张世骄（联系人） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 有色氛围积极， 下游消费转强 铅月报 从业资格号：F03120988 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 2025/10/10 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：9月1日至10月10日期间，沪铅指数震荡上行，收涨1.57%至17140元/吨，总持仓减少0.46万手。伦铅收涨1.63%至 2026.5美元/吨。截至报告期末，SMM1#铅锭均价16800元/吨，再生精铅均价16775元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 10000元/吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.01万吨，内盘原生基差-120元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-15元/吨。LME铅锭库存录 得23.61万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得4.96万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-37.3美元/吨，3-15价差-74.2美元/吨。剔汇后盘面沪伦 比价录得1.193，铅锭进口盈亏为-358.36元/吨。据钢 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 下游刚需采购为主 成交仍显偏淡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-10-09，LME铅现货升水为-37.30美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16800元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-10.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨 至16875元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至16875元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-09，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于17115元/吨，较前一交易日变化175元/吨，全天交易 日成交40199手，较前一交易日变化-5406手，全天交易日持仓41077手，手较前一交易日变化-1556手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17155元/吨，最低点达到16905元/吨。 ...

海晏河清，时雨逢春 ——4Q25铅观点与策略 东证衍生品研究院 有色金属分析师 魏林峻 从业资格号： F03111542 投资咨询号：Z0021721 铅四季度观点与策略 3. 基本面或强于三季度——锚定下游大厂战略与拿货节奏 • 沪铅评级：震荡 • 区间走势：【16500，17800】，窄幅震荡+阶段性中小级别行情。 • 核心逻辑：1. 供应矛盾放大——原生再生的原料紧缺问题均将更深演绎 2. 需求谨慎转好——10月旺季改善 vs. 透支消费成品累库+出口承压 • 4Q观点：铅精矿和废电瓶紧缺加剧，内需在政策提振消费背景下有阶段性转好预期， 出口需求或延续承压。沪铅震荡中枢或有上移，有可能会随着消费转好，而出现中小 级别上涨行情，波动率或较三季度有所放大，操作上低多安全边际更高，需重点关注 大厂生产战略。 • 交易思路：单边跟随需求阶段性低多，内外比价推荐以区间操作为主。 • 策略推介：单边：短期建议关注逢低布局近月多单机会，中线锚定需求变化。 套利：月差有阶段性转B可能，内外比价上方阈值或在粗铅进口窗口。 套保：锚定需求节奏，长线买入套保。 • 风险提示：下游生产计划变动，宏观风险，需求超预期疲软。 铅精 ...

铅周报 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 9 月 29 日 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 供应逐步恢复 铅价压力增大 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 铅周报 一、交易数据 | | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 9 月 19 | 日 | 9 月 26 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 铅 | 17150 | | 17110 | -40 | 元/吨 | | LME 铅 | 2003 | | 2001.5 | -1.5 | 美元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.56 | | 8.5 ...

