1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the losses of secondary lead enterprises and their delayed resumption of production support the lead price, downstream demand is weak, and the pressure of imported lead inflow persists [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year. Domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic monthly processing fee in March was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160--140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no month - on - month change. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150--120 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [2]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The output of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 20, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 39.57%, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%. The price of waste batteries is firm, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have expanded, with possible production cuts and delayed resumption of production. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and refined lead imports are in a continuous profitable state, with overseas lead surplus pressure flowing into the domestic market [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces last week was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. The terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is mediocre. Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. Considering the consumption off - season in April, it is expected that the domestic lead ingot social inventory will stop falling and start to rise in mid - to - late April [4]. - **Spot**: As of the week of March 20, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 165 yuan. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 39.51 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 20, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons, with the LME inventory oscillating at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 23, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decline, at a moderately high level [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply is loose, with high - level oscillation of LME lead inventory and deep spot discounts. Overseas mine supply is gradually recovering, but the release period is mainly in the second half of the year. Although the import volume of lead ore has increased significantly year - on - year, the recovery of domestic lead ore supply is still limited, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage has not improved, with processing fees remaining at a low level. Primary lead enterprises have high production enthusiasm, and the operating rate of primary lead has steadily recovered. Currently, the price of waste batteries is firm, secondary lead enterprises have large losses, and although the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the resumption of production of some enterprises has been delayed. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and the domestic import profit has expanded, with overseas lead surplus pressure shifting to the domestic market. - Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. The second quarter is the off - season for lead consumption, demand will weaken month - on - month, and inventory may rise again. - Overall, the large losses of secondary lead enterprises, their delayed resumption of production, and production cuts support the lead price. However, downstream demand is general, and under the pressure of imported inflows, the low - level oscillation of lead is difficult to change. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary lead and the domestic inventory situation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is under pressure and continues to be weak due to limited improvement in downstream demand, high domestic inventories, and imports. However, the expanding losses and slow resumption of production in the secondary lead sector provide some support to the lead price. Attention should be paid to the resumption of secondary lead production and the progress after secondary lead is included in the delivery system [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic lead concentrate market is in high demand in winter, and the tight supply situation continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at low levels. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged month - on - month. The weekly domestic lead ore processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Primary Lead**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 13, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces increased by 4.11 percentage points to 56.97% week - on - week, and the supply continued to increase slightly. The by - product silver price is at a high level, and the smelting profit is considerable, so the production enthusiasm of primary lead enterprises is high [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In February 2026, the production of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. Affected by losses and environmental protection, the resumption of production is far below expectations. The weekly operating rate of SMM is only 29.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. Although large - scale smelters in Shandong and Jiangxi are expected to increase production this week, the high price of waste batteries and the low price of secondary lead have led to serious losses for secondary lead enterprises, and the situation of active production reduction and postponed resumption of production has increased. Starting from March 17, secondary lead will be officially included in the delivery system as an alternative delivery product, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the standard product. The pricing logic of Shanghai lead has changed to a dual - track pricing of primary and secondary lead, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation of the market [3]. - **Imports**: The Shanghai - London price ratio has rebounded, and the import of refined lead has been in a state of continuous profit. The overseas lead surplus pressure has flowed into the domestic market [3]. 3.3 Consumption - **Battery Enterprises**: Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. In March, major lead - acid battery enterprises have basically resumed normal production. The orders of electric bicycle and automobile battery enterprises mainly come from the post - Spring Festival replenishment of dealers, but the actual consumption improvement in the terminal market is limited. Dealers are not enthusiastic about purchasing, resulting in slow sales of new batteries and high inventory digestion pressure. Battery factories generally accumulate finished product inventories to a high level of 25 - 30 days. Battery factories are extremely cautious in purchasing lead ingots, and most enterprises only maintain a raw material inventory of 4 - 5 days, mainly using the "long - term order pick - up" or "on - demand replenishment" procurement model, and the spot transactions are extremely light [4]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory - **Spot**: As of the week of March 13, the domestic lead spot basis had a small premium, with a weekend premium of 95 yuan. The LME lead spot maintained a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 47.55 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 13, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 284,500 tons, and the LME inventory fluctuated at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,220 tons to 76,000 tons. As of March 12, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 77,700 tons, continuing to rise month - on - month and at an absolute high level in the past four years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with limited downstream demand boosting the price and high domestic inventory pressuring it. However, the firm price of waste batteries provides strong support for the lead price. