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, suggested entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - **Procurement management**: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509, SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, suggested entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Strategy - **Core contradiction**: Iron alloy rebounded last week due to coal price rebound and technical buying, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and entering the off - season of steel demand. With profit recovery, production increased, inventory is accumulating. It is expected to remain weak. [3] - **Strategy**: Rebound and sell at high prices. For silicon iron, focus on the resistance level of 5600 - 5700; for silicon manganese, focus on 5800 - 5900 [3] Group 4:利多解读 - Silicon manganese may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under government policies [3] Group 5:利空解读 Silicon Iron - Profit recovery may lead to increased production. Weekly production rate is 31.95% (up 0.25% week - on - week), weekly output is 10.02 tons (up 2.77% week - on - week) [7] - Electricity cost is expected to decline [7] - Warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration [7] - Declining hot metal output weakens support [7] Silicon Manganese - Weak real - estate market leads to weak demand [8] - Weekly production rate is 40.34% (up 1.13% week - on - week), weekly output is 18.01 tons (up 0.5% week - on - week) [8] - Warehouse receipt inventory is 44.34 tons (down 3.61% week - on - week), total inventory is 66.57 tons (down 2.36% week - on - week) [8] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 7, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 136, the spot price in Ningxia is 5250, etc. [9] Silicon Manganese - On July 7, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 254, the spot price in Ningxia is 5520, etc. [10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - Include silicon iron and silicon manganese market price seasonality, basis seasonality, and futures month - spread seasonality charts [12][13][15] - Include silicon iron and silicon manganese inventory seasonality charts [31]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/1 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 14.32% | 28.1% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 14.62% | 23.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | | | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | 多 | 期 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Ferrosilicon Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 16.28%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 38.0% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 14.87%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 25.0% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished product inventory, short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 15% hedging ratio at SF: 6,200 - 6,250, SM: 6,400 - 6,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at SF: 5,100 - 5,200, SM: 5,300 - 5,400 to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Iron alloys have a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, but the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off-season, the long-term trend of iron alloys remains relatively weak. The previous high inventory and high supply of iron alloys are gradually weakening, and the supply side maintains low supply pressure. Iron alloys will continue the de-stocking trend, but the de-stocking speed has slowed down. There is an expectation of lower electricity prices for iron alloys and the arrival of the wet season in the south, so the cost side still has a downward expectation. The July quotation of manganese ore has been lowered, and the black market is facing the expectation of negative feedback in the off-season demand trading. It is expected that iron alloys will still operate weakly. However, the trading volume of iron alloys has decreased, and some funds have left the market. When the valuation is too low, it is vulnerable to news disturbances. In the short term, there is a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. Wait for the rebound to short [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon profits are at the bottom of the profit range, with production cut drivers, and the futures market may rebound due to production cut disturbances [4] - This week, the silicon ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 68,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.71% [4] Silicon Manganese - The government's control policies for high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations [5] - The total silicon manganese inventory shows a de-stocking trend [5] - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5] - Silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 474,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06%; the total silicon manganese inventory was 680,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - The weekly operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises was 32.69%, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon was 97,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.93% [6] - The coal sector continues to be weak, and there is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of iron alloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak [7] - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 36.39%, a week-on-week increase of 1.09%. The weekly output of silicon manganese was 176,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.85%. The silicon manganese enterprise inventory was 205,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.1% [7] - The July quotation of Comilog Gabon lump ore is 4.25 US dollars/ton degree, a month-on-month decrease of 0.15 US dollars/ton degree [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Ferrosilicon - On June 25, 2025, the silicon ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 86 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 18 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 05 - 09 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 09 - 01 spread was 44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 8 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week-on-week increase of 50 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were 6,415 tons, an increase of 6,415 tons from the previous day and a week-on-week decrease of 8,686 tons [8] Silicon Manganese - On June 25, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 196 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 98 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 78 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was -16 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 05 - 09 spread was 46 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 24 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 09 - 01 spread was -30 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 22 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] - The double-silicon spread was -280 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,400 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 93,468 tons, a day-on-day decrease of 301 tons and a week-on-week decrease of 1,427 tons [10]