有色金属周报-铅 现货流通货源好转，关注原料端对炼厂开工影响 2025年11月25日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。目前进口矿几乎无报价的现状 | | | | | 持续，2026年的长单贸易商仅提供远期最少供货数量，但 | | | | | 不锁定加工费报价；国内贸易市场上，河南、内蒙古等地 | | | | | 区炼厂持续按需采购，银价上涨带来的溢价基本体现在 | | | | | TC报价内，若后续银价回调，TC报价或将小幅补涨。 | | | | | | 沪铅2511合约交割结束后，部分交 | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：铅蓄电池报废端平稳，随着铅价回落，炼 | 割货源重回现货流通市场，铅价震 | | | | 厂对废电瓶报价下调，成本端支撑有所松动。 | | | |  | 供给端：原生铅开工增减并存，产量小幅波动；再生铅方 | 荡回落，下游按需补库，考虑消费 | | | | ...

研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。近期部分炼厂已锁定2026年进 | | | | | 口矿长单协议，加工费已跌至（-160）-（-200）美元/干 | | | | | 吨，炼厂普遍谨慎观望；国内市场来看，河南、内蒙古等 | | | | | 地区炼厂持续按需采购，个别炼厂提前付款并锁定2-3个 | | | | | 月后的铅精矿货源，TC报价整体偏弱。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：铅蓄电池报废端平稳，废电瓶持货商出货 | 随着沪铅2511合约交割结束，部分 | | | | | 货源重回现货市场，预计市场流通 | | | | 情绪好转，但随着炼厂开工提升，废电瓶价格持续坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端：原生铅开工增减并存，产量小幅波动，部分炼厂 | 货源有所增加，下游因消费一般， | | | | 因原料不足开工有所下滑；再生铅因环保因素开工有所回 | 普遍以销定产为主，预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of lead products such as SMM1 lead ingots, Shanghai lead main - contract, and London lead have shown an upward trend. The lead market has both supply and demand increasing, but high lead prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. This week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract, and some hidden inventories will become visible. There is a risk of the lead price rising and then falling. Attention should be continuously paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on refinery operations in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.15% to 17,250 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main - contract closing price increased by 0.17% to 17,420 yuan/ton, and London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 0.99% to 2,045 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text, only historical basis data charts are presented [11]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The tight supply pattern of lead concentrate has not been alleviated, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees (TC) declining. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee dropped to 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee dropped to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The refinery profit is acceptable, with a profit of 162.5 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) as of October 31 [22][27]. - **Raw Material - Scrap Batteries**: As of November 7, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. With the continuous increase in secondary lead production, it is expected that the price of scrap batteries will rise in the future [42]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 67.57%. The weekly production of some major smelting enterprises remained stable, while some enterprises had production changes due to maintenance or production resumption. The total weekly production is expected to increase from 49,800 tons to 50,450 tons [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: The secondary lead operating rate increased by 7.3 percentage points to 50.7%. The weekly production reached 5.97 tons last week. The supply of scrap batteries is relatively stable, and most refineries have sufficient raw materials, with the operating rate returning to a high level in the past six months [54]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Battery Enterprises**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 69.22%. Some previously maintained enterprises resumed production last week, and the lead ingot trading improved. However, due to the high lead price increasing battery costs and the general terminal consumption, dealers' inventory building is limited, and battery enterprises mainly produce according to sales [62]. 3.4 Import and Export Analysis - As of October 31, the refined lead export loss was about 3,000 yuan/ton. As of November 10, the import profit was - 418.79 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [71]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of November 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.27 tons, and the inventory of primary lead's main delivery brand factories was 8,900 tons, showing an increase. High lead prices inhibited downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory accumulated due to delivery and position transfer [81]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 7, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.86 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 20.22 tons, showing a decrease [84]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the data of primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from July 2024 to August 2025 [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with lead futures showing significant price movements and positive market sentiment driven by various factors including inventory levels and production rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 23, lead futures opened at 17,160.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 17,760.00 CNY, marking a 3.12% increase [1] - The lead market is characterized by a strong performance, with expectations for continued upward movement in the short term [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Lead ore port inventories have increased, while lead concentrate treatment charges (TC) have stabilized, maintaining high operating rates for primary lead smelting [1] - The supply of recycled lead is tightening, with a recovery in profits for recycled lead smelting, leading to increased weekly operating rates [1][2] - Domestic and foreign lead inventories are on the rise, indicating a slowdown in demand [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers are experiencing a decline in inventory levels, with battery factory stocks dropping to 19.7 days and dealer inventories to 39.7 days, alleviating pressure on finished goods [1] - Despite the traditional peak season for battery production, demand remains cautious, with a slow recovery observed in the overall market [2] - Emerging storage demand is showing positive trends, partially offsetting weaknesses in traditional demand sectors [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report After the holiday, both supply and demand in the lead market increased. Considering that the resumption of production of secondary lead was restricted by profit, raw materials, etc., and the transportation of lead ingots coincided with the fruit and vegetable season, the market circulation of lead was limited. Therefore, the lead price was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.15% to 16,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.38% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 2.13% to 1,971.