投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 供需格局未改善，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 铁矿石供需格局表现偏弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且钢厂盈利状况不佳，需求 弱势格局未变，易承压矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，海外矿商发运虽有所回落，但仍是 年内高位，海外矿石供应积极，相应的内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位 ...

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局未好转，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗持续走弱，且钢厂盈利状况不佳，矿石需 求弱势难改。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，海外矿商发运虽有所回落，但依旧是年内高位，海 外矿石供应积极，相应的内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多因素发酵支撑矿价震荡 走高，但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market remains in a state of high - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side". The fundamental situation has not improved, and the upward driving force is weak [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production has stabilized, terminal ore consumption has weakened, and subsequent demand will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, overseas miners' shipments are still at a high level this year, and domestic ore supply is stable, resulting in high - level supply. Although the ore price has shown a relatively strong trend due to the switching of arbitrage logic and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties, the fundamentals have not improved [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and the upward driving force is weak [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is weakening, and subsequent demand will continue to be weak. Domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, overseas miners' shipments, though slightly decreased, are still at a high level this year, and domestic ore supply is stable. The ore price has shown a relatively strong trend due to the switching of arbitrage logic and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties, but the fundamentals have not improved, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Iron Ore 2601 are all in a state of shock, with an overall view of shock and weakness. The short - term positive factors have fermented, and the ore price is in a high - level shock [1]. - The iron ore supply remains high while the demand weakens, and the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved. The ore price is still under pressure. The short - term support comes from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price is expected to continue the shock operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock and weakness, and the overall view is shock and weakness. The core logic is that short - term positive factors have fermented, leading to a high - level shock in ore prices [1]. 3.2 Calculation Rules for Rise and Fall - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day to calculate the rise - fall range. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is shock and weakness, a rise of 0 - 1% is shock and strength, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The shock - strength/weakness only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [2]. 3.3 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production has stabilized, the terminal consumption of ore has weakened, and the profitability of steel mills is poor, so the ore demand is expected to remain weak. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, but both are still at a high level within the year. Overseas supply is active, and domestic ore supply is stable. The ore supply remains high. Overall, the ore market fundamentals have not improved, and the ore price is still under pressure. The short - term support comes from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price is expected to continue the shock operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for Iron Ore 2601 are all in a state of shock, with an overall view of shock and weakness. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Demand is weakening while supply remains high, so the market fundamentals are weak and the ore price is under pressure. However, the switching of the arbitrage logic provides support, and the short - term trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively shock, shock, and shock with a weak bias. The overall view is shock and weakness, and the core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the continuous fluctuation of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Terminal consumption of ore is weakening, and steel mills' profitability is poor with unsolved industrial contradictions, so ore demand will continue to be weak. Although domestic port ore arrivals are continuously falling, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly, and subsequent arrivals are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overseas supply remains active, and domestic ore supply is stable, so ore supply remains high. The market fundamentals are weak, and the ore price is under pressure. The switching of the arbitrage logic provides support, and the short - term trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, and the ore price will maintain a volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 line [1]. - The rebound in iron ore demand is of uncertain sustainability, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term support brought by the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the steel performance should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the ore price will fluctuate [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Terminal consumption has rebounded, but steel mills' profitability is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so the incremental space is limited. Domestic port arrivals of ore have continued to decline, while overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals will also rebound. Overseas supply is active, and domestic supply is stable, so the ore supply remains high [2]. - The rebound in iron ore demand is of uncertain sustainability, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term support brought by the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the steel performance should be monitored [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillating trend with weak upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products. The current situation of the iron ore market is weak, and there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, with high supply and limited improvement in demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be oscillating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Although the terminal consumption of ore has increased, the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, with limited room for improvement. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has been continuously decreasing, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and reached a high for the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. The supply of foreign ore remains active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. - Thanks to the switch of the arbitrage logic and the improvement of ore demand, the ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, due to the high supply, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, and the upward driving force is not strong [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term, oscillate in the medium - term, and oscillate weakly during the day. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, as the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. Although the demand has improved, the supply remains high, and the market fundamentals have not improved. The short - term positive factor is the change in the variety arbitrage logic. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of steel [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, with the core logic being that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The resumption of production by steel mills has increased the terminal consumption of ore, but due to poor profitability of steel mills and unsolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, the demand improvement space is limited and the positive effect is weak. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and returned to the high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will bottom out and rebound. The supply of foreign ore is active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable with a slight increase, resulting in a high supply of ore. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has improved, but the supply remains high, so the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved and the upward driving force is not strong. The short - term positive factor is the change in the variety arbitrage logic. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The demand for iron ore has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, and the supply remains at a high level. The upward driving force is not strong. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic of black varieties. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward movement of the ore price is questionable [1] Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased slightly. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, and the room for improvement in ore demand is questionable. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at the highest levels of the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the pressure on ore supply has not receded [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental performance is weak, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Inventory has continued to increase. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, and the room for improvement in ore demand is limited, with a weak positive effect. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments from overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at a high level for the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the supply pressure of ore has not subsided. Currently, although the demand for iron ore has improved, the supply remains at a high level. The fundamental situation of the ore market is still weak, which is likely to suppress the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].