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现货流通增加,铅价承压:有色金属周报-铅-20251118
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 07:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the delivery of the SHFE Lead 2511 contract ended, some supplies returned to the spot market. With general downstream consumption and production based on sales, short - term lead prices are expected to face downward pressure. Considering the continuous shortage of raw materials, it may limit the subsequent start - up of smelters. Attention should be paid to the support level around 17,000 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter start - up [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.01% month - on - month to 17,425 yuan/ton; SHFE lead main contract closing price rose by 0.43% to 17,495 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.03% to 2,066 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Basis There is no specific analysis or conclusion about the basis in the content other than presenting some basis - related data charts. 3.3 Raw Material Situation - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and with precious metal prices fluctuating at high levels, TC quotes are stable but tend to weaken. Smelter profits are acceptable, and as of November 7, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 163.6 yuan/ton [32]. - As of November 14, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The automotive battery has entered the peak scrapping season, and most large smelters reported sufficient battery arrivals, and the price did not rise with the lead price [46]. 3.4 Primary Lead - The primary lead start - up rate remained flat month - on - month at 67.57%. The production of major deliverable primary lead brands in China had small fluctuations, with some smelters reducing production due to raw material shortages [33]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production in the week of November 7 was 50,050 tons, 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, and an expected 50,150 tons this week. Some enterprises in Anhui were under maintenance, while those in Inner Mongolia resumed normal production [38]. 3.5 Recycled Lead - As of November 14, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 361 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 146 yuan/ton. With lead prices consolidating at high levels and scrap battery prices remaining stable, the profits of recycled lead smelters improved significantly [52]. - As of November 13, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased to 152,750 tons, and the finished product inventory decreased to 4,400 tons. Due to limited primary lead supplies and firm quotes, some downstream buyers turned to recycled lead, resulting in a reduction in recycled lead finished product inventory [55]. - The recycled lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 48.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 59,400 tons, showing a decline. The start - up in Henan decreased significantly due to environmental protection control, while that in Anhui increased as smelters resumed production. Some smelters said they might stop production for maintenance around late November if the raw material inventory continued to decline [58]. 3.6 Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 1.34 percentage points to 70.56%. The resumption of production of enterprises that previously reduced production due to equipment maintenance or high lead prices drove the continuous increase in start - up. However, in the terminal market, the peak season of the automotive battery market was not prosperous, and dealers purchased according to demand. Some medium - and large - sized enterprises had weak new orders and actively reduced production to destock, so the overall battery start - up had not returned to the level in October [66]. 3.7 Import and Export - As of November 7, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the import profit was - 406.85 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77]. 3.8 Inventory - As of November 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 38,600 tons, showing an increase; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 3,700 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. Due to delivery and position transfer, the factory inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the social inventory increased. With smelters resuming production and the end of the 2511 contract delivery, the decline in factory inventory is expected to slow down [88]. - As of November 14, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 42,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of November 13, the LME inventory was 222,500 tons, also showing an increase [91]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [92].