研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3180 元（-10），北京敬业 3110 元（-10），上海鞍钢热 卷 3220 元（-20），天津河钢热卷 3130 元（-10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面整体下跌，现货价格相比节前小幅下行。节日期间钢联数据公布， 五大材整体仍然增产，铁水生产受节日影响较小；春节期间下游工地停工，钢材总库 存加快累库进度，但螺纹累库速度相比往年偏慢；而钢材出口受出口许可证下滑，海 外制造业陆续结束补库，热卷库存快速累积，目前钢坯及板材库存水平偏高，需求压 力大，品种间表现螺纹强于热卷。节前钢厂原料补库告一段落，今年冬储积极性不 足。目前钢材库存偏高，节后资本支出可能不及预期，需求恢复情况有待观望，钢厂 的悲观预期也可能使今年铁水产量高度有限， ...

节后黑色观点综述 品种观点 ◆ 钢材 长假期间，唐山迁安普方坯价格持稳，报价 2900 元/吨。消息面上，美 国时间 2 月 20 日，最高法院裁定特朗普根据旨在应对国家紧急状态的法 律所推行的大规模关税无效，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上表示，将对全 球商品加征 10%的进口关税，为期 150 天，以代替被判定违法的紧急关 税，随后在 21 日进一步将税率水平提高至 15%。此次被最高法院砍掉 的对华关税，一共两项，包括"10%对等关税"、"10%芬太尼关税"， 合计 20 个百分点，可以简单概括为先砍 20%再加 15%，我国输美商品 关税负担下降，不过特朗普同时发文强调"第 232 条和第 301 条征收的 关税将继续有效"，表明美国对钢铁、铝行业将依然保持较高的关税壁 垒。整体来看，短期关税降了，但关税博弈远没结束。就基本面而言， 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经跌至电炉谷电与长流程成本以下，静态 估值偏低；驱动方面，宏观端，短期国内处于政策真空期，预计海外关 税政策提振有限，节后重点关注钢材库存增幅，是否超预期累积，我们 估算节后钢材库存处于近年农历同期偏低水平，不过略高于去年同期， 另外关注节后需求恢复进度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Coke - Supply: Coke production has increased due to the full implementation of the first round of price hikes, narrowing the losses of coke enterprises and boosting production enthusiasm [5] - Demand: Although steel mill profits have improved after consecutive price cuts, overall demand is weak during the off - season. The daily average hot metal production is expected to remain below 2.3 million tons before the Spring Festival, with limited upward drive [5] - Inventory: Steel mills have replenished their inventories, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Port and total coke inventories have increased. Steel mill inventory levels are currently relatively high compared to the same period, and coke enterprise inventory levels are relatively low [5] - Profit: The losses of independent coke enterprises have narrowed, with a ton - coke profit of - 10 yuan/ton (+45) as of February 6 [5] - Conclusion: The off - season demand is unlikely to improve significantly, driving the market downward. However, due to frequent external coal - related events, the cost support for coke may strengthen in the medium to long term. A medium - to - long - term bullish and volatile approach is recommended, with the coke index expected to operate between 1660 - 1790. Attention should be paid to risk control during the holiday season [5] Coking Coal - Supply: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mine production has decreased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has declined. Coking coal supply is expected to continue to weaken before the festival [7] - Demand: Coking coal daily consumption has increased due to the rise in coke production. However, during the pre - festival off - season, the daily average hot metal production is expected to remain below 2.3 million tons, with limited demand improvement [7] - Inventory: Steel mill and coke enterprise inventories have increased, while coal mine and port inventories have decreased. The total coking coal inventory has increased [7] - Conclusion: Frequent external coal - related events may drive up international coking coal prices, providing some support for domestic prices. A medium - to - long - term bullish and volatile approach is recommended, with the coking coal index expected to operate between 1110 - 1240. Attention should be paid to risk control before the festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Supply - As of February 6, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 631,400 tons (+300), and that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 472,400 tons (+230). The total output of all - sample coking enterprises and 247 steel mills was 1.1038 million tons (+530) [5][17] Profit - As of February 6, the ton - coke profit of independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton (+45) [21] Demand - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal production was 2.2858 million tons (+6000); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons (- 32,700); the steel mill profit rate was 39.39% (+0); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.69% (+0.22); and the blast furnace operating rate was 79.53% (+0.53) [5][25] Inventory - As of February 6, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 827,400 tons (- 16,500); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.9238 million tons (+141,900); the total inventory of four major ports was 2.011 million tons (+30,400), and the total coke inventory was 9.7622 million tons (+155,800) [5][29] Inventory Available Days - As of February 6, the inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants was 12.76 days (+0.22) [32] Basis and Spread - As of February 6, the basis of the 05 contract was - 83, a decrease of 18 from the previous week; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 70.5, a decrease of 4.5. The basis and spread have weakened, and the current basis is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [36] Coking Coal Supply - As of February 6, the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.9253 million tons (- 52,900), with an operating rate of 86.67% (- 2.46); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26,310 tons (- 460), with an operating rate of 35.54% (- 1.26) [8][43] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - Mongolian coal customs clearance has decreased [45] Demand - As of February 6, the total coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 1.09469 million tons (+593,500), with available days of 16.51 days (+0.79), corresponding to a daily consumption of 663,000 tons (+44,000); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 824,200 tons (+98,400), with available days of 13.12 days (+0.09), corresponding to a daily consumption of 628,200 tons (+32,000); the total daily consumption was 1.2912 million tons (+76,000) [50] Inventory - As of February 6, the total port inventory was 2.7276 million tons (- 136,200); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 824,200 tons (+98,400); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1.30239 million tons (+676,000); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 264,650 tons (- 25,300); the total coking coal inventory was 2.664 million tons (+612,900) [8][57] Inventory Available Days - As of February 6, the coking coal inventory available days of 230 independent coking plants was 16.51 days (+0.79); the coking coal inventory available days of 247 steel enterprises was 13.12 days (+0.09) [57] Basis and Spread - As of February 6, the basis of the 05 contract was 69, an increase of 3 from the previous week; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 79, an increase of 5.5 from the previous week. The basis and spread have strengthened, and the coking coal market shows a contango structure [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall black market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation. Steel products show a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand, and there may still be capital outflows before the Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in market trading volume. