有色金属周报(铅) 供需僵持，铅价区间整理 2025年8月19日 宏源期货研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。当前国产矿报价相对稳定，但 | | | | | 富含金银的铅精矿及高银含量的银铅矿TC仍有下行压力； | | | | | 进口矿方面，TC再度下调，部分供应商TC报价在-100至 | | | | | 80美元/干吨，但实际成交价多集中在-60至-70美元/干吨 | | | | | 附近，炼厂采购更加倾向国产矿。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：由于终端消费不佳，废电瓶回收量有限， | 原生铅开工逐步回升，再生铅供给 | | | | 废电瓶价格略有松动，但依旧坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端：前期检修的原生铅炼厂有所恢复，开工回升；再 | 因环保、亏损等因素，开工偏弱， | | | | 生铅方面，受成本倒挂及原料限制因素影响，开工偏弱。 | 需求端传统旺季尚未兑现， ...

1. Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Prices Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations [1] - Analyst: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with lead prices maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The consumption has not improved significantly, and the peak season performance is below expectations. Downstream enterprises only maintain rigid procurement, and the destocking of domestic social inventories is slow. However, the current domestic secondary lead smelters are all in a loss state, and the cost still provides some support for lead prices [4]. - Trading strategies include attempting high selling and low buying within the range for single-side trading, and temporarily observing for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: This week, the supply and demand of lead concentrates remained in a tight balance. The processing fee for domestic lead concentrates remained at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates decreased by 20 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The scrap battery market's scrap volume changed little, and smelting enterprises purchased on demand. The prices of lead-containing waste materials changed little compared to the previous period [4]. - **Smelting End**: The average operating rate of SMM's three-province primary lead smelters increased by 0.66% to 68.07% compared to last week. The SMM's four-province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 40.97%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week. The operating conditions of secondary lead smelting enterprises were relatively stable compared to last week, and the production of some enterprises fluctuated slightly with the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a slight decline in the regional operating rate [4]. - **Consumption End**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five-province lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, an increase of 2.05% from last week. The operating rate of lead battery enterprises recovered this week because some enterprises that took high-temperature vacations last week resumed normal production, but some enterprises continued to take vacations, with a maximum vacation duration of 10 days. Therefore, the operating rate has not returned to the level of late July. Next week, as other enterprises' high-temperature vacations end, the weekly operating rate will continue to rise [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from August 11 and an increase of 600 tons from August 7. The LME inventory on August 14 decreased by 4,700 tons to 261,100 tons compared to August 8 [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single-side trading can attempt high selling and low buying within the range; temporarily observe for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4.1.2 - 4.1.5 - The content mainly lists relevant data such as futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][15] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End 4.2.1 - 4.2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Lists data related to global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][25] 4.2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Mentions the prices of lead-containing waste materials and waste batteries, as well as the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but specific data analysis is not provided [32] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End 4.3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but specific data analysis is not provided [39] 4.3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but specific data analysis is not provided [46] 4.3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but specific data analysis is not provided [48] 4.3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, as well as the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but specific data analysis is not provided [56] 4.3.5 - 4.3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the cost, profit, operating rate, and production of secondary lead enterprises, but specific data analysis is not provided [59][68] 4.3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export, but specific data analysis is not provided [72] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End 4.4.1 Lead Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead battery enterprises, dealers' finished product inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished product inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided [79] 4.4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys and lead plates, but specific data analysis is not provided [82] 4.4.3 - 4.4.4 Automobiles, Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications - Lists data on automobile production, export, production structure, motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering, but specific data analysis is not provided [85][88]

Report Basic Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - No prominent contradictions, lead prices mainly range-bound [1] - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply of lead concentrates remains tight, and the TC of lead concentrates rich in gold and silver and silver-lead ore with high silver content still has downward pressure; the price of scrap batteries is slightly loose but still firm [3] - The production of primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased; in the secondary lead sector, affected by sewage inspections in Anhui and tight raw materials, the operating rate of some smelters has declined, and the supply has tightened regionally [3] - The demand side is cautious in purchasing. Terminal consumption is average, and electric bicycle dealers stocked up a lot in July, so they are currently consuming inventory. The price increase atmosphere in the wholesale market has faded [3] - The price of secondary lead is inverted with that of electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with high cost performance. As the production of electrolytic lead recovers, factory inventories accumulate while social inventories decline. Considering the transfer of futures deliveries, social inventories may accumulate again later [3] - It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.06% to 16,725 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.66% to 16,845 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic board) increased by 1.49% to 2,003.5 US dollars/ton [14] 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported lead concentrates decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to -65 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weak trend [30] - As of August 8, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market circulation of scrap batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm [46] 3.3 Supply Side - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased by 3.3 percentage points to 67.4%. The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered for settlement was 52,775 tons in the week of August 