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广发期货日报-20260304
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 07:43
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metals are trading in a narrow range with low volatility. The short - term export outlook for steel is weak due to the Iran - US conflict affecting shipping routes to the Persian Gulf. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with demand expectations. Iron - water production is rising, and the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is abundant, and weak raw material prices may drag down steel prices. The reference support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract is oscillating. The 5 - 9 positive spread has widened significantly. Supply pressure persists as global iron ore shipments have increased and port arrivals are falling. Iron - water production is rising, but the resumption of production may be affected by the Two Sessions. The terminal demand recovery needs verification. The inventory situation requires attention. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke - Coke futures are oscillating upwards. The coking profit has recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production has increased slightly, and steel mills' iron - water production has rebounded from a low level. The overall inventory is slightly lower. Short - term coke prices are stable, and there are policy expectations during the Two Sessions. It is recommended to be cautious, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures are oscillating upwards. The spot price in Shanxi is weak, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with the futures. After the holiday, the demand for restocking is weak. Coal mines are resuming production, and the port inventory is high. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract continues to rise slightly. After the holiday, supply has increased slightly but remains at a low level compared to historical periods. Iron - water production is rising, and overall post - holiday demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately high. Short - term supply is tight, and price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract continues to rise. Manganese ore prices are strong, driving up the transaction price of silicomanganese. Supply has increased slightly, and iron - water production is rising. The overall post - holiday demand will continue to improve marginally. Manganese ore port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while some futures contracts had small price changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose by 7 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract fell by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8, a 1.0% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.3 to 165.1, a 3.1% decrease [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1, a 7.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6, an 11.8% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2, a 4.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2, a 17.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6, an 18.5% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 21.6 to 268.4, an 8.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5, a 2.4% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5, a 12.5% increase [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipments increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, a 0.6% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an 8.2% increase [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average dredging volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5, a 15.0% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2, a 2.6% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7, a 2.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, a 0.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0, a 23.3% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Coke futures prices increased. The coking profit improved. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3, a 0.9% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.3% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0, a 0.8% decrease [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures prices increased. The Mongolian coal price increased by 29 to 1181, a 2.5% increase. The daily average production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased significantly. The total coking coal inventory decreased seasonally [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract price increased. The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6, a 0.3% increase. The weekly production increased by 0.1 to 0.9, a 0.6% increase. The demand decreased by 0.3 to 18, a 1.8% decrease. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0, a 1.6% decrease [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract price increased. The manganese ore price was strong. The weekly production increased by 0.4 to 19.7, a 1.8% increase. The demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0, a 1.3% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8, a 0.9% increase [8].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250626
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 01:38
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is in the off - season with high production and potential inventory accumulation pressure. The upward elasticity of steel prices is limited, and the volatility has decreased. It is suggested to try short positions, focus on the support levels of 3000 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 2900 yuan for rebar, or sell out - of - the - money call options. The cost drags down the market, and the demand expectation is weak. Although the decline in off - season demand is better than expected, the terminal demand may weaken in the future [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. The global iron ore shipments increased this week, and the arrival volume at ports continued to rise. The demand side may maintain a relatively high level of hot - metal production in the short term, but the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The port inventory and steel mills' equity ore inventory have increased. In the short term, there is obvious resistance above the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend, while the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but the phased bottom is gradually emerging. The supply is tightening marginally due to environmental protection and other factors, and the demand has rigid support with hot - metal production remaining above 240,000 tons per day. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rallies for spot traders, stay on the sidelines for speculators, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated upward, and the spot was stable with a slight upward trend. The domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilization, and the supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and other factors. The import coal had different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal imports having a profit inversion. The demand had some resilience with hot - metal production remaining above 240,000 tons per day in June, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips for short - term trading and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, while some futures contracts had small fluctuations. The cost of steel production had different changes, and the profit of various regions and varieties decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The output of five major steel products increased by 9.7 thousand tons (1.1%), rebar production increased by 4.6 thousand tons (2.2%), with electric - furnace production decreasing by 1.6 thousand tons (- 6.4%) and converter production increasing by 6.2 thousand tons (3.4%). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.8 thousand tons (0.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 thousand tons (- 1.2%), hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 thousand tons (- 1.5%), and rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 thousand tons (- 1.3%) [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 thousand tons (1.9%), rebar apparent demand decreased by 0.8 thousand tons (- 0.4%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 10.8 thousand tons (3.4%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly. The 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton (2.3%), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 1.9%), and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.9%) [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 178.2 thousand tons (7.5%), the global shipments (weekly) increased by 154.0 thousand tons (4.6%), and the national monthly import volume decreased by 500.3 thousand tons (- 4.9%) [4]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 0.6 thousand tons (0.2%), the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 12.3 thousand tons (4.1%), the national monthly pig - iron production increased by 153.1 thousand tons (2.1%), and the national monthly crude - steel production increased by 52.6 thousand tons (0.6%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 73.9 thousand tons (0.5%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 137.6 thousand tons (1.6%), and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke in some regions remained unchanged, the 09 - contract price increased by 2.7%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.0%. The coking profit (weekly) increased by 23 yuan/ton, with a 100% increase [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 thousand tons (- 0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 thousand tons (0.3%) [7]. Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 thousand tons (0.2%) [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 18.8 thousand tons (- 1.9%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 10.1 thousand tons (- 8.1%), the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 8.6 thousand tons (- 1.34%), and the port inventory remained unchanged [7]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 thousand tons (- 9.0%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal in some regions remained unchanged, the 09 - contract price increased by 2.6%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.4%. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 24 yuan/ton (- 7.5%) [7]. Supply - The raw - coal production decreased by 9.8 thousand tons (- 1.1%), and the clean - coal production decreased by 3.4 thousand tons (- 0.8%) [7]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 thousand tons (- 0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 thousand tons (0.3%) [7]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.1 thousand tons (- 8.84%), the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.3 thousand tons (- 0.3%), the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7 thousand tons (0.14%), and the port inventory decreased by 8.7 thousand tons (- 2.8%) [7].