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of recycled lead and the progress of recycled lead's inclusion in the delivery system [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The import volume of lead ore has increased month - on - month for two consecutive months, but the domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production of recycled refined lead in February 2026 was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. After the Spring Festival, the maintenance of primary lead enterprises ended, and the current precious metal prices are still high, so the profits of primary lead smelting enterprises are still considerable, and the production has increased month - on - month. After the Lantern Festival, the losses of recycled lead enterprises expanded, causing the originally expected centralized resumption of production in early March to be postponed to after mid - March. It is expected that the effective production of recycled lead will be concentrated in the second half of the month. If the losses continue, the resumption of production in late March may fall short of expectations, and the tight supply of recycled lead may support the lead price periodically. Currently, after the lead price has fallen, the price of waste batteries is relatively resistant to decline, and recycled lead enterprises are deeply in losses. In addition, the inclusion of recycled lead as a deliverable (implemented on March 17) will increase the deliverable supply in the futures market, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and refined lead is in a state of import profit, so the overseas lead surplus pressure will flow into the domestic market [3] 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - The weekly operating rate of battery enterprises has rebounded to 71.68%. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has entered a comprehensive recovery state. Most production enterprises have basically resumed production, and as the number of workers on the job increases, the output has gradually increased, driving the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises to rise significantly. Currently, the terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is average. The inventory of dealers is relatively high, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories is digested slowly, with relatively large inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, only maintaining long - term order pick - up or replenishing inventory as needed, and there is no concentrated stockpiling market [4] 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week of March 6, the domestic lead spot basis was slightly at a discount, and the weekend lead spot basis was at a discount of 5 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 42.91 US dollars [4] 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the weekly LME lead inventory decreased by 200 tons to 285,900 tons. The LME inventory fluctuated at a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,162 tons to 66,800 tons. As of March 10, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 73,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.12%, and it has increased for two consecutive periods, reaching an absolute high level in the past four years [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with lead futures showing a downward trend, reaching a low of 17,170.00 yuan/ton and a decline of approximately 2.33% [1] - The current market sentiment indicates a shift towards strong supply and weak demand, with primary lead production recovering as smelters in Hunan and Jiangxi resume operations [1] - The consumption side is experiencing a traditional off-season, with demand for lead-acid batteries not meeting expectations, leading to high inventory levels [1] Group 2 - The lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the supply of waste batteries is tight, providing some support for lead prices [2] - The overall production of primary lead is stable, while the recovery of recycled lead is limited due to environmental controls in some regions [2] - Battery sales are poor, leading to an accumulation of finished battery inventory, which may result in battery manufacturers reducing their operating rates [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the low domestic inventory provides some support. The Shanghai lead price may continue to show a volatile trend. Later, as the pressure of imported lead increases and inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, the upward pressure on lead prices will gradually increase. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continued. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead production increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the recycled refined lead production increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. Although there was still a supply gap of lead concentrate, the primary lead production resumed after maintenance, and the operating rate remained at a high level. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 37.6%, a week - on - week decline of 7.8%. In winter, there were frequent haze days, and environmental protection control potentially restricted the output of recycled lead smelters. The scrapping volume of waste lead - acid batteries decreased, and the tight supply of raw materials was difficult to ease. After the holiday, the price of waste batteries increased slightly, the profit margin of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and the uncertainty of environmental protection disturbances in winter was relatively large, so the supply of recycled lead remained at a low level. Some enterprises actively reduced production. For example, a medium - sized recycled lead smelter in the southwest region planned to reduce production by 20% - 30% in January to cope with raw material pressure. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - Last week was a holiday, and many battery enterprises had holidays, so the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises weakened. The automotive battery was approaching the traditional replacement peak season, while the traditional consumption peak season of electric bicycle batteries was coming to an end. At the beginning of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more cautious, and the production of electric bicycles declined. Coincidentally, some lead - acid battery enterprises had holidays during the New Year's Day holiday, and the weekly operating rate decreased. After the holiday, the terminal consumption was still weak. With relatively strong lead prices, downstream enterprises purchased on demand, the trading volume was relatively limited, the circulation in the spot market was average, and the discount widened slightly [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week ending December 31, the domestic lead spot basis discount widened, and the lead spot basis was a discount of 75 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 43.42 US dollars last weekend [4]. 