8, an increase of 4,100 tons compared to the week of August 1 [31][36] - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 41.1%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 46,600 tons, a decrease from the previous week [56] 3.4 Demand Side - The operating rate of lead-acid battery manufacturers decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 65.25%. High-temperature holidays in battery enterprises in Hebei, Zhejiang and other regions led to a significant decline in overall production [64] 3.5 Import and Export - As of August 1, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the import profit was -694.14 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77] 3.6 Inventory - As of August 7, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,100 tons, a decrease in inventory. Due to downstream buyers' caution and the transfer of lead ingots before delivery, social inventories decreased slightly while factory inventories accumulated [88] - As of August 8, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, a decrease from the previous period; LME inventory was 265,800 tons, also a decrease [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material - lead concentrate remains in short supply. The processing fees for domestic lead concentrates rich in gold, silver and high - silver content silver - lead ores have decreased, and the supply of imported lead concentrates rich in precious metals and small metals is tight with a significant decline in tender prices. The supply of scrap batteries is still tight, but as the lead price drops, the losses of secondary lead smelters widen, and the scrap battery prices have loosened [3]. - On the supply side, the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance are resuming production. For secondary lead, the start - up rate is slowly increasing with the expectation of the peak season, but the raw material price decline is less than that of the lead price, and the uncertainty of smelter start - up is high [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream shows a differentiated trend. The demand for electric bicycles is good, and enterprises are increasing their purchases of lead ingots. The export of lead - acid batteries for complete vehicles is affected by weak demand and tariffs, and the start - up rate has not improved significantly [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, the price of secondary lead is inverted compared with electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead. Although the inventory of secondary lead plants is decreasing, the overall social inventory of lead ingots is still increasing [3]. - Considering the support from the raw material side, it is expected that the short - term decline space of the lead price is limited, and the operating range is expected to be between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to the start - up situation of secondary lead smelters under the conditions of cost inversion and raw material shortage [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.19% to 16,550 yuan/ton week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 1.30% to 16,735 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of London lead decreased by 2.30% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text other than showing the historical basis data graphs. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton week - on - week, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight concentrate supply remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 25, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 101.5 yuan/ton [25]. - **Scrap Batteries**: As of August 1, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the lead price dropped, the losses of smelters widened, and the scrap battery prices slightly followed the downward trend [39]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The start - up rate of primary lead increased to 63.9% week - on - week. The total weekly output of major primary lead smelters increased from 46,875 tons in the week of July 25 to 51,325 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of production after maintenance in some regions [26][31]. - **Secondary Lead**: The start - up rate of secondary lead increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 47,500 tons, showing an upward trend. A large - scale smelter in Inner Mongolia resumed production and increased output, driving the significant increase in the start - up rate. However, the supply of scrap batteries is still tight, and some smelters said they would stop production when the raw materials are insufficient to support production [49]. 3.4 Demand Side The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries remained flat at 71.86%. The electric bicycle industry has entered the traditional peak season, and some enterprises have increased production and built inventories. Especially after the lead price dropped, the purchasing enthusiasm improved significantly. The production of automotive lead - acid batteries is mainly based on sales [55]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of July 25, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of August 1, the import profit was - 528.2 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 73,000 tons, showing an increase. Although the inventory of mainstream smelters decreased, the overall social inventory increased due to the phased increase in supply [75]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of August 1, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 63,300 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 275,300 tons, also showing an increase [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, export, import, consumption and inventory data of primary lead and secondary lead from August 2024 to June 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different months [79].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that while the peak season demand for lead is yet to materialize, due to limited supply growth and cost - side support, the lead market is likely to be weak with limited downside potential. Attention should be paid to whether the peak season demand will be realized later [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In June 2025, China's lead ore imports reached 118,026 tons, a 13.54% month - on - month increase, hitting a five - year high. The low levels of domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 dollars/dry ton, down 15 dollars month - on - month. The domestic weekly lead ore processing fee was 400 - 600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 dollars/dry ton, remaining flat week - on - week [2]. - **Supply**: In June, the national electrolytic lead output was 328,600 tons, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease but a 16.23% year - on - year increase. In July, after maintenance, production recovered, but the tightness of the ore end limited the production increase. The output of secondary lead in June was 228,800 tons, a 2.39% month - on - month increase but a 13.57% year - on - year decrease. The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces last week decreased by 1.1% to 65.8%. The operating rate of secondary lead increased by 2.4% to 37.9% last week. The import window of lead ingots remained closed [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly operating rate of SMM lead - acid batteries remained relatively stable. The anti - dumping investigation by the Middle East on China and Indonesia will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese or Chinese - funded lead - acid battery enterprises, which may drag down the battery export outlook. After the decline in lead prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and refineries' inventory decreased rapidly. However, the improvement in downstream battery consumption was limited, and dealers mainly digested inventory, waiting for peak season demand [4]. - **Spot and Inventory**: As of the week ending July 18, the basis of domestic lead spot to the active month rebounded slightly to near par. The LME lead spot remained deeply in contango, with a contango of 24.20 dollars last weekend. As of the week ending July 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 19,025 tons to 268,400 tons, reaching a five - year high; the SHFE lead weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons to 62,300 tons. As of July 21, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 65,800 tons, at a relatively high level in the past three years [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The LME lead inventory increased significantly at a high level last week and remained at a five - year high, with the spot in deep contango, indicating a loose supply - demand situation overseas. Although the lead concentrate imports in June increased to a multi - year high, the weekly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ore remained low, and the supply of lead concentrate remained tight. With the end of production cuts by smelters in Central China, the supply of primary lead may increase slightly later. The willingness to resume production of secondary lead is strong, but the loss situation has not improved, and raw material inventory remains low, so the expected increase in secondary lead is limited. - Currently, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery market remains stable. After the decline in lead prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and refineries' inventory decreased rapidly. However, the improvement in downstream battery consumption is limited, dealers are mainly digesting inventory, social inventory is accumulating, and peak season demand is yet to come [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Macro sentiment is favorable, and lead prices may consolidate strongly [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an incremental trend as primary lead smelters resume production after maintenance and secondary lead smelters'开工 increases due to improved raw material arrivals. Meanwhile, the consumption side is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and demand is expected to improve. Considering the strong support from the raw material side and positive macro sentiment, lead prices may be strong in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 1.33% to 16,700 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.49% to 16,820 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.27% to 2,011.5 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Primary Lead - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and TC quotes are weakly stable. Smelter profits fluctuated slightly, and as of July 11, smelter profits (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 93.5 yuan/ton [31] - Primary lead 开工 rate decreased to 65.82% month-on-month. Due to the price inversion of secondary lead and delivery and position transfer, primary lead factory inventories declined [32][36] - The total weekly production of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 47,015 tons, with some fluctuations due to regular maintenance and recovery [38] 3. Secondary Lead - As of July 18, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap batteries decreased due to recyclers' fear of falling prices, but the tight supply pattern did not improve substantially [45] - As of July 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -455 yuan/ton, and that of small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -680 yuan/ton [51] - As of July 17, secondary lead raw material inventory was 146,350 tons, and finished product inventory was 20,860 tons. The finished product inventory decreased due to improved downstream purchasing sentiment and long-term order delivery [55] - Secondary lead enterprises' 开工 rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 37.9%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing an increase. The 开工 rate increased due to improved raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters as scrap battery holders sold due to fear of falling lead prices [58] 4. Lead Batteries - The 开工 rate of lead batteries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 70.96%. As the traditional peak season approaches, some enterprises reported improved orders, but high temperatures in the north affected 开工 rates. Additionally, some lead battery enterprises may face tariffs of 25 - 70% due to anti-dumping investigations, leading to pre-tariff export rush [64] 5. Import and Export - As of July 11, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the import profit was -485.5 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [74] 6. Inventory - As of July 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 69,000 tons, showing an increase. The social inventory accumulated due to the large price difference between futures and spot and position transfer and delivery by holders [83] - As of July 18, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, showing a month-on-month increase, and LME inventory was 268,400 tons, also showing an increase [86] - The monthly supply and demand balance sheet shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to June 2025 [87]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Fundamental Remains Unchanged, Lead Price Maintains Range-bound Consolidation [1] - Report Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, some primary lead smelters have routine maintenance plans, and the start - up of secondary lead smelters is highly uncertain due to raw material issues. The demand side is also in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation in the lead market. It is expected that the price will maintain range - bound consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on lead prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots increased by 1.67% week - on - week to 16,775 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.98% to 16,945 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.94% to 1,992.5 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Primary Lead - **2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Unchanged, TC Stable**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of June 6, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 46.7 yuan/ton [25][31] - **2.2 Primary Lead Start - up Rate Increased to 70.79%**: Some regional smelters are about to enter the maintenance period, which may have a certain impact on production [32][36] - **2.3 Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelting Enterprises**: The total expected output this week is 50,185 tons, a decrease from the previous week. Some enterprises in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia are expected to have routine maintenance [38] 3. Secondary Lead - **3.1 Scrap Battery Price Firm**: As of June 13, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of scrap batteries has not improved. The losses of secondary lead smelters have narrowed slightly. As of June 13, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 393 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 614 yuan/ton [43][46][51] - **3.2 Secondary Lead Raw Material Inventory Decreased, Finished Product Inventory Increased**: As of June 13, the secondary lead raw material inventory was 128,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 25,000 tons. Considering price and quality factors, downstream buyers mostly purchase primary lead. The secondary lead factory inventory has continued to accumulate [53][55] - **3.3 Secondary Lead Start - up Rate Declined**: The secondary lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% week - on - week. