1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic conditions, with a supply - demand game. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline less. The expanding losses of secondary lead and the reduction of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventories and downstream low - price restocking, and the opening of the import window brings an incremental expectation. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated, with strong data center orders but the civilian battery market entering the off - season. Next week, lead prices may decline first and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain low - price rigid demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory reduction and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously. The expected weekly operating range of lead prices is between 16,200 yuan/ton and 16,800 yuan/ton, and enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations based on this range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 24, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 39.61 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [1] Futures - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan/ton and closed at 16,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 49,289 lots, a decrease of 14,155 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 84,978 lots, a decrease of 4,229 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,515 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,385 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,420 yuan/ton and closed at 16,470 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 24, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 24, the LME lead inventory was 283,350 tons, a decrease of 25 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral. For options, it is recommended to sell call options. The expected weekly operating range of lead prices is between 16,200 yuan/ton and 16,800 yuan/ton, and enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations based on this range [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the losses of secondary lead enterprises and their delayed resumption of production support the lead price, downstream demand is weak, and the pressure of imported lead inflow persists [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year. Domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic monthly processing fee in March was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160--140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no month - on - month change. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150--120 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [2]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The output of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 20, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 39.57%, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%. The price of waste batteries is firm, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have expanded, with possible production cuts and delayed resumption of production. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and refined lead imports are in a continuous profitable state, with overseas lead surplus pressure flowing into the domestic market [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces last week was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. The terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is mediocre. Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. Considering the consumption off - season in April, it is expected that the domestic lead ingot social inventory will stop falling and start to rise in mid - to - late April [4]. - **Spot**: As of the week of March 20, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 165 yuan. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 39.51 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 20, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons, with the LME inventory oscillating at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 23, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decline, at a moderately high level [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply is loose, with high - level oscillation of LME lead inventory and deep spot discounts. Overseas mine supply is gradually recovering, but the release period is mainly in the second half of the year. Although the import volume of lead ore has increased significantly year - on - year, the recovery of domestic lead ore supply is still limited, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage has not improved, with processing fees remaining at a low level. Primary lead enterprises have high production enthusiasm, and the operating rate of primary lead has steadily recovered. Currently, the price of waste batteries is firm, secondary lead enterprises have large losses, and although the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the resumption of production of some enterprises has been delayed. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and the domestic import profit has expanded, with overseas lead surplus pressure shifting to the domestic market. - Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. The second quarter is the off - season for lead consumption, demand will weaken month - on - month, and inventory may rise again. - Overall, the large losses of secondary lead enterprises, their delayed resumption of production, and production cuts support the lead price. However, downstream demand is general, and under the pressure of imported inflows, the low - level oscillation of lead is difficult to change. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary lead and the domestic inventory situation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow inventory reduction. The losses in recycled lead production lead to a lower - than - expected resumption of production, which supports the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, the inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 11, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.77/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -40.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -25 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton. The price of scrap white shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of scrap black shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,605 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,968 lots, a change of -5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 61,083 lots, a change of 2,926 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,735 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,585 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,655 yuan/ton and closed at 16,655 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2]. Inventory - On March 11, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 11, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, with a change of 0 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Absolute price: The lead price is expected to run in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations according to this range [3]. - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with limited downstream demand boosting the price and high domestic inventory pressuring it. However, the firm price of waste batteries provides strong support for the lead price. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of recycled lead and the progress of recycled lead's inclusion in the delivery system [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The import volume of lead ore has increased month - on - month for two consecutive months, but the domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production of recycled refined lead in February 2026 was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. After the Spring Festival, the maintenance of primary lead enterprises ended, and the current precious metal prices are still high, so the profits of primary lead smelting enterprises are still considerable, and the production has increased month - on - month. After the Lantern Festival, the losses of recycled lead enterprises expanded, causing the originally expected centralized resumption of production in early March to be postponed to after mid - March. It is expected that the effective production of recycled lead will be concentrated in the second half of the month. If the losses continue, the resumption of production in late March may fall short of expectations, and the tight supply of recycled lead may support the lead price periodically. Currently, after the lead price has fallen, the price of waste batteries is relatively resistant to decline, and recycled lead enterprises are deeply in losses. In addition, the inclusion of recycled lead as a deliverable (implemented on March 17) will increase the deliverable supply in the futures market, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and refined lead is in a state of import profit, so the overseas lead surplus pressure will flow into the domestic market [3] 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - The weekly operating rate of battery enterprises has rebounded to 71.68%. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has entered a comprehensive recovery state. Most production enterprises have basically resumed production, and as the number of workers on the job increases, the output has gradually increased, driving the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises to rise significantly. Currently, the terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is average. The inventory of dealers is relatively high, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories is digested slowly, with relatively large inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, only maintaining long - term order pick - up or replenishing inventory as needed, and there is no concentrated stockpiling market [4] 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week of March 6, the domestic lead spot basis was slightly at a discount, and the weekend lead spot basis was at a discount of 5 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 42.91 US dollars [4] 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the weekly LME lead inventory decreased by 200 tons to 285,900 tons. The LME inventory fluctuated at a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,162 tons to 66,800 tons. As of March 10, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 73,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.12%, and it has increased for two consecutive periods, reaching an absolute high level in the past four years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The macro - situation is affected by Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and overseas inflation concerns, and the strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector. The domestic lead market is in a deep game between increasing supply and strong cost support. The lead price is restricted by high visible inventory and slow consumption recovery on the upside, and is supported by the deep losses of secondary lead on the downside, resulting in a weak and volatile pattern near the cost line [1]. - In the short - term, due to the approaching delivery week of the SHFE lead 2603 contract, the spot market is in a stalemate, and the futures market has a risk of a downward correction. In the long - term, the lead market is in a tug - of - war between the peak of traditional demand and raw material supply bottlenecks, and the lead price will be confined within a narrow range [7][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro factors: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict and overseas inflation concerns have led to an increase in energy and shipping costs, strengthening inflation and raising expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector [1]. - Industry factors: The primary lead smelters have resumed production and increased output after the holiday, but the import concentrate processing fee is extremely low at - 145 dollars/ton. The secondary lead sector faces shortages of scrap battery raw materials and deep losses, with small and medium - sized enterprises losing over 500 yuan per ton, which slows down the resumption of production. Although the downstream lead battery enterprises' weekly operating rate has risen to 71.68%, the post - holiday提货 is mainly through long - term contracts, and the spot trading is weak. The SMM five - region social inventory has slightly increased to 67,200 tons, and the de - stocking expectation has been repeatedly disappointed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see. The lead price is restricted by delivery inventory accumulation on the upside and supported by secondary lead losses on the downside, resulting in a poor risk - reward ratio [12]. - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options (such as selling out - of - the - money call and put options) to short volatility and earn time value [12]. - Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period reverse arbitrage (buy far and sell near). The near - month delivery pressure is prominent, while the far - month has expectations of supply tightening and peak seasons [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Lead price volatility: The latest price is 16,775 yuan/ton, the predicted range is 16,300 - 17,700 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 8.51%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 16.6% [13]. - Lead risk management recommendations: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short the SHFE lead main futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton; for raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and worried about price increase, long the SHFE lead main futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 16,000 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish drivers: The latest import lead concentrate processing fee is - 145 dollars/ton (previous value: - 150 dollars/ton), and it is expected to be difficult to rebound; small and medium - sized secondary lead enterprises have a comprehensive profit and loss of - 543 yuan/ton, indicating deep losses in the secondary lead sector; the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead batteries has risen to 71.68% (previous value: 29.26%) [14]. - Bearish drivers: The SMM five - region lead ingot social inventory has increased to 67,200 tons (previous value: 64,000 tons), and the visible inventory has accumulated; the soaring oil price has impacted the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the expectation of no interest rate cuts has increased, putting pressure on the macro - sentiment [14]. - Spot transaction information: The latest daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16,625 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.3% [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic: In early March, China's February CPI annual rate; on March 17, the revision of the SHFE lead futures contract and the implementation of a 150 - yuan/ton discount for secondary lead substitutes [15]. - International: In mid - March, the US February unadjusted CPI annual rate and the January core PCE price index annual rate [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The lead price closed at 16,775 yuan/ton this week. Currently, the profitable seats are mainly short in net positions [16]. - International market: As of 15:00 this Friday, the LME lead price was 1,948.5 dollars/ton [20]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The SHFE lead term structure shows certain price differences in different contracts; the LME lead maintains a C structure [19][37]. 3.3.3 Internal - External Price Difference Tracking - There are seasonal changes in the lead spot import profit and loss, and there are also certain relationships between the SHFE lead main contract closing price and the LME lead closing price [40]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - There are changes in the primary lead processing fee, and there is a relationship between the monthly output of SMM lead concentrate and the domestic lead concentrate processing fee [42]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - There are relationships between the lead concentrate import profit and loss and import volume, and there are seasonal changes in the import and export volume of lead - related products such as lead concentrate, refined lead, and lead batteries [44]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - There are seasonal changes in the total domestic lead ingot supply and the monthly actual consumption of lead ingots [48]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - There are changes in the monthly output of lead concentrate, global lead ore output, electrolytic lead monthly output, and secondary refined lead monthly output, and there are also seasonal characteristics [50][51]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - There are seasonal changes in the lead battery operating rate, and there are also differences in the monthly and weekly operating rates of different types and regions of lead batteries. There are also seasonal changes in the import and export volume and inventory days of lead batteries [59][60][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In February, the lead price declined and then stabilized. Although there was significant inventory accumulation of lead ingots both at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the declining smelting profit of smelting enterprises may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and is expected to gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - From February 2nd to March 4th, the Shanghai lead weighted index fell 0.71% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the total position of Shanghai lead increased slightly by 0.66 million lots to 11.15 million lots. The LME lead 3M contract fell 2.71% to 1,941 US dollars/ton, and the position of the LME lead 3M contract remained basically flat at 17.17 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, the refined scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton. Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton. Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.26% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6% [15]. - In February 2026, China's lead concentrate output was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -9.7% and a month - on - month change of -29.4%. From January to February, the total lead concentrate output was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [17]. - In December 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore output was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of -1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total lead ore output was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -1.16% [19]. - The port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton, with a slight increase in lead concentrate TC [21][23]. - The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead output was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of -17.1%. From January to February, the total primary lead ingot output was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead output was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of -2.9% and a month - on - month change of -40.4%. From January to February, the total recycled lead ingot output was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -22.13%. In December, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of -1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.3%. In December 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of -0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 16.649 million, a year - on - year change of -35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was -13.06% [41]. - In January 2026, the finished product inventory of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 21.5 days to 23.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 43.6 days to 40.74 days [43]. - In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. The automobile sector's contribution to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. With the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, some large enterprises use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, but the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the development of communication technology has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons, and from January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons, and from January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton [69]. - Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [74]. - The net short position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [77].

