Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed significant gains on August 25, with lead futures experiencing a slight upward trend, closing at 16,865.00 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1] Supply Side - According to Ruida Futures, primary lead smelters maintain a strong operating rate compared to recycled lead, benefiting from stable by-product revenues. However, fluctuations in lead prices have led some primary lead smelters to adjust production decisions, resulting in slight variations in primary lead output. The supply of recycled lead shows regional disparities, with tight supply of waste battery raw materials and insufficient confidence among smelters, leading to a generally tight supply situation [1] Demand Side - Changjiang Futures noted that lead concentrate prices fell by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, while spot lead ingot prices dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the recycling price of used batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton. In July, domestic imports of lead ore significantly increased compared to June, with refined lead imports experiencing exponential growth. However, production by downstream enterprises, particularly in the automotive sector, decreased by 29.84 million units in July compared to June, putting downward pressure on spot lead prices [1] Inventory - According to Xinhuh Futures, as of last Thursday, social inventory of lead ingots continued to decline by 0.11 million tons to 69,900 tons. Last Tuesday, LME lead inventory saw a significant delivery of 22,000 tons, and domestic import losses have rapidly narrowed [1] Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures anticipates that with expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and a relatively loose domestic lead supply situation, primary lead production is expected to recover. However, the production of recycled lead remains moderate, and there is insufficient order volume from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to a short-term stabilization in lead prices [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View The report focuses on the lead market, tracking its fundamentals and mentioning relevant news. It suggests paying attention to the consumption performance of lead during the peak season [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day, while the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at $2,017/ton, down 0.98% [1]. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 31,556 lots, a decrease of 20,905 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 6,377 lots, a decrease of 761 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 52,444 lots, a decrease of 1,035 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 144,891 lots, a decrease of 1,790 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$33.62/ton, down $11.04/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 55,130 tons, an increase of 2,229 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, an increase of 11,575 tons [1]. - **Other Indicators**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and the LME lead cancelled warrants were 51,925 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons [1]. News In June, China's social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [1]. Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of trend intensity being an integer within [-2, 2] [1].