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week ending December 31, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 6,975 tons to 241,900 tons. The LME inventory had declined for two consecutive weeks from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 909 tons to 28,004 tons. As of December 29, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 17,400 tons, and the inventory rebounded month - on - month, ending three consecutive months of decline, but it was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Jixianfei, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: January 4, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, but considering the low inventory, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between futures contracts [6]. - The supply of primary lead is affected by smelter maintenance, and the supply of recycled lead is restricted by raw material shortages. The demand side is weakening marginally, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading Aspect - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.14%. The closing price of LmeS-Lead 3 was 1,946.5 dollars/ton, with a decline of 2.65%. The LME lead premium decreased by 8.73 dollars/ton, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased by 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lead in five regions decreased this week, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The SHFE lead inventory and LME lead inventory also showed corresponding changes [3][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract increased by 19,189 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,146 lots. The trading volume of LmeS-Lead 3 increased by 602 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,194 lots [7]. 2. Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, consumption, and inventory of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates also changed over time [31][32]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead and recycled lead showed different trends in different years. The production of recycled lead was restricted by the tight supply of waste batteries [35][36]. 3. Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased, and the finished - product inventory days of enterprises and dealers increased. The export volume of batteries also showed different trends in different years [49]. - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead and the production of automobiles and motorcycles showed different trends in different years [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of lead is insufficient, and it may continue to fluctuate. The short - term supply pressure of lead is relieved, and the low domestic inventory continuing to decline is beneficial to lead prices. However, due to the year - end closing of downstream enterprises, weak demand, and the pressure of imported lead inflow, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum in the domestic market. But with the increase in costs, there is strong support at the bottom, so it may move in a fluctuating manner. Later, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was at the average level in recent years. Due to the high demand in the domestic lead concentrate market in winter, the tight situation at the domestic mine end intensified, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates further declined at low levels [2] - In December, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 20 US dollars. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also with no change week - on - week [2] Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead output increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the output of recycled refined lead increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year [3] - Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Some smelters in Hunan mentioned that environmental inspections affected the start - up of crude lead, but the electrolytic volume last week could maintain stable production. It is expected that the electrolytic lead output may decline slightly this week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan continued to increase production after the end of maintenance, and a small - scale smelter resumed production and slightly increased production. Other smelters maintained normal operation. A smelter in East China that had stopped production for maintenance has not resumed yet and is expected to resume at the end of December [3] - The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. Due to severe air pollution in many places in East and North China last week, environmental management was implemented. Anhui smelting enterprises significantly reduced production, and the regional operating rate decreased by 11.88% month - on - month; the operating rates in Henan and Jiangsu remained the same as last week. A recycled lead smelter in Inner Mongolia temporarily stopped production due to equipment part replacement and resumed normal production last week, and the regional operating rate rebounded, but local smelters said that the pressure on production due to raw material supply shortages still existed [3] - This week, the price of waste batteries continued to rise, the profit of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and combined with the large environmental protection disturbances of recycled lead, the supply pressure of recycled lead was relieved. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 74.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Since December, the new national standard for electric bicycles has been officially implemented in the terminal market, but the actual consumption has not improved significantly due to the increase in the weight of the whole vehicle. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the sales volume of the whole vehicle declined, dragging down battery consumption. Some lead - acid battery enterprises have slightly reduced production or planned to reduce production, dragging down the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises this week [4] - The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season. Except for some export - oriented enterprises with poor orders due to factors such as tariffs, the operating rates of other medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable. Near the end of the year, traders and battery enterprises are closing their accounts at the end of the year, and the inventory preparation of battery enterprises for the New Year's Day holiday is average. The spot trading is weak, and most downstream enterprises have stopped purchasing, resulting in low market transactions [4] Spot - As of the week of December 19, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 130 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 45.23 US dollars at the end of last week [4] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 23,875 tons to 258,600 tons, and the LME inventory continued to rise from a high level; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 4,352 tons to 27,900 tons. As of December 22, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places decreased to 19,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline, reaching an absolute low level in the past four years [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lead