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 110 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter profit declined, and as of October 10, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 68.7 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.64% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major domestic primary lead smelters was expected to be 50,100 tons, a decrease from the previous week, mainly due to local maintenance and production fluctuations in Inner Mongolia [31][36]. 3.3 Secondary Lead - As of October 17, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the holders had limited supply and were reluctant to sell, so the waste battery price was relatively firm and was expected to rise further [44]. - As of October 17, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 120 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 336 yuan/ton. The lead price weakened, while the waste battery price was firm, resulting in a slight decline in smelter profit [50]. - As of October 16, the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters decreased to 137,200 tons, and the finished product inventory increased to 3,860 tons. The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 35.1%, and the weekly production reached 46,600 tons. However, considering the average downstream consumption and limited raw material supply, the increase in the operating rate was expected to be restricted [53][56]. 3.4 Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 13.26 percentage points to 74.97%. After the double - festival holiday, the downstream operations basically returned to normal. The demand for electric bicycle and automobile batteries in the terminal market increased steadily, and the performance of battery production enterprises was better than expected [63]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of October 10, the export of refined lead incurred a loss of about 2,800 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the import was profitable at 49.44 yuan/ton, and the import profit window opened [76]. 3.6 Inventory - As of October 16, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, an increase; the inventory of major primary lead delivery brands in warehouses was 2,980 tons, a decrease. Due to delivery and transfer, some inventory became visible, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased as expected. Considering the improvement in demand, the subsequent increase in social inventory might be limited [87]. - As of October 17, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 41,700 tons, an increase; as of October 16, the LME inventory was 250,400 tons, an increase [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai Lead is "Volatility", with a price range of [16,500, 17,800], featuring narrow - range fluctuations and occasional small - to medium - scale market movements [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the shortage of lead concentrates and waste batteries will intensify. Domestic demand is expected to improve periodically under the background of policy - boosted consumption, while export demand may continue to be under pressure. The oscillation center of Shanghai Lead may move up, and there may be small - to medium - scale upward trends as consumption improves. The volatility may increase compared to Q3, and it is safer to take long positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the production strategies of large enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Lead Price Review - In July, lead prices rose first and then fell. Shanghai Lead increased significantly due to anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and pre - trading of improved demand, but domestic demand was later disproven, and anti - cut - throat competition had limited impact on basic non - ferrous commodities. LME Lead was pressured by a stronger US dollar, and both domestic and overseas lead prices dropped back to pre - increase levels [6]. - In August, the 0 - 3 cash of the outer market remained deeply in contango. The domestic lead market had weak supply and demand. Falling lead prices and tight raw materials intensified the pressure on the operating rate of secondary smelters, and demand was even weaker. With low capital attention, both domestic and overseas lead prices fluctuated at low levels [6]. - In September, the bottom - building of lead prices ended. As the traditional peak season approached, the raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream battery factories continued to decline, and lead prices rose slightly in advance. With the approaching of the double - festival holiday, downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, and market transactions improved as lead prices rose. The fundamental support pushed the operating center of lead prices up from 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Supply Overseas - In Q3 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was lower than expected. Although project profits were sufficient, factors such as lower - than - expected output from sample mining enterprises, irreversible decline in mine grades, long - term impact of geological factors, time required for equipment renewal, and increased probability of La Nina led to the annual overseas lead concentrate increment dropping from 700,000 to 0 tons. There is no obvious expectation of improvement in Q4 [7][11]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lead concentrate output was 1.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, mainly due to the output release of new projects such as Yinzhushan and Kangjiawan. The main reasons for the decline in TC were the high operating rate of primary smelters, the reflection of the supply - demand relationship of high - grade concentrates in TC, and the weak bargaining power in spot transactions due to fewer long - term contracts signed by smelters. In Q4, Huoshaoyun may release marginal increments, and the domestic mine increment in 2025 is expected to reach +1.2 million tons. The import of Red Dog lead concentrate will share tariff costs equally between domestic and foreign parties, and the import of lead concentrates may decline seasonally in Q4. With primary smelters maintaining a relatively high operating rate, TC may continue to be under pressure [20]. 3. Primary Lead Production Overseas - From January to August, the cumulative overseas primary lead output was 864,000 tons (YoY - 1.4%). Due to tight raw materials, the reduction in overseas primary lead production increased. There was a significant reduction in Kazzinc 3rd Party under Glencore, and the incremental production from restarted and ramping - up projects was not obvious [24]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic primary lead output was 2.542 million tons (YoY + 8.2%), mainly due to the restoration of raw material supply, the widening of the price difference between refined and secondary lead, and the increase in production profits (including by - products such as small metals). The operating rate of primary lead in Q3 was generally at a high level. Overall, the domestic surplus (+193,000 tons) can still cover the overseas reduction (-13,000 tons). However, smelting profits are approaching the break - even point and declining, and with the downward pressure on TC in the future, smelting profits may be under pressure. The production of primary lead in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter [24]. 