Core Viewpoint - The lead price is experiencing a complex market environment with potential for a gradual recovery, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the resumption of operations in lead battery enterprises [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 24, 2026, the lead price in the Yangtze spot market ranged from 16,700 to 16,800 yuan per ton, with an average of 16,750 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 25 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with the LPR remaining stable at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, maintaining a robust liquidity situation that underpins the commodity market [1] - The US dollar index showed slight weakness, reported around 97.769, which alleviated pressure on the non-ferrous sector, while US stock indices experienced declines, indicating increased risk aversion [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The resumption of operations in lead battery enterprises is uneven, leading to doubts about the demand pull for lead prices; while primary and recycled lead smelters are gradually restarting, downstream battery enterprises are lagging in their recovery [2] - The recycling market for used lead-acid batteries is recovering slowly, and the current pressure on recycling enterprises may hinder stable raw material supply, impacting short-term price support [2] - The potential for growth in the energy storage sector is acknowledged, but the current application of lead batteries in this market is limited, lacking the scale needed to drive significant price increases in the short term [2] Group 3: Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for lead prices is expected to show "oscillating recovery with limited amplitude," likely maintaining a range between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan per ton, supported by cost factors and expectations of demand recovery [3] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on the progress of operations and inventory reduction data before increasing positions, while keeping an eye on the recovery of the battery recycling industry and the timing of energy storage demand [3] - Despite the current uncertainties, the medium to long-term outlook for lead prices appears positive, driven by macroeconomic support and the release of demand from resumed operations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand in the lead market decline. Logistics stops and enterprises go on holiday, resulting in light trading. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that there will be a significant inventory build - up after the festival, with lead prices oscillating weakly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 10, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.30 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton and 10,200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On February 10, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,665 yuan/ton and closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 58,100 lots, an increase of 8,455 lots compared with the previous trading day. The positions for the whole trading day were 42,295 lots, a decrease of 8,010 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,560 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 1,660 yuan/ton and closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price rose 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Near the Spring Festival, smelters only maintained a small amount of long - term order shipments and had cleared their scattered inventories, and market quotations gradually decreased. In Henan, holders offered at a discount of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2603 contract for post - holiday delivery. In Hunan, although smelters' inventories were sold out and offered at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, some holders in the trading market sold at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In Yunnan, holders offered at a discount of 225 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Recently, the lead price rebounded slightly. As smelters gradually went on holiday near the Spring Festival, downstream consumption also declined, and overall market trading was light [2] Inventory - On February 10, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 50,000 tons, a change of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 232,750 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Strategy - A sell - hedging operation can be carried out when the price returns above 16,900 yuan/ton, but the position should not be too heavy near the Spring Festival [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lead market is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with domestic lead ingot and smelter inventories accumulating, which suppresses lead prices, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight support [1][2] - The supply side shows that the processing fees for lead concentrate are at low levels, and the price of recycled batteries remains strong, pushing up smelting costs. However, domestic lead ingot social inventories have reached a two-month high, creating pressure that offsets the benefits of supply reduction [1][2] - Demand is characterized by a decline in domestic lead-acid battery production and low procurement volumes as pre-holiday demand wanes. Although overseas demand shows slight recovery, it is insufficient to counterbalance the core weakness in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The industry chain reflects a dual weakness in supply and demand, with the core feature being the differentiation in inventories between domestic and international markets. Both upstream and downstream are contracting, leading to a suppression of lead prices domestically, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight traction [2] - Leading companies, such as Yuguang Gold Lead, are expected to see steady growth in performance by the end of 2025, with increased lead production capacity and ongoing overseas resource development and technology research [2] - The spot trading environment is characterized by a pre-holiday effect, with light trading and stable discounts. The primary lead spot prices follow narrow fluctuations in futures, and after the end of downstream demand replenishment, procurement has ceased, further suppressing trading activity [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, lead prices trended weaker with oscillations. The increasing losses in secondary lead production forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak, and the continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of both supply and demand decline. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price weakly oscillating near the cost line. It is expected that the lead price will oscillate between 16,600 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton in February [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 4, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$51.98/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,425 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,400 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,640 yuan/ton and closed at 16,590 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 50,833 lots, a change of -21,462 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 58,276 lots, a change of 3,527 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,670 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,540 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,585 yuan/ton and closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On February 4, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a change of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 4, the LME lead inventory was 232,850 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]