谈到铂金价格上涨的原因，世界铂金投资协会（WPIC）中国市场研究负责人张文斌指出，这背后是供 应受限、全球首饰需求强劲、投资兴趣浓厚、连续三年供应短缺状态、地上存量快速消耗及市场紧张持 续等六大核心逻辑支撑。 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 连日来，铂金延续涨势。截至北京时间9月24日14:30，现货铂金XPT最高触及1489.22美元/盎司。据 《中国经营报》记者测算，截至目前，今年铂金价格上涨超60%。 展望后市，广发期货高级黄金投资分析师叶倩宁认为，受美联储降息影响，四季度金融商品市场可能再 次迎来宏观冲击，贵金属整体将维持高位震荡，波动率价格中枢再次上升。铂金的市场紧缺程度最为持 久，供应压力持续存在，给后期的铂金价格提供了更加丰富的想象空间。 供应短缺、投资需求大增 ETF资金回流推动价格上涨 复盘2000—2025年期间，铂金经历四阶段结构性演变。 兴业研究方面指出，第一阶段，2000—2008年结构性牛市。价格从450美元/盎司涨至2273美元/盎司 （涨幅4倍），主要基于柴油车渗透率提升（欧盟占比从32.8%升至53.6%）和南非供给受限（2008年产 量骤降24吨至146吨）驱动。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the global precious metals market has strengthened, with gold, silver, and platinum - group metals rising significantly. Platinum is expected to continue its strong upward trend driven by multiple factors such as tight supply - demand balance, weakening US dollar, inflow of speculative funds, and macro - policy uncertainties [4][6][73]. - The launch of Chinese platinum futures will provide more efficient risk - management tools for industrial chain enterprises, create more asset - allocation options for investors, and enhance China's pricing power in the global platinum market [6][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Precious Metals Sector Market Review - The global precious metals market has strengthened under the impetus of multiple factors. Gold, as a core safe - haven asset, reached a record high of $3,518.5 per ounce on September 1, with a cumulative increase of over 35% based on the annual peak. The main driving factors include geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of Fed rate cuts [4][9]. - Silver and platinum showed stronger growth, with platinum rising 66%, palladium 51%, and silver 42% based on the annual peak. The precious metals market presented a pattern of "gold leading the rise, platinum, palladium, and silver following, and sector rotation" [4][10]. 3.2 2025 Platinum Fundamental Market Analysis 3.2.1 2025 Platinum Supply Shows a Tightening Trend - **Primary Platinum Mine Supply**: The global platinum mine supply is highly concentrated, with 77% of the reserves in South Africa in 2024. Supply is vulnerable to disruptions. In 2025, global platinum mine supply is expected to decline by 6% to 543,000 ounces due to various factors such as South Africa's power shortages and North America's production cuts [14][24]. - **Recycled Platinum Supply**: In 2024, global recycled platinum increased slightly but remained at a historical low. In 2025, it is expected to grow by 3% to 157,000 ounces, but the increase is insufficient to offset the decline in primary supply [28][29]. - **China's Platinum Dilemma**: China has a high dependence on imports for platinum supply. In 2024, imports accounted for 85.7% of the total supply, mainly from South Africa. Supply faces external risks such as geopolitical changes and policy adjustments [35][36]. 3.2.2 Global Platinum Demand: Overall Decline in Total Demand, Expected to Drop 4% in 2025 - **Automotive Industry Demand**: The automotive industry is the largest demand area for platinum. In 2025, global automotive catalyst demand for platinum is expected to decrease by 2% to 305,200 ounces. The growth in some markets cannot offset the decline caused by the electrification of vehicles and the delay of emission standards [47]. - **Other Industrial Demand**: In 2025, global industrial platinum demand is expected to drop to 211,000 ounces, the lowest in six years, mainly due to the weakening of the glass and chemical industries [51]. - **Platinum Jewelry Demand**: In 2025, global jewelry platinum demand is expected to increase by 5% to 211,400 ounces, reaching a seven - year high. China's market shows significant growth [54]. - **Platinum Investment Demand**: In 2025, global physical platinum bar and coin investment demand is expected to increase by 30% to 25,200 ounces, with China as the core driving force [55]. 3.3 2025 Platinum Price Driving Factor Deduction - **Commodity Attribute**: The platinum market has been in a supply shortage for three consecutive years. In 2025, the shortage is expected to be 966,000 ounces, providing a solid foundation for price increases [59]. - **Financial Attribute**: The US dollar's weakness is a key factor driving up platinum prices. The US dollar has been under pressure this year, and the negative correlation between the US dollar index and platinum prices is expected to support platinum prices [62]. - **Investment Attribute**: Platinum has strong speculative attributes. After gold reached a high valuation, speculative funds flowed into platinum, leading to significant price increases [66]. - **Other Major Impacts**: Uncertainty in US tariff policies can cause significant fluctuations in the precious metals market. If the policy extends to platinum bars, it may have a similar or stronger impact on platinum prices [70][72].