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铁矿需求与供应
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需求小幅回升,铁矿震荡走势
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Demand side: Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, increasing the willingness to start steel production. The molten iron output has slightly increased, indicating strong resilience in iron ore demand. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, a 0.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average molten iron output was 242.18 tons, a 0.57 - ton increase from the previous week and a 2.24 - ton increase year - on - year [1][4][5]. - Supply side: Last week, both overseas shipments and arrivals of iron ore decreased week - on - week, but the absolute volume was at the highest level in the same period of the past three years. The total global iron ore shipments were 3352.7 tons, a decrease of 157.7 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2842.1 tons, a decrease of 77.3 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14433.56 tons, a decrease of 69.58 tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 12.21 tons to 327.46 tons [1][5]. - Overall: With the increase in steel mill procurement and a stable spot market, the iron ore is expected to show a volatile trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2992 | 23 | 0.77 | 7142023 | 3003707 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3116 | 34 | 1.10 | 2406634 | 1488632 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 703.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 2099456 | 678221 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 795.0 | 20.5 | 2.65 | 4896063 | 685871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1384.5 | 35.0 | 2.59 | 142071 | 54570 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, with a slight increase in demand, an increase in steel mill inventory, and stable spot transactions. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 710 Yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 Yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of Super Special powder was 604 Yuan/ton, also a decrease of 9 Yuan/ton from the previous week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 106 Yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 3623.4 billion Yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. Residential investment was 2773.1 billion Yuan, a decrease of 10.0%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.2502 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%. The housing completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [9]. - In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. Pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. Steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [9]. - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [9]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and other aspects of steel and iron ore products, such as the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel production, and port inventory [8][10][12].