Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 803.0 yuan, with a current price of 800.5 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.09% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Yide Futures indicates that iron ore still has bullish support and remains a buy due to high supply levels and sufficient steel mill profits, with expectations driven by winter stockpiling and valuation recovery [2] - New Century Futures highlights a persistent theme of "loose supply, low demand, and port accumulation," with expectations for a decline in steel exports due to new licensing regulations, suggesting a bearish outlook for raw materials [3] - Donghai Futures anticipates a short-term range-bound movement for iron ore prices, influenced by a slight recovery in iron water production and steel mill profitability, while noting an increase in port inventories [3]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore are under pressure, with supply expected to increase and demand remaining weak. However, due to recent rumors in the coking coal and coke markets and news related to steel exports, the sentiment in the black metal sector has been boosted, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. Nevertheless, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upside of iron ore prices. After the rebound, prices may weaken again [11] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On December 23, the main iron ore futures contract 2605 oscillated weakly, opening lower and then oscillating downward. It oscillated in the afternoon and recovered slightly at the end of the session, closing at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [7] - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: On December 23, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port increased by 1 - 3 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning down. The red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract increased [9] - **Future Outlook**: - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly by 140.7 million tons to 2748.6 million tons, but remained at a relatively high level. According to historical patterns, as the end of the year approaches, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase [10] - **Demand**: The total output of the five major steel products decreased again, reaching a new low since September 2024. Among them, the output of hot - rolled coils declined the most, possibly related to the production profit of each variety. The average daily pig iron output has declined for 5 consecutive weeks and has now fallen to a relatively low level of about 2.26 million tons, indicating weak iron ore demand [10][11] - **Inventory**: Currently, steel mills are replenishing inventory on an as - needed basis. The inventory available days have increased by 1 day to 21 days compared to last week, but the absolute inventory of steel mills is still decreasing. As the New Year's Day holiday approaches, steel mills may have a small - scale replenishment, but the increase will be limited. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 157 million tons, a new high since mid - March 2022, and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [11] 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft, emphasizing the need to plan a number of major projects, carriers, and projects to drive the overall situation, accumulate new momentum for future development, and support current domestic demand expansion and economic stability [12] - From December 22 to 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that in 2026, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on controlling new supplies, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies according to local conditions, revitalizing and utilizing existing land through urban renewal and village - in - city renovation, and promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel markets, including prices, spreads, shipments, arrival volumes, inventory, production, and consumption data, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [14][22][32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content, skipped. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue an oscillating trend due to the game between bullish and bearish factors. The high - valued ore price is likely to face pressure under the situation of strong supply and weak demand [2]. - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price has bottomed out and rebounded [1]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the iron ore futures price has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling. With the industrial contradictions in the steel market unresolved and the resurgence of production restrictions, demand is expected to continue to decline [2]. - Affected by weather factors, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has unexpectedly declined, but overseas ore shipments remain high. According to shipping schedules, subsequent arrivals will increase, and domestic ore production is normal, so the ore supply is stabilizing at a high level [2]. - Currently, although the market sentiment has warmed up and the iron ore price has rebounded from a low level, the supply remains high while the demand continues to weaken. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the ore fundamentals are poor, and the high - valued ore price is prone to pressure [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Iron Ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA20. The core logic is the market sentiment shift and the high - level adjustment of ore prices [1]. - The current supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The steel mills' production is stable, the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased, and the steel mills' profitability is good, so the demand remains at a relatively high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production has weakened, resulting in weak ore supply. Currently, the iron ore fundamentals are good under the situation of weak supply and stable demand, but the relatively negative factors are the high valuation and the weakening market sentiment. In the short term, the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support level of MA20, and the core logic is the market sentiment shift and the high - level adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has shifted, leading to a collective decline in ferrous metals and a high - level decline in ore prices. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The steel mills' production is stable, the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased, and the steel mills' profitability is good, so the demand remains at a relatively high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production has weakened, resulting in weak ore supply. Under the situation of weak supply and stable demand, the iron ore fundamentals are good, but the relatively negative factors are the high valuation and the weakening market sentiment. In the short term, the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2].