market is experiencing a transition from total supply-demand dynamics to structural differentiation, with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic factors and the energy transition on metal demand [1][2] - The lead price is expected to maintain resilience at the bottom due to low inventory levels and cost rigidity, despite weak demand growth [2] - The current lead market is characterized by a "weak reality" and "strong expectations," with supply constraints from winter production cuts and tight recycled battery supply leading to a rapid decline in social inventory to a five-year low [1] Group 2 - The spot market is in a stalemate, with smelters and battery companies engaged in deep price expectation negotiations, resulting in a significant reduction in scattered transactions [2] - The core contradiction in lead prices has shifted from total supply-demand to "structural shortages," where low inventory and cost rigidity provide bottom support against weak demand growth [2] - Short-term lead prices are expected to remain stable, with macro sentiment improving and supply constraints showing resilience, while terminal demand remains notably differentiated [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global lead concentrate market continues to be in a tight balance. Domestic TC remains low, and the negative processing fee range for imported ores is expanding. Mines are reluctant to sell, leading to passive production cuts at smelters. The domestic primary lead production rate is only 60%, and smelters in Hunan, Yunnan and other places are undergoing maintenance until January. Secondary lead production is limited due to the scarcity of waste battery supplies and limited profit recovery. Overall, the supply elasticity is insufficient. Although the demand is in the off - season for lead - acid batteries, the social inventory has continuously declined to a two - year low, and the spot premium is firm, providing support for prices. It is expected that the current lead price will maintain a volatile pattern. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.03/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of scrap black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On December 11, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,155 yuan/ton and closed at 17,155 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 34,885 lots, a change of -1,564 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 35,754 lots, a change of -3,561 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,220 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,070 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,120 yuan/ton, a 0.20% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 90 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract, and the discount narrowed further. In Hunan, the quoted price of lead smelters for the delivery brand was at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead. After some smelters sold out their inventory, the trading volume declined. As the lead price weakened, some downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices, but smelters generally delivered goods through long - term contracts, and the trading volume of spot contracts was relatively light. [2] Inventory - On December 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 21,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of December 11, the LME lead inventory was 235,475 tons, a decrease of 75 tons from the previous trading day. [2]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Lead" and dated December 9, 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lead have improved, and lead prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic lead ingot supply has tightened regionally, downstream consumption has improved, and with a positive macro - mood, lead prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded. The market is mainly dominated by long - term order purchases, and there is a strong wait - and - see attitude towards spot orders. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory pressure brought by delivery and position transfer, and be wary of lead prices rising and then falling [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 1.18% week - on - week to 17,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 1.17% to 17,290 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.41% to 2,009 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Lead Concentrate - **Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrate is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend [30] - **Smelter Profits**: As of November 28, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton [30] 2.2 Primary Lead - **Operating Rate**: The primary lead operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 65.92%. There are still some smelters with maintenance plans in the future, and it is expected that the primary lead operating rate will not increase significantly [31] - **Production and Maintenance**: The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in the week of December 5 was 46,560 tons, and it is expected to be 46,710 tons this week. Some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production after maintenance, while some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi had regular maintenance [36] 2.3 Recycled Lead - **Scrap Battery Prices**: As of December 5, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The scrap battery supply has tightened, and prices are expected to have limited decline [45] - **Smelter Profits**: As of December 5, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 363 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was 155 yuan/ton. Profits have improved, but attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price increases on profits [50] - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: As of December 4, recycled lead raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory was 1,480 tons and continued to decline. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 48.4%. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia may stop production due to raw material shortages, which may drive a significant decline in the local operating rate [53][56] 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Lead - Acid Battery Operating Rate**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 1.07 percentage points to 74.46%. Some large enterprises have improved their production enthusiasm, and the consumption of automotive lead - acid batteries has improved in December, driving the operating rate to rise [64] 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of November 28, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of December 5, the import profit was 157.21 yuan/ton, and the import profit window has opened [77] 5. Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of December 4, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 2.36 million tons, showing a decline; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 11,850 tons, a week - on - week increase. The social inventory decreased while the factory inventory increased [88] - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 5, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 34,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease; as of December 4, the LME inventory was 243,550 tons, also showing a decrease [93] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94]