4. Secondary Lead Production - From January to August, the cumulative secondary refined lead output was 2.08 million tons (YoY - 3%), and the operating rate of secondary lead remained at a low level of 30%, which may drop below 25% in September. The production cuts of secondary lead smelters mostly follow the raw material consumption rhythm rather than profit changes. The scrap battery scrap volume in Q3 did not improve significantly. Although recyclers sold off stocks multiple times during the lead price decline, it had limited effect on replenishing smelters' raw material inventories. As lead prices rebounded, the profits of secondary lead smelters in October were restored, and the operating rate may increase [44]. - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Q4 may increase quarter - on - quarter but will still be highly volatile. The replacement demand may be stimulated by trade - in subsidies, new national standards, and consumer festivals after October, but the annual output is expected to be lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate is revised down to - 2%. After years of continuous losses, the cash flow of many secondary lead plants has been under pressure for two and a half years, and attention should be paid to the possible exit of secondary lead production capacity [44]. 5. Initial Demand - In Q3, lead demand was generally weak. In the battery field, the demand for new automotive batteries was neutral to weak, and the replacement demand was significantly lower than expected. The traditional peak seasons for electric two - wheelers and tricycles did not materialize. The export demand for batteries was also weakened by tariffs and anti - dumping measures, while the demand in the energy storage field continued to perform well [46]. - The participation of large enterprises in the futures market has decreased, and there is a phenomenon of buying on rising prices. The finished - product inventory of large enterprises has been transferred to dealers, and the finished - product inventory has undergone a round of destocking. The production orders of lead - carbon battery manufacturers in the energy storage field are abundant [48]. 6. Terminal Demand Electric Two - Wheelers - From January to August, the cumulative production of electric bicycles in Jiangsu and Tianjin increased by 101.5% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate expanded compared to the first half of the year. The cumulative production of two - wheeled and three - wheeled motorcycles increased by 10.6% and 4.4% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate narrowed compared to the first half of the year. The replacement demand in Q3 was weak. In Q4, the replacement demand is expected to strengthen periodically due to factors such as trade - in policies, upcoming Double Eleven promotions, and the implementation of new national standards [54]. Automobiles - From January to August, the domestic automobile production was 21.027 million vehicles (YoY + 12.6%), with new energy vehicles increasing by 37.1% and fuel vehicles decreasing by 2%. The export increased by 13.8% year - on - year, but the export growth rate may slow down in Q4. Considering the impact of lithium substitution for lead, the annual lead consumption growth rate in the automotive field is revised down to - 1.8% [59]. Energy Storage - Lead - carbon batteries are still irreplaceable in the data center energy storage field. As of the end of September, the production schedules of some energy storage manufacturers have reached March next year, and the demand for lead - carbon batteries continues to grow strongly. The lead consumption growth rate in this sector is revised up from 8% to 10% [59]. 7. Export Demand - From 2020 - 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of lead battery exports was 10%. From January to August, the export of starting - type batteries increased by 0.2% year - on - year, while the export of other types decreased by 11.5% year - on - year, and the decline further expanded. The main reasons are price ratio suppression, anti - dumping measures, and weak non - automotive demand (destocking) [64]. - There is no obvious driver for the recovery of overseas lead consumption, and the domestic secondary production cost support is still strong. The internal - external price ratio is difficult to repair significantly. With the influence of trade protectionism and battery manufacturers going global, exports may still be under pressure, and the annual export demand growth rate is revised down from flat to - 1% [64]. 8. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is still at a seasonal high even after destocking, and the 0 - 3 spot has been in deep contango for a long time [69]. - In Q3, the lead elements concentrated in the initial downstream and terminal consumption fields were slowly consumed, and the lead elements in the intermediate links of the industrial chain have decreased. However, the medium - to - long - term trend still depends on future demand. Before the double - festivals, downstream enterprises stocked up normally, and potential delivery risks should be警惕 under low inventory levels [69]. - The import window for lead ingots may open intermittently in Q4. Based on this expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities of the internal - external price ratio [69]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance - The revised balance sheet shows that the annual shortage level has decreased. The supply of primary lead may face a marginal tightening of imported ores in Q4, and TC has downward pressure, with a possibility of limited production cuts by smelters. The replacement demand in the secondary lead sector may improve periodically in Q4, but waste batteries will still be in short supply. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters may improve quarter - on - quarter but will remain highly volatile [71]. - The annual terminal demand growth rate is expected to turn negative, mainly due to the possible over - expected lithium substitution for lead, the pressure on both domestic sales and exports of automobiles, the dependence of electric vehicle replacement demand on policy stimuli, the strong consumption in the energy storage field, and the continued pressure on exports. The demand in Q4 may improve periodically [72].

