铅周报：铅蓄消费转弱 关注再生铅冶炼成本支撑 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 供应端，本周国产铅精矿加工费至300元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费至-135美元/干吨。铅精矿市场整体平稳，进口矿偏紧并几无报价的现状持续，2026年长单方 面，多数贸易商仅能提供远期最少供货数量但仍无法确定加工费报价。国内矿贸易市场上，河南、内蒙古等地冶炼厂持续按需采购，银价高位回调后除个别矿山接受小幅回调 加工费弥补冶炼厂加工利润损失外，多数矿山和冶炼厂并未提及铅精矿加工费价格调整。江西、湖南、云南等地南方地区冶炼厂因铅精矿供应短缺出现生产开工下滑的情况并 未缓和。 ➢ 冶炼端，本周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均率67.7%，较上周环比小幅增加0.13%。河南地区原生铅冶炼厂产量 ...

铅周报 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 11 月 24 日 市场情绪谨慎 铅价下寻支撑 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续高位回落。宏观面看，美国 11 月非农数据延后公布，美联储缺失重要数据指引，12 月维持利率不变概率增大，美元回升压制风险资产。 要点 基本面看，LME 大幅交仓后库存增加至 26 万吨以上， 资金做多热强降温，内外铅价高位调整。铅矿供应延 续偏紧，低 TC 态势将维持较长时间。废旧电瓶报价稳 中偏弱，因再生铅利润回落后采买压价。冶炼端看 ...

张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023261 冶炼高开工， 铅价重回震荡区间 铅周报 从业资格号：F03120988 2025/11/22 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪铅指数收跌0.31%至17165元/吨，单边交易总持仓7.53万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦铅3S较前日同期跌17.5至 1997.5美元/吨，总持仓15.96万手。SMM1#铅锭均价17075元/吨，再生精铅均价17050元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 9975元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据钢联数据，国内社会库存小幅去库至3.64万吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得3万吨，内盘原生基差-90元/吨，连续合约-连 一合约价差-5元/吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得26.47万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得8.57万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-28.91美元/吨， 3-15价差-85.3美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.21，铅 ...

库存方面，11月17日，LME铅库存录得26.61万吨，较上一日增加4.37万吨，增加幅度为19.62%；最近 一周，LME铅库存累计增加6.39万吨，增加幅度为31.61%；最近一个月，LME铅库存累计增加1.57万 吨，增加幅度为6.28%。 展望后市，国投安信期货表示，铅价高位，下游畏高，炼厂利润较好，产出预增。期现价差高位，铅交 仓累库压力大。LME铅库存激增，内外盘基本面同步转弱，沪铅多头加速离场，短期有望继续下探成 本支撑，下方暂看1.71万元/吨60日均线支撑。 11月18日，国内期市有色金属板块"万绿丛中一点红"。其中，沪铅期货盘中低位震荡运行，主力合约报 收于17230.00元/吨，跌幅1.12%。 供给上，南华期货（603093）指出，铅精矿原料短缺导致多数电解铅企业虽复产，但产量低于市场预 期。目前铅进口窗口打开，后续粗铅和铅精矿进口量扩大，冶炼端原料问题逐渐解决，加上再生铅复 产，整体缓慢恢复平衡。 需求端，一德期货分析称，随着部分中大型企业在10月底到11月初的设备检修或因铅价高企主动减停产 的因素解除，本周铅蓄电池企业周度开工率延续增势，但汽车蓄电池市场终端消费不旺，经销商仅按需 ...

研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。近期部分炼厂已锁定2026年进 | | | | | 口矿长单协议，加工费已跌至（-160）-（-200）美元/干 | | | | | 吨，炼厂普遍谨慎观望；国内市场来看，河南、内蒙古等 | | | | | 地区炼厂持续按需采购，个别炼厂提前付款并锁定2-3个 | | | | | 月后的铅精矿货源，TC报价整体偏弱。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：铅蓄电池报废端平稳，废电瓶持货商出货 | 随着沪铅2511合约交割结束，部分 | | | | | 货源重回现货市场，预计市场流通 | | | | 情绪好转，但随着炼厂开工提升，废电瓶价格持续坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端：原生铅开工增减并存，产量小幅波动，部分炼厂 | 货源有所增加，下游因消费一般， | | | | 因原料不足开工有所下滑；再生铅因环保因素开工有所回 | 普遍以销定产为主，预 ...