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 35,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters in multiple regions have reduced production or intermittently shut down for heat preservation [56] 4. Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% week - on - week. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the start - up of lead batteries has returned to normal, and the increase mainly comes from the electric bicycle and automotive lead battery sectors [60][62] 5. Import and Export - As of June 6, the refined lead export loss was about 2,500 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the import profit was - 548.86 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [67][72] 6. Social Inventory - **6.1 Domestic Social Inventory Increased**: As of June 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 54,700 tons, showing an increase. The inventory continued to rise due to the widening of the spot - futures price difference and the delivery and position transfer of holders [76][80] - **6.2 SHFE Inventory Increased, LME Inventory Decreased**: As of June 13, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase; the LME inventory was 265,000 tons, showing a decrease [83][85] - **6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance situation has fluctuated in different months, with inventory changes also varying [86]

Market Overview - In May, lead prices initially rose but later faced downward pressure due to increased lead ingot inventories during the "May Day" holiday, followed by a rebound due to improved US-China trade policies [1] - The lead market is currently experiencing a weak oscillation trend as the domestic lead-acid battery market enters a consumption off-season, despite some macroeconomic positive sentiments being released [1] Supply Dynamics - Environmental inspections have delayed the resumption of some recycled lead smelting plants, leading to a strengthening of lead prices in early June [1] - In the first quarter, overseas lead concentrate production decreased by over 20,000 metal tons due to adverse weather and declining ore grades, but supply is expected to recover as weather improves and new mines come online [2] Domestic Mining and Smelting - Domestic mining profits remain reasonable, with northern mines resuming seasonal production, resulting in the highest operating rates in nearly three years [3] - The focus of smelting plants has shifted towards by-product profits, which may limit the increase in primary lead production despite stable lead concentrate supply [3] Recycled Lead Production - In the second quarter, demand for waste batteries is typically low, leading to a significant reduction in the supply of waste batteries and a corresponding decrease in recycled lead production [4] - Some recycled lead smelting plants are planning to resume production in early June, but the overall increase in recycled lead output is expected to be limited due to tight raw material supplies [4] Downstream Demand - The second quarter marks the beginning of the replacement off-season for lead-acid batteries, with inventory levels reaching the highest since 2017, up 27.63% compared to the five-year average [5] - Despite high growth rates in terminal sales data, domestic lead-acid battery market demand is unlikely to show significant improvement due to shorter stocking cycles and increased penetration of lithium batteries [5][6] Price Outlook - Overall, while recycled lead supply is slightly recovering and primary lead production remains stable, weak downstream demand is expected to limit upward price movements, leading to a potential shift towards a weak oscillation trend in lead prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price, with tight supplies of lead concentrates and waste batteries. The supply of electrolytic lead is increasing steadily, while consumption is in the off - season, which is the biggest negative factor for the lead market. Considering the tight supply of raw materials, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.50% to 16,400 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 1.42% to 16,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic trading) decreased by 1.50% to 1,964 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic lead price basis and the LME lead price basis showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [13][18]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, with no obvious change in the supply - demand situation at the mine end, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of May 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [25]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased to 69% month - on - month. Some smelters in different regions had maintenance plans or production recovery situations [26][31]. - The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered showed certain changes in different regions, with a total output of 50,185 tons in the week ending May 30 [33]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials + Poor Demand, Low Operating Rate of Secondary Lead - As of May 30, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton. The profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises were - 570 yuan/ton and - 787 yuan/ton respectively [41][46]. - As of May 30, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 146,300 tons, and the finished product inventory was 20,900 tons. Due to losses, smelters held back goods, resulting in inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down [50]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 3.3 percentage points to 40% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 43,200 tons. However, due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, the probability of smelters suspending production and maintenance in the future increased [53]. 3.4 Decline in the Operating Rate of Lead - Acid Batteries - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 2.21 percentage points to 79.45% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season consumption and holidays, the operating rate of batteries declined. Currently, the inventory of dealers has decreased, but they still maintain a cautious attitude and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [57]. 3.5 Closure of Import - Export Profit Windows - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 642.79 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Accumulation of Social Inventory - As of June 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 49,900 tons, an increase in inventory. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and month - end inventory checks, downstream purchases were weak, leading to the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory [72]. - As of May 30, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 46,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the LME inventory was 286,200 tons, also showing a decrease [75]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import and export, consumption, and inventory changes of primary lead and secondary lead from February 2024 to April 2025 [76].