Core Viewpoint - The lead price has increased while the price of waste batteries has stabilized after a decline due to poor downstream demand and falling prices [1] Group 1: Lead Market Dynamics - Recent macroeconomic news has raised the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has positively impacted the non-ferrous metal market prices [1] - Lead futures have been driven up by bullish sentiment, resulting in price fluctuations and an overall increase [1] Group 2: Waste Battery Pricing - As of September 12, the mainstream price for waste electric vehicle batteries was reported at 9820 - 9900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 9860 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 175 yuan/ton or 1.74% from the previous week [1] - Some smelters have raised their recycling prices due to support from rising lead prices, although insufficient smelter operations limit the upward momentum for waste battery prices [1] - It is expected that the price of waste batteries will stabilize in the near term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is rated as neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] - Supply logic has marginally improved, which will support prices. The production of primary lead is under pressure, and secondary lead enterprises are in a continuous loss state. Some regions are stockpiling lead concentrates for winter, intensifying the raw material shortage. The consumption of lead-acid batteries has recovered, and the finished product inventory of some battery factories has decreased [6] - From a supply - demand perspective, domestic lead inventories have slightly increased. The long - position to inventory ratio of the SHFE lead contract for October is relatively high, and the spot discount has narrowed. Overall, the supply shortage of lead concentrates and the marginal improvement in consumption, along with the enhanced expectation of Fed rate cuts and domestic favorable policies, will support the price in the short - term. In unilateral trading, existing long positions should be held, and new long positions should wait for a good entry point. There are still opportunities for positive spreads in SHFE lead term contracts [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest - **Price**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The closing price of the LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1988, with a weekly increase of 0.00% [7] - **Spread**: The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread increased by 2.32 to - 41.16. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 30 to - 40 [7] - **Inventory**: The total lead inventory in five regions slightly increased from 66,100 tons on September 4th to 67,000 tons on September 11th. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5395 to 59,485 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 18,625 to 229,575 tons [6][7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 63,429 lots, an increase of 29,437 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 52,188 lots, an increase of 2762 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 6480 lots, an increase of 870 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6194 lots from the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrates**: The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate remained at - 90 dollars/ton this week. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton. Some regions are stockpiling lead concentrates for winter, intensifying the raw material shortage [6][7] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, with smelters in Henan under continuous maintenance and a smelter in Qinghai about to start maintenance. Secondary lead enterprises have been in a loss state, but the profit situation has started to improve, and some enterprises in Anhui and Hubei have resumed production [6] - **Scrap Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The price of scrap batteries has been under continuous pressure, and the smelting profit situation has started to improve. The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises shows a certain trend [38] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The consumption peak season of lead - acid batteries fell short of expectations, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises only increased seasonally. The consumption of lead - acid batteries has recovered, the finished product inventory of some battery factories has decreased, and the operating rate of large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows a certain trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles also presents corresponding data trends [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% month-on-month to 16,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 0.03% month-on-month to 16,850 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.12% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [14]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Not Alleviated, Import TC Decreased - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month-on-month at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the import lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of August 8, the smelter profit (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 72.5 yuan/ton [32]. 2.2 Primary Lead开工率 Increased to 68.07% - The primary lead smelter that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The total weekly output of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises is expected to be 52,075 tons [33][38]. 2.3 Recycled Lead开工率 Declined - As of August 15, the average price of waste batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The market - circulating supply of waste batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm. As of August 15, large - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 444 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 1,023 yuan/ton. As of August 14, the raw material inventory of recycled lead was 132,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 16,300 tons. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41%, and the weekly output decreased [46][49][56]. 3. Demand Side - The lead battery operating rate increased by 2.05 percentage points to 67.3%. From the terminal perspective, battery consumption is average, dealers are mainly consuming inventory, the peak - season effect has not yet appeared, and production enterprises are mainly producing based on sales [63]. 4. Import and Export - As of August 8, the refined lead export loss was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of August 15, the import profit was -579.41 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [73]. 5. Inventory - As of August 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,700 tons, with a slight increase. As of August 15, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 64,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of August 14, the LME inventory was 261,100 tons, showing a decrease [82][85].