宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 短期利多发酵，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 进 取 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，矿石终端消耗走弱，且钢厂盈利状况不佳，其产业矛盾也未缓解，矿 石需求料将延续弱势。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货虽持续回落，但海外矿商发运则是大幅增加，按 船期推算后续到货将触底回升，海外供应依然积极，叠加内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位。总之， 铁矿石需求走弱，而供应维持高位，矿市基本面表现偏弱，矿价继续承压，相对利好的是套利逻辑切 换带来支撑，短期走势延续震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 供需格局未改善，矿价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，矿石终端消耗有所回升，但钢厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市产业矛盾未解， 增量空间有限。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货持续回落，而海外矿商发运则是大幅增加，按船期推算 后续到货也将回升，海外供应积极，叠加内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应居高不下。目前来看， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillating trend with weak upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products. The current situation of the iron ore market is weak, and there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, with high supply and limited improvement in demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be oscillating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Although the terminal consumption of ore has increased, the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, with limited room for improvement. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has been continuously decreasing, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and reached a high for the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. The supply of foreign ore remains active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. - Thanks to the switch of the arbitrage logic and the improvement of ore demand, the ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, due to the high supply, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, and the upward driving force is not strong [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线压力 | 供需格局未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂复产带来矿石终端消耗回升，但钢厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市产业 矛盾未解，需求改善空间有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货延续回落，但海外矿商 发运则是大幅增加并重回年内高位，按船期推算后续到货将触底回升，外矿供应积极，相应 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The demand for iron ore has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, and the supply remains at a high level. The upward driving force is not strong. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic of black varieties. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward movement of the ore price is questionable [1] Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased slightly. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, and the room for improvement in ore demand is questionable. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at the highest levels of the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the pressure on ore supply has not receded [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental performance is weak, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Inventory has continued to increase. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, and the room for improvement in ore demand is limited, with a weak positive effect. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments from overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at a high level for the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the supply pressure of ore has not subsided. Currently, although the demand for iron ore has improved, the supply remains at a high level. The fundamental situation of the ore market is still weak, which is likely to suppress the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market's fundamentals have not improved, and the ore price is under pressure. The short - term view of iron ore 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and weakening. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market are not alleviated. The weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which will still suppress the ore price. Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports and the shipments of overseas miners have decreased month - on - month, they are still at relatively high levels within the year, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The ore supply remains high. Arbitrage funds leaving the market drive the ore price to rise from a low level, but the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high, so the ore price is still prone to decline under pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2601, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and weakening. The suggestion is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore is deteriorating. Terminal ore consumption is decreasing due to production restrictions, and the steel market's industrial contradictions persist. The weak demand will continue to limit the ore price. Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports and overseas shipments have decreased, they are still at relatively high levels. Domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the supply remains high. The departure of arbitrage funds has led to a low - level rebound in the ore price, but with weakening demand and high supply, the ore price is likely to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the ore price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and pressured operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [1][2]. 3) Summary According to the Directory Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern, which puts pressure on the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The weak demand pattern in the steel market remains unchanged, suppressing the ore price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments of overseas miners have also decreased, but both are still at high levels. Domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the supply pressure remains. - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the ore price has stabilized in a volatile manner. However, the ore demand is weakening, the supply pressure is not relieved, and the fundamentals are still weak. The ore price is expected to continue the pressured and weak operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are poor, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2601 are oscillating weakly, and the medium - term trend is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1]. - The negative feedback logic is fermenting, with continuous weakening of ore demand and unabated supply pressure. The ore price is mainly driven by the real - world logic and continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and the ore price runs weakly [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production has weakened, the terminal consumption of ore has continued to decline, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which restrains the ore price. - Domestic port ore arrivals have increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments remain high, external ore supply is active, and domestic ore production is stabilizing, so the supply pressure remains. - The negative feedback logic is fermenting, ore demand continues to weaken, supply pressure remains, the inventory of the ore market is accumulating rapidly, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].