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全球铂金市场将维持结构性短缺状态
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-21 00:30
Core Insights - The strategic value of platinum is increasingly recognized in key industrial sectors, particularly amid global energy transitions and technological revolutions [1] - Platinum is now included in the strategic reserve management systems of major economies such as the US, Japan, EU, and Russia [1] Supply Side Analysis - Global platinum supply is projected to increase by 3% in 2024, reaching 7.293 million ounces, which is below expectations [7] - Mine supply is expected to be 5.807 million ounces, also a 3% increase, primarily due to the release of inventory by mining companies [7] - Recycled supply is forecasted to decline by 1% to 1.486 million ounces, marking the lowest level since 2013 [7] - The global platinum supply chain is characterized by a pyramid structure, with a few major producers dominating the market [9] - South Africa holds approximately 90% of the world's platinum reserves, with significant contributions from Russia, Canada, and the US [10][11] - The top five platinum producers account for 83% of total supply, indicating a highly concentrated market [12] Demand Side Analysis - Total global platinum demand is expected to reach 8.288 million ounces in 2024, a 5% increase [16] - Automotive demand is projected to decline by 2% to 3.13 million ounces due to reduced production of catalyst-equipped vehicles [16][19] - Jewelry demand is anticipated to grow by 8% to 1.933 million ounces, driven by strong demand in Europe, North America, and India [16] - Industrial demand is expected to decrease by 1%, with significant declines in the chemical sector [16] - Investment demand is projected to surge by 77% to 702,000 ounces, fueled by increased interest in platinum bars and coins [16] Market Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortfall of 995,000 ounces in 2024, primarily driven by a significant increase in investment demand [21] - Supply is forecasted to contract by 4% in 2025, with total supply dropping to 7.002 million ounces due to reduced mining output [21] - Demand is also expected to decrease by 5% in 2025, influenced by lower ETF inflows and softening demand for platinum bars and coins [21]