从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 伦铅偏强支撑 沪铅调整有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价冲高回落。宏观面看，美国政府结 束关门，但基于通胀的担忧，多位美联储官员发表偏 鹰言论，降息预期下调，同时国内经济数据持续疲软， 拖累市场风险偏好，铅价走势承压。 要点 基本面看，原料供应紧缺态势难改，内外铅精矿加工 费弱稳。河南地区维持环保管控，影响废旧电瓶拆解， 同时受铅价上涨影响，部分持货商捂货不出，带动废 旧电瓶报价小幅上涨，成本支撑 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support high lead prices in the short term due to various factors including production issues and regulatory changes in electric vehicle battery standards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of November 13, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported lead registered warehouse receipts at 128,650 tons, with canceled receipts at 95,325 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. Total lead inventory stands at 223,975 tons, down by 1,250 tons [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead inventory at 25,824 tons, an increase of 1,138 tons from the previous trading day. Regional breakdown shows: Shanghai at 4,784 tons (down 197 tons), Guangdong at 4,724 tons (up 1,011 tons), Jiangsu at 4,782 tons (unchanged), Zhejiang at 1,272 tons (up 99 tons), and Tianjin at 10,262 tons (up 225 tons) [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - October's electrolytic lead production fell short of expectations, leading to a tightening supply that has pushed lead prices higher. Environmental restrictions in Hebei have caused a regional supply tightness to spread nationwide [2]. - A shortage of lead concentrate has resulted in many electrolytic lead producers operating below market expectations despite resuming production. The opening of import windows for lead and lead concentrate is expected to increase import volumes, gradually resolving raw material issues at the smelting end [2]. - The demand for lead is expected to remain stable, with short-term lead prices anticipated to maintain high levels amid these supply constraints [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Adjustments - The lead market has seen a shift from a five-day price increase to a downward adjustment, with social inventories continuing to rise. The resumption of production at refineries and the replenishment of crude lead are alleviating supply-demand mismatches, leading to a weakening of fundamental support for prices [3]. - Short-term adjustments in lead prices are expected as the market responds to these changes in inventory and production dynamics [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of lead products such as SMM1 lead ingots, Shanghai lead main - contract, and London lead have shown an upward trend. The lead market has both supply and demand increasing, but high lead prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. This week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract, and some hidden inventories will become visible. There is a risk of the lead price rising and then falling. Attention should be continuously paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on refinery operations in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.15% to 17,250 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main - contract closing price increased by 0.17% to 17,420 yuan/ton, and London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 0.99% to 2,045 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text, only historical basis data charts are presented [11]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The tight supply pattern of lead concentrate has not been alleviated, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees (TC) declining. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee dropped to 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee dropped to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The refinery profit is acceptable, with a profit of 162.5 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) as of October 31 [22][27]. - **Raw Material - Scrap Batteries**: As of November 7, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. With the continuous increase in secondary lead production, it is expected that the price of scrap batteries will rise in the future [42]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 67.57%. The weekly production of some major smelting enterprises remained stable, while some enterprises had production changes due to maintenance or production resumption. The total weekly production is expected to increase from 49,800 tons to 50,450 tons [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: The secondary lead operating rate increased by 7.3 percentage points to 50.7%. The weekly production reached 5.97 tons last week. The supply of scrap batteries is relatively stable, and most refineries have sufficient raw materials, with the operating rate returning to a high level in the past six months [54]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Battery Enterprises**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 69.22%. Some previously maintained enterprises resumed production last week, and the lead ingot trading improved. However, due to the high lead price increasing battery costs and the general terminal consumption, dealers' inventory building is limited, and battery enterprises mainly produce according to sales [62]. 3.4 Import and Export Analysis - As of October 31, the refined lead export loss was about 3,000 yuan/ton. As of November 10, the import profit was - 418.79 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [71]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of November 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.27 tons, and the inventory of primary lead's main delivery brand factories was 8,900 tons, showing an increase. High lead prices inhibited downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory accumulated due to delivery and position transfer [81]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 7, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.86 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 20.22 tons, showing a decrease [84]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the data of primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from July 2024 to August 2025 [85].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Supply Gradually Recovering, Lead Prices May Oscillate Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the gradual increase in the operation of domestic secondary lead smelters, the supply of domestic lead ingots may improve. On the consumption side, terminal demand is gradually weakening, and domestic lead consumption may decline. Attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory situation, and lead prices may decline as social inventory increases [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply - Side**: Recently, the supply - demand of domestic lead concentrates remains in a tight balance. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates has been reduced by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee of SMM imported lead concentrates has been reduced by 10 US dollars to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. Most secondary lead smelters in China have sufficient raw material inventories, and the purchase quotes for lead - containing waste materials are stable. Individual secondary lead smelters have slightly increased the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the operation of secondary lead smelting enterprises increases, the price of lead - containing waste materials may gradually rise [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters is 67.57%, an increase of 0.4% from last week. A small - scale smelter in Henan has resumed production after maintenance and slightly increased production; a small - and medium - scale smelter in Hunan has slightly fluctuated in output due to raw material supply, and other smelters in this region maintain partial operation and have not fully resumed production; smelters in Yunnan maintain normal production this week; a smelter in North China has reduced production as scheduled for maintenance, and another smelter's maintenance plan is still scheduled for late November. A smelter in Inner Mongolia that had resumed production after maintenance but was not at full capacity has returned to normal production and still has a slight increase this week. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead is 50.65%, an increase of 7.24% from last week. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Anhui is over 50%. The large - scale smelting enterprises under maintenance in this region have all resumed production and their output is slowly increasing. It is expected that the operating rate in this region will still rise next week. The production of enterprises in Henan and Jiangsu is relatively stable, and the regional operating rate has not changed much. Since the supply of lead ingots in the northern market is still not abundant, the sales orders of smelters in Inner Mongolia are good [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises is 69.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. Recently, affected by the rising lead prices, the production cost of lead - acid batteries has increased. To avoid accumulating high - price inventories, some medium - and large - scale enterprises plan to reduce production, stop production, or conduct equipment maintenance from the end of October to early November. The maintenance of lead - acid battery enterprises has been completed one after another this week, and a small number of enterprises have resumed normal production. In November, the demand in the automotive battery market is weak, and some enterprises have lowered their production plans for November. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries has only increased slightly this week [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions has reached 31,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to October 30 and an increase of 1,600 tons compared to November 1 [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 1.2 - 1.6 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [5][8][12][16] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - These sections list data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate supply, but no specific analysis content is provided [21][24] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - These sections list data on the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific analysis content is provided [28] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific analysis content is provided [36] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes of domestic refined lead, but no specific analysis content is provided [43] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue, but no specific analysis content is provided [44] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [47] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits - Lists data on the costs, comprehensive profits and losses, and production profits of secondary lead enterprises of different scales, but no specific analysis content is provided [50][54] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate, production, and output of secondary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [59] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net refined lead exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [62] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer inventories, export and import volumes, and enterprise inventories, but no specific analysis content is provided [69] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, lead alloy imports and exports, lead plate imports and exports, and other lead plate imports and exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [72] 4.3 Automobiles - Lists data on Chinese automobile production, exports, and production structure, but no specific analysis content is provided [75] 4.4 Motorcycles, Power, and Communications - Lists data on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power projects, but no specific analysis content is provided [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. The domestic lead ingot social and factory inventories decreased to a low level, and there was a large - scale cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts overseas. The lead price increased with rising positions. With the slowdown of destocking of the total domestic lead ingot inventory but still at a low absolute level, and the continued shortage of deliverable products, and the relatively concentrated long positions of SHFE lead, it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. As of November 6, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,438 yuan/ton, with a total long - only trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME lead 3S rose 0.5 to 2,022 dollars/ton, with a total position of 150,000 lots. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 17,225 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased to 32,100 tons, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,900 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 208,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 106,700 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.211 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 31.09 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, and the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons. The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.90% [11]. - **Outlook**: The visible lead ore inventory continued to decline, the primary smelter start - up rate remained high, and the primary lead factory inventory increased. The recycled lead ingot weekly output increased. The downstream battery enterprise start - up rate declined, and the domestic lead ingot total inventory destocking slowed down but was still at a low level, with deliverable products remaining in short supply. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, and in October, the domestic lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons. The total supply of lead concentrate in September was 306,000 metal tons. In June 2025, the global lead ore output was 395,900 tons [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The lead concentrate import TC was - 125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Data**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%, and in October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons [11][26]. 3.3 Recycled Supply - **Raw Material and Production**: The lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and in October 2025, the domestic recycled lead output was 346,300 tons [31][33][35]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot total supply was 657,200 tons [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.9%. In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot apparent demand was 718,900 tons [40]. - **Battery Export**: In September 2025, the estimated lead - containing net export of batteries was 60,700 tons [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, the new installation demand improved; in the automobile sector, the demand for lead was expected to grow steadily; in the base station sector, the demand for lead - acid batteries increased steadily [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 61,800 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to September was a shortage of 6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of 8,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to July was a shortage of 53,900 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,600 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 224,200 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.213 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 24.99 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead became net long, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].