1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed, and macro - disturbances have significantly decreased. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to the real situation. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily rising, the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended but hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is low. Iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [2]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The reference range is 780 - 80 yuan/ton, corresponding to 103 - 105 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Recently, macro - disturbances have weakened. The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations and is defined as a preventive cut, with the expectation of continuous rate cuts weakening. Domestic policies are still in the reserve period. The black - series industrial chain is highly differentiated, with the raw material end generally stronger than the finished product end. The expectation of increasing iron ore supply remains unchanged. Steel mill复产 has driven up hot metal production. Although steel mill profits have fallen to the break - even line, the willingness of steel mills to actively cut production is still insufficient, but pre - holiday restocking is basically over, and the short - term upward driving force has weakened [2]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipments have decreased significantly, and Brazil's shipments have decreased slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the five - week average is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side continues to weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. This period has seen the continuation of steel mill复产 in blast furnaces, mainly due to the regular resumption of production after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang. Domestic demand is higher than the August average (240.5). The daily average hot metal production this period is 242.36 tons (month - on - month increase of 1.34). As steel mill production costs rise and finished product prices weaken, blast furnace profits have declined from a high level and are approaching the break - even level, and the steel mill profitability rate continues to decline. The pre - holiday restocking demand is basically over. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The steel mill inventory level has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to high domestic demand and insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a potential rebound in coking prices, driven by supply constraints and steady downstream demand, despite some steel mills experiencing profit declines [6] Supply - As of September 25, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 663,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons [3] - The total coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 464,000 tons per day, also down by 2,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,128,000 tons per day, a decrease of 6,000 tons week-on-week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,423,600 tons, an increase of 13,400 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, up by 0.47% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate for pig iron production was 90.86%, an increase of 0.50% week-on-week [4] - The profitability rate for steel mills was 58.01%, down by 0.86% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of September 25, the total coking coal inventory was 9.816 million tons, an increase of 97,000 tons week-on-week [5] - Independent coking enterprises held 630,000 tons of coking coal inventory, a decrease of 34,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.613 million tons, an increase of 166,000 tons week-on-week [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.573 million tons, down by 35,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Trends - As of September 25, the main coking coal futures contract (2601) rose by 30.0 (+1.73%) to 1,760.0, while the far-month contract (2605) increased by 29.0 (+1.55%) to 1,900.0 [1] - The price of premium wet quenching metallurgical coke in Lüliang was reported at 1,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while the trade price in Rizhao was 1,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [1][6] Market Outlook - The recent price adjustments by major steel mills, with a cumulative reduction of 50/55 yuan/ton, have led to expectations of a gradual rebound in coking coal prices, potentially allowing for 2-3 rounds of price increases [6] - The steel industry is under pressure to control production capacity and reduce pollution, with a focus on the actual implementation of these measures in Shanxi province [6] - The market is advised to monitor the fluctuations in the steel market and the fulfillment of seasonal demand expectations during September and October [6]

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, similar to hot-rolled steel, short-term trend is balanced and operability is poor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, also bullish with limited market operability [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, short-term trend balanced and hard to operate [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing potential negative feedback pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the steel plate expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by high iron water demand and potential policy benefits [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with prices having large volatility [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are also influenced by policies, and their supply and demand are in a dynamic balance [7][8] Summary by Category Steel - Thread table demand and production continue to decline, inventory accumulates, while hot-rolled demand recovers, production increases, and inventory slightly drops [2] - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with real estate investment falling sharply and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down, but steel exports remain high [2] - The steel plate has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with cost support at the bottom [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decline significantly, domestic arrivals decrease slightly, and port inventories stabilize and rebound [3] - Terminal demand rises slightly, and there is a strong expectation of iron water production recovery this week, along with pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level due to policy benefits and market speculation [3] Coke - The second round of coke price cuts is in progress, and the coking production decreases slightly [4] - Coke inventory rises, and traders' purchasing willingness declines [4] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and policy expectations [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal production increases due to the end of the military parade, and spot auction transactions weaken [6] - Coking coal inventory decreases overall, with production-side inventory slightly increasing [6] - Coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with large volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese weakens, and attention is paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [7] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon manganese production continues to increase [7] - Manganese ore prices are expected to rise, and long-term manganese ore inventory is likely to accumulate [7] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron weakens, and attention is also paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [8] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon iron supply recovers significantly [8] - Silicon iron inventory decreases slightly, and the market pays attention to policy continuity [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Bearish [3] - Scrap steel: Neutral [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market fluctuated downward. Hot metal production decreased slightly but remained in positive year-on-year growth. It is expected that hot metal production will decline significantly next week. Last week, rebar production increased significantly, inventory accumulated substantially, and apparent demand recovered. Hot-rolled coil production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated marginally, and apparent demand declined. The total output of five finished steel products increased slightly week-on-week, inventory accumulated overall, and demand recovered slightly. In terms of valuation, the profits of long-process steel mills continued to narrow, and short-process steel mills had a slight loss during off-peak hours. The eighth round of coke price increase failed, and the market reported expectations of a price cut in the future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in hot metal production and the recovery of exports. The month spread structure is in contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market reported that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the future, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, continuing to decline slightly week-on-week. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China is 158 yuan/ton during peak hours and 30 yuan/ton during off-peak hours. The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory is still at a low level. The billet inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - As of August 29, 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.62 million tons week-on-week, and continued positive year-on-year growth. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 83.2%, a slight decrease week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 56.54%. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, a slight decrease week-on-week [10]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties was 8.8461 million tons, an increase of 0.0655 million tons from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.2056 million tons, an increase of 0.0591 million tons week-on-week; hot-rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, a decrease of 0.005 million tons week-on-week. Cold-rolled output increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, both significantly higher than the historical average [12]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week was 8.5777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0478 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.0421 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0941 million tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.2072 million tons, a decrease of 0.0055 million tons week-on-week [31][34]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly week-on-week. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while that in the south increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in East China continued to decline slightly and was significantly lower than the same period last year [52]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 555,200 tons, a slight increase week-on-week and still higher than the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 1.3301 million tons, an increase week-on-week and slightly lower than the same period [68]. Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market reported that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased significantly and were at a low level compared to the same period in history [119]. - The table shows the data for each month in 2025, including initial steel mill inventory, initial social inventory, pig iron output, crude steel output, import volume, export volume, total consumption, domestic production-demand balance, ending steel mill inventory, ending social inventory, surplus, year-on-year output growth, year-on-year consumption growth, cumulative year-on-year output growth, and cumulative year-on-year consumption growth [120].

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: With good blast furnace profits and improved electric furnace profits, steel mills are highly motivated to produce, leading to high molten iron output. However, demand remains weak, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen. Despite recent downward trends, policy disturbances and the Fed's loose signals may trigger a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have slightly increased, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. The supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, but after continuous decline, the short-term downside space may be limited, and a short-term rebound is possible [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron output has increased, environmental protection restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. The fundamental situation is moderately bearish, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. The supply-demand balance is relatively stable, and short-term rebound is expected due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat compared to the previous period, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. Although the futures price has a premium over the warehouse receipt cost and there is downward correction space in the medium term, short-term rebound is possible due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply-demand balance is loosening, production is increasing, and the steel mill restocking is completed. Manganese ore shipments have decreased, but inventory is stable. The cost side provides some support, and short-term rebound may occur under macro - sentiment influence, while the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production is increasing, demand is declining, and inventory pressure is high. It may follow the market for a weak short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][17][18]. Detailed Summaries Rebar - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3224, 3261, and 3138 respectively, with price increases of 29, 31, and 19 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: High production enthusiasm of steel mills, weak demand, and expected loosening of supply - demand balance [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible due to policy and Fed signals [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3377, 3388, and 3389 respectively, with price increases of 25, 30, and 28 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a loosening supply - demand trend [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible after continuous decline [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Supply - Demand**: Increased molten iron output, less - than - expected environmental protection restrictions, completed restocking of steel mills, and accumulating port inventories [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1736.0, 1825.5, and 1652.0 respectively, with price increases of 57.5, 56.0, and 25.0 [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Relatively stable supply - demand balance, with stable production and inventory [1][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1215.5, 1261.5, and 1061.5 respectively, with price increases of 53.5, 52.0, and 13.5 [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, and stable raw material demand [1][13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][13][14]. Manganese Silicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5898, 5946, and 5798 respectively, with price increases of 66, 65, and 56 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Loosening supply - demand balance, increased production, and completed steel mill restocking [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible under macro - sentiment influence, medium - term sell - on - rallies strategy [1][17][18]. Ferrosilicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5662, 5790, and 5494 respectively, with price increases of 46, 44, and 48 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Increasing production, declining demand, and high inventory pressure [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, short - term weak rebound, advisable to wait and see [1][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - **Coke**: The sixth round of coke price increase has been implemented, leading to positive profits for coke enterprises and a rebound in coke production. Hot metal production remains at a high level, strongly supporting the demand side. Coke supply and demand are tight, and the total coke inventory is decreasing. The coking coal cost has a significant impact on coke, so attention should be paid to coal mine supply. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coke index expected to trade between 1600 - 1780. Key events to watch include coke price increases/decreases, hot metal production, steel sales, and coke enterprise inventories [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production is at a low level, and the upcoming September 3 parade may further reduce production. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high. Coke production is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. The downstream replenishment intensity has slowed down, with middle and lower - stream inventories decreasing and upstream coal mine inventories increasing. There may be an expected increase in seaborne coal imports. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coking coal index expected to trade between 1120 - 1300. Key events to watch include domestic coal mine production, hot metal production, Mongolian coal customs clearance, and downstream replenishment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - After the sixth round of price increase, coke enterprise profits turned positive, coke production of coke enterprises rebounded, while that of steel mills declined, but the total coke production increased. As of August 15, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.38 million tons (+0.28), that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.73 million tons (-0.07), and the total output was 112.11 million tons (+0.21) [16]. Profit - The sixth round of price increase led to positive profits for coke enterprises. As of August 15, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 20 yuan/ton (+36) [20]. Demand - Last week, hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month. Supported by non - five major steel products demand and good steel mill profits, the seasonal decline in hot metal production is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, strongly supporting coke demand. As of August 15, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons (+0.34); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 8716300 tons (+24200); the steel mill profitability rate was 65.8% (-2.6); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.22% (+0.13); the blast furnace operating rate was 83.59% (-0.16) [24]. Inventory - Last week, coke inventories at all levels decreased. Steel mills actively purchased, and the inventory of upstream coke enterprises continued to decline. The total coke inventory decreased. As of August 15, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 625100 tons (-72200); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6098000 tons (-94800); the total inventory of four major ports was 2151100 tons (-30400), and the total coke inventory was 8874200 tons (-197400) [28]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants decreased to 10.83 days (-0.08) [32]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1605 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 125, the May contract was - 227, and the September contract was - 48. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [35]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 76.5, and the January - May contracts was - 102. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [39]. Coking Coal Supply - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production continued to decline, and the September 3 parade is expected to further reduce production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100000 tons. Seaborne coal may have a certain increase, which will have a bearish impact on the futures market. As of August 15, the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1879100 tons (-3600), with an operating rate of 83.73% (-0.16); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26400 tons (+360), with an operating rate of 36.51% (+0.29) [44]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has reached over 100000 tons [46]. Demand - Coke production increased month - on - month but is at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. As of August 15, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 8294100 tons (-33400), with available days of 11.93 days (-0.11), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 695200 tons (+3600); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600), with available days of 12.97 days (-0.02), and the converted daily consumption was 621300 tons (-1200); the total daily consumption was 1316500 tons (+2300) [51]. Coal Washing Plant Inventory - Due to reduced downstream replenishment enthusiasm, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased. As of August 15, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2970300 tons (+89200) [55]. Inventory - After a period of replenishment, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory has weakened. Last week, coke enterprises, steel mills, and ports all reduced their inventories, while coal mine inventories increased. The total coking coal inventory decreased. As of August 15, the total port inventory was 2554900 tons (-218500); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9768800 tons (-110400); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 2576700 tons (+120100); the total coking coal inventory was 22958400 tons (-237400). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.93 days (-0.11); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.97 days (-0.02) [62]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1008 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 223, the May contract was - 279, and the September contract was - 73. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [67]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 149.5, and the January - May contracts was - 56. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Market speculation sentiment has cooled, and with exchange rule restrictions, coal prices are gradually returning to rationality. Fundamentals have improved, but short - term price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Summary by Related Catalog Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated sharply and closed higher in the late session. The spot market price was lagging behind the futures and remained relatively strong, with the 5th round of coke price increase implemented yesterday [2] Supply - side - Last week, coal production in Shanxi mines decreased, with some mines reducing output due to underground problems and completion of monthly tasks. Regarding the tracking of over - production issues, regions in Shanxi (except Lvliang) received documents and started verifying production. The impact on short - term coking coal output may be limited, but the long - term impact on coal mine production should be noted. The Australian coal import window closed again, and Mongolian coal customs clearance declined after a brief surge [2] Demand - side - Last week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills slowed down slightly. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories stabilized after rising from a low level. Last week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 58.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week but an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market is expected to remain strong. The recent positive arbitrage by spot - futures traders has helped digest inventory, and there was no inventory accumulation during the off - season despite high production. If northern steel mills cut production in August and demand recovers in the peak season, it can support high iron - water production in the third quarter and the valuation of the black series. Technically, steel prices have broken through previous highs, and long positions can be considered [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Global iron ore shipments increased last week, but those from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume has decreased, and iron - water production has remained high. Steel exports are strong, and short - term iron - water production is resilient. Terminal demand has shown a strong performance during the off - season. In the inventory aspect, port inventory increased slightly last week, and the port clearance volume decreased. In the future, iron - water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will continue to improve, providing support for raw materials. However, there are new supply - side policy expectations, and iron ore prices are likely to follow the rise of steel prices due to production cuts [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal futures showed a bottom - bouncing trend. For coke, the factory price has been raised, and the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented. Supply is still tight as coal mine复产 is slow, and demand has been supported by the recovery of blast furnaces after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. For coking coal, the spot auction price is generally stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is tight, and demand has increased as steel mills have stepped up restocking. Although there was a limit - down in the futures market due to regulatory intervention, the spot market still has price - increase expectations. For both, speculative trading should be cautious, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on coke/coking coal and short on iron ore [6]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions, have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3390 yuan/ton to 3430 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar increased from 3311 yuan/ton to 3399 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab billets changed, with the steel billet price rising by 70 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton. The costs of different types of rebar production decreased, and the profits of steel products in different regions and varieties also decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 103 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 4.6 to 538.6, a 0.9% decrease, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 2.3 to 345.2, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume increased by 2.1 to 12.2, a 20.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a 5.0% increase, and that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a 2.6% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore types decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe decreased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a 5.5% decrease. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a 3.0% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a 2.4% decrease. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a 0.8% decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a 0.7% increase. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 and 01 contract prices increased, and the basis decreased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased. For coking coal, the 09 and 01 contract prices also increased, and the basis changed. The profit of sample coal mines increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills also increased slightly. The weekly raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The weekly iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of coking plants and ports decreasing and that of steel mills increasing slightly. The coking coal inventory of steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship [6].

