【现货】 主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉-4至790元/湿吨，巴混-4至819元/湿吨，卡粉-4持平至870 元/湿吨。 截至12月19日，45港库存15512.63万吨，环比+81.21万吨；日均疏港量环比延续下行趋势，到港量中性 偏高水平下港口库存延续小幅累库。钢厂进口矿库存环-110.25至8723.95万吨，暂未见钢厂明显补库行 为出现，主要由于铁水减产下补库行为不足。 【观点】 截止12月23日收盘，铁矿主力合约对昨收-0.38%(-3)，收于778.5元/吨。 日均铁水产量226.55万吨，环比-2.65万吨；高炉开工率78.47%，环比-0.16%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 84.93%，环比-1个百分点；钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比持平。 【供给】 本期全球发运环比小幅下滑，但整体仍维持高位。全球发运-128万吨至3464.5万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运 总量2814.7万吨，环比减少150.8万吨。澳洲发运量1950.6万吨，环比减少102万吨，其中澳洲发往中国 的量1694.5万吨，环比减少7.6万吨。巴西发运量864.1万吨，环比减少48.8万吨。45港口到港量2646.7万 吨，环 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are further relaxed. The coking coal and coke markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices running weakly. The mid - to long - term strategy is to adopt a bearish approach on rallies. The coke index is expected to operate in the range of 1500 - 1650, and the coking coal index in the range of 950 - 1030 - 1110 [6][8] - An important meeting will be held in mid - December, which may change market expectations and sentiment Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, raw material prices continue to decline, and coke enterprises still have positive profits, with high production enthusiasm. Coupled with the resumption of production of some overhauled coke enterprises, the coke production of coke enterprises and steel mills has increased month - on - month. As of December 5, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 64.53 tons (+0.77), and that of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 46.62 tons (+0.3), with a total output of 111.15 tons (+1.07) [7][15] Profit - After the first round of coke price cuts, the coking profit has narrowed. As of December 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 30 yuan/ton (-16) [6][19] Demand - Terminal demand is poor, steel spot prices are under pressure, steel mills' profits are poor, and the willingness to overhaul is strong. The molten iron output has declined month - on - month. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the molten iron output is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the daily average molten iron output was 232.3 tons (-2.38); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 828.95 tons (-26.76); the profitability rate of steel mills was 36.36% (+1.3); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.08% (-0.9); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.16% (-0.93) [7][23] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has increased month - on - month, and there may be some inventory accumulation pressure in the future; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month; the total coke inventory has decreased month - on - month. As of December 5, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 76.44 tons (+4.68); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 625.25 tons (-0.27); the total inventory of four major ports was 181.3 tons (-6.1), and the total coke inventory was 882.99 tons (-1.69) [7][27] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills' sample coking plants were 11.29 days (+0) [30] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1594 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 9, a decrease of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 149, an increase of 7.5 compared with last week. After the coke price cut, the spot price has fallen more, so the basis has weakened. The far - month contracts are more affected by the coking coal futures, so the spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [34] Coking Coal Supply - Some coal mines in the main production areas have resumed production. Near the end of the year, some coal mines are close to completing their production plans, and the production rhythm may slow down, resulting in a month - on - month decline in domestic coal mine supply. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal will arrive at ports successively in December, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market. As of December 5, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 190.42 tons (-0.92), with an operating rate of 85.59% (-0.42); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 27.12 tons (+0.54), with an operating rate of 36.53% (+0.21) [8][41] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased month - on - month and is at a high level [43] Demand - The coke production has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption of coking coal has increased. However, the molten iron output is still in a downward channel, and the medium - to long - term demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 857.43 tons (-3.5), with available days of 12.68 days (-0.16), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 67.62 tons (-3.5); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03), with available days of 12.88 days (-0.13), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 61.98 tons (+0.39); the total daily consumption was 129.6 tons (+0.99) [8][48] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory levels of coke enterprises and steel mills are at the median level in the same period over the years. The coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month, and there may be an inventory accumulation expectation in the future; the port inventory has increased month - on - month and is at the median level in the same period over the years. The total coking coal inventory has increased. As of December 5, the total port inventory was 296.5 tons (+2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1009.2 tons (-1.1); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 247.01 tons (+23.09); the total coking coal inventory was 2350.98 tons (+20.96) [8][55] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants were 12.68 days (-0.16); and those for 247 steel enterprises were 12.88 days (-0.13) [55] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1168 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 112, an increase of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 84, an increase of 1 compared with last week. Both the spot and futures prices of coking coal have weakened. The expected arrival of seaborne coal and the continuous weakening of demand have led to a larger decline in the futures market, so the basis has strengthened, and the spread has slightly strengthened. The coking coal contracts in different months show a contango structure, indicating that the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [59]

黑色：出口政策有变 钢价震荡偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 周度报告：出口政策有变 钢价震荡偏弱 品种 基本面分析 展望 板块综述：上周黑色板块集体走弱，焦煤领跌，周度跌幅约10%，品种间强弱关系为铁矿>热卷>螺纹>焦炭>焦煤。宏观方面：一 系列重磅事件相继落地，美联储12月如期降息25个基点，国内中央经济工作会议在北京召开，定调明年经济工作。产业方面：上周钢材 供需双降，库存顺畅去化，随着铁水产量持续走低，压力逐步向原料端传导，盘面交易负反馈。另外，值得重点关注的是，上周五商务 部、海关总署公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月1日起执行，可能影响明年钢材出口。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，静态估值偏低；驱动方面，重磅会议相 | 低估值、弱驱动，钢价 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 继落地，对盘面提振有限，我国再对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存在走弱预期，产业方 | 震荡偏弱 ...