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices [12]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly short - allocate. The macro - level driving force has weakened, the supply - demand contradiction has continued to accumulate in the short term, and the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - For coal and coke, the current supply - demand contradiction in the market is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing some support for prices. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14]. - For ferroalloys, before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - The closing prices of most futures and spot products in the black industry chain decreased from January 30 to February 6, 2026, except for the scrap steel whose price index increased by 0.61%. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2605 decreased by 1.63%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.92% [8] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Market - Logic: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the average daily hot - metal output also increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday mode, showing a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand. There may be capital outflows before the festival, and the macro - level has little impact on prices [12]. - View: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Macroscopically, the short - term inflation expectation has declined, and the employment has weakened marginally. The domestic economic recovery shows a pulsed characteristic. In terms of supply, although the external ore shipment is in the off - season, it is higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. In terms of demand, the domestic demand has slightly recovered, but the steel mill's profitability is weak, and the terminal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The steel mill's restocking is coming to an end, and the port inventory is at a high level [13]. - View: Short - allocate mainly, conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coal and Coke - Logic: The coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell due to the false rumor of production quota cuts in Indonesia. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the off - season restricts the rebound height. The domestic coal mines are starting to shut down for the holiday, and the output is expected to decline significantly. However, the downstream has stocked up in advance, and there is no continuous upward driving force [14]. - View: The supply - demand contradiction is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing support for prices. But due to the off - season, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas, the US manufacturing PMI has entered the expansion range, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense. Domestically, the three major PMI indices have declined. The prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures have slightly declined. In terms of supply, the output and operating rate of ferromanganese have slightly shrunk, and those of ferrosilicon have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the demand from steel mills has weakened, and the restocking is coming to an end. In terms of inventory, the inventory of ferromanganese has increased, and that of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is expected to remain firm, and the cost of ferrosilicon is well - supported [17]. - View: Before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [17] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - Production: The weekly output last week was 191.68 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 and a year - on - year increase of 7.88. The long - process output was 162.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.79. The short - process output was 28.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.34 and a year - on - year increase of 26.67 [20][23]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 147.64 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.76 and a year - on - year increase of 16.09 [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 365.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 119.45. The steel mill inventory was 153.65 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 66.36. The total inventory was 519.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.04 and a year - on - year decrease of 185.81 [27]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 72; for May, it was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 and a year - on - year increase of 88; for October, it was 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 96 [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production: The weekly output last week was 309.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 [31]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 305.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.87 and a year - on - year increase of 7.11 [31]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 280.45 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 and a year - on - year decrease of 36.92. The steel mill inventory was 78.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.20. The total inventory was 359.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62 and a year - on - year decrease of 55.12 [35]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 34; for May, it was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 and a year - on - year decrease of 4; for October, it was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 18 [45] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 17140.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.45 and a year - on - year increase of 1748.18. The Australian ore inventory was 7903.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.08 and a year - on - year increase of 1155.26. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5536.