Supply - Global shipments decreased by 78,000 tons to 29.871 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments increasing by 810,000 tons to 24.198 million tons [1] - The four major mining companies' shipments rose by 132,000 tons to 2.133 million tons, while shipments from other non-mainstream countries fell by 88,000 tons to 489,000 tons [1] - The total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.621 million tons, an increase of 178,200 tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons [1] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, up by 0.31% [1] - The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity reached 90.89%, an increase of 0.98% [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 60.17%, up by 0.43% [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with average daily dispatch volume rising, while steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased [1] - The inventory at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [1] - The average daily dispatch volume at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 32,300 tons [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory was 88.2216 million tons, a decrease of 1.5748 million tons [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore September contract showed a strong upward trend this week, with a slight decrease in global shipment volume but an increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil [2] - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased slightly, and the demand side saw a recovery in pig iron production, returning to over 2.4 million tons per day [2] - Steel mill profit margins remain high, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to announce a growth plan for key industries, which may support demand [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to remain strong, with strategies suggesting to buy on dips [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the raw coal inventory of coking and steel enterprises is low and there is some procurement, the decline in hot metal during the off - season of finished products affects market sentiment, and some enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw coal [2]. - The supply of coking coal is difficult to increase, and the hot metal output is rising, but the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises has slowed down, and steel prices are weak [4]. - The supply - demand pattern of coke is improving. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, the entry of some speculative traders, and the increase in procurement by steel mills, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises has decreased significantly, and the cost support has been strengthened. It is expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. - The increase in hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate are positive factors for coke, while the compression of steel mill profit margins and the partial over - consumption of replenishment demand are negative factors [7]. Summary by Directory Daily Views of Coking Coal - Fundamental: Some coal mines stopped production due to accidents and relocation, and the rest were operating normally. With downstream replenishment, the market trading atmosphere improved, and the inventory in production areas decreased. However, coking enterprises were cautious in purchasing raw coal due to poor profits, and the market remained stable [2]. - Basis: The spot market price was 940, and the basis was 100.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory was 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week, including 774 million tons in steel mills, 312 million tons in ports, and 669.5 million tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line was upward, and the price was above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main position: The main position of coking coal was net short, and short positions increased [2]. - Expectation: The raw coal inventory in coking and steel enterprises was at a low level, and there was appropriate procurement. However, the decline in hot metal during the off - season of finished products affected market sentiment, and it was expected that the price of coking coal would remain stable in the short - term [2]. Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Positive: Rising hot metal output and difficult supply increase [4]. - Negative: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Daily Views of Coke - Fundamental: The price of coking coal strengthened, compressing the profits of coking enterprises. However, with the entry of some speculative traders and the appropriate replenishment by steel mills, the supply - demand pattern of coke improved [5]. - Basis: The spot market price was 1340, and the basis was - 93, with the spot at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory was 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week, including 642.8 million tons in steel mills, 203.1 million tons in ports, and 87.3 million tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line was upward, and the price was above the 20 - day line [5]. - Main position: The main position of coke was net short, and short positions decreased [5]. - Expectation: With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, the entry of some speculative traders, and the increase in procurement by steel mills, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises decreased significantly, and the cost support was strengthened. It was expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. Factors Affecting Coke - Positive: Rising hot metal output and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Negative: Compression of steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - The price of port metallurgical coke on July 4 (17:30) showed different trends, with some prices decreasing by 10, some remaining unchanged, and the price of first - class metallurgical coke in Qingdao Port increasing by 12 [10]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory was 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory was 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - Steel mill inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74%, the same as last week [35]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39].