投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪回暖，铁矿石期价低位回升，但其供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持 续回落，且钢市产业矛盾未缓解，叠加限产扰动再现，需求料将延续下行。与此同时，天气因素扰动 下国内港口矿石到货超预期回落，但海外矿石发运维持高位，按船期推算后续到货将回升，且内矿生 产正常，矿石供应高位趋稳。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，铁矿石价格低位回升，但矿石供应维持高位， 而需求持续走弱，供强需弱局面下矿石基本面表现不佳，高估值矿价易承压，多空因素博弈下预计矿 价延续震荡运行态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Iron Ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA20. The core logic is the market sentiment shift and the high - level adjustment of ore prices [1]. - The current supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The steel mills' production is stable, the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased, and the steel mills' profitability is good, so the demand remains at a relatively high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production has weakened, resulting in weak ore supply. Currently, the iron ore fundamentals are good under the situation of weak supply and stable demand, but the relatively negative factors are the high valuation and the weakening market sentiment. In the short term, the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support level of MA20, and the core logic is the market sentiment shift and the high - level adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has shifted, leading to a collective decline in ferrous metals and a high - level decline in ore prices. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The steel mills' production is stable, the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased, and the steel mills' profitability is good, so the demand remains at a relatively high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production has weakened, resulting in weak ore supply. Under the situation of weak supply and stable demand, the iron ore fundamentals are good, but the relatively negative factors are the high valuation and the weakening market sentiment. In the short term, the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2].