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 427.29 [49]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 10316.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 348.05 and a year - on - year increase of 821.90. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 36.55, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 and a year - on - year increase of 3.36. The daily consumption was 282.24 million tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.93 [60]. - 247 steel mills' operating rate/profitability: The blast furnace operating rate was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The profitability rate was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13 percentage points [64]. - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipment this week was 2535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 and a year - on - year increase of 200.4. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 1881.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 585.4 and a year - on - year decrease of 17.0 [68] 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - Coke inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 976.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7. The independent coke enterprises' inventory was 82.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 and a year - on - year decrease of 74.0 [93]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2998.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84.18 and a year - on - year increase of 80.0 [100]. - Independent coke enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 10 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45 and a year - on - year increase of 17 [105]. - Independent coke enterprises' capacity utilization rate and daily coke output: The capacity utilization rate last week was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8. The daily coke output was 63.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.93 [109] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On February 6, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 36 yuan/dry ton degree, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 820 and a year - on - year increase of 120. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 680 [132]. - Manganese ore inventory: In the week of January 30, the total port inventory was 435.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 and a year - on - year increase of 42.3. The inventory in Tianjin Port was 332.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8 [136]. - Output: The weekly output of ferromanganese was 190995 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 and a year - on - year decrease of 2345. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 [139][141]. - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese from five major steel products was 116059 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1161 and a year - on - year increase of 2251. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18497.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 261 and a year - on - year increase of 621 [143]. - Inventory: On February 6, the inventory of ferromanganese was 377800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3500 and a year - on - year increase of 227300. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 66860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1040 and a year - on - year decrease of 9380 [147]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - On Friday, iron ore prices declined both during the day and in the night session. Although iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons, the inventory pressure was expected to be acceptable and would not drive the price down. The rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase as the change in molten iron production was minimal approaching the holiday. It is expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Iron ore prices declined on Friday and in the night session [1] Important Information - The China National Machinery Industry Federation predicted that the growth rate of the main indicators of the machinery industry in 2026 would be around 5.5% [1] - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January 2026 was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The China Construction Machinery Association reported that the operating rate of excavators in China in January 2026 was 48.6% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills across the country was 103.1664 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4805 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by the sampled steel mills was 282,240 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,290 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 36.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 days [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 179.1468 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5642 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 171.4071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1845 million tons [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0014 million tons [1] Market Logic - The current daily molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons. As the holiday approached, the change in molten iron production was minimal, so the rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase. Iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons. After comprehensively analyzing the inventory structure, it was expected that the inventory pressure was acceptable and would not drive the price down [1] Trading Strategy - It was expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. At the end of the week, the mainstream market planned to increase coke prices, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 19. Supported by costs, this price increase is likely to be implemented next week [1]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage efforts are increasing, and coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamental situation of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and spot prices still have upward momentum, but the futures market is affected by other varieties in the sector and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. The planned price increase of coke in the mainstream market is likely to be implemented next week. In the future, the fundamental situation of coking coal will improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum and the futures market expected to fluctuate [1]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Coking