中辉期货双焦周报 弱现实逐步兑现，双焦承压下跌 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/12/12 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司,上海钢联 来源:上海钢联,中辉期货有限公司 双焦观点摘要 【后市展望】：从供应端来看，当前焦煤处于"内紧外松"的格局，即国产煤供应收紧，但有进口煤作为补充。 需求方面，从季节性来看，当前时间节点至明年一月份，铁水产量仍有一定的下降空间。因此，焦煤基本面在 未来一段时间内仍将维持偏弱姿态。截至本周五，焦煤指数合约已跌破1000元整数关口，主力合约增仓约2.7 万手，市场看空情绪较浓。策略上前期空单可继续持有，新单关注阶段性反弹后逢高做空的机会。 【风险与关注】：宏观情绪、国内煤矿安全检查、能源保供、焦炭提降、铁水产量下行等。 2 【市场概况】：本周黑色商品全线下跌，焦煤依然是板块中最弱的品种，主力合约周跌幅超10%。从供需层 面来看，受煤矿年度生产任务完成和换工作面等因素影响，产地供应量仍处同期低位水平，库存维持季节性累 库。下游方面，近期钢厂检修逐渐增多，铁水产量环比 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 宏观落地，消息纷扰 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/12/13 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 估值驱动 | 铁矿石基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 周发运量 | 进口利润 | 高低品价差 | 钢厂盈利率 | 铁水产量 | 47港库存 | | 数据 | 澳洲发运量1967.4 61.03元/吨 万吨，巴西发运量 | -13.33元/湿吨 | PB-超特粉价差111元 /吨 ;卡粉-PB粉价差 | 35.93% | 229.2万吨 | 16111.47万吨 | | | 687.9万吨 | | 83元/吨 | | | | | 多空评分 | 0 -0.5 | 0 | 0 | -0 ...

逢高试空 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 库存再次回升，上方价格压力明确 投资观点： 震荡偏弱 报告日期 2025—11-28 专题报告 ⚫ 供给（中性）：近期发运到港基本符合预期，供给端较为稳定。 ⚫ 投资建议 ⚫ 风险提示 资料来源：钢联数据、国贸期货研究院 从业资格号：F0286636 投资咨询号：Z0010820 分析师：薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询号：Z0022680 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 铁矿现货成交 ma5 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 2022 2023 2024 2025 重点关注国内外宏观政策和产业政策的变动，以及产业链的突发事 件。 | 铁矿石（I） | | --- | 分析师：张宝慧 ⚫ 需求（中性）：本期钢厂铁水产量小幅下滑至 234.68 万吨（- 1.6），主要南方地区部分钢厂亏损加剧叠加需求走若导致钢厂检 修。钢厂盈利比例延续下滑，环比下滑 2.6%至 35.06%。根据检修计 划预计铁水仍将小幅下滑。 ⚫ 库存（偏弱）：本期 47 港日均疏港量上涨 1.67 万吨至 345.06 万吨 的高位，压港船舶下滑下，港 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided in the given content - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. The steel market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the upside is restricted by weak demand [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to abundant carbon supply, seasonal decline in iron - water production, and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - For silicon manganese, the bottom - support expectation has shifted downward due to factors such as the expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price and the slow increase in inventory [7]. - For ferrosilicon, the bottom - support strength will be tested as the supply remains at a high level, although the overall demand still has some resilience [8]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand for thread improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory began to decline [2]. - Downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2]. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market fluctuated today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was still stronger than the same period. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly to the highest level this year, and the port inventory decreased last week and is expected to resume the accumulation trend this week [3]. - The apparent demand for steel rebounded from a low level last week, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is still weakening. Pig - iron production is in a seasonal decline trend, and the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production is slightly decreasing. Coke inventory has increased slightly, downstream purchases on a small scale as needed, and inventory changes are not significant. Traders' purchasing willingness is average [4]. - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price fluctuated weakly during the day. Attention should be paid to whether the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles will remain low due to weather factors [6]. - Coking - coal mine production has decreased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price [7]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Silicon - manganese weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Spot ore prices have mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The bottom - support expectation has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and blue - charcoal price [8]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, with the short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, with the short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry has weak domestic demand, and although the macro - sentiment has improved, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient. The iron ore market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Coke and coking coal are expected to be in a strong and volatile state. Silicon manganese has strong price support at the bottom, and silicon ferrosilicon is likely to rise [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Steel - Today's futures market rebounded slightly. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased month - on - month, production declined, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand for hot roll dropped significantly, production decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The high - level iron - making water production declined, and the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The futures market has gradually stabilized in the short term, but the rebound momentum is still insufficient [2] Iron Ore - Today's futures market fluctuated, and the basis has strengthened recently. The global shipment decreased month - on - month, with Australia and Brazil both showing declines. The domestic arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period. Due to the decline in steel demand in the off - season and increased losses of steel mills, iron - making water production continued to decrease last week. The futures market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [3] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. After the third round of price increases was quickly implemented, there is an expectation of a fourth round. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream demand is weak, and the steel industry has a strong desire to suppress raw material prices. The futures price is at a premium, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. Recently, Mongolian coal imports have increased, and the customs clearance volume has remained high. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and the total inventory increased slightly. With the approaching safety inspection in major coal - producing areas, its impact should be noted. The futures price is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [6] Silicon Manganese - The price was in a strong and volatile state during the day. The demand side shows a continuous decline in iron - making water production. Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and inventory gradually increased. The price of manganese ore has a strong bottom - support, and the price is expected to be stable [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price was in a strong and volatile state during the day. The demand side shows a continuous decline in iron - making water production, but export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Supply remains high, and inventory has been decreasing. Due to the increase in electricity and blue - carbon prices, the price is likely to rise [8]