新华财经北京9月24日电 本周迄今国内铅市整体表现承压。期货盘面上，本周前两个交易日，沪铅主力 合约上行乏力，连续两日震荡收跌，24日沪铅期价更是退守17000元／吨关口。现货市场上，卓创资讯 监测显示，截至9月23日，现货1#铅均价16950元／吨，较前一日跌25元／吨，跌幅0.15%，同比上涨 750元／吨，涨幅4.63%。 据卓创资讯分析师袁旗介绍，近期铅价震荡回落，价格重心小幅下移的主要原因在于：国庆节前下游企 业的备库多集中于上周，进入本周后，大型电池企业采购逐渐结束，但中小厂多持谨慎观望态度，接货 意愿不高。在此背景下，随着市场交投氛围转淡，看跌情绪有所升温，进一步抑制下游采购积极性。 编辑：吴郑思 不过，袁旗进一步称，虽然需求端的转弱对铅价形成拖累，但是近期铅锭社会库存出现回落，对铅价形 成一定支撑。综合来看，预计短期铅价或维持震荡偏弱走势。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The primary lead ore's apparent inventory accumulation rate is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has declined again. Raw material shortages are suppressing primary smelting operations. On the secondary lead side, the price of scrap materials has dropped, the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and operations have slightly improved. The downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years. After the pressure on battery inventory has decreased, downstream purchases have slightly increased. Both the domestic lead ingot factory inventory and social inventory have declined. After a long period of horizontal movement, the monthly spread of Shanghai lead has fluctuated upwards. It is expected that Shanghai lead will operate strongly in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.08% at 17,172 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 96,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 1 to $2,011/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 164,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. On the secondary side, the scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. In July 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,003,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In August 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 156,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 13.9% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to August, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,097,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.8%. In July 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,816,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and TC**: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation and Output**: The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. In August 2025, China's primary lead production was 324,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.9% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,533,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.8% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Material and Weekly Production**: The scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In August 2025, China's secondary lead production was 320,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 0.7%. From January to August, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,571,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.2% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 4,516,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation and Apparent Demand**: The operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06%. In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 4,478,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In July 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 20.8925 million, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In August 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway has driven the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the relatively high operation rate of starting batteries. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 38,100 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead turned slightly net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bullish trend [80].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-16 下游需求仍偏弱 但宏观因素使铅价相对抗跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-15，LME铅现货升水为-41.16美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16950 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化175元 /吨至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16950元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化200元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-15，沪铅主力合约开于17050元/吨，收于17160元/吨，较前一交易日变化120元/吨，全天交易 日成交58666手，较前一交易日变化-4763手，全天交易日持仓47056手，手较前一交易日变化-5132手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17205元/吨，最低点达到 ...

有色金属周报-铅 供给阶段性收紧，铅价突破万七关口 2025年9月15日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。远期到港矿依旧偏紧，考虑贵 | | | | | 金属价格走强，多家炼厂对铅矿含银及其他贵稀金属含量 | | | | | 提出要求，当前低银铅矿加工费整体维持在400-600元/金 | | | | | 属吨，但多金属富含的铅矿加工费已降至零附近。此外， | | | | | 部分炼厂逐渐开启冬储备库，矿端偏紧格局难有改善。 | 原生铅及再生铅炼厂开工均有所回 | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：随着京津冀地区回收业务逐渐恢复，废电 | 落，尤其是再生铅企业开工，供给 | | | | 瓶报废量得到回补，但再生铅炼厂开工不断下滑，废电瓶 | 阶段性收紧，铅价低位反弹至 | | | | 持续下滑，成本端支撑逻辑有所扭转。 | 17,000元/吨以上，下游畏涨采买有 | 高位整理， | | ...

9月10日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌不一。其中，沪铅期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报 16820.00元/吨，小幅下跌0.56%。 宏观面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，美国就业数据大幅下修，将截至3月前12个月期间的岗位下修 91.1万。 供应方面，五矿期货指出，上游铅精矿及废铅酸蓄电池均相对紧缺，原料紧缺限制原再冶炼厂开工空 间。此外，再生铅持续亏损推动安徽等地再生铅冶炼厂减产。 需求方面，新湖期货分析称，上周铅蓄电池开工率小幅回升，主因整车配套订单好转，但电动自行车、 汽车更换需求薄弱；出口方面，中东关税制裁即将生效，出口订单下滑。 展望后市，中辉期货表示，国内原生铅生产有所恢复，再生铅企业因亏损带来减停产量有所增多，下游 蓄电池消费旺季表现一般，铅价反弹承压走势。 ...

Group 1 - The current spot lead market price ranges from 16,750 to 16,940 CNY/ton, with the average price reported at 16,890 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY from the previous day [1] - On August 26, the Shanghai Futures lead main contract closed at 16,930 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.50%, and a trading volume of 45,181 lots [2] - A major recycled lead smelting enterprise in East China is expected to suspend production in early September for equipment maintenance, potentially impacting recycled lead output by approximately 0.85 million tons [3] Group 2 - The copper crown gold source futures report indicates that the increase in maintenance at primary lead smelters and reduced production at recycled lead smelters due to tight raw materials may ease supply pressure, while social inventory continues to decline slightly [4] - Despite the slight increase in lead prices, current consumption improvements are not significant, and high inventory levels at LME may hinder sustained price increases, leading to a forecast of fluctuating prices [4]