coal total inventory was 2233.95 million tons, up 64.74 million tons (2.98%) from the previous week [3]. - Coke total inventory was 920.21 million tons, up 4.31 million tons (0.47%) from the previous week [3]. - Steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 228.01 million tons, down 1.49 million tons (-0.65%) from the previous week [3]. - Independent coking enterprises' profit per ton of coke was - 65 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (44.44%) from the previous week [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The main spot prices for iron ore at Rizhao Port are PB powder at 790 RMB/wet ton, mixed powder at 819 RMB/wet ton, and lump ore at 870 RMB/wet ton [1] - As of December 23, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 RMB/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [1] - The optimal delivery product is lump ore, with PB powder and lump ore warehouse costs at 845.7 RMB and 836.9 RMB respectively, resulting in a PB powder basis of 67.2 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Daily iron water production is 2.2655 million tons, down 26,500 tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 78.47%, down 0.16%; and the capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, down 1 percentage point [1] - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.28 million tons to 34.645 million tons, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments at 28.147 million tons, down 1.508 million tons [1] - The inventory at 45 ports is 155.1263 million tons, up 812,100 tons month-on-month, indicating a slight accumulation trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a pattern of accumulation due to high inventory levels, but the marginal accumulation space is expected to decrease [2] - The future price trend will depend on BHP negotiations, iron water trends, and steel mill restocking expectations [2] - Short-term strategies suggest a range trading approach for the May contract, with a reference range of 760-810 RMB [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are further relaxed. The coking coal and coke markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices running weakly. The mid - to long - term strategy is to adopt a bearish approach on rallies. The coke index is expected to operate in the range of 1500 - 1650, and the coking coal index in the range of 950 - 1030 - 1110 [6][8] - An important meeting will be held in mid - December, which may change market expectations and sentiment Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, raw material prices continue to decline, and coke enterprises still have positive profits, with high production enthusiasm. Coupled with the resumption of production of some overhauled coke enterprises, the coke production of coke enterprises and steel mills has increased month - on - month. As of December 5, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 64.53 tons (+0.77), and that of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 46.62 tons (+0.3), with a total output of 111.15 tons (+1.07) [7][15] Profit - After the first round of coke price cuts, the coking profit has narrowed. As of December 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 30 yuan/ton (-16) [6][19] Demand - Terminal demand is poor, steel spot prices are under pressure, steel mills' profits are poor, and the willingness to overhaul is strong. The molten iron output has declined month - on - month. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the molten iron output is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the daily average molten iron output was 232.3 tons (-2.38); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 828.95 tons (-26.76); the profitability rate of steel mills was 36.36% (+1.3); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.08% (-0.9); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.16% (-0.93) [7][23] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has increased month - on - month, and there may be some inventory accumulation pressure in the future; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month; the total coke inventory has decreased month - on - month. As of December 5, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 76.44 tons (+4.68); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 625.25 tons (-0.27); the total inventory of four major ports was 181.3 tons (-6.1), and the total coke inventory was 882.99 tons (-1.69) [7][27] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills' sample coking plants were 11.29 days (+0) [30] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1594 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 9, a decrease of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 149, an increase of 7.5 compared with last week. After the coke price cut, the spot price has fallen more, so the basis has weakened. The far - month contracts are more affected by the coking coal futures, so the spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [34] Coking Coal Supply - Some coal mines in the main production areas have resumed production. Near the end of the year, some coal mines are close to completing their production plans, and the production rhythm may slow down, resulting in a month - on - month decline in domestic coal mine supply. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal will arrive at ports successively in December, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market. As of December 5, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 190.42 tons (-0.92), with an operating rate of 85.59% (-0.42); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 27.12 tons (+0.54), with an operating rate of 36.53% (+0.21) [8][41] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased month - on - month and is at a high level [43] Demand - The coke production has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption of coking coal has increased. However, the molten iron output is still in a downward channel, and the medium - to long - term demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 857.43 tons (-3.5), with available days of 12.68 days (-0.16), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 67.62 tons (-3.5); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03), with available days of 12.88 days (-0.13), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 61.98 tons (+0.39); the total daily consumption was 129.6 tons (+0.99) [8][48] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory levels of coke enterprises and steel mills are at the median level in the same period over the years. The coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month, and there may be an inventory accumulation expectation in the future; the port inventory has increased month - on - month and is at the median level in the same period over the years. The total coking coal inventory has increased. As of December 5, the total port inventory was 296.5 tons (+2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1009.2 tons (-1.1); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 247.01 tons (+23.09); the total coking coal inventory was 2350.98 tons (+20.96) [8][55] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants were 12.68 days (-0.16); and those for 247 steel enterprises were 12.88 days (-0.13) [55] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1168 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 112, an increase of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 84, an increase of 1 compared with last week. Both the spot and futures prices of coking coal have weakened. The expected arrival of seaborne coal and the continuous weakening of demand have led to a larger decline in the futures market, so the basis has strengthened, and the spread has slightly strengthened. The coking coal contracts in different months show a contango structure, indicating that the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [59]

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Black: Export Policy Changes, Steel Prices Fluctuate Weakly" and is dated December 15, 2025 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The implementation of export license management for some steel products may affect steel exports in 2026 [5] 4. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > hot - rolled coil > rebar > coke > coking coal [5][7] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The futures market was mainly in a downward trend, and non - ferrous metals were relatively strong [9] 03 Spot Price - The entire sector declined, and coking coal had the largest decline [16] 04 Profit and Valuation - The immediate profit improved, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [17] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel supply and demand decreased last week, and the inventory was smoothly destocked [5][6][19] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The port iron ore inventory continued to increase last week, and based on the previous shipping data, the future arrivals will still be at a high level. The iron ore supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [6][28] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The domestic raw coal production declined at a low level, but the customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the market expectation weakened. The coking coal inventory gradually accumulated in upstream mines [6][31] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production fluctuated at a low level, and the inventory of coking plants rebounded [33] 09 Variety Spread - The profit on the futures market improved, and the ratio of rebar to coke widened [35] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work. The implementation of export license management for some steel products will start on January 1, 2026. The social financing scale increased in the first 11 months, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry was officially launched [40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal fundamentals will remain weak in the future. The coking coal index contract has fallen below the 1000 - yuan integer mark, and the market bearish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to short on rallies [4]. - This week, black commodities fell across the board, with coking coal being the weakest in the sector. The second - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coking Coal Market - **Market Overview**: Coking coal was the weakest in the black commodity sector this week, with the main contract down more than 10% week - on - week. Supply is at a low level, and inventory is seasonally accumulating. Steel mill maintenance has increased, suppressing raw material demand. The port clearance volume has risen, and the coking coal futures discount has deepened. The second - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved [6]. - **Cost and Basis**: The report provides the coking coal warehouse receipt cost of different varieties and locations, as well as the basis and month - spread data of coking coal contracts [10][14]. - **Supply**: - **Mine Production**: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 189.79 million tons this week, a decrease of 0.63 million tons week - on - week; the daily average output of clean coal was 75 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons week - on - week [22]. - **Coal Washery**: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 27.92 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate was 38.21%, an increase of 1.68% week - on - week [23]. - **Imports**: From January to October, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year. In October, Mongolian coal imports decreased by 10.6% month - on - month and increased by 36.4% year - on - year [24][27]. - **Auction Data**: The coking coal auction挂牌量 increased by 28.24 million tons week - on - week, the成交 rate increased by 12.66 percentage points, and the non - transaction rate decreased by 12.66 percentage points [30]. - **Inventory**: There are data on coking coal total inventory and inventory distribution, but specific inventory values are not detailed in the summary requirements [31][33]. 3.2 Coke Market - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions has increased week - on - week, with national coking profit increasing from 30 to 44 [41]. - **Basis**: The report provides the basis and month - spread data of coke contracts [44]. - **Supply and Demand**: There are sections on coke supply and demand, but specific data details are not elaborated in the summary [48][50]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 20.81 million tons week - on - week to 903.8 million tons. The inventory of steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports showed different changes [61]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts and Futures Positions**: There are sections on registered warehouse receipts and futures positions, but no specific summary of data is made here [62][64]. - **TOP20 Seats Net Long Positions**: There is information on the net long positions of the TOP20 seats in coking coal and coke since July 1, but no specific data summary is provided [66].